Is Portland the best team in the West?

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illmatic99 said:
jody might need to pay the tax this year... this team looks like it might need some investments come trade deadline
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I mentioned this in another thread: if Portland stays under the tax this season their repeater-tax clock re-sets to zero. Meaning that the Blazers could spend the next 3 season over the tax line without paying repeater tax

and with the 'need' to re-sign Grant, Hart, and Winslow, staying under the tax line this season might be really advantageous
 
wizenheimer said:
I mentioned this in another thread: if Portland stays under the tax this season their repeater-tax clock re-sets to zero. Meaning that the Blazers could spend the next 3 season over the tax line without paying repeater tax

and with the 'need' to re-sign Grant, Hart, and Winslow, staying under the tax line this season might be really advantageous
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If we look like we have a legit chance in the playoffs this year, the prospects of future repeater possibility is irrelevant to me
 
I'm starting to think Joe Cronin is underrated as a roster builder....and Chauncey as a coach...both these guys should win awards this season for their impact on last season's lottery team..Chauncey should get coach of the month if we win a couple more here in Oct
 
illmatic99 said:
If we look like we have a legit chance in the playoffs this year, the prospects of future repeater possibility is irrelevant to me
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that's fine

but I was talking about the perspective of Cronin and Seattle. If they don't believe the Blazers can be a contender this season, and that sure looks to be the case, then protecting options for the next 3 seasons makes a lot of sense considering that Grant, Hart, & Winslow could all be looking for new contacts this this summer. Re-setting the repeater tax clock to zero is no small thing

I think that the olshey era demonstrated thoroughly that selling out everything just to make the playoffs in any single season can be short-sighted
 
wizenheimer said:
that's fine

but I was talking about the perspective of Cronin and Seattle. If they don't believe the Blazers can be a contender this season, and that sure looks to be the case, then protecting options for the next 3 seasons makes a lot of sense considering that Grant, Hart, & Winslow could all be looking for new contacts this this summer. Re-setting the repeater tax clock to zero is no small thing

I think that the olshey era demonstrated thoroughly that selling out everything just to make the playoffs in any single season can be short-sighted
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I believe the repeater tax is already reset.

The criteria is being in the tax 3 of the last 4 seasons. Portland has been out of the tax the last 2 ('20-'21 & '21-'22). Therefore, they are in the clear in that regard.
https://imageio.forbes.com/specials...BA-Luxury-Tax-Payments--2001---2022/960x0.jpg
 
CJ_is_Gone said:
I believe the repeater tax is already reset.

The criteria is being in the tax 3 of the last 4 seasons. Portland has been out of the tax the last 2 ('20-'21 & '21-'22). Therefore, they are in the clear in that regard.
https://imageio.forbes.com/specials...BA-Luxury-Tax-Payments--2001---2022/960x0.jpg
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well that's good then

I still think, with the 'need' to re-sign Grant, Hart (probably), and Winslow, the Blazers would be inclined to have next season as zero on the repeater counter
 
West Teams better than the Blazers (in no particular order)

Suns, Warriors, Pelicans, Clippers, Grizzlies
 
inconceivable said:
West Teams better than the Blazers (in no particular order)

Suns, Warriors, Pelicans, Clippers, Grizzlies
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Still not sure I understand this one and why it’s such a popular statement.

Should read “Kawhi Leonard when healthy”.

I used to really want Paul George in PDX. When it was clear his time in Indy was coming to an end. His time with the Clippers changed my mind. With our spanking of the Clippers and the bye-bye being a key contributing factor to that change.
 
AmirIcon said:
Winning AND developing his first round pick? WHAAATTT!!?!!?!?!

Who knew you could do both. Thanks, Terry.
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Wait a minute? I'm not on this to protect Terry Stotts. Just to set the record straight a bit on this seemingly consistent thought process.
Terry had a number of picks during his time here. Dame 6th pick who obviously played and developed. CJ 10th pick who played and was developed.
Then Meyers Leonard 10th Pick who was given more chances than could ever been expected.
Zach Collins 10th pick who was given lots of playing time.
Nassir Little wasn't picked until #25 and we still wonder if he will turn it on?
Picked 24th Simons was given as much as could have ever been expected his rookie year. Maybe could have been pushed faster? Hard to say?

Anybody else picked didn't even stay in the league? Terry developed just fine for the picks he was given. Olshey constructed that roster.
 
Would it be fair to say we've seen Super Dame so far in the 4 games? He's been playing great and it's resulted in three narrow wins and a blowout where the role players really stepped up. When everything is going right, this team has a chance to be a top 4 team but that means little to no major injuries, role players stepping up every night and Dame being in his prime Dame. Take just one piece out of that equation and it's back to a 7 or 8 seed with a likely first round exit, take two out and it's back to the lottery we go.
 
illmatic99 said:
jody might need to pay the tax this year... this team looks like it might need some investments come trade deadline
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Can they? I don't fully understand the Hard Cap? Can they just sign a player or does it have to be through trade?
 
bigbailes said:
Would it be fair to say we've seen Super Dame so far in the 4 games? He's been playing great and it's resulted in three narrow wins and a blowout where the role players really stepped up. When everything is going right, this team has a chance to be a top 4 team but that means little to no major injuries, role players stepping up every night and Dame being in his prime Dame. Take just one piece out of that equation and it's back to a 7 or 8 seed with a likely first round exit, take two out and it's back to the lottery we go.
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I'd add that first win vs the Kings to what the Role players have brought to the season.
 
bigbailes said:
Would it be fair to say we've seen Super Dame so far in the 4 games? He's been playing great and it's resulted in three narrow wins and a blowout where the role players really stepped up. When everything is going right, this team has a chance to be a top 4 team but that means little to no major injuries, role players stepping up every night and Dame being in his prime Dame. Take just one piece out of that equation and it's back to a 7 or 8 seed with a likely first round exit, take two out and it's back to the lottery we go.
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You can't really argue with this, because it is true for most teams every year. You take their star away and if their role players don't step up.....you are lottery bound.
 
bigbailes said:
Would it be fair to say we've seen Super Dame so far in the 4 games? He's been playing great and it's resulted in three narrow wins and a blowout where the role players really stepped up. When everything is going right, this team has a chance to be a top 4 team but that means little to no major injuries, role players stepping up every night and Dame being in his prime Dame. Take just one piece out of that equation and it's back to a 7 or 8 seed with a likely first round exit, take two out and it's back to the lottery we go.
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For many teams there's not much margin for error/injuries.
I mean look at the teams that are picked to contend for the west conference, most are susceptible to in juries historically. For me its still too early to access just how good the blazers can be and yes they could also be at the mercy of injuries too.
I think I picked them to win 47 games before the season starts, whats your guess?
 
bigbailes said:
Would it be fair to say we've seen Super Dame so far in the 4 games? He's been playing great and it's resulted in three narrow wins and a blowout where the role players really stepped up. When everything is going right, this team has a chance to be a top 4 team but that means little to no major injuries, role players stepping up every night and Dame being in his prime Dame. Take just one piece out of that equation and it's back to a 7 or 8 seed with a likely first round exit, take two out and it's back to the lottery we go.
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Yeah, true. But if we took LBJ off the Lakers, they'd be 0-3. Oh wait....
 
Hoopguru said:
For many teams there's not much margin for error/injuries.
I mean look at the teams that are picked to contend for the west conference, most are susceptible to in juries historically. For me its still too early to access just how good the blazers can be and yes they could also be at the mercy of injuries too.
I think I picked them to win 47 games before the season starts, whats your guess?
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47 to 50 just feels right ... before the season I had major reservations about how good out of the gate Dame would be but those fears have obviously been put to rest. I still think any finish above 7th with this team is a major win on the season.
 
8. Portland Trail Blazers
2022-23 record: 4-0
Preseason ranking: 21

There's something brewing in Portland. The Blazers are 4-0, with an overtime win against Phoenix, a thrilling two-point victory over the Lakers and a rout of the Nuggets. Damian Lillard is heating up with two 41-point games, Anfernee Simons drilled seven 3s against Denver, Jusuf Nurkic is healthy and offseason addition Jerami Grant is starting to fit in. -- Youngmisuk

Quite the jump!
 
Wizard Mentor said:
Yeah, true. But if we took LBJ off the Lakers, they'd be 0-3. Oh wait....
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Not sure there is much he can do with that roster, outside of AD, there just isn't much talent anywhere to be seen. I'm sure he makes them better, but they still aren't very good!
 
Fairly-Hard said:
Wait a minute? I'm not on this to protect Terry Stotts. Just to set the record straight a bit on this seemingly consistent thought process.
Terry had a number of picks during his time here. Dame 6th pick who obviously played and developed. CJ 10th pick who played and was developed.
Then Meyers Leonard 10th Pick who was given more chances than could ever been expected.
Zach Collins 10th pick who was given lots of playing time.
Nassir Little wasn't picked until #25 and we still wonder if he will turn it on?
Picked 24th Simons was given as much as could have ever been expected his rookie year. Maybe could have been pushed faster? Hard to say?

Anybody else picked didn't even stay in the league? Terry developed just fine for the picks he was given. Olshey constructed that roster.
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I think people need to stop conflating developing with playing time. Terry didn't develop Simons. He played him but didn't let him get his because he wanted Ant to force feed Melo. Stotts had Mo Williams ahead of CJ in the rotation. He also was playing Mario Hezonja and Anthony Tolliver ahead of Nassir Little. Oh, and he didn't at all develop Noah Vonleh. Now Vonleh is a contributor on a great Boston team. After an initial successful showing, Meyers became strictly a stretch 5 because Terry wanted to stretch the floor.

Olshey constructed the roster according to what Terry wanted. It's a fallacy to say he didn't have defensive players. He did. Wenyen Gabriel was a terrific defensive player and opted for Mario/Tolliver.

Stotts didn't develop much.
 
bigbailes said:
Would it be fair to say we've seen Super Dame so far in the 4 games? He's been playing great and it's resulted in three narrow wins and a blowout where the role players really stepped up. When everything is going right, this team has a chance to be a top 4 team but that means little to no major injuries, role players stepping up every night and Dame being in his prime Dame. Take just one piece out of that equation and it's back to a 7 or 8 seed with a likely first round exit, take two out and it's back to the lottery we go.
Click to expand...
Sure and if Giannis, Tatum or Luka got hurt how would those teams do?
 
Shaboid said:
8. Portland Trail Blazers
2022-23 record: 4-0
Preseason ranking: 21

There's something brewing in Portland. The Blazers are 4-0, with an overtime win against Phoenix, a thrilling two-point victory over the Lakers and a rout of the Nuggets. Damian Lillard is heating up with two 41-point games, Anfernee Simons drilled seven 3s against Denver, Jusuf Nurkic is healthy and offseason addition Jerami Grant is starting to fit in. -- Youngmisuk

Quite the jump!
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Crazy what i just listened to on ESPN with Vince Carter giving the Bucks the "Team to beat" mantle in the east but was pretty much clueless about the Blazers 4-0 start and kind of sounded like he thought CJ was out injured or something? He went on saying he wasn't real sure about where they would end up play-in possible 10,9, 8 team and IF they get through the play-in they might be the 7 or 8 seed? (Duh)
Seriously it was like he was told to say something (Just whatever) about the Blazers? No thought or even a look at who they have beat so far?
 
AmirIcon said:
Terry didn't develop Simons.
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I would bet Anfernee Simons himself would disagree with you here. He played the kid and he coached him for 3 years. He was playing behind two of the best guards in the league. He played him 70 games in his 2nd season and 64 games in his 3rd. If you think that is conflating development with playing time then i don't know what to tell you? Playing time is exactly what that kid needed to develop.
By the way Vonleh started a bunch of games for Stotts? A grand total of 97 games? How do you figure that guy was not in the developmental stage? Then he bounced from team to team and eventually ended up out of the league? Okay so he has 4 games with Boston this year. Nobody in their wildest dreams would think Vonleh didn't get his chances?
 
Fairly-Hard said:
Crazy what i just listened to on ESPN with Vince Carter giving the Bucks the "Team to beat" mantle in the east but was pretty much clueless about the Blazers 4-0 start and kind of sounded like he thought CJ was out injured or something? He went on saying he wasn't real sure about where they would end up play-in possible 10,9, 8 team and IF they get through the play-in they might be the 7 or 8 seed? (Duh)
Seriously it was like he was told to say something (Just whatever) about the Blazers? No thought or even a look at who they have beat so far?
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Not all former players are great analysts. Not surprising.
 
Fairly-Hard said:
I guess i read "This Year" as the current year?
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yeah, I misread

Portland is hard-capped meaning they can't exceed the Apron for any reason. The Apron is 156.98M. Portland's taxable salaries are 150.2M (which is 67K under the tax threshold). Meaning the Blazers have around 6.7M in maneuverable margin

so, practically speaking they could make a trade(s) for 6.7M more incoming salary than they send out. They have no exception other than minimum salary exceptions to sign players.

what Portland does have is a 6.5M trade exception from the RoCo trade; and a 3.3M exception from the NAW trade with Utah. Either of those would fit into the margin Portland has under the Apron
 
wizenheimer said:
yeah, I misread

Portland is hard-capped meaning they can't exceed the Apron for any reason. The Apron is 156.98M. Portland's taxable salaries are 150.2M (which is 67K under the tax threshold). Meaning the Blazers have around 6.7M in maneuverable margin

so, practically speaking they could make a trade(s) for 6.7M more incoming salary than they send out. They have no exception other than minimum salary exceptions to sign players.

what Portland does have is a 6.5M trade exception from the RoCo trade; and a 3.3M exception from the NAW trade with Utah. Either of those would fit into the margin Portland has under the Apron
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Thank you for clearing that up for me. So technically they can sign a player but can only spend up to 6.7 million at most? Or is this only incoming trade value?
 
Fairly-Hard said:
Can they? I don't fully understand the Hard Cap? Can they just sign a player or does it have to be through trade?
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The Hard Cap is ~$6M over the lux tax line.
Portland is currently sitting ~$60k UNDER the lux tax line.

In theory, Portland could sign a player for ~$4M using the Bi-annual exception or make a trade as long as the net salary increase is <$6M.

The biggest factor in all of this, is NOT actually paying the lux tax. It's that Portland would loose out of the tax re-distribution from the other tax teams.
Currently there projects to be 11 tax paying teams with a total bill of approximately $694M. There may be some teams that make moves to try and lower/avoid the tax. So say there are 10 teams paying a bill $680M. I believe the league takes half & distributes the other half (although the league is not required) to the remaining 20 teams.

By going OVER the tax line, Portland will forfeit approximately $17M of revenue (paid as a distribution from the other tax teams).

So ANY move that would increase the teams salary (even signing a guy to a 10-day contract) has to be viewed in the lens of "Are they worth giving up $17M?"
With that in mind, I would be flabbergasted if Portland went into the tax this season.
 
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