LA gone before or on draft day

[illmatic99]

I don't think NO can convince PA to trade LA and take a step back in the short term. I don't think he'll even try to as his job security will come into question.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Pau Gasol traded for expirings, 2 late firsts, and rights to a second rounder, to fit description. Could be disgruntled player, could be a team needing to rebuild and dump salary, especially under a new CBA.

Fair enough, that's a historical. It's one that was completely dogged at the time because there were GMs who came out on the record saying they would've offered more, but let's go with it. First, we can't offer 2 1sts. Second, we have no expiring contracts until next year, and they're Wes and LMA and Freeland. So if you're saying we can get a 28 y/o disgruntled All-Star who wasn't staying with the team who drafted him once he became a FA (sound familiar?) with Batum, Leonard, a 2018 1st and Kostas, then you've made your case on the best strategy going forward. Lillard/Wes/(SF?)/LMA/(defensive C) with Claver, 2014 MLE, #10 and whoever the All-Star is. Hopefully he's a SF or SG or defensive big.

You seem to want specifics of who we can fill in for LMA, give specifics of which contender LMA is going to sign with, and what free aents we're going to put around our core of
Lillard/Wes/Batum/Thompson/Len to make us a legit title contender.

Personally, with what I'd get out of an LMA trade (ending up with #1, #10, #19 and Thompson) I can think of a few scenarios that have at least as good a chance of being a contender in the next 4 years than your "disgruntled all-star lineup" above.
Lillard/Oladipo/Batum/Thompson/Bynum@15M (with a bench of Wes, Claver, Leonard, #10--maybe Zeller?)
Lillard/McCollum/Batum/Thompson/Noel (with a bench of Wes, Claver, Leonard and 15M in cap space for, say, Tyreke or Redick or a lopsided trade for a disgruntled all-star )--and potentially a lotto pick next year
Lillard/Wes/Batum/Thomson/Len (with a bench of Shabazz, Claver, Leonard and 15M in cap space for, say, Millsap or Jefferson or a lopsided trade for a disgruntled all-star )

For me, it's about assets and strategy and trying to win championships. Can't even allow the possibility of talent walking out the door for nothing.

 

[blue9]

The way I see it, Lillard and LA are basically the Blazers only unique players. Everyone else is essentially replaceable pretty easily.

I completely disagree. The league is stacked with PFs and so LMA is the easiest player to replace. There is nearly zero SG talent in the league, so replacing Wes would be very tough - especially with someone who is better. Same goes for Nic, to a lesser degree. There's not a ton of SF talent - certainly more than SG - and Nic is already ~Top 5 at the position.
Package both of them for the fabled "disgruntled star" and you might upgrade one position while downgrading at the other. Never mind the fact that typically disgruntled stars tend to force their way to teams they WANT to play for.

I mean how do the Spurs keep on adding these great players?

The big secret is...they're NOT great players. They're average players playing within a great system. It's why I'd be very leery of ever trading with the Spurs - the player you get from them won't be 80% of whatever they showed while playing for the Spurs.

 

[RR7]

That's not my case for the best strategy going forward, as I already stated. I wa giving you an example that you asked for from Mags. You can feel free to attribute that strategy to me if you want, though, if it works better for you as an example to throw into your get rid of LMA posts.
And no, it doesn't "sound familiar" except to you. He's apparently 3/4ths of the way out the door. When you include that in every scenario, then it sure makes it easier to see. For you. Where's he going to walk to?

 

[BrianFromWA]

as for your question about "contender LMA will sign with"...it doesn't necessarily need to be a contender. DAL has 0 dollars committed to July 2015. SAS? 0 dollars committed. HOU has Harden's 15M, and that's it. OKC has 54M committed with Durant, RW and Ibaka, and that's it.

That's just the 3 teams closest to home.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

I completely disagree. The league is stacked with PFs and so LMA is the easiest player to replace. There is nearly zero SG talent in the league, so replacing Wes would be very tough - especially with someone who is better. Same goes for Nic, to a lesser degree. There's not a ton of SF talent - certainly more than SG - and Nic is already ~Top 5 at the position.
Package both of them for the fabled "disgruntled star" and you might upgrade one position while downgrading at the other. Never mind the fact that typically disgruntled stars tend to force their way to teams they WANT to play for.

The big secret is...they're NOT great players. They're average players playing within a great system. It's why I'd be very leery of ever trading with the Spurs - the player you get from them won't be 80% of whatever they showed while playing for the Spurs.

Not with LA's skillset. He's the highest scoring PF in the league. IMO, wing players are easier to get...there are a shortage of good big men in the league. And when you look at it, LA is an elite PF while Wes and Nic are average wing players.

 

[BrianFromWA]

That's not my case for the best strategy going forward, as I already stated. I wa giving you an example that you asked for from Mags. You can feel free to attribute that strategy to me if you want, though, if it works better for you as an example to throw into your get rid of LMA posts.
And no, it doesn't "sound familiar" except to you. He's apparently 3/4ths of the way out the door. When you include that in every scenario, then it sure makes it easier to see. For you. Where's he going to walk to?

I think he's 100% out the door, not 3/4. I get that you don't, and that's fine. If I'm wrong, we have a bunch of assets instead of a UFA All-Star. If you're wrong, we are 100% screwed.

 

[RR7]

So he's absolutely certain to leave here, because he wants to play for a contender, BUT.....he'll leave here to take less money for a team not a contender. Makes absolute perfect sense. Guess he is gone. Trade him.

 

[BrianFromWA]

See? My work here is done. Knew it would just take being patient and logical.

EDIT: I didn't say he wanted to leave to "play for a contender". The strawman that people seem to be bringing up for his reason for staying is "IF WE BUILD A CONTENDER HE'LL STAY!" Personally, I don't think that's true, but it's closer than if we didn't. And I don't think we can, and no one yet has shown me how it could IF it could.

 

[RR7]

I think he's 100% out the door, not 3/4. I get that you don't, and that's fine. If I'm wrong, we have a bunch of assets instead of a UFA All-Star. If you're wrong, we are 100% screwed.

Asked in a different thread, if we had to swap rosters with one of them, which team would you swap with right now, Cleveland, Utah, or Denver?

 

[e_blazer]

The thing about conversations like this is that we're all on the outside guessing about what people's thinking about the future may be. Do you really think that LMA and NO haven't had some pretty extensive conversations about this and that is factored in when making decisions about the draft and prospective trades? It sounded pretty clear to me in an interview that LMA gave during this season that he had been told that the Blazers weren't going to trade him, that the plan was to make moves this summer to be decent and to finish up next summer, after which the Blazers plan on being "good" going forward. I don't have a link to the interview, but it sure sounded to me like LMA was on board with the program. Obviously, things can change quickly in the NBA, but I don't think that the "trade LMA" discussions are much more than messageboard fodder at this point.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Remember that there was an Exit Interview. And I highly doubt that Olshey hasn't done at least the level of analysis of assets going forward that we have. He just doesn't have the baggage of LMA being his favorite player.

 

[blue9]

Not with LA's skillset. He's the highest scoring PF in the league. IMO, wing players are easier to get...there are a shortage of good big men in the league. And when you look at it, LA is an elite PF while Wes and Nic are average wing players.

I disagree with this so strongly I couldn't overstate it - especially the bolded section. The PF position is probably the deepest position in the league, and is absolutely the worst position to build around.
Name 14 better SGs than Wes.
Name 14 better SFs than Nic.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Asked in a different thread, if we had to swap rosters with one of them, which team would you swap with right now, Cleveland, Utah, or Denver?

This is an easy one for me. I'd pick Utah EASILY

 

[RR7]

Remember that there was an Exit Interview. And I highly doubt that Olshey hasn't done at least the level of analysis of assets going forward that we have. He just doesn't have the baggage of LMA being his favorite player.

Nowhere near my favorite player.

I just don't see a "collection of assets" putting us over the top unless you want to atttribute their absolute best case scenarios for them, and worst case for everything else, which is what you do. It seems, especially getting half those assets from this draft, that you're landing 3-4 players that seems AT BEST a 2nd or 3rd banana on a contender. All the while hoping for that true stud next year.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I disagree with this so strongly I couldn't overstate it - especially the bolded section. The PF position is probably the deepest position in the league, and is absolutely the worst position to build around.
Name 14 better SGs than Wes.
Name 14 better SFs than Nic.

define "better"

 

[RR7]

See? My work here is done. Knew it would just take being patient and logical.

EDIT: I didn't say he wanted to leave to "play for a contender". The strawman that people seem to be bringing up for his reason for staying is "IF WE BUILD A CONTENDER HE'LL STAY!" Personally, I don't think that's true, but it's closer than if we didn't. And I don't think we can, and no one yet has shown me how it could IF it could.

So...he just wants to play for a team close to where he grew up?

 

[illmatic99]

We focus way too much on positional depth in the whole NBA. It's more of a question of where the players rank overall regardless of position. We're looking for stars here. Who cares if PF is really deep? LA still is top 20 player in the league overall.

I'd rather have the 20th and 70th best players rather than the 40th and 50th.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Nowhere near my favorite player.

Didn't say yours.

I just don't see a "collection of assets" putting us over the top unless you want to atttribute their absolute best case scenarios for them, and worst case for everything else, which is what you do.

LOL. OK. You are basing POR being a title contender on our current Core 4 plus the #10, an MLE and 11M in cap space for a defensive big. And that it's going to happen in the next two years. With the possibility that there may be a trade of "2 starters and 2 scrubs and a 2018 first for a disgruntled all-star". And I'm the one who attributes "absolute best case"? How many top 10 picks flame out completely? You think that whoever we pick #1, Thompson, whoever we pick number 10--added to Lillard, Wes and Batum and 15M in cap space, with maybe a lotto pick next year--is only a contender in the next 7 years in the "absolute best case"?

It seems, especially getting half those assets from this draft, that you're landing 3-4 players that seems AT BEST a 2nd or 3rd banana on a contender. All the while hoping for that true stud next year.

Yet LMA, #10, the MLE and 11M on a defensive big is more than 3 or 4 2nd bananas?

 

[blue9]

define "better"

Ha! Um, better at playing team-oriented basketball. My own preferences have fundamentals and intelligence trumping athleticism, but feel free to put athletic ability over skills and intelligence.
Personally, I'd also leave off players like Paul Pierce and Ray Allen who are on their way out the door. The idea is to have players who'll play at a high level for several years.

 

[BrianFromWA]

So...he just wants to play for a team close to where he grew up?

Alright, you got me. He's staying in Portland forever in your mind. There's absolutely no chance that he'll buck the trend of almost every UFA all-star in the last 10 years and go somewhere other than where he was drafted. His Portland roots run deep.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Asked in a different thread, if we had to swap rosters with one of them, which team would you swap with right now, Cleveland, Utah, or Denver?

Of those three? Not Denver. The other two are toss-ups. I don't know as much about Millsap/Jefferson/Kanter/Favors attitudes towards each other and how they play together, but I'd probably lean towards CLE because they have a bunch of cap room, tradable assets, good-to-great players on rookie contracts and multiple future firsts from other teams.

If I was UTH's GM, I'd be losing at least one, and probably two starters for almost nothing. Hard to start with that. With CLE, I could find a taker for Varejao, put in bids for RFAs/UFAs this year, evaluate Waiters and Thompson for cheap, get multiple picks this draft and go into the future with something like:

Irving/Waiters/Shabazz (trade with DAL for 13)/Thompson/Noel with (whoever I could get for Varejao), Gee, a re-signed Speights, Zeller and 20M+ in cap space and future firsts from SAC (top 10 protected), MEM and MIA.

 

[RR7]

Alright, you got me. He's staying in Portland forever in your mind. There's absolutely no chance that he'll buck the trend of almost every UFA all-star in the last 10 years and go somewhere other than where he was drafted. His Portland roots run deep.

I love your ability to have a discussion. Did I say he's 100% staying, like you insist he is 100% going? No. Again, you're free to present things however you like if you feel it somehow makes your presentation here better.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I'm sorry that I misrepresented you. But you can stop with the ad hominem attacks. If there is even the slightest chance that he leaves for absolutely nothing, how do you mitigate that?

 

[RR7]

I'm sorry that I misrepresented you. But you can stop with the ad hominem attacks. If there is even the slightest chance that he leaves for absolutely nothing, how do you mitigate that?

Like was mentioned above, Neil knows LA's feelings on this much better than we do. Aldridge has no reason to lie to Neil just to be able to leave on his own, when that option is still there.
I think what happened with Utah, where they held onto Deron until the deadline, and moved him for what was by then certain to be a good pick would be better than using him for picks in a crappy draft. I'd like my odds better at getting to the deadline and hoping that a struggling team would want to add him for their pick(ala Brooklyn for Deron) to increase the odds of it being a decent pick in a draft where there might actually be a superstar, over getting a pick where a guy would have to exceed all reasonable expectations to be that true superstar to get us to a title.

 

[blazerboy30]

Just to be clear, Brian and I are coming from two very different places with regards to trading LMA. That's not to say I disagree with his theory of LMA leaving. I simply don't see LMA being a player who is going to matter in a Playoff/Championship push, while I DO see him as being the best vehicle for asset acquisition.

With that said, I DO think that we could keep LMA and make a few moves to put us into the Playoffs next season. But it's a team that won't get out of the first round. And then, as Brian points out, we're extremely limited in our ability to make additional improvements.

And to be clear, I'm not against or for trading LMA. It would depend on the proposed trade. But using the assumption that he's leaving in 2 years pushes in the direction of making an unfavorably lopsided trade out of fear.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Ha! Um, better at playing team-oriented basketball. My own preferences have fundamentals and intelligence trumping athleticism, but feel free to put athletic ability over skills and intelligence.
Personally, I'd also leave off players like Paul Pierce and Ray Allen who are on their way out the door. The idea is to have players who'll play at a high level for several years.

15 guys not too old I'd take over Wes

Harden
Hayward
Chandler
Henderson
Thornton
L Williams
Mayo
Iggy
DeRozen
Redick
Beal
Brooks
Thompson
Ross
Lamb


and Nic
James
Durant
Anthony
Gay
Smith
George
Gallinari
Parsons
Young
Faried
Kidd-Gilchrist
Copeland
K Leonard
Ilyasova
Harris

Not all for the same reason, some are better, some are better defenders, some just have a far better contract for what they produce.

 

[magnifier661]

And to be clear, I'm not against or for trading LMA. It would depend on the proposed trade. But using the assumption that he's leaving in 2 years pushes in the direction of making an unfavorably lopsided trade out of fear.

I'm in the same boat. Aldridge is obviously one of my favorite players, but if the deal is good, then I'm fine with the deal.

 

[RoyToy]

The Jazz have been an irrelevant franchise since trading Deron Williams. Their roster couldn't excite my any less.

You never win when trading a star player. Trading Aldridge, a guy who has 5-6 more great years in him, is a terrible idea.

 

[blazerboy30]

See Post #63, and couple that with LMA's comments. Tell me what your foundation is that he's 100% staying here.

This is where your argument is flawed. Nobody else is making an assumption either way with regard to knowing he's leaving or staying. You're the one making an assumption and it would lead to making a bad trade out of fear of a faulty assumption.

Unless, of course, you have insider knowledge, which hopefully our GM does.

What has your analysis of UFA All-Stars in the last half-decade led you to conclude about the chances of keeping LMA here?

How many UFA All-stars have left Portland in the last half-decade?