Dame's long 3 is a good shot

[stampedehero]

I often see criticism of Dame bombing a 3 point shot early in the shot clock. I did some simple analytics to see if it's really a bad shot.

I took a look at Dame's 3 point shooting from 28+ feet. I limited that to 34 feet or less to exclude desperation heaves. Dame's is a career 77/222 or 34.7% from that distance. http://nbasavant.com/apps/compare.php

Let's see what that works out to in points per possession. 34.7% of a made 3 is 1.04 points per shot. But on a miss there is about 20% chance of an offensive rebound. That yields an extra 0.13 possessions. Conservatively that is worth another 0.13 points. That's 1.17 points per possession.

How good is that? Warriors and Rockets are at around 1.12 points per possession. Blazers are at 1.03. Blazers in a half-court set are surely even worse than that. Extrapolating to 100 possessions that's 117 to 103.

You could argue that Dame's long 3 hurts transition defense. Maybe. Maybe not. There are pluses and minuses. Long 3's take a long time to reach the basket. That gives the offense a bit more time to prepare for defense. Dames quick 3 has 0% chance of a TO. TO's are terrible for transition D. Missed layups and paint shots often leave the shooter under the rim. Sometimes on their back. That results in 5 on 4's, dunks and wide open 3's the other way. Personally, my observation is that 3 point shots do not hurt team D.

Really, what is overlooked about that shot is that it has no chance of a TO. When you factor TO% (probably at least 10%) into "working the ball for a higher percentage shot" it starts to make more sense why that can be a good shot.

You must have Aced Statistics in school.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Okay. SO Per:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats.html

The NBA league average 2pt% is .468%

The NBA league average 3pt% is .364%

Lets say team "A" only shoots twos and team "B" only shoots threes and each team is able to get up 100 shots in a game (simple math)

team A makes 47 shots for a total if 94pts.

team B makes 36 shots for a total of 108.


Now lets narrow it down some more. How many 3pt shots does the average team take? 28.8....so 29.

So now in reality, team A would be shooting 71 twos and 29 threes. This would equate to the following:

71 twos at 47% shooting = 33 shots made for 66 pts. 29 threes on .36% shoot = 11 shots made for 33 points.

This gives Team A a total of 99 points. They STILL lose to a team that only shoots 3's and can shoot the league average.

This doesn't account for the TO's that our defense would provide as well as us probably getting up many more shots than the other team because of us shooting quick threes and them taking time to get it to the rim more.

So with these numbers? What am I missing? What is the point of even getting to the rim?

Youre missing defensive adjustments fo only 3 point shots.
Youre missing the fact that the majority of 3 point shots are taken by the best 3 point shooters

Good info though. Definitely interesting

 

[Boise Blazer]

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Okay. SO Per:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats.html

The NBA league average 2pt% is .468%

The NBA league average 3pt% is .364%

Lets say team "A" only shoots twos and team "B" only shoots threes and each team is able to get up 100 shots in a game (simple math)

team A makes 47 shots for a total if 94pts.

team B makes 36 shots for a total of 108.


Now lets narrow it down some more. How many 3pt shots does the average team take? 28.8....so 29.

So now in reality, team A would be shooting 71 twos and 29 threes. This would equate to the following:

71 twos at 47% shooting = 33 shots made for 66 pts. 29 threes on .36% shoot = 11 shots made for 33 points.

This gives Team A a total of 99 points. They STILL lose to a team that only shoots 3's and can shoot the league average.

This doesn't account for the TO's that our defense would provide as well as us probably getting up many more shots than the other team because of us shooting quick threes and them taking time to get it to the rim more.

So with these numbers? What am I missing? What is the point of even getting to the rim?

In the modern NBA, the purpose of the 2 is to set up the 3....

 

[HailBlazers]

No. No it's Not. Okay Maybe, Good Not so much.

 

[WillG]

No it's a terrible shot, is usually early in the shot clock & with defense in his face.
If he was a 40% + 3ball shooter, then you could live with it.

As it is - would you build your team around a player, whose marquee shot is the 3ball, when he shoots 36%.
ok, how about when a third of them are hoisted from way further out from 3line at a lower percentage.

It's a terrible go-to move, imo is a selfish shot, and frustrates me as a fan that he has free reign to hurl long bombs with no regard for the rest of the offensive players or system.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Bump

 

[SIeepwalker]

nothing has changed, the relatively open long 3 is still good, the one fading away with two guys in his face is still bad.

But I don't mind a heatcheck if he's hot and has made a few good look in a row

 

[swish3]

This thread supports my assertion that the Blazers need more swish3 shooting. Dame has found a productive idea in being a few feet behind the arc, and his scoring results prove him correct. Considering recent highly accurate shooting from Dame, which appears to be better than 40% from distance in this winning streak, the long swish3s are excellent strategy.

My analysis in the Blazers need more 3 point scoring further argues that making 13 more swish3s and 13 less 2-pointers demonstrates the power of swish3 scoring and taking more swish3 attempts.

 

[tlongII]

Yes, but what about Meyers?

 

[blazerkor]

I like Dame's game and that includes the 30 footers he shoots. In years past all I wanted him to improve was his paint scoring and he's done that, which has improved his free throw opportunities. I think Dame's game offensively is pretty much beyond reproach. Now his defense is catching up and this year he's a better than average defender. He's not the player on the team that needs to be nitpicked to death.

 

[swish3]

The Blazers swish3 shooting is the powerful force that can break through to the WCF. Along with Dame, CJ, Chief, and Shabazz, Meyers can add swish3s when brought in at strategic times to further extend the scoring from swish3s to 45 or more points per game. The 60 points from swish3s in the Knicks game is particularly satisfying.

 

[BBert]

This thread supports my assertion that the Blazers need more swish3 shooting. Dame has found a productive idea in being a few feet behind the arc, and his scoring results prove him correct. Considering recent highly accurate shooting from Dame, which appears to be better than 40% from distance in this winning streak, the long swish3s are excellent strategy.

My analysis in the Blazers need more 3 point scoring further argues that making 13 more swish3s and 13 less 2-pointers demonstrates the power of swish3 scoring and taking more swish3 attempts.

Only 13? How about 15?

15 swish3s. Definitely 15.

 

[Strenuus]

The Blazers swish3 shooting is the powerful force that can break through to the WCF. Along with Dame, CJ, Chief, and Shabazz, Meyers can add swish3s when brought in at strategic times to further extend the scoring from swish3s to 45 or more points per game. The 60 points from swish3s in the Knicks game is particularly satisfying.

god it's pure gold.

 

[swish3]

BBert, I'm with you that 15 swish3s is ideal. Statistics point to 45 points via swish3s as a predictor of wins. My thread on 15 or more swish3s raised this point. Thanks for the thought.

 

[LuckyShot]

It's a good shot when his feet are under him, he's balanced, and the shot is in rhythm. For that to occur he of course needs space to get the shot up. When he rushes it is when you can tell before it leaves his hand that it has almost no chance of going in. His balance is all off and then his shooting motion gets too quick and it's just ugly. It's like a golf swing when you get too quick in the transition and then throw the rest of your body sequence off and try to save the shot with your hands. Golfers will know what I'm talking about anyway...

 

[SIeepwalker]

Meyers can add swish3s when brought in at strategic times

Ok but when is it strategically adequate to put him in ?

I say when we're up 30 points

 

[BrianFromWA]

This thread supports my assertion that the Blazers need more swish3 shooting. Dame has found a productive idea in being a few feet behind the arc, and his scoring results prove him correct. Considering recent highly accurate shooting from Dame, which appears to be better than 40% from distance in this winning streak, the long swish3s are excellent strategy.

My analysis in the Blazers need more 3 point scoring further argues that making 13 more swish3s and 13 less 2-pointers demonstrates the power of swish3 scoring and taking more swish3 attempts.

I don't think your "analysis" is what's getting you mocked, b/c it's not new. Morey and the like have been talking about it for a decade. HOU's been implementing it for almost 3 years now. Stotts openly game-plans against it on D.

Your assertion, however, that Meyers is the horse you wanna ride to implement this analytically-based strategy is the fundamental flaw, here. Moreso than the poor statistical reliance upon 17 shots to form a conclusion as reactionary as yours was.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Only 13? How about 15?

15 swish3s. Definitely 15.

5 minutes to Wapner.

 

[StumptownHoliday]

So youre saying being able to swish a shot from anywhere on the court at any time is a good thing? Well i'llllllllll be

 

[swish3]

The 13 more swish3s instead of the 13 2-pointers was in reference to the Knicks game as I posted yesterday (Mar 7) in the 'Blazers need more 3 point scoring thread (quoted below). Finding a way to get more swish3s per game is the strategy. It is great that Dame has found another way to do it.

The Blazers scored 20 (of 33) swish3s surpassing 7 (of 19) by the Knicks, even though making only 15 of 48 (31%) two pointers, for a decisive win! And that represents 60% swish3 shooting, which shows that it can be done. And it shows the scoring power of the 3 pointer, as the Knicks made 28 of 64 (44%) 2-pointers. Making 13 less 2-pointers but 13 more swish3s is a winner.

That was excellent swish3 shooting by Dame, CJ, Chief, and Shabazz. Let's see if we can use the swish3 scoring strategy to outdo and defeat the Warriors. This kind of basketball is exhilarating!