Ducks (1 Viewer)

[wizenheimer]

if the Ducks are 12-1 and the Pac-12 champion it will be hard to keep them out unless, for instance, Georgia, OSU, and TCU are all 13-0....but who would get in over Oregon? An 11-1 Tennessee who didn't win their conference? Same for Michigan? A 12-1 Clemson team currently 6 spots behind Oregon, and who is the only ACC team in the top-13 while the Pac-12 has 4 teams in the top-13?

if the committee leaves out a 12-1 conference champion after spending 8 years saying that winning a P5 conference championship is their 1st criteria they'll get hammered

that said, as a Duck fan I'd be amazed if the Ducks go 4-0 over the next 4 week-ends

 

[PtldPlatypus]

if the Ducks are 12-1 and the Pac-12 champion it will be hard to keep them out unless, for instance, Georgia, OSU, and TCU are all 13-0....but who would get in over Oregon? An 11-1 Tennessee who didn't win their conference? Same for Michigan? A 12-1 Clemson team currently 6 spots behind Oregon, and who is the only ACC team in the top-13 while the Pac-12 has 4 teams in the top-13?

if the committee leaves out a 12-1 conference champion after spending 8 years saying that winning a P5 conference championship is their 1st criteria they'll get hammered

that said, as a Duck fan I'd be amazed if the Ducks go 4-0 over the next 4 week-ends

I think your take on this is correct, specifically considering that for UO to win out, they'd add wins over UW (ranked), Utah (ranked), OSU (possibly ranked again by that point), and UCLA/USC (ranked) to their already solid resume. And they'll have a Heisman finalist to boot. IF they're good/fortunate enough to win out, they have to be in.

 

[STOMP]

Meh let me know when they actually sign..

Letting you know, today they actually signed. Ducks add an amazing hoops class with two in state kids 4* PG Jackson Shelstad of West Linn & 5* SF Mookie Cook of Portland along with 5* PF Kwame Evans

STOMP

 

[AldoTrapani]

Letting you know, today they actually signed. Ducks add an amazing hoops class with two in state kids 4* PG Jackson Shelstad of West Linn & 5* SF Mookie Cook of Portland along with 5* PF Kwame Evans

STOMP

Perfect now we can celebrate that. You hear about Dante Moore might flip to Michigan state? Another example why I don’t get my hopes with these commitments

 

[Hoopguru]

Perfect now we can celebrate that. You hear about Dante Moore might flip to Michigan state? Another example why I don’t get my hopes with these commitments

You realize that NIL bucks will be a factor too.

 

[STOMP]

Perfect now we can celebrate that.

Can we? Guys have flipped after signing. There is no law against it. Maybe we should never celebrate or get excited about the teams we follow... safer that way.

You hear about Dante Moore might flip to Michigan state? Another example why I don’t get my hopes with these commitments

It's a rumor dude, but thats the nature of top prospects... others want them and a high profile player can generate clicks galore for a writer. Rumors about players and coaches happen all the time, especially when a team is rolling. I was really high on Moore well before he gave a verbal to Oregon so I'd be bummed if he flipped elsewhere. Decent chance that happens if Dillingham isn't back as OC & it's likely he'll be fielding HC offers. But I'll be pretty surprised if it's to MSU given the shit storm they're dealing with lately on top of their 4-5 record. I'll be less surprised if they fire the coaching staff

STOMP

 

[MickZagger]

I wonder if Moore is just trying to leverage more NIL money

 

[wizenheimer]

I wonder if Moore is just trying to leverage more NIL money

what I wonder is if some dingbat internet blogger just made some shit up

 

[MickZagger]

what I wonder is if some dingbat internet blogger just made some shit up

that’s a possibility too

 

[STOMP]

what I wonder is if some dingbat internet blogger just made some shit up

The insiders at rivals are saying the 247 guy who is making these waves is an MSU honk well known for stirring the pot. They also note that the Spartans weren't in his final 3 back when he chose Oregon. Of course in this age any school could put together an outrageous NIL package (something Uncle Phil has supposedly said he won't do) and 4-5 MSU is in Moore's home state. We shall see!

STOMP

 

[TBpup]

Yeah, I'm listening to the Herd spouting that nonsense as well.

I think that's ridiculous reasoning.

Colin....saying something nonsensical? My mind it completely blown!

 

[STOMP]

For some reason a home game against the Huskies with as awful as their secondary is, just doesn’t scare me the least bit.

Anything but scared... it's Washington and I want to see my Duckies smack the purple out of them. Can't wait!

Statistically their D has been pretty good this year though. They've especially excelled pressuring the QB & generating sacks where they rank in the top 20 in the nation. Conversely Oregon ranks #1 in the nation in not giving up sack & Nix has been amazing.

I’m hearing the theory that the committee doesn’t want Oregon, because if they made it, it would likely be as the 4 seed and have to play Georgia. They want nothing to do with a rematch of that drubbing.

I'm sure those on the committee have some contrasting motivations but it's reasonable to speculate they'd have an underlying hope to have the most intriguing matchups that garner the most viewers/revenue. Pretty clear though that if Oregon handles their business in the remaining games (far from a given) they'll be in.

STOMP

 

[bigbailes]

if the Ducks are 12-1 and the Pac-12 champion it will be hard to keep them out unless, for instance, Georgia, OSU, and TCU are all 13-0....but who would get in over Oregon? An 11-1 Tennessee who didn't win their conference? Same for Michigan? A 12-1 Clemson team currently 6 spots behind Oregon, and who is the only ACC team in the top-13 while the Pac-12 has 4 teams in the top-13?

if the committee leaves out a 12-1 conference champion after spending 8 years saying that winning a P5 conference championship is their 1st criteria they'll get hammered

that said, as a Duck fan I'd be amazed if the Ducks go 4-0 over the next 4 week-ends

Yes it's extremely likely they take an 11-1 Tennessee team that went to Athens and played a much more competitive game over a 12-1 oregon team that got demolished in the season opener. Add to it the Alabama win (assuming they stay at 2 losses) will be seen as a far superior win to anything coming from out west. I know duck fans will think that's nitpicking but that's exactly what the committee has to when teams have 1 loss, it's about finding the tiny margins and they've shown over and over again how much they don't respect the P12.

 

[STOMP]

Yes it's extremely likely they take an 11-1 Tennessee team that went to Athens and played a much more competitive game over a 12-1 oregon team that got demolished in the season opener. Add to it the Alabama win (assuming they stay at 2 losses) will be seen as a far superior win to anything coming from out west. I know duck fans will think that's nitpicking but that's exactly what the committee has to when teams have 1 loss, it's about finding the tiny margins and they've shown over and over again how much they don't respect the P12.

I think it's extremely likely you're a Beavers fan hoping.

Tennessee was also dismantled by Georgia, sorry but that game wasn't nearly as close as the lopsided score. If Oregon wins out, they'll have to do so over multiple top 20 teams down the stretch while no such games loom for the Vols. Most importantly, the committee has consistently shown a preference for conference champions which Oregon would be and Tennessee would not. Thats the reasoning of noted Duck hater Wilner and many others in the media when explaining how they see things unfolding if both schools win out.

STOMP

 

[Hoopguru]

I think it's extremely likely you're a Beavers fan hoping.

Tennessee was also dismantled by Georgia, sorry but that game wasn't nearly as close as the lopsided score. If Oregon wins out, they'll have to do so over multiple top 20 teams down the stretch while no such games loom for the Vols. Most importantly, the committee has consistently shown a preference for conference champions which Oregon would be and Tennessee would not. Thats the reasoning of noted Duck hater Wilner and many others in the media when explaining how they see things unfolding if both schools win out.

STOMP

agree, and if Oregon wins out with the conference championship and the fact they beat UCLA, USC, Utah, OSU, BYU, & WA they'd be hard for the committee to pass on. And I think there is a difference in losing to Dawgs very first game with new coaches and players versus Tennessee losing later on towards end of season.

 

[wizenheimer]

Yes it's extremely likely they take an 11-1 Tennessee team that went to Athens and played a much more competitive game over a 12-1 oregon team that got demolished in the season opener. Add to it the Alabama win (assuming they stay at 2 losses) will be seen as a far superior win to anything coming from out west. I know duck fans will think that's nitpicking but that's exactly what the committee has to when teams have 1 loss, it's about finding the tiny margins and they've shown over and over again how much they don't respect the P12.

it's not "extremely likely", that's bullshit

yeah, it could happen. But Tennessee would have signature wins over LSU & Alabama, while the Ducks would have wins over UCLA, Washington, Utah, OSU, and USC (for example). And the biggest argument against Oregon, the one advanced in this thread, is that the committee wouldn't want a rematch of Oregon against Georgia in the semi-finals. Well the same would be true of Tennessee against Georgia. I suppose the committee could avoid that be elevating OSU or Michigan to #1, but they could do that for either Tennessee or Oregon

I'd think there would be a decent possibility, in the remote chance Oregon was the 12-1 Pac-12 champion, that an 11-1 Michigan (or OSU) & 11-1 Tennessee would cancel each other out and the committee would take the easy route of taking the conference champion

 

[bigbailes]

I think it's extremely likely you're a Beavers fan hoping.

Tennessee was also dismantled by Georgia, sorry but that game wasn't nearly as close as the lopsided score. If Oregon wins out, they'll have to do so over multiple top 20 teams down the stretch while no such games loom for the Vols. Most importantly, the committee has consistently shown a preference for conference champions which Oregon would be and Tennessee would not. Thats the reasoning of noted Duck hater Wilner and many others in the media when explaining how they see things unfolding if both schools win out.

STOMP

Nope not a Beaver fan ... the committee has been consistently inconsistent about what they are looking for when it comes to one loss teams, sometimes it's a strong non-con schedule, sometimes it's a conference champ, but the one thing they always seem to favor is the SEC getting the benefit of the doubt. You might not like it, and judging by your "Wilner is a duck hater" logic, you probably don't see things very objectively, which is fine, as a fan you shouldn't.

 

[bigbailes]

it's not "extremely likely", that's bullshit

yeah, it could happen. But Tennessee would have signature wins over LSU & Alabama, while the Ducks would have wins over UCLA, Washington, Utah, OSU, and USC (for example). And the biggest argument against Oregon, the one advanced in this thread, is that the committee wouldn't want a rematch of Oregon against Georgia in the semi-finals. Well the same would be true of Tennessee against Georgia. I suppose the committee could avoid that be elevating OSU or Michigan to #1, but they could do that for either Tennessee or Oregon

I'd think there would be a decent possibility, in the remote chance Oregon was the 12-1 Pac-12 champion, that an 11-1 Michigan (or OSU) & 11-1 Tennessee would cancel each other out and the committee would take the easy route of taking the conference champion

All very possible, problem is that Bama/LSU wins will be looked on much more favorably over Utah/UCLA/Washington/OSU/USC because the Pac will continue to beat itself up. Very good chance that only three of those teams are ranked at the end of the season. And yes I agree that the Georgia/Ten game was worse than the final score indicated, my guess is that won't matter nearly as much as you think it will, while Tenn will get the benefit of the doubt in playing a true road game in Athens, where as the ducks ass whooping was on a 'neutral' site (yes I realize what a joke that is).

 

[wizenheimer]

All very possible, problem is that Bama/LSU wins will be looked on much more favorably over Utah/UCLA/Washington/OSU/USC because the Pac will continue to beat itself up. Very good chance that only three of those teams are ranked at the end of the season. And yes I agree that the Georgia/Ten game was worse than the final score indicated, my guess is that won't matter nearly as much as you think it will, while Tenn will get the benefit of the doubt in playing a true road game in Athens, where as the ducks ass whooping was on a 'neutral' site (yes I realize what a joke that is).

that's all reasonable

I think the CFP committee is nervous right now because they know what a mess it would be to have:

Georgia 13-0
Ohio State 13-10

Oregon 12-1
TCU 12-1
Clemson 12-1
Tennessee 11-1
Michigan 11-1

and just suppose LSU beats Georgia in the SEC title game....LOL

 

[bigbailes]

Without a doubt a chance for some chaos ... but it feels like we get to this point every season and then it plays itself out to where we more or less get the teams that deserve to be in. I really think Georgia (even with a loss in the SEC title game) and OSU/Mich winner (baring a random weird loss) are in just based off their track records. I'm not saying oregon has no shot, they obviously do but my guess is things have to shake out for them to get there, even with winning out. Good news for duck fans is a lot is going to shake out in next few weeks.

 

[STOMP]

Nope not a Beaver fan ... the committee has been consistently inconsistent about what they are looking for when it comes to one loss teams, sometimes it's a strong non-con schedule, sometimes it's a conference champ, but the one thing they always seem to favor is the SEC getting the benefit of the doubt. You might not like it, and judging by your "Wilner is a duck hater" logic, you probably don't see things very objectively, which is fine, as a fan you shouldn't.

I live in the Bay Area and hear Wilner regularly on local sports talk (he writes for a local paper the San Jose Mercury News). Believe it or not he cracks on the Ducks pretty much every time he speaks about them. You'd have to be obtuse to not recognize he has a clear bias as he doesn't hide it. I was actually taken aback that he of all people stated he thought they had the inside track. Other media types saying the same thing are recognizing whats pretty obvious. I heard it said the other day on local sports talk that only 1 conference champion with 1 loss from the Big 5 conferences hasn't made the playoffs, which jibes with my memory. Not sure where you're coming up with the sometimes stuff though I suspect it's from the same place you pulled the extremely likely comment.

I honestly am not invested in the Ducks making the playoffs. I primarily want them to crush Washington & win the Pac 12. Thats always been the main two goals since I was there over 30 years ago.

STOMP

 

[bigbailes]

Sorry I refuse to deal in absolutes when it comes to something unpredictable like 18-22 year olds playing a sport. A lot can and probably will change over the next four weeks but forgive me if I think Tennessee’s resume is better than oregon’s, just my opinion.

as for Wilner, please get a little more condescending when telling me about the guy that covers the conference better than anyone else. Pretty much every fan base in the P12 thinks Wilner hates them, doesn’t mean it’s true, just means he’s doing his job looking at thing objectively. I don’t alway like what he writes but he has a pulse on the league like no one else. As a fellow journalist I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt that they don’t ‘hate’ your team, just see it in a different light than you or any other fan. It’s like when fans complain that announcers are ‘bias against my team’ … no they just compliment both sides and you don’t want to hear it.

As for not worrying about the playoffs, my guess is this is all moot as oregon/USC/UCLA will most likely all slip up at least once each down the stretch because that’s what happens in this sport.

 

[Natebishop3]

it's not "extremely likely", that's bullshit

yeah, it could happen. But Tennessee would have signature wins over LSU & Alabama, while the Ducks would have wins over UCLA, Washington, Utah, OSU, and USC (for example). And the biggest argument against Oregon, the one advanced in this thread, is that the committee wouldn't want a rematch of Oregon against Georgia in the semi-finals. Well the same would be true of Tennessee against Georgia. I suppose the committee could avoid that be elevating OSU or Michigan to #1, but they could do that for either Tennessee or Oregon

I'd think there would be a decent possibility, in the remote chance Oregon was the 12-1 Pac-12 champion, that an 11-1 Michigan (or OSU) & 11-1 Tennessee would cancel each other out and the committee would take the easy route of taking the conference champion

This just cements to me that it’s foolish to schedule these difficult OOC games. If we had taken on cupcake U and were undefeated we would be in the top 4. I get that we are trying to show that we belong, but all it has done is bite us in the ass.

 

[bigbailes]

This just cements to me that it’s foolish to schedule these difficult OOC games. If we had taken on cupcake U and were undefeated we would be in the top 4. I get that we are trying to show that we belong, but all it has done is bite us in the ass.

Look no further than washington’s team that went to the CFP in 2016. They played Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State, all from husky stadium. This is why I hate the committee selecting teams because they’ll tell you one thing (they want to see big teams play each other) but then select a team that does the opposite.

 

[Natebishop3]

Look no further than washington’s team that went to the CFP in 2016. They played Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State, all from husky stadium. This is why I hate the committee selecting teams because they’ll tell you one thing (they want to see big teams play each other) but then select a team that does the opposite.

Yup. It’s not worth it. The benefit just isn’t worth the potential cost. If Oregon had somehow won, great. They’re rank 1 or something. But if they had played Portland state they’d probably be top 4 instead of outside looking in.

 

[STOMP]

Sorry I refuse to deal in absolutes when it comes to something unpredictable like 18-22 year olds playing a sport. A lot can and probably will change over the next four weeks but forgive me if I think Tennessee’s resume is better than oregon’s, just my opinion.

You are welcome to your opinion, just as I (& others here) are welcome to the opinion that it's ridiculous to say extremely likely when it's anything but according to most including the upstanding journalist you laud "that covers the conference better than anyone else".

Could the committee ultimately choose Tennessee over Oregon if both win out? Unlikely according to most, but of course they could. Assuming they both win out, style points would factor in along with quality of opponent. UT's three remaining opponents have a combined record of 13-14. None are ranked. Oregon's last 3 regular season opponents have a combined record of 20-8 with two of them ranked... & then they'd play a championship game against another likely ranked opponent.

So, assuming both win out, 4 quality opponents on the upcoming schedule for Oregon verses only 1 with a winning record for Tennessee. It's not bias, it's math

STOMP

 

[bigbailes]

J

You are welcome to your opinion, just as I (& others here) think it's ridiculous to say extremely likely when it's anything but according to most including the upstanding journalist you laud "that covers the conference better than anyone else".

Could the committee ultimately choose Tennessee over Oregon if both win out? Unlikely according to most, but of course they could. Assuming they both win out, style points would factor in along with quality of opponent. UT's three remaining opponents have a combined record of 13-14. None are ranked. Oregon's last 3 regular season opponents have a combined record of 20-8 with two of them ranked... & then they'd play a championship game against another likely ranked opponent.

It's not bias, it's math

STOMP

When it comes down to the OPINIONS of the 13 people that make up the committee, math has very little to do with it, they can take whoever they choose and come up with whatever reasoning they want. Won't shock me one way or the other.

 

[STOMP]

but you know the OPINIONS of those 13 so well as to state whats extremely likely? Whatever dude

STOMP

 

[PtldPlatypus]

J

When it comes down to the OPINIONS of the 13 people that make up the committee, math has very little to do with it, they can take whoever they choose and come up with whatever reasoning they want. Won't shock me one way or the other.

I think you need to read some stuff by Dave Bartoo or Adam McClintock. They have repeatedly shown that there is a pretty clear formula for determining the CFP rankings, and they nail it every week.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I love the Ducks but even I'm not seeing them as one of the 4 best college teams.