OT Coronavirus: America in chaos, News and Updates. One million Americans dead and counting

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BigGameDamian said:
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IIRC, they were a little high in their last projection but maybe I'm thinking of another organization (yeeeeesh there have been a bazillion predictions!)

anyway, they estimate a current 4% total of infected nationally. That would be around 13 million and that looks kind of credible to me, although maybe a bit high. That's about 8 times the official number of positive cases. That would be a mortality rate around 0.75%. Again, that seems credible to my ignorant eyes.

in order to achieve effective herd immunity, a minimum of 70% of the population would have to have been infected, although for Covid I've seen 80% as the number. With a 0.75% mortality rate, a 70% target would leave 1.73 million dead. With an 80% rate, that would be 1.98 million dead. That's a high price to pay for herd immunity. And the problem with the herd immunity path is we don't know how long people would remain immune. It could be 4 years or it could be 3 months.
 
yankeesince59 said:
He said, "I didn't want to give the press the pleasure of seeing me wearing a mask".




What a fucking jack wagon.
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This is the truest definition of 'cutting off you're nose to spite you're face' I have ever seen.

WOW.
 
The World Health Organization said lessons could be learned from Sweden — now its daily deaths are soaring
Published: May 22, 2020 at 9:32 a.m. ET
By
Archie Mitchell

Sweden was seen as a model for countries tackling coronavirus without economic disruption
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...y-deaths-are-soaring-2020-05-21?mod=home-page
Sweden’s policy of keeping schools, restaurants and businesses open while practicing social distancing to prevent the coronavirus pandemic from spreading was seen as bold, but now it has the highest deaths per capita in Europe from COVID-19.
 
This video will give you a really good understanding of the statistics involved in modeling the pandemic and, basically why both sides in the political debate about reopening the economy are talking out of their backsides.
 
e_blazer said:
This video will give you a really good understanding of the statistics involved in modeling the pandemic and, basically why both sides in the political debate about reopening the economy are talking out of their backsides.
Click to expand...

It was good and I agree with all that he said. But, you could tell he was targeting the heard immunity argument.
 
e_blazer said:
This video will give you a really good understanding of the statistics involved in modeling the pandemic and, basically why both sides in the political debate about reopening the economy are talking out of their backsides.
Click to expand...

i watched the vid, and agree it is localized concerning risk/reward decisions, but there still needs for a centralized roll as overseer to be able to put the brakes on, if data suggests that it negatively impacts the greater less localized population, especially in concerns regarding travel from and into areas of breakout and/or the 'economic opportunity' zones. that guidance for the average person to form an informed opinion on the potential consequences of opening up really isn't there because we are still learning about the virus. the politicization negatively impacts any guidance suggested even. placing a higher value on capital by protecting business at the risk to labor without further compensation as a reward to determine if the costs are worth it to them is a problem in my opinion with an 'open it up' position that is not being addressed.

ps still need the ability of more, and faster testing before consumers will be willing to confidently re-engage in our new normal. i am in favor of phased reopening as the best management tool, and for the most part it has proven a success where it has been utilized with regard to risk with the thumb on the risk side of the balance.
 
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Hoopguru said:
COVID-19 Weekly Report, May 19, 2020
Oregon's weekly report - check out zip codes
As testing goes up the percentage of positives has gone down. Check out the comments about A systematic.
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you need to be cautious about this supposed drop in positives with more testing. For one thing, that's simply not true nationally when it comes to mortality rate. We're still hovering over a 5.9% mortality rate. We were at a 5.2% rate when we had tested 11,000 people/million. Now we are over 41,000 per million and have a 5.94% mortality rate

but perhaps a bigger factor is the extreme politicization of the CDC by the trump white house and how more and more often the data from the CDC is suspect and hard to trust. In this case:

"As of Friday, the CDC reported that America has done over 13 million tests. On a per capita basis, that still puts the United States in the #39 position—behind the U.K., Italy, Germany, and most of Europe, way behind nations like Iceland and the U.A.E. who are determined that everyone is going to get tested. Still, 13 million tests is a lot of tests, even if it did take months to get there, and even if just one Chinese province intends to do 11 million in just 10 days.


Only it seems that those numbers may be a little less than they seem on the surface. Because on Thursday the CDC acknowledged that the number of tests being reported combines the PCR results looking for active cases, with antibody tests looking for people who have been exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. By combining those two values, the CDC is including test results from tests whose accuracy is still in doubt. And it could also be badly distorting the nation’s ability to conduct additional tests.

But the CDC action comes at a time when there is high concern over the ability of the United States to conduct a large number of cases in a short period. In order to support the reopening already underway in most states, it will require a very high level of testing ability—one that can be deployed again and again to spot active cases and support isolation and case tracing. By mixing together tests of all sorts, including those that were done to determine the percentage of people exposed across broad areas with no followup on individual cases, the CDC has made it seem as if the ability to test had greatly expanded, even though the value of all these tests was far from equal. It also appears that some of these tests were conducted across an extended period before they were added to the total, inflating the apparent increase in daily tests.


The mixing up of the two types of tests almost certainly contributed to the impression that the percentage of positive tests has rapidly declined over the last few days. That apparent decrease has been used both as an indication that the epidemic was somehow being brought under control, and that testing had expanded to the extent that it was broadly available. Neither of these impressions may be accurate, thanks to the mingling of PCR and antibody tests.


The CDC also seems to have made no effort to winnow out those tests whose results are suspect. Tests such as those used in two California counties generated national stories when they indicated that the number of people who had been exposed to COVID-19 may be far higher than expected. But it’s far more probable that these tests have a level of false positives that make their use in this kind of public survey questionable. These tests have still not been approved by the FDA.


Both antibody and PCR tests have value. But they are different tests for different purposes. Determining whether or not someone has been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 has critical value, especially as it seems increasingly likely that those with significant numbers of antibodies to the virus have obtained immunity to COVID-19 for a period of months or years. But determining who currently has COVID-19 and represents a potential vector of the disease is also critical. Putting both types of tests in one hat, and including the totals of tests that have not been approved along with tests that were conducted for purposes other than determining the status of an individual patient, inflates the number of valid tests that have been conducted and misrepresents the ability of the U.S. to conduct testing going forward."

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...a-could-create-misleading-picture-of-pandemic

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...-inflating-America-s-testing-totals#read-more
 
While Trump cronies got early release due to Corona virus, last nigh Chris Hayes referenced a man who has been in prison for four years awaiting trial on drug charges. Not convicted of anything. He is paraplegic, has a respiratory condition, and tested positive for Corona virus. His family twice applied for emergency release and were turned down although he has not been convicted. His bail is $650,000. His family does not have the money, he's poor, black, and has no powerful friends, so he still is in jail, with courts shut, with high probability he won't survive.
 
e_blazer said:
This video will give you a really good understanding of the statistics involved in modeling the pandemic and, basically why both sides in the political debate about reopening the economy are talking out of their backsides.
Click to expand...

I'm going to dispute your assertion a bit, at least on a general level

* on one side, you have those saying re-open nearly all phases of the economy right now. That side is fairly dismissive of concerns about the impact on the health care system and people lives. And also dismissive of advice from experts on epidemiology and public health. The economy is a much higher priority than public health

* on the other side, and I'd think people like Jay Inslee, Gavin Newsome, and Kate Brown are quite representative of that other side, you have people willing to open the economy cautiously and rely on data and numbers to determine the level of caution to attach to policies. Keep social distancing guidelines in place until it's more apparent what impact lifting restrictions has on the rate of spread, and what burdens those new policies place on the system.

where is the "talking out of their backsides" part about proceeding with caution?

sometimes, the 'both-sides' argument is false
 
Trump's going to do a white House briefing. What happened to the blonde lady that was quick on her feet?
 
On my way to the hospital to get my heart checked today.....will probably be tested for the virus...if I end up having it and die in the hospital I thought I'd just say..."fuck Donald Trump" here and "vote"....wish me luck …..
 
wizenheimer said:
I'm going to dispute your assertion a bit, at least on a general level

* on one side, you have those saying re-open nearly all phases of the economy right now. That side is fairly dismissive of concerns about the impact on the health care system and people lives. And also dismissive of advice from experts on epidemiology and public health. The economy is a much higher priority than public health

* on the other side, and I'd think people like Jay Inslee, Gavin Newsome, and Kate Brown are quite representative of that other side, you have people willing to open the economy cautiously and rely on data and numbers to determine the level of caution to attach to policies. Keep social distancing guidelines in place until it's more apparent what impact lifting restrictions has on the rate of spread, and what burdens those new policies place on the system.

where is the "talking out of their backsides" part about proceeding with caution?

sometimes, the 'both-sides' argument is false
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The point is, without testing, all policy decisions are being made in the dark. Policy decisions to open up are ridiculous because there's no proof we won't immediately fall into a second wave. Decisions to keep the economy shut down, are certainly more likely to keep the disease shut down, but at a horrible expense to the economy and to people who have no savings, and these decisions are being equally made without knowledge of what the true important stats of the disease are.
 
yankeesince59 said:
Kayleigh McEnany, Trump's newest propaganda minister...wow.
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Taking a job with the Trump administration pretty much guarantees you a multi million dollar tell all book deal when he's gone.....the lines are going around the block to get this kind of access
 
SlyPokerDog said:
97992238_10221552173304657_2665127898381287424_n.jpg
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Hey, didn't he win the Nobel prize for peace as well as write and sing that great song "Everybody Must Get Stoned"? How come he's better looking in this picture? Dude use to be kind of ugly.
 
the Sweden experiment seems to be failing spectacularly. It's been held up as the template for balancing the pandemic and the economy, so how is it doing in those two areas compared to it's neighbors who have implemented policies Sweden has not:

upload_2020-5-22_12-27-4.png

ok then, it's insane how high it's rate is compared to it's Scandinavian neighbors

it looks a little better when compared to all of Europe and the US:

upload_2020-5-22_12-29-47.png

but 3 weeks ago it's deaths/million was well under 100. It is skyrocketing up the list

but enough of that, the goal was to protect it's economy. How's that working out? How does Sweden's expected economic contraction compare to other nations in Europe?

upload_2020-5-22_12-33-59.png

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/cor...ntract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...ter-and-conservatives-want-more-of-that-death
***************************************

Sweden's stated goal...the official policy....was to weather the storm and develop herd immunity in a few weeks. That's when 70-90% of the population has developed immunity. So then, where is Sweden now in reaching that goal of 70-90%?

"Sweden has revealed that despite adopting more relaxed measures to control coronavirus, only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed the antibodies needed to fight the disease by late April.
The figure, which Sweden's Public Health Authority confirmed to CNN, is roughly similar to other countries that have data and well below the 70-90% needed to create "herd immunity" in a population."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html

these are really interesting developments that cut strongly against the talking points coming out of the white house and fox news (and some posters here). It also strongly refutes the arguments that the virus is widespread and has infected a lot more people than reported. The virus doesn't seem to give a shit about talking points.

It also is a very strong argument that it isn't government policies that are killing economies, it's the behavior of people as they hunker down and try to avoid the virus. Doesn't seem like too many people are volunteering to be soldiers against Covid by overtly risking exposure and developing immunity.
 
wizenheimer said:
It also is a very strong argument that it isn't government policies that are killing economies, it's the behavior of people as they hunker down and try to avoid the virus. Doesn't seem like too many people are volunteering to be soldiers against Covid by overtly risking exposure and developing immunity.
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This is a very good and important point. Trump, certain governors and protestors can go on and on about how the economy needs to re-open and allow people to go back to normal--but no "re-opening" matters if most people continue mostly staying at home and don't congregate and don't do in-person non-essential things. The economy is still going to struggle along.
 
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