SharpesTriumph
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Good article over on BlazersEdge
https://www.blazersedge.com/2020/12...n-dec-21-deadline-2021-restricted-free-agents
The Trail Blazers have captured the attention of free agents, pundits and fans alike with their comprehensive improvements this offseason. The Blazers addressed their defensive deficiencies with the additions of Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. President of Basketball Operations Neil Olshey, following a year that was often sidetracked by injuries, bolstered the roster’s depth by re-acquiring Enes Kanter and reaching a one-year deal with Harry Giles.
But there is one move the Blazers need to make to put a bow on an already impressive transaction window. It is time for Gary Trent Jr. to get a new contract.
Financial Impact
The Blazers are squeezed right up against the tax line heading into the 2020-21 season. That window is so tight that the Blazers, as outlined by Olshey last week, will not fill the final roster spot at this time. In regards to a potential Trent extension, the Blazers’ current payroll would emerge unscathed if a deal is agreed upon prior to the Dec. 21 deadline.
Current cap structure aside, the Blazers can offer Trent an attractive four-year, $51 million extension. Back in October, Blazer’s Edge cap guru Eric Griffith detailed the extension options that Portland can offer the blossoming sharpshooter.
Since Trent signed a three-year contract two years ago, the Blazers can offer an extension that adds as much as four years to his current contract. The first year of the new deal maxes out at either 120 percent of Trent’s salary for next season or 120 percent of the average league salary. Trent is set to make about $1.66 million next season so he will certainly opt for the latter option
Moving forward, the Blazers would lose what little wiggle room they possess in the 2021 offseason. If Trent agreed to a $51 million deal, he would form a quartet of guard-like players on Portland’s roster set to earn eight-digit annual salaries in the 2021-22 season (assuming Rodney Hood’s non-guaranteed money is picked up).
Why Now?
Given the meager restricted free agent market that unfolded in the past two weeks, it is hard to imagine that offer sheets will emerge as breeding ground for deals in 2021. Only Bogdan Bogdanovic agreed to a deal with an outside team as a restricted free agent. Next year’s class could present a drastically different landscape.
In his forward-looking assessment of the 2021 offseason, ESPN’s Bobby Marks explained that an expanded field of teams with cap space should combine with an attractive restricted free agent class to produce fireworks.
Without more extensions agreements between now and the Dec. 21 deadline, the 2021 market could be flooded with restricted free agents, including John Collins, Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Devonte’ Graham and Gary Trent Jr. Rival front offices likely will be more aggressive in forcing incumbent teams to match offer sheets on those players.
A cash-infused competitive market could force the Blazers to decide on matching a contract that would easily fall in line with Bogdanovic’s $72 million deal and above De’Anthony Melton’s new $35 million contract with the Grizzlies. The Blazers — and Trent — could cut out that variance with an extension in the run up to the 2020-21 season.
Long-Term Fit
On the surface, throwing an early extension at a player that has a relatively small track record of performing at a high level seems overly aggressive. But Trent’s shooting chops, defensive acumen, and youth make him a perfect complement to the Blazers’ current backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.
Anfernee Simons’ journey to becoming a facilitator is still underway. A lack of a true backup point guard, coupled with Simons’ development, sets the stage for a continued lineup deployment that features staggered minutes from Lillard and McCollum. In that scenario, a lucrative extension for Trent, even at this stage of his career, turns from palatable to desirable. In a bonafide sixth-man role, alongside a premier NBA guard at all times, Trent has the foundation to outperform his salary.
At 21 years old, Trent is far from reaching his athletic apex. An early extension agreement puts the Blazers in position to pay for future production, a trend that has emerged in Olshey’s recent signings (Jones and Giles). More importantly, locking in Trent sharpens the focus on Portland’s long-term picture. Zach Collins’ next contract looms large. That tension would be reduced if one of the Blazers’ future pieces was already pencilled in on the ledger.
To put it simply, a long-term deal for Trent would put a cherry on top of a strong offseason. In a stronger free agent market with reduced flexibility the Blazers could easily find themselves in a less advantageous position in 2021. A new extension agreement between both parties mitigates the headache of a potentially-rougher offseason and it would allow Trent to emerge as an early top-earner from the 2018 class. However modest, a win-win is a win-win.
previous article detailing how much Blazers can offer
https://www.blazersedge.com/2020/10...r-and-the-trail-blazers-agree-to-an-extension
Gary Trent Jr. was one of the few bright spots for the Trail Blazers this season. The second-year guard emerged, somewhat unexpectedly, as a rotation mainstay during the latter half of the season, averaging 13.7 points per game on 60.4 percent true shooting after the all-star break.
Yesterday’s news that Trent had signed with the Klutch Sports Group had Blazermaniacs asking “what’s next?” for Trent when his contract expires at the end of next season. Ideally President of Basketball Operations Neil Olshey will find a way to retain the 3-point deadeye, but the path that negotiation follows may turn out to be more circuitous than the team would prefer.
How much can the Blazers offer Trent this offseason?
Since Trent signed a three-year contract two years ago, the Blazers can offer an extension that adds as much as four years to his current contract. The first year of the new deal maxes out at either 120 percent of Trent’s salary for next season or 120 percent of the average league salary. Trent is set to make about $1.66 million next season so he will certainly opt for the latter option.
Assuming the maximum annual eight percent raises, that would translate to a four-year, $51 million extension, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks:
What happens if Trent doesn’t sign an extension?
If Trent does not sign an extension this offseason, he will become a restricted free agent (RFA) in 2021. As an RFA, the Blazers will have a right of first refusal to match any offers Trent receives from another team. Portland has his full Bird Rights so they can generally exceed the salary cap by any amount to retain him.
Another complication is that it’s unclear what the 2021-22 salary cap will look like. The league is reportedly trying to keep the cap stable next season, and it’s possible they extend the status quo an additional season after that. A depressed cap would put a squeeze on contracts for mid-salary players and may push Trent and others toward accepting the full mid-level exception of about $10 million.
Will Trent and the Blazers agree to an extension?
Here’s the tricky part for Olshey: Trent’s play this season demonstrated that he is likely a solid NBA role player. This is not a Wade Baldwin situation where hyperactivity masked an unsustainable style of play. Trent looked comfortable and under control on defense for the most part, and has knocked down over 40 percent of his 300+ career 3-point attempts. That’s pretty solid for a second round pick!
With that said, there would be a significant amount of risk for the team if they lock Gary into an eight-figure salary. Trent does not have the multi-season track record needed to guarantee that his 3-point shooting won’t fade over time — especially as teams key in on him defensively and coach Terry Stotts features Trent more heavily in the offense (flare screens, please!).
Trent’s shooting will likely work out — I have no stats or analytics to back this up but he just appeared too damn confident and locked in for his accuracy to fall off a cliff. Defensive limitations, however, are also a concern when considering a $51-million extension.
As mentioned above, he has looked generally solid defensively but two flaws do raise eyebrows. First, Trent does not have the size to match-up with the elite forwards of the league like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Kawhi Leonard:
This is a problem if Trent is expected to be the primary wing playing alongside Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. And with an 8-figure salary he almost has to be in that role.
Additionally, Trent still has recurring lapses on basic defensive fundamentals at times:
Unlike size disparities the lapses in concentration can, of course, be corrected. But given the defensive limitations of Lillard and McCollum, the idea of paying $11 million to a player who still needs to make these improvements should be very carefully considered. Nobody wants Allen Crabbe 2.0.
The takeaway is that while Trent is likely to develop into a solid role player, he still needs a more extensive track record and several enhancements to his game to prove that he merits even the full MLE. Otherwise the Blazers would be better off signing solid but marginal role players using cap exceptions in future years (e.g. Seth Curry).
Why Klutch Sports?
This is where Klutch Sports comes into play. After bidding against himself to overpay multiple players (i.e. McCollum, Meyers Leonard, and Maurice Harkless), Olshey seems to have come to his senses in the last couple years. Most notably, Jusuf Nurkic signed a team-friendly deal in 2018.
Not so coincidentally, Nurkic has since signed with Klutch. Presumably based on their reputation for being extremely aggressive and player friendly in negotiations. The tl;dr here is that Rich Paul and co. aren’t going to accept a low-ball offer on Trent’s behalf. This, combined with Trent’s pending RFA status during a slight salary cap depression, suggests that it will be difficult for the two sides to find a middle ground during the offseason.
