Bust a Scoot?

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There are raw young players that pass the eye test, and there are those that don't. Telfair didn't - he was super quick but he had no change of speed and was exposed quickly. Jerryd Bayless was supposed to be The Shit in summer league, but if you watched his games all he did was bull to the hoop and shoot FTs. Even ROYs like Tyreke Evans and Michael Carter-Williams were obviously not destined for greatness.

Does Scoot pass the eye test? Because I ain't seeing it. And I didn't see it BEFORE he was drafted, either, before the "hindsight 20/20 comments." I mean, I will be very happy to be proved wrong, because he does seem to be a great kid (kind of the mirror image of Ben Simmons, whose game as a rookie I really liked but who always sucked personality-wise), so fingers crossed. But, again, if we pass on an actual star PG because we have Scoot it will be the Telfair/Chris Paul fuckup all over.
 
THE HCP said:
Whoever thinks/thought Scoot could shoot as well as Pritchard doesnt’ understand this game bro…..
AND
You are comparing a player who played almost 120 college games and is 26 years old to a 20 year old who had less than TWENTY…..20 G-League games. Quite sure Scoot would get Scooped up first my guy. Keep sending the hate his way though.
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The majority of people you refer to would have also picked Scoot over Amen Thompson. I wouldn't trust their opinion for shit.
 
FlashWad said:
I blame scouts for evaluating the g league so high. Worse than division 3 basketball.
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This is why so many discounted the Thompson twins in Elite Overtime. They didn't trust the competition and the twins were a little older.

It's good to see Kuminga and Green elevate their games as of late.
 
wizenheimer said:
yeah, 6 games is a crazy-small sample size to look at....BUT...looking at their 'full' seasons to this point:

FG%: Amen .539....Scoot .372
3ptFG%: Amen ..157....Scoot ..295
2ptFG%: Amen .611....Scoot .409
FT%: Amen .664....Scoot .822

eFG%: Amen .551....Scoot .420
TS%: Amen .577....Scoot .477
FG% at Rim: Amen .739....Scoot .491
points/shot: Amen 1.32....Scoot 1.07

PER: Amen 17.5....Scoot 8.6
FT Rate: Amen .333....Scoot .283
Reb Rate: Amen 15.4%....Scoot 6.4%
Assist Rate: Amen 16.1%....Scoot 27.0%
Turnover Rate: Amen 15.8%....Scoot 18.5%
Winshares/48: Amen +.139....Scoot -.051
BPM: Amen +1.7....Scoot -6.6
VORP: Amen +0.9....Scoot -1.5

while it's not a clean sweep across the board for Amen, it's pretty close.

Amen has demonstrated the flaw(s) we pretty much knew about and that's shooting touch. He's been terrible at shooting three's and his FT's needs a lot of work. But for a rookie, even with those flaws, he has posted pretty good shooting efficiency: 53.9% FG's; 61.1% 2ptFG's; 55.1% efG and a 57.7% TS. And he absolutely crushes Scoot in FG% at the rim; a 73.9% conversion rate is excellent for a wing, especially considering that's where he takes half of his shots

Amen's PER would rank 2nd on the Blazers behind Ayton. His rebound rate of 15.4% is quite solid...better than Josh Hart last season. AND, he's showing the defensive ability that was predicted as his strength. He leads Houston in DBPM at +2.6; and his defensive rating is 5.7 points better than his team. That's exceptional for a wing. Meanwhile Scoot ranks 13th on the Blazers in DBPM among 'rotational' players, only ahead of Simons. And his defensive rating is 3.5 points worse that the team

Amen's defense might become even more valuable if the NBA follows thru on the intention of giving more leeway to defense

I was actually surprised to see Amen's marks. I guess I assumed he was still struggling like he did his first month or so. Other than his 3p and FT shooting, I think Amen is posting really good marks for a rookie. If I was a Houston fan I'd be really happy with him

I still hold out hope for Scoot but I will admit I have a hell of a lot more doubts about him than I did 4 months ago
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Still rooting for Scoot's success but I was one of the highly adamant "Amen over Scoot" guys and Amen is going along, just as I predicted. Though, I was hoping he would have more playing time to actually average out his Per 36.

The sad thing for Portland is that Amen addresses EVERY major weakness the Blazers have suffered for the past few years - rebounding, POA defense, secondary ballhandler that can make plays. And for a rookie, he's quite elite at these traits.

Amen has traits reminiscent of Ben Simmons, Luka Doncic, and Brandon Roy. Not saying he'll be a superstar but some players, when healthy, are able to impact the game with well rounded skills and intangibles. His advanced stats suggest as such and he's already a great defender and rebounder as a rookie with good IQ that I really thought he could've been Scottie Pippen to Sharpe's "MJ". Like a Pippen, I can see Amen improving upon himself and becoming an 18-23ppg/7/7 guy with DPOY impact.

By that, I don't think people understand that you don't really win championships with short PGs. Steph was the only one in modern history. But dynamic SG+all around two way SF combos? MJ-Pippen, Kobe-Odom, Wade-Lebron, and probably Brown-Tatum. Heck, we may even include Middleton-Giannis, perhaps. That's 10 championships right there.

The smart thing to do is go after Cody Williams now. He's probably not as talented as Amen but if the Blazers want to replicate success, it's going to come from that SG-SF combo rather than emphasizing the PG-SG combo that did not win anything in the 90s or 2010s. Then, hope the Blazers can get Ace Bailey, Cooper Flagg, Cam Boozer, or maybe AJ Dybantsa in the following drafts to address the rebounding weakness.
 
MrDraftGuy said:
Still rooting for Scoot's success but I was one of the highly adamant "Amen over Scoot" guys and Amen is going along, just as I predicted. Though, I was hoping he would have more playing time to actually average out his Per 36.

The sad thing for Portland is that Amen addresses EVERY major weakness the Blazers have suffered for the past few years - rebounding, POA defense, secondary ballhandler that can make plays. And for a rookie, he's quite elite at these traits.

Amen has traits reminiscent of Ben Simmons, Luka Doncic, and Brandon Roy. Not saying he'll be a superstar but some players, when healthy, are able to impact the game with well rounded skills and intangibles. His advanced stats suggest as such and he's already a great defender and rebounder as a rookie with good IQ that I really thought he could've been Scottie Pippen to Sharpe's "MJ". Like a Pippen, I can see Amen improving upon himself and becoming an 18-23ppg/7/7 guy with DPOY impact.

By that, I don't think people understand that you don't really win championships with short PGs. Steph was the only one in modern history. But dynamic SG+all around two way SF combos? MJ-Pippen, Kobe-Odom, Wade-Lebron, and probably Brown-Tatum. Heck, we may even include Middleton-Giannis, perhaps. That's 10 championships right there.

The smart thing to do is go after Cody Williams now. He's probably not as talented as Amen but if the Blazers want to replicate success, it's going to come from that SG-SF combo rather than emphasizing the PG-SG combo that did not win anything in the 90s or 2010s. Then, hope the Blazers can get Ace Bailey, Cooper Flagg, Cam Boozer, or maybe AJ Dybantsa in the following drafts to address the rebounding weakness.
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None of the wings you just listed had a shot as fugly as Amen. He’s a truly god awful shooter, and in a league that prizes three point shooters, he is a very bad one.
 
Scoot had a good second half tonight. He needs to start stacking good halves together.

Murray looked decent, too. And Rupert, I think for as raw as he is, I think he was a steal. He looks like he can play.
 
Natebishop3 said:
None of the wings you just listed had a shot as fugly as Amen. He’s a truly god awful shooter, and in a league that prizes three point shooters, he is a very bad one.
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I wouldn't call him "god-awful" as a shooter. 73.9% at the rim and 47.4% in the 3-10' zone are really good marks, and that's where he takes 74% of his shots

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but he is extremely limited as a shooter at this point; and that may be a career long limitation

he's actually fairly similar to Ben Simmons as a shooter:

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but there are some differences that may lead to Amen having a much better outcome. Start with average shot distance. Simmons' career mark is 4.3 feet and 5.5 feet as a 21 year old rookie. Amen's average distance is 2-3 feet further. That might not seem significant but from watching that stat over the years it is. Couple that with FT%: Amen is over 67% while Ben was 56% as a rookie and I'd think that average-shot-distance+FT% is a positive sign for Amen. Obviously it's not a big neon sign; it's more a proceed-with-caution sign; but it is a bit hopeful

if Amen can't improve dramatically from distance it puts a ceiling on his offensive upside. He's not nearly the passer that Simmons was (past tense?), but he does appear to have quite a bit of untapped upside as a passer and facilitator

but Amen definitely has flashed plenty of upside as a defender; more importantly as a wing defender. He looks like a future all-NBA-defense candidate who possesses better efficiency than Brandon Roy did as an interior shooter. That's a pretty impressive start
 
Phatguysrule said:
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that's a very misleading stat. There was only 1 PG taken in the lottery, and only two taken in the top-24 of the draft: Scoot and Keyonte George. The only other PG taken in the 1st round was Marcus Sasser and he's only averaged 17 minutes and started 1 game

so then, if you compare Scoot to Keyonte George

upload_2024-3-23_10-36-24.png

there is not a lot statistically that recommends Scoot over George...especially not some weird cherry-picked stat threshold. The only 'wait-a-minute' number is on defense suggesting George is a complete sieve
 
wizenheimer said:
that's a very misleading stat. There was only 1 PG taken in the lottery, and only two taken in the top-24 of the draft: Scoot and Keyonte George. The only other PG taken in the 1st round was Marcus Sasser and he's only averaged 17 minutes and started 1 game

so then, if you compare Scoot to Keyonte George

View attachment 64075

there is not a lot statistically that recommends Scoot over George...especially not some weird cherry-picked stat threshold. The only 'wait-a-minute' number is on defense suggesting George is a complete sieve
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True. Still, rookies putting up 20pt and 10ast games isn't an overly common occurrence...

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-rookies-to-score-20-points-and-10-assists-in-a-single-game

rqNPaVV.jpeg
 
Scoot is going to be really good. His rookie season has humbled him and given him a glaring blueprint of what he needs to work on in the off season. Shooting from deep and developing a left handed game to balance out his ability to finish at the rim. He's had some great games and some wtf games but he's got a lot to figure out to get where he wants to be. I'm not worried about him. Sharpe I worry about a bit. I hope we see him play before the off season with the young guys.
 
wizenheimer said:
that's a very misleading stat. There was only 1 PG taken in the lottery, and only two taken in the top-24 of the draft: Scoot and Keyonte George. The only other PG taken in the 1st round was Marcus Sasser and he's only averaged 17 minutes and started 1 game

so then, if you compare Scoot to Keyonte George

View attachment 64075

there is not a lot statistically that recommends Scoot over George...especially not some weird cherry-picked stat threshold. The only 'wait-a-minute' number is on defense suggesting George is a complete sieve
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........ Amen was billed as a point guard coming into the draft?
 
I’m still hopeful Scoot turns it around and becomes a decent player I would actually be ecstatic. But I’m pessimistic, so we will see what happens.
 
FlashWad said:
I’m still hopeful Scoot turns it around and becomes a decent player I would actually be ecstatic. But I’m pessimistic, so we will see what happens.
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I don't know how we can consider a guy who puts up multiple 20 and 10 games in the NBA not a "decent player".

He's already decent, IMO. He's already more explosive than most NBA players.

He's only going to get more accurate and make fewer mistakes as time goes on and he adjusts to the length, speed, and athleticism of NBA defenses...
 
Phatguysrule said:
I don't know how we can consider a guy who puts up multiple 20 and 10 games in the NBA not a "decent player".

.
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because that's a gauge without context? for instance, he had a 33 point game....but he needed 31 shots to get that 33 point game

* he has a PER of 9.2 when the NBA average is 15.0
* he has a TS% of .483 when the NBA team median is .580
* he has a eFG% of .427 when the NBA team median .542
* he has a winshare/48 of -.044 when the NBA average is +.100
* he has a BPM of -6.2 when the NBA mark for an average player on an average team is 0.0

* his assist/turnover ratio is 1.60 which is terrible for an PG, and still poor for a rookie PG

* out of 188 players tracked by bbref, Scoot ranks 186th in turnover rate; 188th in BPM; 188th in winshares/48; 184th in PER
* out of 195 players tracked, Scoot ranks 195th in TS%
* out of 562 NBA players tracked, Scoot ranks 562nd in VORP

obviously, all those stats have missing context as well. They don't differentiate between C's, SF's, and PG's. They don't really gauge the quality of teams or teammates or rotations or factor injuries. They don't gauge by age or experience

but statistically, Scoot has been terrible. That seems a fairly objective reality. A couple of 20 & 10 games don't change that

I'm not saying there isn't hope for the guy as the PGOTF; eyeball gauges offer some hope. I am saying there's nothing hopeful found in his season stats this year
 
wizenheimer said:
because that's a gauge without context? for instance, he had a 33 point game....but he needed 31 shots to get that 33 point game

* he has a PER of 9.2 when the NBA average is 15.0
* he has a TS% of .483 when the NBA team median is .580
* he has a eFG% of .427 when the NBA team median .542
* he has a winshare/48 of -.044 when the NBA average is +.100
* he has a BPM of -6.2 when the NBA mark for an average player on an average team is 0.0

* his assist/turnover ratio is 1.60 which is terrible for an PG, and still poor for a rookie PG

* out of 188 players tracked by bbref, Scoot ranks 186th in turnover rate; 188th in BPM; 188th in winshares/48; 184th in PER
* out of 195 players tracked, Scoot ranks 195th in TS%
* out of 562 NBA players tracked, Scoot ranks 562nd in VORP

obviously, all those stats have missing context as well. They don't differentiate between C's, SF's, and PG's. They don't really gauge the quality of teams or teammates or rotations or factor injuries. They don't gauge by age or experience

but statistically, Scoot has been terrible. That seems a fairly objective reality. A couple of 20 & 10 games don't change that

I'm not saying there isn't hope for the guy as the PGOTF; eyeball gauges offer some hope. I am saying there's nothing hopeful found in his season stats this year
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There are no players who put up 20 and 10 (of any stat) against NBA competition multiple times per season who are less than decent. Especially rookies.

This is silly, IMO.
 
Phatguysrule said:
There are no players who put up 20 and 10 (of any stat) against NBA competition multiple times per season who are less than decent. Especially rookies.

This is silly, IMO.
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fine...you're focusing on Scoot's best 3 games and gauging him on that 3 game sample. I was looking at aggregated numbers from all 52 of his games
 
wizenheimer said:
fine...you're focusing on Scoot's best 3 games and gauging him on that 3 game sample. I was looking at aggregated numbers from all 52 of his games
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The ability to repeat that performance means it's not a fluke. He has the ability. I'm simply taking umbrage with idea that he's not a decent player.

I think that's pretty harsh criticism. He very clearly is a decent player. He's a threat to get 20 and 10. You don't say that about players who suck or don't belong in the NBA.

He's a rookie PG with no college experience. You are supposed to look at his good games and forgive the mistakes and bad games. I'm not saying he's going to be a star (though he might). But he's at the very least a "decent" player.
 
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