Merged: The Draft Thread For Stuff About The Draft Including Thoughts About The Draft

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Reep said:
I think Og is moving out of range (upward)

picks for today (subject to my whims):

Anigbogu
Patton
Pasecniks
[Swanigan on deck]

I don't see any wings I like better than what we have. They just seem like cheaper/younger versions of the same thing.
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But that's three centers and we still have Nurkic.
 
yuyuza1 said:
I don't see the appeal. Averages 4.6 pts, 1 reb, < 1 ast per game in 15 mpg through 30 games. Yes, he's 18 playing in a foreign country, but he is horribly inefficient and extremely turnover prone. His PER was 5.4. His net rating is -13. His high school stats aren't all that appealing either. I don't get why he's rated so high.

Going by stats and what I've read of him, but regardless of what his ceiling is in the NBA, he's years away from even producing in Australia.
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Yep those are definitely the red flags for sure. I think he's an "Intangibles" kind of prospect in my eyes. Long quick, defensive skills decent shooter based on stats. IIRC one article suggested the team didn't put a lot of effort into him knowing he was spending a year there then coming back to the states for the NBA.
 
Denny Crane said:
It seems like if he was tradable, NO wouldn't be declining the option, or at least would wait until the last minute. It seems foolish to announce he's going to decline the option when he's tradeable (keep the powder dry!). He's be great ballast in any deal, especially to the receiving team that gets to refuse the option and save $6.7M in cap space after.
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Why would the Blazers want to take back even more salary? They're ridiculously far into the luxury tax as it is. Can you conceive of a trade the Blazers would actually want to make in which Ezeli's contract-as-ballast would actually be necessary? Crabbe for Carmelo, maybe?
 
yuyuza1 said:
I don't see the appeal. Averages 4.6 pts, 1 reb, < 1 ast per game in 15 mpg through 30 games. Yes, he's 18 playing in a foreign country, but he is horribly inefficient and extremely turnover prone. His PER was 5.4. His net rating is -13. His high school stats aren't all that appealing either. I don't get why he's rated so high.

Going by stats and what I've read of him, but regardless of what his ceiling is in the NBA, he's years away from even producing in Australia.
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He must have done something right somewhere to be mentioned as a potential lottery pick? There must be dozens of players with stats better than him yet he is supposed to be a lock for a top 20 pick while volume scorers can go undrafted. Marcus Keene will probably get ignored at 30 PPG.
 
Sarni said:
He must have done something right somewhere to be mentioned as a potential lottery pick? There must be dozens of players with stats better than him yet he is supposed to be a lock for a top 20 pick while volume scorers can go undrafted. Marcus Keene will probably get ignored.
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Which is why it's worrisome. DX's writeup on him halfway through this past season makes him seem like a longshot (very weak numbers but has skills to contribute) but they have him at 15. They say that there is hope for him to finish his season strong, but he clearly didn't by looking at his game log. Weak FT% and weak rebounding are the biggest concerns. Those are usually indicative of a good prospect, and will translate to any level. For a guy who apparently struggles to create looks for himself, his 31% 3pt shooting, and lack of really anything of value make it really hard for me to get excited about his potential. Even his highlight videos on youtube are blah.

 
glazeduck said:
Let me see if I can clarify my point, because I don't necessarily disagree with you... I just don't think yours and mine are as diametrically opposed as you're suggesting...

We, message board fans inherently view the draft, essentially in a vacuum. We each use use just a just a couple of inputs (our own eyes, others' opinions, various mock drafts) to form our opinions on these draft prospects. For better or worse, that picture is a lot clearer -- its easier to *logic* your way into thoughts like yours above (which I, again, don't necessarily disagree with). The problem there, is that those don't always take into account of how the draft shakes out in real life, where GMs are wading through a TON more inputs than we are.

In the real-life draft, GMs' decisions are affected by countless pressures and conscious and unconscious biases... To name a few: a ticking clock, trade offers on the table and their perspectives on what "value" means in that given moment, what the media will say, what their owner wants, what their scouts and coaches and star players want, fear of losing their job (and how that affects their real-life family) and personal feelings on risk vs. reward, how interviews went with draftees, additional info (like health check ups/background info/intelligence testing) that we're not always privy to -- teams spend hundreds of thousands of dollars every year trying to uncover ANYTHING that might be a reason to not pick a kid, how their pick may affect team sponsors (see: Telfair, Sebastian), what they think other teams are going to do, previous successes/failures, inherent biases on things like body type/race (it happens), etc., what the analytics say, how they think free agency will play out, what the short and long-term plans are for the team and their perspectives on needs, fit, etc. (which may differ from our visions), inside info on guys already on the roster (ie. how they may be recovering from injury, if they're unhappy and requesting a trade, etc.), how the draft has shaken out above them, position scarcity in the draft and free agency (again, the world only produces so many 7-footers), how city culture might affect a kid and vice versa, etc....

At the end of the day, each draft selection is a combination of all of these factors, plus good-old-fashioned gut, and historically, the prevailing wisdom in the NBA has been, when in doubt, draft big.

In the last 25 drafts, a minimum of 3 big men (PFs and Cs) have been drafted in the lottery, and that happened once. In 80% of the drafts over that time period, at least 6 bigs have been taken in the lottery. My point was more that it doesn't feel like mock drafts are taking that into account yet. Every year there are kids who test off the charts who fly up draft boards because teams can't resist drafting potential over substance. The era of advanced stats also produces thoughts like this one (really interesting read) that might not affect ALL GMs, but might affect some.

My eyes tell me that the most talented players in the draft are (in approximate order):
Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum, Dennis Smith, Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz, DeAaron Fox, Malik Monk, Zach Collins, Jon Isaac and Markkanen. But I'd be willing to wager that a few random names sneak into the lottery that are unexpected based on all the factors above. Doesn't mean they're good, smart, or logical picks, but like every other year, I think it'll happen at least a couple times...
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I just don't see an intriguing big man that will rise like Maker did. There's no way that J.Collins, Anigbogu, Patton, Leaf or Lydon get picked over Ntilikina, Isaac, or Markkanen.

This is an unusual draft in the fact that you have a lot if certainty in the top 10 and most of them are guards. Even if there were a lot of guards projected to go top 10, uncertainty would shake things up. There's no uncertainty this year. Ntilikina and Isaac have noticeable talent and measure well. Markkanen is one of the best shooting PFs in NBA history, and a perfect pick for MIN. Monk, Fox, Tatum, nor Smith will fall past 10.

The only big I can see jumping into the top 10 is Z.Collins, but that's it. There will only be 1 or 2 bigs drafted in the top 10.
 
The same things said about Ferguson could be said about Hartenstein imo.

I going to put my trust in our draft evaluators but I personally like either of the Collins' (one not happening), Jackson, Swanigan, OG and Lessort.

I like the last two the most (besides the one that isn't happening at the beginning).
 
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yuyuza1 said:
I don't see the appeal. Averages 4.6 pts, 1 reb, < 1 ast per game in 15 mpg through 30 games. Yes, he's 18 playing in a foreign country, but he is horribly inefficient and extremely turnover prone. His PER was 5.4. His net rating is -13. His high school stats aren't all that appealing either. I don't get why he's rated so high.

Going by stats and what I've read of him, but regardless of what his ceiling is in the NBA, he's years away from even producing in Australia.
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Scouts are going off what they saw at Hoop summit (he hit like 7 threes in 20 mins) and another elite prospect game thing that Im too lazy to look up rn. He has impressed when in situations like hoop summit is what im getting at and what scouts are relying on. I think its like the mudiay situation a couple years back. Didnt go to college and played overseas instead and scouts are just ignoring statistics from the year spent abroad.
 
chzbrgr said:
Scouts are going off what they saw at Hoop summit (he hit like 7 threes in 20 mins) and another elite prospect game thing that Im too lazy to look up rn. He has impressed when in situations like hoop summit is what im getting at and what scouts are relying on. I think its like the mudiay situation a couple years back. Didnt go to college and played overseas instead and scouts are just ignoring statistics from the year spent abroad.
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I looked this up just to compare.

Mudiay averaged 18/6/6 on 48/34/57 splits in China.
Ferguson is at 4/1/1 on 38/31/60 splits.

Just not gonna buy the hype on this dude. Derrick Jones Jr last year seems like a better prospect, and that dude is trash. Hell, Patrick McCaw is better. No way I'm taking him #15.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Why would the Blazers want to take back even more salary? They're ridiculously far into the luxury tax as it is. Can you conceive of a trade the Blazers would actually want to make in which Ezeli's contract-as-ballast would actually be necessary? Crabbe for Carmelo, maybe?
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I didn't say they'd take back more salary.

Ezeli and whatever for a traded player exception would be nice, and certainly doable.

Any deal where $7.7M is needed and the recipient wants the cap space in the end.
 
Denny Crane said:
I didn't say they'd take back more salary.

Ezeli and whatever for a traded player exception would be nice, and certainly doable.

Any deal where $7.7M is needed and the recipient wants the cap space in the end.
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It's like you have no concept of how finances work.... can you even balance a checking account?

Elezili's contact has NO positive value. It is a $1M liability. The only benefit it has is to a team looking to reduce payroll. There are only 2 teams in that situation (Portland & Cleveland).

Portland could PAY a team to take on his $1M cap hit, bit that really isn't worth it
 
Regarding the trade for TPE. We did it for the Cavs when we took Varejao off their hands. We got their 1st round pick in the deal, they got a $9.6M TPE they got to use to go further/way over the LT to sign Kyle Korver.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2017/02/two-cavaliers-traded-player-exceptions-expire.html

We might not want to use a TPE at all, but we would be better off having the choice to use it rather than outright cap space. The TPE does count against the salary cap, so we'd want to do all the deals we can to get under/up to the LT before dealing for the TPE. The TPE doesn't count against the LT so we wouldn't be penalized for it.

In effect, the team giving us the TPE would be paying $1M (of cap space) for a 1st or 2nd pick, or whatever we add to sweeten the deal.

Suppose massive injuries hit the Cavs and Warriors and we look like we're the best team. At some point, we might want to go over the LT using the TPE to strengthen the team and our chances.

Otherwise, we just let it expire (in 365 days) and we gained $1M of cap space since we didn't have to pay him his guaranteed amount.

http://midlevelexceptional.com/2014/07/03/nba-salary-cap-trade-exception/

upload_2017-4-27_13-56-42.png
 
tester551 said:
It's like you have no concept of how finances work.... can you even balance a checking account?

Elezili's contact has NO positive value. It is a $1M liability. The only benefit it has is to a team looking to reduce payroll. There are only 2 teams in that situation (Portland & Cleveland).

Portland could PAY a team to take on his $1M cap hit, bit that really isn't worth it
Click to expand...

Dude,

The cavs gave us their 1st round pick to take Varejao off their hands, a $1.9M/year cap hit for us once we waived him and used the stretch provision.

Teams under the cap could get even further under by trading a $8M+ salary to us and then cut Ezeli. They'd use even more cap space to sign FAs.
 
Denny Crane said:
Regarding the trade for TPE. We did it for the Cavs when we took Varejao off their hands. We got their 1st round pick in the deal, they got a $9.6M TPE they got to use to go further/way over the LT to sign Kyle Korver.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2017/02/two-cavaliers-traded-player-exceptions-expire.html

We might not want to use a TPE at all, but we would be better off having the choice to use it rather than outright cap space. The TPE does count against the salary cap, so we'd want to do all the deals we can to get under/up to the LT before dealing for the TPE. The TPE doesn't count against the LT so we wouldn't be penalized for it.

In effect, the team giving us the TPE would be paying $1M (of cap space) for a 1st or 2nd pick, or whatever we add to sweeten the deal.

Suppose massive injuries hit the Cavs and Warriors and we look like we're the best team. At some point, we might want to go over the LT using the TPE to strengthen the team and our chances.

Otherwise, we just let it expire (in 365 days) and we gained $1M of cap space since we didn't have to pay him his guaranteed amount.
Click to expand...
This is probably about the only reasonable possibility. However, I can't imagine that we would part with a pick for the privilege of creating a trade exception we'd be incredibly unlikely to use.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
This is probably about the only reasonable possibility. However, I can't imagine that we would part with a pick for the privilege of creating a trade exception we'd be incredibly unlikely to use.
Click to expand...

I'd think it'd be a 2nd round pick we'd use.

It's irrelevant because I haven't seen any evidence he's actually tradeable.

Plus we simply do not know what our roster will look like by the time we'd have to refuse Ezeli's option. Maybe we'd want to pay the LT (say we traded for LeBron or something). Always best to have the options.
 
Denny Crane said:
It's irrelevant because I haven't seen any evidence he's actually tradeable.
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You've seen it; you've simply dismissed it because it doesn't fit your preconception.
 
Denny Crane said:
http://nba.nbcsports.com/2017/04/25...ezeli-will-not-be-back-with-team-next-season/

Portland GM makes it official, Festus Ezeli will not be back with team next season

This season the Portland Trail Blazers found their center of the future (and the present) in Jusuf Nurkic.

Which makes the next step fairly obvious: Portland will not pick up the option on Festus Ezeli for next season, GM Neil Olshay confirmed at the team exit meetings Tuesday.

Portland signed Ezeli on what they thought was a great contract (one-year, $7.4 million, with a team option for the second year) because he was coming off knee surgery last summer. However, Ezeli was never healthy, needed a second surgery, and never got on the court. After taking it slow over last summer he practiced with the team twice in mid-October, there was more swelling, so he pulled back.
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Is that headline "official"? Talk is cheap. I don't think it's official until it actually happens.
 
Sarni said:
But that's three centers and we still have Nurkic.
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With Portland's history with centers you think that will be a problem? I'm hoping we get two healthy ones out of those three and Nurk.
 
Given Portland's luck with big men, Festus may come back with miraculous results from his surgery and be dominant down the road.
 
Denny Crane said:
I'd think it'd be a 2nd round pick we'd use.

It's irrelevant because I haven't seen any evidence he's actually tradeable.

Plus we simply do not know what our roster will look like by the time we'd have to refuse Ezeli's option. Maybe we'd want to pay the LT (say we traded for LeBron or something). Always best to have the options.
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Don't know why, but I'm trying one more time.

It occurs to me that you're misinterpreting the definition of the term "team option." Per CBA FAQ 59, a team option or (player option) is a mechanism in a contract to add a year (or multiple years in certain circumstances, a la the afore-mentioned Ryan Gomes deal). Prior to the exercising of that option, that year isn't actually a part of the contract. The very fact that there is a partial guarantee for 2017-18 demonstrates that the second year is not a team option--there can be no guaranteed money in an option year until that option is exercised.

This will be my final post on this topic. The evidence is definitive. There is no team option; it is a partially-guaranteed second year, hence he could be traded (but he won't be, because there's not a reasonable scenario in which it would happen).
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Don't know why, but I'm trying one more time.

It occurs to me that you're misinterpreting the definition of the term "team option." Per CBA FAQ 59, a team option or (player option) is a mechanism in a contract to add a year (or multiple years in certain circumstances, a la the afore-mentioned Ryan Gomes deal). Prior to the exercising of that option, that year isn't actually a part of the contract. The very fact that there is a partial guarantee for 2017-18 demonstrates that the second year is not a team option--there can be no guaranteed money in an option year until that option is exercised.

This will be my final post on this topic. The evidence is definitive. There is no team option; it is a partially-guaranteed second year, hence he could be traded (but he won't be, because there's not a reasonable scenario in which it would happen).
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You're a brave man. God bless you!
 
PtldPlatypus said:
You've seen it; you've simply dismissed it because it doesn't fit your preconception.
Click to expand...

You've seen it, but deny the news reports are accurate (they specifically say it's a team option), and then they're NO's actions which indicate it's an option.



TEAM OPTION
 
It is essentially a team option, but it's not. The team has the option to waive him and save money, thus giving the team an option to decline the players 2nd year. However, it's not a true team option. It's easier to report "His 2nd year is a team option" than "He has a partially guaranteed contract worth $1M for his 2nd year". A lot of fans wouldn't understand what a partially guaranteed contract means.
 
yuyuza1 said:
I looked this up just to compare.

Mudiay averaged 18/6/6 on 48/34/57 splits in China.
Ferguson is at 4/1/1 on 38/31/60 splits.

Just not gonna buy the hype on this dude. Derrick Jones Jr last year seems like a better prospect, and that dude is trash. Hell, Patrick McCaw is better. No way I'm taking him #15.
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Im not saying it's an even comparison between the two players just that they had similar paths to the nba. I wouldnt either with the pick maybe cle pick tho although that would mean we didnt like any of the wings available at 15 and are looking for a high upside project. Which I hate the idea of.
 
Y'all are making me sour on Ferguson too.

Shit man, I'm starting to dislike all the top prospects at 15. We should trade it.
 
BonesJones said:
Y'all are making me sour on Ferguson too.

Shit man, I'm starting to dislike all the top prospects at 15. We should trade it.
Click to expand...
If Collins, Jarrett, Jackson, and Anunoby all go between 10-14 as DE projects, Anigbogu might be our best option at 15.
 
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