Eating Crow about Scoot (1 Viewer)

[tlongII]

I never had a doubt. The kid is 20 and is a hard worker. It's just a matter of time until he's a top 10 PG in the league.

 

[tlongII]

Hate to say it but feel like Clingan is still a good year or two away from being a full time starter. He’s going to pick up fouls in bunches so better have a good back up center if you plan on starting him.

Really hope Sharpe has improved and can stay healthy if not consolation is Camara looks pretty good in starting lineup. Still have high hopes for Sharpe

You're probably right about Clingan as he needs to improve his conditioning. He should be playing more than he is currently though. That's one of the biggest mysteries to me regarding Billups' coaching. He definitely impacts the game so he should get more than 10-12 minutes per game.

 

[Foxx]

Hate to say it but feel like Clingan is still a good year or two away from being a full time starter. He’s going to pick up fouls in bunches so better have a good back up center if you plan on starting him.

Really hope Sharpe has improved and can stay healthy if not consolation is Camara looks pretty good in starting lineup. Still have high hopes for Sharpe

We don’t even need DC to start.

Him and DA are a GD freight train for 99% of the nba to deal with.

no one is competing with that combo outside of maybe the cavs. Chauncey has already said he will experiment playing them together. Probably once Grants gone

 

[1 Eye Jack]

We don’t even need DC to start.

Him and DA are a GD freight train for 99% of the nba to deal with.

no one is competing with that combo outside of maybe the cavs. Chauncey has already said he will experiment playing them together. Probably once Grants gone

Guessing they’d like to trade DA to get rid of his salary.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Hate to say it but feel like Clingan is still a good year or two away from being a full time starter. He’s going to pick up fouls in bunches so better have a good back up center if you plan on starting him.

Really hope Sharpe has improved and can stay healthy if not consolation is Camara looks pretty good in starting lineup. Still have high hopes for Sharpe

Duop is fine for a backup, I like his veteran prescence for our young group. We're not trying to contend this year so if they both have some mistakes thats fine.

Ayton is the piece that doesn't fit, takes shots away from other youth, and has no future here. Since he is on a max deal I just don't see any team wanting him but maybe when his deal is closer to an expiring there could be a desperate buyer.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Guessing they’d like to trade DA to get rid of his salary.

Well sure, but what team wants to eat Ayton max salary? I hope the Blazers don't send out more draft picks as they did to dump Brogdon salary.

It would be better to just let Ayton deal expire next year and he can walk away just as when Whiteside max deal here ended and he signed for the minimum with the Kings.

 

[RR7]

We didn't "send out picks to dump Brogdon's salary" any more so than we sent out Nurk to dump Dame. That's just stupid.

 

[handiman]

Ayton is the piece that doesn't fit, takes shots away from other youth, and has no future here. Since he is on a max deal I just don't see any team wanting him but maybe when his deal is closer to an expiring there could be a desperate buyer.

That sure does get repeated a lot... Perhaps because Ayton called himself a max player? At $35M or so per year, he's far from a max player. At this point, that's a pretty average salary for a starter on their second contract.

I also disagree rather strongly that Ayton takes shots away from other guys. [Gr]Ant, sure, they tend to control the ball when getting their touches. Ayton is the recipient of other guys creating offense, mostly getting lobs and put-backs, or trailing mid-range jumpers. Those aren't shots that other guys are going to get simply by Ayton not taking them. Also, having a strong finisher like Ayton is important to the development of someone like Scoot, who needs to be continually polishing his set-up game.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Also, having a strong finisher like Ayton is important to the development of someone like Scoot, who needs to be continually polishing his set-up game.

Perhaps you mean "a strong finisher - unlike Ayton"?

 

[wizenheimer]

How about per minute or per 36?

I don't know where those stats came from. But the game/minutes averages:

Scoot 27.8
Cam Thomas 35.2
Cunningham 36.6
Doncic 37.3

so obviously, Scoot is driving at a higher rate. That's kind of a raw stat

if you sort by average drives/game, Scoot is 5th:



* if you sort by average FGM, Scoot is tied for 23rd (3.0 - same as CJ, Dame, and Julius Randle)

* if you look at FG% on drives for players averaging over 10 drives/game:

Damian Lillard 66.7
Darius Garland 64.0
Jordan Clarkson 63.6
Coby White 62.5
Norman Powell 60.0
Tyrese Haliburton 57.9
Brandon Ingram 57.1
Donovan Mitchell 57.1
Dennis Schröder 56.7
Giannis Antetokounmpo 56.5
DeMar DeRozan 56.3
De'Aaron Fox 55.6
Kevin Durant 55.6
Julius Randle 54.5
Kyrie Irving 53.8
Cade Cunningham 53.5
Jimmy Butler 52.9
Cam Thomas 52.5
Scottie Barnes 52.0
Tre Mann 51.9
Ja Morant 51.7
Josh Giddey 50.0
Luka Dončić 50.0
Tyrese Maxey 48.9
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 48.6
Scoot Henderson 48.4
LaMelo Ball 48.3
Tyler Herro 47.6
RJ Barrett 46.7
Trae Young 46.7
James Harden 46.4

my hunch is that conversion rate is generally going to improve thru experience

*************************
* would need to add FT's to this mix as well because FT's are a major component of generating points off drives:

Dejounte Murray 6.0
Zion Williamson 4.5
Paolo Banchero 4.4
Luka Dončić 3.8
Kevin Durant 3.3
Cam Thomas 3.2
James Harden 3.0
Jimmy Butler 3.0
Kyle Kuzma 3.0
DeMar DeRozan 2.8
Devin Booker 2.8
Scoot Henderson 2.8
Anfernee Simons 2.6
Collin Sexton 2.5
De'Aaron Fox 2.5
Ja Morant 2.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2.5
Deni Avdija 2.4

this stat needs to be gauged with the number of drives

***********************************

the scoring rate is track by pts and pts%; for points:

Tyrese Maxey 13.5
Luka Dončić 13.3
Jalen Brunson 12.5
Cam Thomas 12.2
Kevin Durant 11.3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 11.3
Cade Cunningham 11.0
Ja Morant 10.8
De'Aaron Fox 10.0
Dejounte Murray 10.0
LaMelo Ball 9.8
Norman Powell 9.8
Zion Williamson 9.8
James Harden 9.3
Jordan Clarkson 9.0
Scoot Henderson 9.0
Kyrie Irving 8.8
Dennis Schröder 8.6
Giannis Antetokounmpo 8.5

and for scoring rate (for volume drive players):

Kevin Durant 100
Norman Powell 97.5
Kyrie Irving 83.3
Tyrese Maxey 75.0
Luka Dončić 74.6
Giannis Antetokounmpo 73.9
Jordan Clarkson 73.5
Cam Thomas 70.1
DeMar DeRozan 69.6
Ja Morant 69.4
Damian Lillard 69.0
De'Aaron Fox 69.0
Paolo Banchero 68.9
Jaden Ivey 68.5
Anfernee Simons 65.6
Cade Cunningham 65.5
Donovan Mitchell 65.5
Jalen Williams 62.8
Jaylen Brown 62.5
LaMelo Ball 61.9
Kelly Oubre Jr. 60.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 59.2
Jalen Brunson 58.1
Anthony Edwards 58.0
Tre Mann 57.4
Scottie Barnes 56.6
Josh Giddey 55.8
Kyle Kuzma 55.6
Dennis Schröder 55.1
Julius Randle 54.7
Jalen Johnson 54.2
Tyler Herro 52.8
James Harden 52.1
Jimmy Butler 51.6
Zion Williamson 51.3
Jrue Holiday 48.0
Scoot Henderson 47.9
Tyrese Haliburton 47.2
Dejounte Murray 45.5
Darius Garland 45.1
Trae Young 44.8

* that isn't the entire picture either as players operate in dribble-drives with the dual roles of scoring and facilitating teammates. S you'd need to look at these volume driver in terms of assist percentage AND turnover percentage

Tyler Herro 18.9 - 1.9
Darius Garland 18.3 - 7.0
Jordan Poole 18.2 - 11.4
Jimmy Butler 16.1 - 0.0
Trae Young 14.9 - 5.7
Coby White 14.8 - 8.2
Donovan Mitchell 14.5 - 3.6
Ja Morant 14.5 - 9.7
RJ Barrett 14.3 - 5.7
Tre Mann 13.0 - 3.7
James Harden 12.7 - 7.0
Kyrie Irving 11.9 - 2.4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 11.8 - 1.3
Dennis Schröder 11.5 - 5.1
Josh Giddey 11.5 - 0.0
DeMar DeRozan 10.9 - 4.3
Scoot Henderson 10.6 - 5.3
Jalen Brunson 9.3 - 4.7

all in all, Scoot's driving skills are encouraging for a 20 year old but they need a lot of improvement

*************************************

probably most important is looking at Scoot last year vs this year

drives/game: rookie Scoot 12.0....sophomore Scoot 18.8
FG% on drives: rookie Scoot 41.2%....sophomore Scoot 48.4%
FTM on drives: rookie Scoot 1.2....sophomore Scoot 3.0
points/drive: rookie Scoot 5.8....sophomore Scoot 9.0
scoring rate: rookie Scoot 48.3%....sophomore Scoot 47.9%
assist rate: rookie Scoot 9.3%....sophomore Scoot 10.6%
turnover rate: rookie Scoot 8.7%....sophomore Scoot 5.3%

nothing real dramatic other than the fact that he has increased his volume of drives by 57% while also improving his efficiency and production. The most encouraging, for me at least, is his reduction in turnovers. Last year, his assist/turnover rate was 1.1; this season it's 2.0. Now that's a dramatic improvement

obviously, only a 5 game sample size, which is nearly useless, but considering how bad he looked last year, most of the time, this is all encouraging. Would be interesting to revisit these numbers 40 games into the season

 

[Predator]

Glad he’s playing better than Sebastian Telfair

 

[handiman]

Perhaps you mean "a strong finisher - unlike Ayton"?

Your hatred for Ayton clouds your perception more than I realized. Finishing is the strength of Ayton's game. It's creating that he's not particularly good at.

 

[KingSpeed]

We didn't "send out picks to dump Brogdon's salary" any more so than we sent out Nurk to dump Dame. That's just stupid.

‘The Washington Wizards have agreed to trade forward Deni Avdija to the Portland Trail Blazers in exchange for guard Malcolm Brogdon, the No. 14 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, a 2029 first-round pick and two future second-round picks.”

That’s 4 picks.

 

[RR7]

‘The Washington Wizards have agreed to trade forward Deni Avdija to the Portland Trail Blazers in exchange for guard Malcolm Brogdon, the No. 14 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, a 2029 first-round pick and two future second-round picks.”

That’s 4 picks.

It was about acquiring Avdija, not dumping Brogdon's expiring.
Learn the transactions, then post.

 

[Natebishop3]

It was about acquiring Avdija, not dumping Brogdon's expiring.
Learn the transactions, then post.

Kinda sad that Malcolm ended up being salary filler...... or maybe Washington figures he's worth a pick down the road.

 

[B-Roy]

@31 seconds, Scoot did finish with his left.

 

[Phatguysrule]

It was about acquiring Avdija, not dumping Brogdon's expiring.
Learn the transactions, then post.

I'd almost rather have those pics though... Hopefully I just haven't seen what he's capable of yet. Maybe it'll show when he settles in a bit more.

 

[Phatguysrule]

@31 seconds, Scoot did finish with his left.

Yes! Love to see this! That means he's at least working on it. And that means it'll come around.

 

[THE HCP]

No need to eat crow. This means as much as him struggling a ton last season. UPS and DOWNS. I've said 5 times on here....only played 60 games and some change in his career and is only 20. He'll go on a stretch this year where he is a mess and he'll get murdered on here.......I'll hold my judgement for a couple seasons. Happy for this kid. Hard worker!

 

[RR7]

I'd almost rather have those pics though... Hopefully I just haven't seen what he's capable of yet. Maybe it'll show when he settles in a bit more.

I prefer Avdija personally, but to each their own!

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

No need to eat crow. This means as much as him struggling a ton last season. UPS and DOWNS. I've said 5 times on here....only played 60 games and some change in his career and is only 20. He'll go on a stretch this year where he is a mess and he'll get murdered on here.......I'll hold my judgement for a couple seasons. Happy for this kid. Hard worker!

Sir, are you new here?

Half the board will pound their chest after a big game telling all the haters to eat crow, then after a bad game the other half of the board will say he is garbage and will never get better.

Round and round and round we go. It'll never stop.

 

[Phatguysrule]

I prefer Avdija personally, but to each their own!

Maybe I just haven't seen enough of him. I'm certainly not opposed to him. Maybe he just needs to develop a bit more... which would honestly be perfect. For 3 or 4 picks though, I would hope we'd be getting All Star caliber play out of the guy once we're ready to start winning.

So maybe you're right...

 

[Natebishop3]

@31 seconds, Scoot did finish with his left.

I don't understand how someone can play basketball full time and not know how to finish with both hands. I don't get it.

 

[Tyrant of Ants]

Once Scoot develops a consistent outside shot, he's going to be a handful. Scoot and SS will make a dynamic backcourt. Can't wait to see SS back in action.

 

[Phatguysrule]

I don't understand how someone can play basketball full time and not know how to finish with both hands. I don't get it.

He was always so athletic that he didn't need to. I see it all the time.

And it's probably not that he can't do it, rather that he's never had to do it in live action. So he's just not comfortable when he actually has to do it. So overplaying the right puts him in an uncomfortable position and then he shoots a lower percentage either trying to force it with the right or because he's not used to going left.

The hope is that with quality NBA coaching he will be finishing left-handed, live, in practice and in training so that it'll just happen in a game and he doesn't have to think about it.

That's part of the problem with playing down. And why I always want my daughters playing at the highest level possible. You just get so many bad habits playing against people you can easily dominate.

I think Scoot would have been far better off going to college.

 

[Tyrant of Ants]

I wonder if he'll have a shot at MIP.

That's going to be difficult. But if he's in the running, it means he's made the next leap.

Good job on calling the win against the Clippers. Was a very entertaining game!

 

[wizenheimer]

Maybe I just haven't seen enough of him. I'm certainly not opposed to him. Maybe he just needs to develop a bit more... which would honestly be perfect. For 3 or 4 picks though, I would hope we'd be getting All Star caliber play out of the guy once we're ready to start winning.

So maybe you're right...

generically, two first's + two 2nd's + Brogdon is a fairly steep initial price

then, you have to start adjusting that price by circumstances. The first adjustment is that Brogdon needed surgery on his thumb in early October. That needs to be factored especially considering Brogdon's substantial injury history and missed game record. With yet another injury setback, his trade value would be lower this season than it was in June

next adjustment is Brogdon't salary + Carrington's (as the 14th pick Portland traded). That's 26.9M vs Avdija's 15.6M. So, the Blazers have reduced this year's cap by 10.3M, and with the Vulcan's always peering over Cronin's shoulder, that's a definite factor. Without that cap adjustment, the Blazers would be 6M over the tax line and priority one according to the Seattle mothership would be getting under

another factor that may come into play, (but probably not because of the Vulcans), is that the Blazers have a 7M TPE (actually a bit less than 7M, IIRC) from the Brogdon trade. I'm guessing that TPE will simply expire like the Hart-Payton-Lillard TPE's did because of questionable cap management

but those are all secondary to what Avdija becomes as a player. He'll turn 24 in a couple of months so he's unlikely to have the generic upside of a 20 year old. But it's almost certain he'll play better than he has so far

the one big unknown component of the price is where that 2029 1st lands. It could be a 20th pick; or it could be a 5th pick.

 

[Natebishop3]

generically, two first's + two 2nd's + Brogdon is a fairly steep initial price

then, you have to start adjusting that price by circumstances. The first adjustment is that Brogdon needed surgery on his thumb in early October. That needs to be factored especially considering Brogdon's substantial injury history and missed game record. With yet another injury setback, his trade value would be lower this season than it was in June

next adjustment is Brogdon't salary + Carrington's (as the 14th pick Portland traded). That's 26.9M vs Avdija's 15.6M. So, the Blazers have reduced this year's cap by 10.3M, and with the Vulcan's always peering over Cronin's shoulder, that's a definite factor. Without that cap adjustment, the Blazers would be 6M over the tax line and priority one according to the Seattle mothership would be getting under

another factor that may come into play, (but probably not because of the Vulcans), is that the Blazers have a 7M TPE (actually a bit less than 7M, IIRC) from the Brogdon trade. I'm guessing that TPE will simply expire like the Hart-Payton-Lillard TPE's did because of questionable cap management

but those are all secondary to what Avdija becomes as a player. He'll turn 24 in a couple of months so he's unlikely to have the generic upside of a 20 year old. But it's almost certain he'll play better than he has so far

the one big unknown component of the price is where that 2029 1st lands. It could be a 20th pick; or it could be a 5th pick.

The odds though of us having two top 5 picks was..... low.

 

[wizenheimer]

The odds though of us having two top 5 picks was..... low.

no doubt

odds quite a bit higher for two lottery picks though

 

[Natebishop3]

no doubt

odds quite a bit higher for two lottery picks though

Joe was rolling the dice for sure.

He's hoping that two of the three picks are mediocre.