but history tells us it's too early to make a bust call.
STOMP
that's not really what 'history tells us'
history tells us that a lot of players that look like busts as rookies actually were busts. The rookie seasons were predictive
history also tells us that some players that looked like busts as rookies developed into decent players. The rookie season was not predictive. I don't know what the percentage of the total is rookie-bust=career-bust, but I'd imagine it's quite a bit a l higher than 50-50. In other words, I'd estimate if you're calling Yang a bust at this point, history is on your side, not against it. Also have to factor draft slot
rookie seasons:
Robin Lopez (15th pick; 20 years old): PER 11.6.....TS% .566....reb rate 11.2%....winshares/48> .083....BPM
-3.6
Dereck Lively (12th pick; 19 years old): PER 18.6.....TS% .728....reb rate 16.0%....winshares/48> .183....BPM +0.5
Meyers Leonard (11th pick; 20 years old): PER 12.1.....TS% .596....reb rate 12.3%....winshares/48> .097....BPM
-3.3
Joel Freeland (30th pick; 25 years old): PER 9.3.....TS% .435....reb rate 16.0%....winshares/48> .022....BPM
-5.4
Jusuf Nurkic (16th pick; 20 years old): PER 14.8.....TS% .483....reb rate 18.7%....winshares/48> ..069....BPM
-2.8
Mason Plumlee (22nd pick; 23 years old): PER 19.0.....TS% ..670...reb rate 14.5%....winshares/48> .176....BPM +1.0
Clint Capela (25th pick; 20 years old): PER 12.1.....TS% .409....reb rate 22.1%....winshares/48> .019....BPM
-5.4
Rudy Gobert (27th pick; 21 years old): PER 12.9.....TS% .507....reb rate 20.6%....winshares/48> .045....BPM
-2.7
Nikola Vucevic (16th pick; 21 years old): PER 14.3.....TS% .462....reb rate 16.8%....winshares/48> .109....BPM
-2.2
Deandre Jordan (35th pick; 20 years old): PER 14.1....TS% .585....reb rate 17.8%....winshares/48> .079....BPM
-3.3
Yang Hansen (11th-->16th pick; 20 years old): PER 3.7....TS% .413....reb rate 11.9%....winshares/48>
-0.078....BPM
-9.6
I was just looking at C's taken after the 10th pick in the first round. There were some actual busts taken over the last 15 years or so, but I didn't see adding them as very useful
to find C's who performed as poorly as Yang as rookies I would have had to consistently reach into the 2nd round and also look at undrafted bigs. Doing that would yield a bunch of guys with short and uneventful NBA careers. Of course, investing a 48th pick or a 2-way contract on a big is not the same as investing a lottery pick.
I'm not really sure what a "project big man" means