Injury Excuse Propaganda

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The title to this thread should've been "injury excuse-apolooza"
 
wizenheimer said:
ok

my point was kind of narrow actually, that being if you go by winshares, the impact has been overstated. Nurkic & Zach accounted for 10.7 winshares over a full season (yeah, less than a full season...about 75 games avg). If you projected Whiteside and Melo the rest of the way, assuming they stay healthy and hit say the 76 game mark for Whiteside and 65 mark of Melo, while Portland maintains the same winning rate, then Whiteside + Melo would total 11.3 winsahres. Let me repeat that, Nurkic + Zach = 10.7 winshares while Whiteside + Melo = 11.3 winshares

now, while I really believe that too many people here are either significantly overstating the impact of injuries or are significantly underrating the impact of Whiteside, I recognize that there is probably something a little skewed about that equation above. But frankly, I think a large part of that skew, if it exists, could be tied to the massive changes in the roster from last season to this, as much or more than the injuries, and they have not been good changes

don't get me wrong, I'm not dismissing the impact of the injuries. But I believe you have to set the Nurkic/Whiteside component off to the side because of the debatable level, if any, of the downgrade. For me the bottom line was this years' team started with crappy perimeter defense and weak rebounding, even with Whiteside. Both were significant downgrades from last season, And when the season began, game 1, the bench was Simons, Bazemore, Hezonja, Tolliver, and Skal. That's a pretty funky bench
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I think the part that is missed about the Nurk / Whiteside discussion is the bench / depth. Say Nurk and Whiteside are totally equal (they arent), but the back ups this year are terrible, its been Tolliver and sometimes Skal, never Zach cause he’s been hurt. Last year Kanter, ML, Zach, Skal ar least it wasnt Small Forwards... To be fair to NO he did have Zach, Pau, and Skal as back up C’s to start the year. The injuries havent killed their Starters nearly as much as its turned their bench into maybe the worst in the NBA. Having basically their entire front court hurt, having a backup that never played then retired, and then the other back ups getting hurt, I dont think any team could deal with that well. Even say the Lakers say they lost all the starters sans AD and LBJ, and a few back ups, it hurt them a lot.

Edit: Especially when you consider what are the Blazers bad at rebounding and defense. Having more bigs could help even if they arent great players its better then having one or two healthy bigs on the entire roster.
 
wizenheimer said:
ok

my point was kind of narrow actually, that being if you go by winshares, the impact has been overstated. Nurkic & Zach accounted for 10.7 winshares over a full season (yeah, less than a full season...about 75 games avg). If you projected Whiteside and Melo the rest of the way, assuming they stay healthy and hit say the 76 game mark for Whiteside and 65 mark of Melo, while Portland maintains the same winning rate, then Whiteside + Melo would total 11.3 winsahres. Let me repeat that, Nurkic + Zach = 10.7 winshares while Whiteside + Melo = 11.3 winshares

now, while I really believe that too many people here are either significantly overstating the impact of injuries or are significantly underrating the impact of Whiteside, I recognize that there is probably something a little skewed about that equation above. But frankly, I think a large part of that skew, if it exists, could be tied to the massive changes in the roster from last season to this, as much or more than the injuries, and they have not been good changes

don't get me wrong, I'm not dismissing the impact of the injuries. But I believe you have to set the Nurkic/Whiteside component off to the side because of the debatable level, if any, of the downgrade. For me the bottom line was this years' team started with crappy perimeter defense and weak rebounding, even with Whiteside. Both were significant downgrades from last season, And when the season began, game 1, the bench was Simons, Bazemore, Hezonja, Tolliver, and Skal. That's a pretty funky bench
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Agreed. And you're actually going one step further than I was brave enough to do. I simply looked at the 'hole' created by injuries and tried to estimate the 'size' of the hole. You're looking at how well the Blazers have filled that hole. That gets into a pretty complex discussion (value over replacement) that's very difficult to quantify with stats alone.

I'm a big Whiteside fan. I think he's filled that center spot very well. With that being said, the Blazers should be winning more games in my opinion. But wow, that bench is thin. Especially with Bigs. Oh well. I'm still optimistic that we can give a good push for the end of the year. I never buy in to the 'lose now so we can draft better and win later' mentality.
 
42N8Bounce said:
Agreed. And you're actually going one step further than I was brave enough to do. I simply looked at the 'hole' created by injuries and tried to estimate the 'size' of the hole. You're looking at how well the Blazers have filled that hole. That gets into a pretty complex discussion (value over replacement) that's very difficult to quantify with stats alone.

I'm a big Whiteside fan. I think he's filled that center spot very well. With that being said, the Blazers should be winning more games in my opinion. But wow, that bench is thin. Especially with Bigs. Oh well. I'm still optimistic that we can give a good push for the end of the year. I never buy in to the 'lose now so we can draft better and win later' mentality.
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sure.

yeah, the bench right now pretty much sucks and the opening night bench wasn't much better. Signing Gasol 2 months after foot surgery sure looks like a foolish gamble. I also think there was a deliberate strategy to clear competition for playing time for Collins. We've seen stuff like that before

I'm not a tanking advocate either, but if the Blazers get 10 or 11 games below .500 prior to the deadline, Portland could dump Whiteside & Bazemore for other expiring contracts on much worse players, maybe pick up a few 2nd round picks, drop their tax bill, reduce Dame and CJ's minutes and tank without blatantly tanking. At that point, that strategy might yield the best outcome for this season
 
TWolves just beat Blazers by 20+ points without their beat player... and Neil wants to excuse being 7 games under .500 near mid season on injuries to Hood (8-12 when he was playing) and Collins (averaging 9 points and 4 rebounds)... Neil must think fans are stupid
 
So let me guess, getting blown out by the TWolves without their star Karl Anthony-Towns was due to injuries? Only the Blazers can use injuries as an excuse with their league high $148 mil payroll... but other teams in the league missing better players still find ways to win... Neil must think fans are complete morons.
 
Blazers are only team in entire NBA averaging under 20 assist per game... they are at 19.6, which is 1.3 assist behind the next worst team... the Knicks! Neil spends $148 mil on this?!
 
Neil O. Shyster said:
Blazers are only team in entire NBA averaging under 20 assist per game... they are at 19.6, which is 1.3 assist behind the next worst team... the Knicks! Neil spends $148 mil on this?!
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just a quibble, but as far as I can tell, the payroll is 145.2M, and that's not locked in till after the trade deadline
 
Neil will probably not be allowed by Jody to trade Whiteside or Bazemore and take on salary because of this dumpster fire he put together with a league high $148 mil payroll. With his refusal to trade CJ, those salaries are the last tools left to improve the team. Welcome to purgatory for the next 4 years while Neil, Stotts, and CJ are still getting paid with no accountability, drinking wine together and laughing at the stupid fans.
 
wizenheimer said:
I also think there was a deliberate strategy to clear competition for playing time for Collins. We've seen stuff like that before.
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This has been ignored, and should be said in other threads, too. It's Olshey's historical pattern to idolize his draftee and dump better, more experienced players, and not because they cost much more.
 
hoopsjock said:
C'mon Lanny, that was a response to Tortured. I was sarcastically mocking that.
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Sorry, you've just hit on one of my many character flaws. I take a lot of statements literally.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Good post.

The issue to me is that even if they start getting guys back I dont really expect them to be “back” for a while after they start playing. For instance I dont expect Nurk to jump in and look like he did last year his second game back.

Ive said Melo’s awful a bunch of times and I believe that, but I would love him as a bench scorer. Just having to play him major minutes as a starting PF yikes... If they signed him as fire power from the bench I would be all for that.

Again I love your posts!
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It's kind of obvious and a given that guys need to work their way back into the lineup after a lengthy injury.
Have to agree 42N8Bounce's post with charts was excellent.
 
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Neil O. Shyster said:
So let me guess, getting blown out by the TWolves without their star Karl Anthony-Towns was due to injuries? Only the Blazers can use injuries as an excuse with their league high $148 mil payroll... but other teams in the league missing better players still find ways to win... Neil must think fans are complete morons.
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facts
 
If the Blazers swapped Dame/CJ for a healthy Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, and all else was equal, do people in here actually think this team would be 8 games under .500 right now? This record is inexcusable when the star players are healthy getting paid over $30 mil apiece and also have a guy like Whiteside having a career year... this continual pattern of no accountability is sickening as a fan. This team has no ball movement with ISO ball CJ. DEAD LAST in NBA in assist again.
 
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Lanny said:
But with Nurkic, Collins, Hood and Gasol out.
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Made western conference finals without Nurk, last season and added Whiteside who is having a better year than Nurk ever has. Blazers were 8-12 with Hood playing. Collins was averaging only 9 points and 4 rebounds and was replaced with Melo who is playing better. Dame, CJ, Whiteside, Bazemore ALL HEALTHY getting paid $110 mil combined and can’t even play .500 ball... in fact, 8 games under .500 at mid season. DEAD LAST in entire NBA in assists.
 
Neil O. Shyster said:
Made western conference finals without Nurk, last season and added Whiteside who is having a better year than Nurk ever has. Blazers were 8-12 with Hood playing. Collins was averaging only 9 points and 4 rebounds and was replaced with Melo who is playing better. Dame, CJ, Whiteside, Bazemore ALL HEALTHY getting paid $110 mil combined and can’t even play .500 ball... in fact, 8 games under .500 at mid season. DEAD LAST in entire NBA in assists.
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Sorry dude but this post is ridiculous.
 
Neil O. Shyster said:
Made western conference finals without Nurk, last season and added Whiteside who is having a better year than Nurk ever has. Blazers were 8-12 with Hood playing. Collins was averaging only 9 points and 4 rebounds and was replaced with Melo who is playing better. Dame, CJ, Whiteside, Bazemore ALL HEALTHY getting paid $110 mil combined and can’t even play .500 ball... in fact, 8 games under .500 at mid season. DEAD LAST in entire NBA in assists.
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Not true. We had Nurkic most of the regular season which allowed us a record that got us into the playoffs. Did you forget that part?
 
Neil not trading Whiteside or Bazemore contracts is him admitting failure. It shows the playoff run was a fluke and he cannot go over the tax line because Dame/CJ combo is not good enough to compete for a title. But Dame/CJ is good enough to sell tickets and that’s all that matters to Neil.
 
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