Merged: The Draft Thread For Stuff About The Draft Including Thoughts About The Draft

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BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94 said:
It's cliché but... in all honesty our draft board should look like this (if we decide to draft and not trade):

15: BPA

20: BPA

26: BPA

We need talent
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But here's the thing: there is no such thing as "best player" in the abstract. Certain players who thrive with one team would just wither with another. Jermaine O'Neal is a classic example, but I suspect there are plenty of others. People like to say it's "BPA vs. need" but if you need a player he's going to develop and be better than another player who just sits. And a player who gets to play will be a more valuable trade chip than one on the bench.

(Obviously the example everyone brings up is Bowie over Jordan. But Bowie didn't even fill a need that well because he was always injured. And you could easily have played Jordan and Drexler together.)
 
3RA1N1AC said:
Those created draft classes are crazy unrealistic though, the top 20 picks all come in rated 80+.

I did a similar thing with like 8 draft picks in this draft, team went like 76-6 the next year.
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I am using EmbraceThePace's draft class and there are about 5 players in the draft class of 2017 who are over 75 at the beginning so it's fair. Fultz, Ball, Jackson and Tatum from what I recall. When you consider that some of the rookies from 2016 class are that or higher (Simmons 79, Brogdon 78) and in class of 2015 you have Towns already at 89, Turner 82, Booker 81 etc., it's not wrong that Fultz would be a 77.

There are a lot of players with potential around 80-85 in that class but that is also fine as it's supposed to be a stacked class, and it's not straightforward that they will all fully realize it. Anonuby, Giles and Adebayo for instance are all 79-82 once they have reached their peak and it's realistic, this is level of Jae Crowder/Gortat.

What is crazy though is the offers you get during draft day. Kemba Walker for no. 8, DeAndre Jordan for no. 16 etc.
 
Sarni said:
I am using EmbraceThePace's draft class and there are about 5 players in the draft class of 2017 who are over 75 at the beginning so it's fair. Fultz, Ball, Jackson and Tatum from what I recall. When you consider that some of the rookies from 2016 class are that or higher (Simmons 79, Brogdon 78) and in class of 2015 you have Towns already at 89, Turner 82, Booker 81 etc., it's not wrong that Fultz would be a 77.

There are a lot of players with potential around 80-85 in that class but that is also fine as it's supposed to be a stacked class, and it's not straightforward that they will all fully realize it. Anonuby, Giles and Adebayo for instance are all 79-82 once they have reached their peak and it's realistic, this is level of Jae Crowder/Gortat.

What is crazy though is the offers you get during draft day. Kemba Walker for no. 8, DeAndre Jordan for no. 16 etc.
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Ill have to try his classes, sounds legit. The trades are hilarious though, dirk got traded to Sacramento in my last sim.
 
3RA1N1AC said:
Ill have to try his classes, sounds legit. The trades are hilarious though, dirk got traded to Sacramento in my last sim.
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He will be top of the list in downloads. SkillazTheKill makes nice draft classes but as you said, basically all of top 20 are above 77 and pretty much all 60 players are rated 72 or higher which means they should immediately be able to play minutes in the league, even the second rounders.

Won my first game against Celtics, 106-101 in their arena. Markkanen went 2-16 from the field despite A+ rating in 3-point shooting. Anunoby was a monster on defence, got 11 points and 8 rebounds. Terrance Ferguson was probably the best of all draftees, despite limited minutes, with great shooting. Giles and Adebayo were fine, neither went over 10 points but both got 8 rebounds each. This team is a rebounding machine.
 
BonesJones said:
Why can't you see that?

PHI needs Guards, the Lakers and Celtics would be picking to high to not take a guard.

ORL could use a guard/wing, SAC needs a PG and SF, NYK need a PG, SG, and SF. DAL needs a PG too.

MIN is the only team that needs a PF first and foremost.
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Let me see if I can clarify my point, because I don't necessarily disagree with you... I just don't think yours and mine are as diametrically opposed as you're suggesting...

We, message board fans inherently view the draft, essentially in a vacuum. We each use use just a just a couple of inputs (our own eyes, others' opinions, various mock drafts) to form our opinions on these draft prospects. For better or worse, that picture is a lot clearer -- its easier to *logic* your way into thoughts like yours above (which I, again, don't necessarily disagree with). The problem there, is that those don't always take into account of how the draft shakes out in real life, where GMs are wading through a TON more inputs than we are.

In the real-life draft, GMs' decisions are affected by countless pressures and conscious and unconscious biases... To name a few: a ticking clock, trade offers on the table and their perspectives on what "value" means in that given moment, what the media will say, what their owner wants, what their scouts and coaches and star players want, fear of losing their job (and how that affects their real-life family) and personal feelings on risk vs. reward, how interviews went with draftees, additional info (like health check ups/background info/intelligence testing) that we're not always privy to -- teams spend hundreds of thousands of dollars every year trying to uncover ANYTHING that might be a reason to not pick a kid, how their pick may affect team sponsors (see: Telfair, Sebastian), what they think other teams are going to do, previous successes/failures, inherent biases on things like body type/race (it happens), etc., what the analytics say, how they think free agency will play out, what the short and long-term plans are for the team and their perspectives on needs, fit, etc. (which may differ from our visions), inside info on guys already on the roster (ie. how they may be recovering from injury, if they're unhappy and requesting a trade, etc.), how the draft has shaken out above them, position scarcity in the draft and free agency (again, the world only produces so many 7-footers), how city culture might affect a kid and vice versa, etc....

At the end of the day, each draft selection is a combination of all of these factors, plus good-old-fashioned gut, and historically, the prevailing wisdom in the NBA has been, when in doubt, draft big.

In the last 25 drafts, a minimum of 3 big men (PFs and Cs) have been drafted in the lottery, and that happened once. In 80% of the drafts over that time period, at least 6 bigs have been taken in the lottery. My point was more that it doesn't feel like mock drafts are taking that into account yet. Every year there are kids who test off the charts who fly up draft boards because teams can't resist drafting potential over substance. The era of advanced stats also produces thoughts like this one (really interesting read) that might not affect ALL GMs, but might affect some.

My eyes tell me that the most talented players in the draft are (in approximate order):
Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum, Dennis Smith, Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz, DeAaron Fox, Malik Monk, Zach Collins, Jon Isaac and Markkanen. But I'd be willing to wager that a few random names sneak into the lottery that are unexpected based on all the factors above. Doesn't mean they're good, smart, or logical picks, but like every other year, I think it'll happen at least a couple times...
 
We just need one of these to hit. Someone like Taurean Prince would be ideal(drafted by AT #12 last season, via UTA for George Hill/Teague). Not as high a ceiling, but his floor is that of a starter. Norm Powell for TOR (late first round two years ago) is similar.
 
Ezeli's contract:

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q101

101. I keep hearing about teams wanting to acquire "ending contracts" in trades. What are they, and why are they so valuable?

Sometimes teams get locked into long-term financial commitments from which they later want to extricate themselves. Typically this is when they have players with expensive, long-term contracts, but have no real hope of competing for a title before those contracts run out. These teams usually have little hope of having cap room to sign free agents, and may be facing large luxury tax payments as well (see question number 21). But if such a team were to trade a high-salaried player for a player with a similar (or even higher) salary who is in the last year of his contract, then they would be able to rid themselves of that financial obligation the following summer. This could get the team below the tax level, or possibly create enough cap room with which to sign a productive free agent.

This means that some players who aren't necessarily trade-worthy from a basketball standpoint become valuable trade commodities from a financial standpoint. A competing team might be able to parlay mediocre players with ending contracts into a much better basketball player, as long as they are willing to assume a long-term financial obligation. One such trade occurred in 2004-05 when Golden State traded Speedy Claxton, Dale Davis and cash to New Orleans for Baron Davis. With this trade Golden State was able to upgrade its roster, while New Orleans was able to unload Davis' contract, which had four years and $63 million remaining.

Note that players with ending contracts (including players whose contracts might end due to an option or ETO) cannot be traded after the trade deadline (players whose contracts are not ending can be traded after the last day of the team's season and before July 1 -- see question numbers 100 and 103).
 
Fez Von Savage said:


He's a project but he can be every bit as good as a healthy Ezeli.

With his size (6'10" 255 lbs) at only 18 years old combined with his athleticism he may not be there with the Memphis pick.

Pick Mushidi at #26.
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You might look at 15 due to we also pick at 20 so talent level between picks is about the same. The only difference is how much they make. The reason I say 15 how many elite shot blockers come out of the draft and be solid backup behind Nurk when he is ready.
 
Denny Crane said:
Ezeli's contract:

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q101

101. I keep hearing about teams wanting to acquire "ending contracts" in trades. What are they, and why are they so valuable?

Sometimes teams get locked into long-term financial commitments from which they later want to extricate themselves. Typically this is when they have players with expensive, long-term contracts, but have no real hope of competing for a title before those contracts run out. These teams usually have little hope of having cap room to sign free agents, and may be facing large luxury tax payments as well (see question number 21). But if such a team were to trade a high-salaried player for a player with a similar (or even higher) salary who is in the last year of his contract, then they would be able to rid themselves of that financial obligation the following summer. This could get the team below the tax level, or possibly create enough cap room with which to sign a productive free agent.

This means that some players who aren't necessarily trade-worthy from a basketball standpoint become valuable trade commodities from a financial standpoint. A competing team might be able to parlay mediocre players with ending contracts into a much better basketball player, as long as they are willing to assume a long-term financial obligation. One such trade occurred in 2004-05 when Golden State traded Speedy Claxton, Dale Davis and cash to New Orleans for Baron Davis. With this trade Golden State was able to upgrade its roster, while New Orleans was able to unload Davis' contract, which had four years and $63 million remaining.

Note that players with ending contracts (including players whose contracts might end due to an option or ETO) cannot be traded after the trade deadline (players whose contracts are not ending can be traded after the last day of the team's season and before July 1 -- see question numbers 100 and 103).
Click to expand...
You know that section doesn't actually apply to Ezeli, right?
 
Seems like on draft day, GMs drink the kool aid and are willing to favorably deal for picks.

I wouldn't be surprised if we traded them all: 1) in deals for veteran players, 2) for better draft picks, 3) for multiple 2nd round picks

Unless NO thinks there's a player we can get that is a must pick.
 
See question 100, player cannot be traded:

upload_2017-4-27_10-39-2.png
 
Denny Crane said:
His contract might end due to the Blazers exercising their team option.
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They don't have a team option. There's a partial guarantee, with a full guarantee exercise date. That's completely different.
 
Question 64:

upload_2017-4-27_10-42-35.png

Doesn't mention trade flexibility in last year of contract.
 
http://nba.nbcsports.com/2017/04/25...ezeli-will-not-be-back-with-team-next-season/

Portland GM makes it official, Festus Ezeli will not be back with team next season

This season the Portland Trail Blazers found their center of the future (and the present) in Jusuf Nurkic.

Which makes the next step fairly obvious: Portland will not pick up the option on Festus Ezeli for next season, GM Neil Olshay confirmed at the team exit meetings Tuesday.

Portland signed Ezeli on what they thought was a great contract (one-year, $7.4 million, with a team option for the second year) because he was coming off knee surgery last summer. However, Ezeli was never healthy, needed a second surgery, and never got on the court. After taking it slow over last summer he practiced with the team twice in mid-October, there was more swelling, so he pulled back.
 
Denny Crane said:
Question 64:

View attachment 14029

Doesn't mention trade flexibility in last year of contract.
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The reports you quoted above are incorrect. It can't be a team option if there's a partial guarantee. Feel free to assume that they're the same, but they're materially different. I'm not interested in attempting to browbeat you into accepting facts.
 
The news reports say it was a team option, including the latest one saying Olshey won't pick up Ezeli's option.
 
Denny Crane said:
The news reports say it was a team option, including the latest one saying Olshey won't pick up Ezeli's option.
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Team options don't include partial guarantees, as we all know exist on Ezeli's contract. Therefore, the news reports have the information factually incorrect, as we know does happen upon occasion. Often these reports are written by people with insufficient knowledge of underlying details (like the CBA), or written for the same (such as the majority of the basketball-watching populace who don't understand or care about the difference between a team option and a partial guarantee).

Regarding the tradeability of partially-guaranteed deals with a June 30th exercise date, go back and look at Ryan Gomes' contract when the Blazers traded Martell Webster for him.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Team options don't include partial guarantees, as we all know exist on Ezeli's contract. Therefore, the news reports have the information factually incorrect, as we know does happen upon occasion. Often these reports are written by people with insufficient knowledge of underlying details (like the CBA), or written for the same (such as the majority of the basketball-watching populace who don't understand or care about the difference between a team option and a partial guarantee).

Regarding the tradeability of partially-guaranteed deals with a June 30th exercise date, go back and look at Ryan Gomes' contract when the Blazers traded Martell Webster for him.
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Gomes not an ending contract or was waived.

http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2010/06/blazers_plan_to_release_ryan_g.html

Team president Larry Miller said the Blazers will probably release newly acquired forward Ryan Gomes in order to avoid taking on the remaining three seasons of his contract.
 
It all depends on if Ezeli had an Option, or if he was on a 2 year deal with a partial Guarantee. I remember over the summer it was announced as a Team option for the 2nd season, in which case he can not be traded.
 
Schilly said:
It all depends on if Ezeli had an Option, or if he was on a 2 year deal with a partial Guarantee. I remember over the summer it was announced as a Team option for the 2nd season, in which case he can not be traded.
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It seems like if he was tradable, NO wouldn't be declining the option, or at least would wait until the last minute. It seems foolish to announce he's going to decline the option when he's tradeable (keep the powder dry!). He's be great ballast in any deal, especially to the receiving team that gets to refuse the option and save $6.7M in cap space after.
 
Fez Von Savage said:
All defensive oriented picks:

OG Anunoby
Ike Anigbogu
Kostja Mushidi
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I think Og is moving out of range (upward)

picks for today (subject to my whims):

Anigbogu
Patton
Pasecniks
[Swanigan on deck]

I don't see any wings I like better than what we have. They just seem like cheaper/younger versions of the same thing.
 
Schilly said:
Ferguson is intriguing.
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I don't see the appeal. Averages 4.6 pts, 1 reb, < 1 ast per game in 15 mpg through 30 games. Yes, he's 18 playing in a foreign country, but he is horribly inefficient and extremely turnover prone. His PER was 5.4. His net rating is -13. His high school stats aren't all that appealing either. I don't get why he's rated so high.

Going by stats and what I've read of him, but regardless of what his ceiling is in the NBA, he's years away from even producing in Australia.
 
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