"Brandon Roy" rule won't be used on Brandon Roy (and that's good)

[Rastapopoulos]

Remember the last time there was an Amnesty Clause? They called it the Allen Houston rule? And it wasn't used on Houston himself? Well this time the Amnesty rule has already been referred to as the Brandon Roy rule and Bill Simmons has already mused about him being bummed for a week or two then becoming a great third guard on a contender.

And just like last time, I predict that it won't be used on its namesake. Why? Because what would be the point? The answer is to clear money off the cap. But why do that? We're not going to have enough cap room to sign anyone for a long time anyway, and if we're gambling on Oden, we might as well gamble on Roy. It's not like using it saves Paul Allen money - using it COSTS him money, because you have to pay him AND his replacement.

And that's good, because it SHOULDN'T be used. As we saw in that immortal fourth quarter, Roy can still produce in stretches. Do we really want to see him do that for the Lakers (his fave team as a kid, with his fave player)? Or Miami? And what would it say about Portland as a franchise?

The only way keeping him is a bad thing is if he is completely deluded about his new limitations and demands a larger role or more mpg than his abilities are worth.

 

[MarAzul]

What the heck are talking about? Brandon isn't risk. It's a known fact that is doesn't have a meniscus in either knee. Larry Miller knew it when he re-signed him, so did Brandon and now everyone else does. He can't deliver on what he contracted to do, that's not a risk. What other 2 guard plays in the league without a meniscus?

I suppose the Blazer might not cut him though, after all they re-sign him knowing his condition. Sigh!

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

I don't want a world where Brandon Roy doesn't retire as a Portland Trailblazer.

 

[Blaze01]

If they don't use the amnesty clause on him then they are fucking idiots....

Look, I would not mind having Roy coming off the bench at a reasonable $5-7 million deal, but that isn't possible now is it? They would have to cut him first and then try and resign him to ANOTHER deal at which point Roy would probably act all indignant that POR cut him loose and then he would go and resign with Miami, Lakers, Dallas etc....for about that cost or likely lesee money....

and I expect he will be a useful player for a few years, coming off the bench or playing limited minutes, but there is NO WAY in hell POR should hold onto him at what he is currently making and scheduled to make for the next few years...

$15...$16...$17...$19!!!! million per year....

Like I sai, they are IDIOTS if they don't use the amnesty clause on that contract...Roy just is not and won't ever be again that type of player.....

 

[Pinwheel1]

If they don't use the amnesty clause on him then they are fucking idiots....

Look, I would not mind having Roy coming off the bench at a reasonable $5-7 million deal, but that isn't possible now is it? They would have to cut him first and then try and resign him to ANOTHER deal at which point Roy would probably act all indignant that POR cut him loose and then he would go and resign with Miami, Lakers, Dallas etc....for about that cost or likely lesee money....

and I expect he will be a useful player for a few years, coming off the bench or playing limited minutes, but there is NO WAY in hell POR should hold onto him at what he is currently making and scheduled to make for the next few years...

$15...$16...$17...$19!!!! million per year....

Like I sai, they are IDIOTS if they don't use the amnesty clause on that contract...Roy just is not and won't ever be again that type of player.....

Your post would be accurate if the Blazers didn't have to pay him the $15...$16...$17...$19!!!! million per year with the amnesty rule, but the point of the thread was they have to pay him either way. (Plus a replacement) Big difference IMO

 

[e_blazer]

If they don't use the amnesty clause on him then they are fucking idiots....

Look, I would not mind having Roy coming off the bench at a reasonable $5-7 million deal, but that isn't possible now is it? They would have to cut him first and then try and resign him to ANOTHER deal at which point Roy would probably act all indignant that POR cut him loose and then he would go and resign with Miami, Lakers, Dallas etc....for about that cost or likely lesee money....

and I expect he will be a useful player for a few years, coming off the bench or playing limited minutes, but there is NO WAY in hell POR should hold onto him at what he is currently making and scheduled to make for the next few years...

$15...$16...$17...$19!!!! million per year....

Like I sai, they are IDIOTS if they don't use the amnesty clause on that contract...Roy just is not and won't ever be again that type of player.....

The rule that's being proposed would still require the Blazers to pay Roy everything that he's owed under his contract. They'd have to waive him, pay him, and would only get credit for 75% of the savings off of the salary cap and luxury tax. The salary cap savings wouldn't do anything for the Blazers since they'll still likely be over the cap if they re-sign Felton, Wallace, Batum and maybe Oden. The only thing waiving Roy would do is to save PA luxury tax payments. If they make those as stiff as they've been talking about, it's still possible that the Blazers waive Brandon...which would suck because it would mean that they get no benefit from him and still have to pay him.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

We don't have Bird rights on Felton and Oden could walk away for nothing. If that happens we get rid of Roy we would be very much under the cap.

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/Portland.htm

 

[e_blazer]

We don't have Bird rights on Felton and Oden could walk away for nothing. If that happens we get rid of Roy we would be very much under the cap.

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/Portland.htm

I still think that the Blazers find a way to re-sign both Oden and Felton. That said, yeah, there are way too many unknowns at this point to make a reasonable prediction as to what the Blazers will do regarding Brandon.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I still think that the Blazers find a way to re-sign both Oden and Felton. That said, yeah, there are way too many unknowns at this point to make a reasonable prediction as to what the Blazers will do regarding Brandon.

I'm sure that's the #1 question they are asking potential GM candidates.

That and would you be willing to suck Vulcan cock?

 

[The_Lillard_King]

If Allen is the owner and looking to stay as owner, good chance Blazers keep Roy.

If Allen is looking to sell team or if Blazers have 80% of the other owners in the league, they cut Roy.

An example of the big difference Allen makes. Really only a large market team (or Paul Allen) can consider taking on that kind of luxury tax.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Wow.

Many of you are still thinking in terms of the current soft cap. Hard cap = Roy must go...period.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Wow.

Many of you are still thinking in terms of the current soft cap. Hard cap = Roy must go...period.

Good point. Hard cap and it is a no brainer, got to dump Roy.

But if you have a hard cap to be phased in over the next 5 years, what do you do with Roy?

(Players saying they will never agree to hard cap)

 

[Rastapopoulos]

You can't institute a hard cap that is lower than some teams' current payrolls. If there were to be something LIKE a hard cap
(a) we've already missed at least one season, because the players aren't going to cave on that for a WHILE
(b) I think the owners already backed away from it anyway
(c) If not (b), it would have to be phased in over a few years - maybe the years of Roy's deal.

BUT if the "cap" took the form of a really punitive luxury tax, then yes, I can see the Blazers being effectively forced to cut Roy. But would that really be something Paul Allen would be holding out for? How does that benefit him?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

We don't have Bird rights on Felton and Oden could walk away for nothing. If that happens we get rid of Roy we would be very much under the cap.

Three possible timelines:
(a) the lockout ends soon enough to have a season, but you're required to use the amnesty effectively before the season starts. In that case the Blazers wouldn't know if they're going to lose Felton and/or Oden. Which way do they gamble?
(b) as above except the window for using the amnesty extends until the offseason. Then I think the Blazers DEFINITELY keep Roy, for the season, at least.
(c) the lockout wipes out the entire season, and Oden and Felton are FAs before another game. Then the Blazers can try to sign Felton and Oden, and if they succeed, keep Roy, if they fail, fuck it, cut Roy and wipe the slate clean.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

You can't institute a hard cap that is lower than some teams' current payrolls. If there were to be something LIKE a hard cap
(a) we've already missed at least one season, because the players aren't going to cave on that for a WHILE
(b) I think the owners already backed away from it anyway
(c) If not (b), it would have to be phased in over a few years - maybe the years of Roy's deal.

BUT if the "cap" took the form of a really punitive luxury tax, then yes, I can see the Blazers being effectively forced to cut Roy. But would that really be something Paul Allen would be holding out for? How does that benefit him?

If he is going to sell the team, the Blazer franchise is a lot more valuable with a hard cap in place.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Three possible timelines:
(a) the lockout ends soon enough to have a season, but you're required to use the amnesty effectively before the season starts. In that case the Blazers wouldn't know if they're going to lose Felton and/or Oden. Which way do they gamble?
(b) as above except the window for using the amnesty extends until the offseason. Then I think the Blazers DEFINITELY keep Roy, for the season, at least.
(c) the lockout wipes out the entire season, and Oden and Felton are FAs before another game. Then the Blazers can try to sign Felton and Oden, and if they succeed, keep Roy, if they fail, fuck it, cut Roy and wipe the slate clean.

I'll bet you a beer that Roy has played his last game as a Blazer.

 

[The Sebastian Express]

I'll bet you a beer that Roy has played his last game as a Blazer.

Agreed. If there is an amnesty clause that clears at least 75% of his salary from the cap, there is no way they can't use it. If Greg doesn't pan out (I'm allowed to hope) then in 2012 or 2013 we'd have one chance to get LaMarcus paired with someone going into his prime. With Brandon and his salary that isn't possible. And Brandon just doesn't have the health to be the second best player on a championship team anymore.

 

[Natebishop3]

There is no reason to keep Roy on this roster eating up cap space for the next four years. No reason at all. I would much rather re-sign Gerald Wallace, keep LMA, and work on adding a third All-Star to keep up with the big boys.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Agreed. If there is an amnesty clause that clears at least 75% of his salary from the cap, there is no way they can't use it. If Greg doesn't pan out (I'm allowed to hope) then in 2012 or 2013 we'd have one chance to get LaMarcus paired with someone going into his prime. With Brandon and his salary that isn't possible. And Brandon just doesn't have the health to be the second best player on a championship team anymore.

Sebastian Express will pay for half of that beer if we are wrong!

(Thanks for helping me cover my bets!)

 

[Rastapopoulos]

There is no reason to keep Roy on this roster eating up cap space for the next four years. No reason at all. I would much rather re-sign Gerald Wallace, keep LMA, and work on adding a third All-Star to keep up with the big boys.

1. How many players with healthy knees can do this even in their dreams:

[video=youtube;pJjeZ4Scm9E]

2. Tim Hardaway's ENTIRE CAREER on the Miami Heat was played with no meniscus in his knees.
3. Chris Paul has at least one knee that's bone on bone, and he still had the highest PER of anyone in the playoffs.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

If he is going to sell the team, the Blazer franchise is a lot more valuable with a hard cap in place.

Prove it! If Allen was going to sell the team, I think it would've made a lot more sense to sell it BEFORE the lockout, don't you think? I hardly think a years-long lockout can be good for franchise values in the near term, and I doubt Allen plans that long term given his health history.
In fact, given his health history, I doubt he makes calculations like the one you're suggesting at all!

 

[illmatic99]

BRoy played for like 20 games this year on his surgically repaired knees. He needs time to adjust. I fully support keeping him.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I'll bet you a beer that Roy has played his last game as a Blazer.

If I win I get this beer:

If you win you get this one:

 

[SlyPokerDog]

If I win I get this beer:

If you win you get this one:

Nah, has to be a beer on tap at a local bar or the Rose Garden under $12.

Bet?

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Prove it! If Allen was going to sell the team, I think it would've made a lot more sense to sell it BEFORE the lockout, don't you think? I hardly think a years-long lockout can be good for franchise values in the near term, and I doubt Allen plans that long term given his health history.
In fact, given his health history, I doubt he makes calculations like the one you're suggesting at all!

Prove what?

You asked how a hard cap could benefit PA and I gave an example. Now you want me to prove that example? All I did was ANSWER your question.

And if any any of us thinks we can predict what PA will do next with his fortunes . . . they need to step back and check themsleves because they don't know what they are talking about!

 

[PapaG]

We don't have Bird rights on Felton and Oden could walk away for nothing. If that happens we get rid of Roy we would be very much under the cap.

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/Portland.htm

The Blazers would also be very much under being at all competitive at that point. Welcome to the rebuild, with LMA being the best trade asset. How much is Batum going to cost; that's another question as well.

 

[Natebishop3]

1. How many players with healthy knees can do this even in their dreams:

[video=youtube;pJjeZ4Scm9E]

2. Tim Hardaway's ENTIRE CAREER on the Miami Heat was played with no meniscus in his knees.
3. Chris Paul has at least one knee that's bone on bone, and he still had the highest PER of anyone in the playoffs.

Remind me real quick, who won that series? What good is one game out of five? The guy is getting paid max money to have one good game out of five? I don't think so. There's other guys out there who can serve as a "Microwave" role player. Roy was paid handsomely because he was an All-Star. He's not an All-Star anymore. He's not even a starting shooting guard anymore. You don't pay a bench player 84 million. You people need to stop thinking of Roy as he was and start thinking of Roy as he is.

 

[PapaG]

Remind me real quick, who won that series? What good is one game out of five? The guy is getting paid max money to have one good game out of five? I don't think so. There's other guys out there who can serve as a "Microwave" role player. Roy was paid handsomely because he was an All-Star. He's not an All-Star anymore. He's not even a starting shooting guard anymore. You don't pay a bench player 84 million. You people need to stop thinking of Roy as he was and start thinking of Roy as he is.

The point is that if Oden/Felton/decent starting PG can be signed after this year, then cutting Roy really does nothing to improve the roster, since the money will have already been spent and the team would be at the cap, or even over it. At that point, it becomes about paying tax money for Roy, plus his salary, and then replacing him with either a rookie or a veteran getting the minimum on top of the "savings" for Roy.

Rasta is all over this one, IMO, and I agree with him. The only way Roy will be waived is if the team is in a total rebuild.

 

[Natebishop3]

The point is that if Oden/Felton/decent starting PG can be signed after this year, then cutting Roy really does nothing to improve the roster, since the money will have already been spent and the team would be at the cap, or even over it. At that point, it becomes about paying tax money for Roy, plus his salary, and then replacing him with either a rookie or a veteran getting the minimum on top of the "savings" for Roy.

Rasta is all over this one, IMO, and I agree with him. The only way Roy will be waived is if the team is in a total rebuild.

Maybe the team should be in a total rebuild. I'm not convinced that this team has the talent to compete with the best in the west. We have some good players, but very little depth and we have nobody to replace what Roy brought to the table pre-injury. We don't have a closer. Aldridge is an All-Star quality talent, and Wallace can be a very good player as well, but outside of those two I'm not really sold on Batum, Felton, or even Oden. I think we should deal some guys, build around Aldridge and look at adding a legit second scorer next to LMA.

 

[PapaG]

Maybe the team should be in a total rebuild. I'm not convinced that this team has the talent to compete with the best in the west. We have some good players, but very little depth and we have nobody to replace what Roy brought to the table pre-injury. We don't have a closer. Aldridge is an All-Star quality talent, and Wallace can be a very good player as well, but outside of those two I'm not really sold on Batum, Felton, or even Oden. I think we should deal some guys, build around Aldridge and look at adding a legit second scorer next to LMA.

Well, that's a completely different argument. Perhaps you should start a thread about it, but the point of this thread is that it is unlikely Roy will be waived under the proposed amnesty if the idea is to try and win a few playoff series. I don't often agree with Rasta, but he makes sense in this thread in his hypothetical scenario where Felton and GO are re-signed.

If the idea is to rebuild, then LMA is by far the best asset to acquire the picks/players to do so. I'm not sure anybody else on the roster can get more than equal value at this point, and that includes Gerald Wallace.