Did the Blazer roster improve, get worse, or stay about the same as last season?

[oldfisherman]

We are far enough into this season to have some opinions on our new players. How well did Olshey do last off season?

The team salary this season is more than double last season’s. We all know why, and we all probably agree the Blazers are not twice as good. Let’s leave money out of the player comparisons and only rate talent.

Did the talent level on the Blazer's roster improve, get worse, or stay about the same as last season?

1/3 of the roster was replaced, 5 players.

Cliff Alexander vs Jake Layman
Tim Frazer/Brian Roberts vs. Shabazz Napier.
Gerald Henderson vs. Evan Turner
Chris Kaman vs Festus Ezeli
Louis Montero vs Tim Quarterman

Rate anyway you like. Rate each individual player comparison, and/or as a total group comparison.


Yeah, I thought about making a poll, but came up with too many options. If anyone can help me with ideas on how to make this topic into a poll, we can add one.

 

[Orion Bailey]

improved in some areas. Weakened in others. Puts us right about the same.

 

[BigGameDamian]

The Blazers didn't get much worse they just didn't get much better. While a lot of the other teams in the West got a lot better. This is what mediocre teams get when they have too many untouchables.

 

[blue9]

Stayed about the same. Only one rotation player changed - Henderson to Turner. There has been some internal improvement (Dame, CJ, Harkless) and some internal regression (Davis, Aminu). But the guys who improved were already really damn good (Dame, CJ) or haven't improved enough (Harkless), so the improvement hasn't had much impact. And the guys who regressed were never that good to begin with.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I just looked at those and it reminded me that all we really added was Evan Turner. kind of sad. The rest of those guys are pretty much irrelevant and it's a wash with Henderson and Turner; maybe it's an advantage that Turner can handle the ball, but maybe we would be better if we had got a good second string PG instead of Ezeli. BTW, Jarret Jack is holding workouts for clubs interested.

 

[Minstrel]

The team talent improved very slightly--Turner is better than the outgoing players. The problem is that price of the roster scaled way out of proportion with the improvement and the team lost the illusory gains of the second half of last season.

 

[TBpup]

The amount of improvement (which remains to be seen if they even finish above 44 wins) is minimal compared to the massive increase in cost per win. Not the type of ROI one would expect or even hope for.

Cliff Alexander vs Jake Layman - Layman's career consists of basically one massive outburst in his 1st quarter ever and then 2-3 minutes at a time every since about once a week. I don't think Alexander ever had 17 points in a month let alone a quarter so....Advantage Layman.
Tim Frazer/Brian Roberts vs. Shabazz Napier - We have to remember what bff Timmy was in Portland and not what he has done this year. He was a pass first PG who couldn't really shoot but did a good job of getting teammates involved. I'll skip over Roberts to get to Napier who is almost the opposite of Frazier. He is a shoot first PG who rarely finds teammates even when they are wide open but does have the ability to score. Advantage BFF
Gerald Henderson vs. Evan Turner - The biggest contributors out of this list. Henderson was more of a veteran presence and had some attitude that seems to roll down to the younger players. Turner is a more dimensional player but has been on such the negative side of +/- (getting better) that it's tough to put him ahead of Gerald. Advantage Hend0.
Chris Kaman vs Festus Ezeli - One played very little and was a big locker room presence. One may never play. Advantage Sasquatch
Louis Montero vs Tim Quarterman - Best trash talker on the team and owner of a 1.000% shooting percentage in last year's playoffs versus the guy who so far has outscored #1 pick Ben Simmons 16-0. Advantage Montero

 

[Orion Bailey]

The amount of improvement (which remains to be seen if they even finish above 44 wins) is minimal compared to the massive increase in cost per win. Not the type of ROI one would expect or even hope for.

Cliff Alexander vs Jake Layman - Layman's career consists of basically one massive outburst in his 1st quarter ever and then 2-3 minutes at a time every since about once a week. I don't think Alexander ever had 17 points in a month let alone a quarter so....Advantage Layman.
Tim Frazer/Brian Roberts vs. Shabazz Napier - We have to remember what bff Timmy was in Portland and not what he has done this year. He was a pass first PG who couldn't really shoot but did a good job of getting teammates involved. I'll skip over Roberts to get to Napier who is almost the opposite of Frazier. He is a shoot first PG who rarely finds teammates even when they are wide open but does have the ability to score. Advantage BFF
Gerald Henderson vs. Evan Turner - The biggest contributors out of this list. Henderson was more of a veteran presence and had some attitude that seems to roll down to the younger players. Turner is a more dimensional player but has been on such the negative side of +/- (getting better) that it's tough to put him ahead of Gerald. Advantage Hend0.
Chris Kaman vs Festus Ezeli - One played very little and was a big locker room presence. One may never play. Advantage Sasquatch
Louis Montero vs Tim Quarterman - Best trash talker on the team and owner of a 1.000% shooting percentage in last year's playoffs versus the guy who so far has outscored #1 pick Ben Simmons 16-0. Advantage Montero

The only thing I disagree on is the Hendo/Turner. You are judging the second half of Hendo with the first half of Turner. I believe Turner will far exceed Hendo's second half contributions.

 

[Minstrel]

Chris Kaman vs Festus Ezeli - One played very little and was a big locker room presence. One may never play. Advantage Sasquatch

Apparently, Ezeli has been a big locker room presence.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Apparently, Ezeli has been a big locker room prick.

I fixed that for you. Must have been an auto correct or something.

 

[TBpup]

The only thing I disagree on is the Hendo/Turner. You are judging the second half of Hendo with the first half of Turner. I believe Turner will far exceed Hendo's second half contributions.

Yes, I have judged it by what is and not on what might happen in the future.

 

[BonesJones]

The Blazers didn't get much worse they just didn't get much better. While a lot of the other teams in the West got a lot better. This is what mediocre teams get when they have too many untouchables.

The first part of your most was the most correctfully correct thing you've said on this board.

I don't think it's because we have "too many untouchables", more so we didn't land the guys we needed and didn't have an avenue to really improve.

 

[Minstrel]

I fixed that for you. Must have been an auto correct or something.

Nah, Ezeli seems like a good dude. McCollum was just on edge.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Yes, I have judged it by what is and not on what might happen in the future.

But you didn't because right now at this time last year, I don't think Hendo had played as game? He came in injured remember? So far in the two years, Turner has vastly outplayed Hendo cause Hendo hadnt played yet.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Nah, Ezeli seems like a good dude. McCollum was just on edge.

I agree. Just add flames.

 

[TBpup]

But you didn't because right now at this time last year, I don't think Hendo had played as game? He came in injured remember? So far in the two years, Turner has vastly outplayed Hendo cause Hendo hadnt played yet.

Perhaps. I'm accounting for leadership (Adv Henderson) as well as Turner's abysmal +/-. Turner has been better in the last week or so and most people go by 'what have you done for me lately'. I'm just trying to take into account other factors besides just offense.

 

[Denny Crane]

The team talent improved very slightly--Turner is better than the outgoing players. The problem is that price of the roster scaled way out of proportion with the improvement and the team lost the illusory gains of the second half of last season.

The players were way underpaid for up to 4 seasons before last summer. Heck, CJ made like $8M for the past two seasons combined.

It's just silly to equate contract with expectations. There is no actual free market. Factors like "use the cap space or lose it" throws out any link between merit and pay. Heck, the cap and LT and minimum payroll and guaranteed salaries wildly distort equitable salary distribution.

This team is better than last season, but regression by a couple of key players has really hurt.

Even Ezeli's $7M expiring contract is beter than Kaman's $5M one.

Our improvement was incremental, while other teams fared much better in offseason maneuvers. Even the L*kers are much better than last season, thanks to recovery from injuries.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Perhaps. I'm accounting for leadership (Adv Henderson) as well as Turner's abysmal +/-. Turner has been better in the last week or so and most people go by 'what have you done for me lately'. I'm just trying to take into account other factors besides just offense.

And thats where I think our current Turner is still better than the end of Hendo last year. On D.

 

[Minstrel]

The players were way underpaid for up to 4 seasons before last summer. Heck, CJ made like $8M for the past two seasons combined.

I'm not saying that the team's payroll shouldn't have increased more than the talent did--some of that was unavoidable for the reason you mention. But the unavoidable fact is that the team is worse off this year than last, because they're only barely more talented (and overall worse, because a lot of players who were overperforming their talent regressed) but are far, far less flexible.

 

[e_blazer]

The amount of improvement (which remains to be seen if they even finish above 44 wins) is minimal compared to the massive increase in cost per win. Not the type of ROI one would expect or even hope for.

Cliff Alexander vs Jake Layman - Layman's career consists of basically one massive outburst in his 1st quarter ever and then 2-3 minutes at a time every since about once a week. I don't think Alexander ever had 17 points in a month let alone a quarter so....Advantage Layman.
Tim Frazer/Brian Roberts vs. Shabazz Napier - We have to remember what bff Timmy was in Portland and not what he has done this year. He was a pass first PG who couldn't really shoot but did a good job of getting teammates involved. I'll skip over Roberts to get to Napier who is almost the opposite of Frazier. He is a shoot first PG who rarely finds teammates even when they are wide open but does have the ability to score. Advantage BFF
Gerald Henderson vs. Evan Turner - The biggest contributors out of this list. Henderson was more of a veteran presence and had some attitude that seems to roll down to the younger players. Turner is a more dimensional player but has been on such the negative side of +/- (getting better) that it's tough to put him ahead of Gerald. Advantage Hend0.
Chris Kaman vs Festus Ezeli - One played very little and was a big locker room presence. One may never play. Advantage Sasquatch
Louis Montero vs Tim Quarterman - Best trash talker on the team and owner of a 1.000% shooting percentage in last year's playoffs versus the guy who so far has outscored #1 pick Ben Simmons 16-0. Advantage Montero

So, a very minor advantage to the garbage time players (with the exception of Henderson & Turner) of last year vs this year's team.

Not much difference there. I'd say the upgrade to the team has been in the experience end of the equation, where CJ, Dame, and Plumlee seem to have made improvements to their games. Davis has backslid a bit for some reason. Harkless depends on the night. All-in-all, I'd give a slight edge to this year's squad. Now they just have to show it the remainder of the season.

 

[TBpup]

I would say we SHOULD give an edge to this year's team but somehow as a whole, they have regressed. Yes they started out this way last year but with their 2nd half run and some playoff success, they should be at that place or better....not back to where they were at the beginning of last year.

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm not saying that the team's payroll shouldn't have increased more than the talent did--some of that was unavoidable for the reason you mention. But the unavoidable fact is that the team is worse off this year than last, because they're only barely more talented (and overall worse, because a lot of players who were overperforming their talent regressed) but are far, far less flexible.

Unfortunately, the alternatives would have made us worse off.

I would much rather try to win at all reasonable cost than kick th can down the road. Even one season.

Of course a rebuilding plan can take multiple seasons. This is year 2, and we're doing a lot better than expected by now. We did lose 4/5 of our starting lineup, 3 of those as FAs.

 

[e_blazer]

I'm not saying that the team's payroll shouldn't have increased more than the talent did--some of that was unavoidable for the reason you mention. But the unavoidable fact is that the team is worse off this year than last, because they're only barely more talented (and overall worse, because a lot of players who were overperforming their talent regressed) but are far, far less flexible.

I think that "far, far less flexible" part of your calculus is questionable, at least in the long run. Looking at where the money got spent, I doubt anyone would quibble with CJ's extension. I'd say that Turner's and Crabbe's deals are real stretches when it comes to TBpup's return on investment equation. Leonard, despite his many detractors around here, is not overpaid for a guy his size and age. Harkless is a good value. With CJ's salary kicking in next year, the Blazers wouldn't have had much, if any, cap space if they'd been more frugal last summer. The salaries of the questionable contract guys will look less obnoxious as the cap and LT increase and as the number of years remaining decrease. I think NO will have options next summer or, if not, certainly by the following one.

 

[Minstrel]

Leonard, despite his many detractors around here, is not overpaid for a guy his size and age.

I think that's a very weird way of putting it, since you didn't mention basketball ability. Isn't basketball ability not just relevant, but the overwhelmingly most important factor in how much to pay a guy? The stats suggest Leonard currently isn't even worth a spot on an NBA team and watching him play doesn't make me feel that the numbers are wrong. It doesn't matter what his size and age are if he can't play.

$10M is a gigantic overpay for someone who's done as little as Leonard and who's playing even worse this season. He's not getting better over time, he's getting worse. I consider Leonard's extension by far the worst decision Olshey has made, easily outstripping the decision to match on Crabbe. I really don't understand why Leonard is a cult favorite around here--he's never done anything to deserve being so highly thought-of by a minority here.

I strongly believe that if Olshey had given him a deal of $15M per year, there would be a significant number of fans saying that it's fine, you have to pay big men and $15M isn't going to sink us. None of which has any relevance to the fact that there's no evidence that he's worth anything close to that. While that's just my speculation, all of that remains true at $10M.

The way you described Leonard's deal in fact illustrates the problem with most people's justifying of not just his, but Crabbe's deal: it implies that Leonard is basically just one of a bunch of identical "young bigs" (and Crabbe is just one of a bunch of identical wings) and you gotta pay young bigs and wings. It completely ignores the fact that there's huge variation in the ability of young, big men and wings.

 

[oldfisherman]

T

Even Ezeli's $7M expiring contract is beter than Kaman's $5M one.

.

Not sure I understand this statement. Is it because Ezeli's contract expires $2 million more than Kaman's?

I would agree Ezeli would have been the better player of the two, IF HE HAD PLAYED ANY GAMES.

However, neither player has played any games this season. We are left with comparing an intangible, veteran leadership.

It was very clear Kaman mentored Meyers and even worked with him in the off-season. Kaman made a positive impact on Meyer's game. Heck he may have even helped the other bigs, such as Ed Davis. Both Meyers and Davis appear to regress this season without Kaman's bench tutoring.

If Ezeli is mentoring and providing veteran leadership, we have not heard about it yet. So at this point, signing Ezeli over Kaman appears to have weakened the team. (my opinion, 5 cents worth based on limited inside knowledge)

 

[Denny Crane]

Not sure I understand this statement. Is it because Ezeli's contract expires $2 million more than Kaman's?

I would agree Ezeli would have been the better player of the two, IF HE HAD PLAYED ANY GAMES.

However, neither player has played any games this season. We are left with comparing an intangible, veteran leadership.

It was very clear Kaman mentored Meyers and even worked with him in the off-season. Kaman made a positive impact on Meyer's game. Heck he may have even helped the other bigs, such as Ed Davis. Both Meyers and Davis appear to regress this season without Kaman's bench tutoring.

If Ezeli is mentoring and providing veteran leadership, we have not heard about it yet. So at this point, signing Ezeli over Kaman appears to have weakened the team. (my opinion, 5 cents worth based on limited inside knowledge)

Yes. We didn't need Kaman to play 1 minute. Mentoring is a coaching thing. Not a factor in the CBA.

 

[rockinblues]

The team still has chances to gain wins and be .500. If not then the defaut answer is worse than 2015-16 Forget Ezeli who could have been significant. Quarterman, Layman and Nappier are ghosts.

 

[e_blazer]

I think that's a very weird way of putting it, since you didn't mention basketball ability. Isn't basketball ability not just relevant, but the overwhelmingly most important factor in how much to pay a guy? The stats suggest Leonard currently isn't even worth a spot on an NBA team and watching him play doesn't make me feel that the numbers are wrong. It doesn't matter what his size and age are if he can't play.

$10M is a gigantic overpay for someone who's done as little as Leonard and who's playing even worse this season. He's not getting better over time, he's getting worse. I consider Leonard's extension by far the worst decision Olshey has made, easily outstripping the decision to match on Crabbe. I really don't understand why Leonard is a cult favorite around here--he's never done anything to deserve being so highly thought-of by a minority here.

I strongly believe that if Olshey had given him a deal of $15M per year, there would be a significant number of fans saying that it's fine, you have to pay big men and $15M isn't going to sink us. None of which has any relevance to the fact that there's no evidence that he's worth anything close to that. While that's just my speculation, all of that remains true at $10M.

The way you described Leonard's deal in fact illustrates the problem with most people's justifying of not just his, but Crabbe's deal: it implies that Leonard is basically just one of a bunch of identical "young bigs" (and Crabbe is just one of a bunch of identical wings) and you gotta pay young bigs and wings. It completely ignores the fact that there's huge variation in the ability of young, big men and wings.

That's an awful lot of writing just to call me a dumbass.

Miles Plumlee - $12.5M
Kosta Koufos - $8M
Tyler Zeller - $8M
Cole Aldrich - $7.6M

I think Leonard's playing contributions are pretty comparable to those guys. Aldrich accepted a bit of a lowball offer last summer because he wanted to play for the TWolves. I'd say that Meyers' $9.2 this season is right in the ballpark. Maybe a million high, but not enough to matter.

 

[oldfisherman]

The problem I have with Meyers is, he has shown flashes of greatness. He has had a few really good games. He even had really good games in the playoffs against the tough Grizz defense. Then he goes back to his old clueless self. I’m convinced his problem is mental.

Meyers has a ton of talent, but he doesn’t apply it well for very many games. It’s like he is playing in an alternate dimension, with an occasional appearance in the NBA dimension. Or, maybe the game is just too fast for him. Not sure what his mental problem is, and if it is fixable?

 

[BigGameDamian]

The team still has chances to gain wins and be .500. If not then the defaut answer is worse than 2015-16 Forget Ezeli who could have been significant. Quarterman, Layman and Nappier are ghosts.

A chance to be .500...LoL