Don't trade the pick

[STOMP]

well, if that's the case and Scoot has the issues of shooting, defense, and ball control some analysts see, then maybe this is a one person draft after all

....meaning that Blazers considering trading the pick isn't as bad a bet as many are claiming

All roads seem to lead to the same conclusion for you...

STOMP

 

[MrDraftGuy]

I just remember all the guards who were going to be NBA stars according to pre-draft hype of course. Over the last 10 drafts:

Victor Oladipo
Dante Exum
D'Angelo Russell
Kris Dunn
Markelle Fultz
Coby White
Cade Cunnigham
Jalen Green
Jalen Suggs

there have been 2 or 3 triples and doubles, but also a lot of fouls and strikes

Green, Cunningham, Oladipo, and even Russell are 20ppg guards (the former two still have All star potential and the latter reaching it). Fultz faced a major injury that impacted his career.

Either way, we should frame it as "Top Point Guard Prospects" instead (going as far back as when CP3 was drafted since the era of PGs before was weak, "*" asterisk indicates All Star selection):

Ivey
Cunningham - hyped
*LaMelo
*Morant - hyped
*Trae
Fultz - super hyped
*Simmons - hyped
*D'Lo
Payton - no PGs in Top 6/weak year for PGs (Smart is SG and Exum is a SG and had no experience playing PG before the Jazz tried to make him one)
Burke - no PGs in Top 6/very weak lottery in general (Oladipo not really PG)
*Dame
*Kyrie - hyped
*Wall - super hyped
Rubio
*Rose - super hyped
*Conley
Foye - weak year for PGs
*D-Will/*CP3 - both neck in neck level of hype out of college so will include both

Essentially, the top PG prospect in every draft has turned out good to great if there is a PG prospect worthy of being Top 6. The majority of them go on to become All-Stars (11/17...may become 13/17 in a few years) and around half become All-NBA. Unfortunately, some things like mental issues (Ben Simmons case) or injuries (Wall, Rose, Fultz maybe) cannot be controlled.

However, you're more likely to hit a stud rather than not - especially if the PG has HYPE.

 

[STOMP]

Well Bridges and Claxton would be a nice start with the # 3 / Nurk .

Smh... yes that would be a nice start. Are you sure you wouldn't prefer the Nets throw in a few unprotected 1sts too?

you must have been incredibly disappointed every time you opened your Christmas presents

STOMP

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Smh... yes that would be a nice start. Are you sure you wouldn't prefer the Nets throw in a few unprotected 1sts too?

you must have been incredibly disappointed every time you opened your Christmas presents

STOMP

That should be the knock our socks off return we look for with the #3 pick in an elite 3 player draft.

We don't get it, then keep the pick and roll the dice on getting a 19year old superstar. I'll be pretty happy with the latter, not a bad present at all.

 

[STOMP]

I can only assume that you have an inside source telling you who Joe’s getting, otherwise this would just be pure speculation. I will note that the plan to do a total rebuild has the Blazers on the same timeline as Wemby’s Spurs, so you may want to factor that in before scheduling the parade.

So Portland should deal all their assets for 2035 and after 1sts?

the future is promised to no one

STOMP

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I haven't got through the first page yet. but after reading @Rastapopoulos and @TBpup I'm suddenly feeling like keeping the pick and blowing it up. A lot of it because I really don't want to sign Grant to a big contract. I voted for trade the pick a few minutes ago but now I would be angry if we did. (Fully realizing that we might draft a bust.)
If i am Cronin, I find the best offer I can for #3, show it to Lillard and talk about how it's not enough. Tell Lillard that you don't want to pay Grant more than 24 million and you think he might go elsewhere and let Lillard decide what he wants to do. Lillard wants to be in on the decision-making, then let him know what you really think.
I think they will trade the pick though and so I guess I am not going to be happy.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I have to agree with Aaron Fentress:

Aaron J. Fentress @AaronJFentress
The Trail Blazers would have a better shot at winning a title by going all in and acquiring two impact players now than they would by trading Damian Lillard and hoping that a bunch of kids develop into championship-caliber stars. And, they remain in Portland.

So, just need to figure out how to acquire two impact plaers with the assets we have?

 

[e_blazer]

So Portland should deal all their assets for 2035 and after 1sts?

the future is promised to no one

STOMP

As I’ve said in multiple posts, I’m not against a rebuild if Cronin can’t pull off the deals to compete. I’ve also said that the most likely outcome of either the reload around Dame or a complete rebuild is some entertaining basketball and no title. It takes a ton of luck to win an NBA title, especially for small market teams.

 

[wizenheimer]

All roads seem to lead to the same conclusion for you...

STOMP

maybe in your mapquest...not mine

 

[Natebishop3]

maybe in your mapquest...not mine

Stop… you do not still use Mapquest.

 

[wizenheimer]

Stop… you do not still use Mapquest.

probably not...google

IIRC my mapquest gps was right next to my 8-track...right below the scented dice

 

[BBert]

yes...I was watching on the TV with a couple of friends. Game 6 in Portland. Fucking Brent Mussberger calling the plays. And goddamn fucking CBS cut away from coverage shortly after the win for the Kemper fucking Open. Didn't get to see the celebrations afterward like they have for about every other championship

went out with the friends and played some hoops in the afternoon after the win. Went out that night and maybe, just maybe, got drunk

I remember how the network went into the locker room and broadcast the champagne and cigar party after the 76ers won the ECF. Interviews. The whole shebang. I will never forget "we now take you to the Kemper Open" before the Blazers had even left the court. I also remember the Sports Illustrated article about how the 76ers lost the championship.

Yes. I'm still bitter.

 

[BBert]

So Portland should deal all their assets for 2035 and after 1sts?

the future is promised to no one

STOMP

AI will have blown us all up by then so I say we go for it now.

 

[42N8Bounce]

Interesting site here that breaks down the value of each draft position.

The 3rd pick is given a relative value of 66.75.
The 23rd pick is given a relative value of 20.00.
Total value = 86.75

A few teams that have multiple first round picks:
Orlando at 6 (52.75) + 11 (40.00) = 92.75
Houston at 4 (60.25) + 20 (24.50) = 84.75
Utah at 9 (45.75) + 16 (29.50) = 75.25
Indiana at 7 (50.00) + 26 (16.50) = 66.50

Lots of fun options.

 

[Phatguysrule]

you said Portland has been "rebuilding for 10 years". I disagreed and explained why. You haven't said one word about what I said about rebuilding...you have just taken it in a real fucking weird "look at me" direction

This got me thinking...

Is there a "look at me" scenerio that isn't real fucking weird?

I'm thinking not... But I could be missing something...

 

[Phatguysrule]

This is true with the following qualifiers:
Better shot IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS
"Better" means getting bounced in the first round instead of competing for the worst record in the league. Neither rises to "good," but the latter will give us another high lottery pick.

Disagree. IMO, the best chance the Blazers have of winning a title in the next decade is by keeping Dame.

 

[STOMP]

As I’ve said in multiple posts, I’m not against a rebuild if Cronin can’t pull off the deals to compete.

To me they'd need to somehow add two borderline AS types to their frontcourt to be competitive... a wing and a Big. Especially if they're holding onto Shaedon, I just don't see them as having the assets to do so no matter who the GM is.

It takes a ton of luck to win an NBA title, especially for small market teams.

for sure. Luck and good management.

STOMP

 

[e_blazer]

To me they'd need to somehow add two borderline AS types to their frontcourt to be competitive... a wing and a Big. Especially if they're holding onto Shaedon, I just don't see them as having the assets to do so no matter who the GM is.


for sure. Luck and good management.

STOMP

I agree with your assessment as to needs, but I think that finally Cronin does have the assets to make it happen. @blazerkor posted a series of trades that would net OG at SF and KAT at C, backed up by Hartenstein that I thought was plausible. Are OG and KAT close enough to the quality level needed? That’s open for debate, but I think there will be moves that can push the Blazers into contention. Probably none that would make them anyone’s favorite to win it all starting the season, but I don’t think Dame or Cronin are expecting that.

 

[STOMP]

I agree with your assessment as to needs, but I think that finally Cronin does have the assets to make it happen. @blazerkor posted a series of trades that would net OG at SF and KAT at C, backed up by Hartenstein that I thought was plausible. Are OG and KAT close enough to the quality level needed? That’s open for debate, but I think there will be moves that can push the Blazers into contention. Probably none that would make them anyone’s favorite to win it all starting the season, but I don’t think Dame or Cronin are expecting that.

First of all, sorry they aren't landing KAT. That would be great, but thats extremely unlikely no matter what some Dame-centric poster hopes for. 2nd, even if they did somehow do this I agree that wouldn't be among the league's elite. It would however be enough to take them out of the lotto making whatever draft assets they'd have left very unlikely to add much to the mix as Dame, and Portland's chances, fades.

I'm not rooting for the Damian Lillards, I'm rooting for the Portland Trailblazers. My hopes are for the team are above just not sucking. I'm willing to be patient

STOMP

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I haven't got through the first page yet. but after reading @Rastapopoulos and @TBpup I'm suddenly feeling like keeping the pick and blowing it up. A lot of it because I really don't want to sign Grant to a big contract. I voted for trade the pick a few minutes ago but now I would be angry if we did.

I promise I will use my svengali-like powers responsibly going forward

 

[Rastapopoulos]

First of all, sorry they aren't landing KAT. That would be great,

Counterpoint: no it wouldn't. KAT is a luh-OOzer.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

If only you experts could see behind the door and see what offers we are receiving.

Go back over the past, oh, 5 or 6 trades this franchise has made. Has there been ONE where you thought, "Holy shit, that's better than I was expecting!"
Not only that, I'll wager that (unless you have no idea about players on other teams) there hasn't been one when you haven't thought "is that IT??"

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Stop… you do not still use Mapquest.

It runs great on a Windows phone (when you're not using it for Skype)

 

[tykendo]

Counterpoint: no it wouldn't. KAT is a luh-OOzer.

Not a KAT fan either. Just isn't made of the right stuff , competitor wise. Way too sensitive & soft.

 

[Bingo Bango]

would you agree that if Dame doesn't want to be traded Portland shouldn't trade him?

That’s a very good question. I suspect if Lillard wants to stay in Portland the rest of his career, that’s exactly what will happen. No way Cronin will trade him. It may even be the popular choice with the fans. My own opinion, however, is that it will mean passing on a golden opportunity to make the team better.

 

[wizenheimer]

Ha. That’s a very good question. I suspect if Lillard wants to stay in Portland the rest of his career, that’s exactly what will happen. No way Cronin will trade him. It may even be the popular choice with the fans. My own opinion, however, is that it will mean passing on a golden opportunity to make the team better.

what golden opportunity and how would the team be "better"? How can you say that without knowing what the real opportunity is?

 

[tykendo]

That’s a very good question. I suspect if Lillard wants to stay in Portland the rest of his career, that’s exactly what will happen. No way Cronin will trade him. It may even be the popular choice with the fans. My own opinion, however, is that it will mean passing on a golden opportunity to make the team better.

IMO , the Blazers would be passing on a golden opportunity if they don't trade picks for real game changers around Dame.

 

[Bingo Bango]

what golden opportunity and how would the team be "better"? How can you say that without knowing what the real opportunity is?

The “golden opportunity” is trading Lillard when he has a lot of value and will bring us a very good return. He’s our strongest trade chip by far. Trading him will not guarantee a championship, of course, but on the other hand how many more years do you want to watch him keep trying and failing to win a title? I don’t believe we have enough assets to get the pieces we need this summer for a title team, but I could be wrong. If Cronin can pull off some magic and build a championship team in one fell swoop, then I’ll be tickled pink. But I’m not holding my breath.

 

[tykendo]

The “golden opportunity” is trading Lillard when he has a lot of value and will bring us a very good return. He’s our strongest trade chip by far. Trading him will not guarantee a championship, of course, but on the other hand how many more years do you want to watch him keep trying and failing to win a title? I don’t believe we have enough assets to get the pieces we need this summer for a title team, but I could be wrong. If Cronin can pull off some magic and build a championship team in one fell swoop, then I’ll be tickled pink. But I’m not holding my breath.

I've enjoyed watching every incredible moment in Dame's career. Every night offers the chance to see special happen. Happened last year on multiple occasions. I want to continue to experience that as long as i can. As fun as Shaedon's dunks are, they don't compare to watching Lillard take over a game.

 

[tykendo]

Masterpiece after Masterpiece.