I get the feeling that Collins would be a lock for the top 10 if this draft were taking place in 1997 instead of 2017. Yet the NBA has collectively deemphasized throwback big men who can own the low block, making someone with a ton of post moves in his arsenal less valuable than he once may have been. Collins has limited range, isn’t a great defender, and fouls way too much. He’d ideally be an inch or two taller than his listed 6-foot-10, and he has a one-track mind (“get buckets”) on offense. Throw all of this into a pot, sprinkle in the fact he’s really been on the scouting radar for only one season (he wasn’t even a top-100 recruit in the 2015 class and his freshman year at Wake Forest was unspectacular) and that season consisted of his team finishing 19–14 and losing in the First Four, and it starts to make sense why Collins will be lucky to go in the lottery.
I still say he’s worth a roll of the dice. I mean, the dude averaged 19.2 points and 9.8 rebounds in the ACC while playing only 26.6 minutes per game. What else needs to be said? Collins is a great athlete, has a motor that doesn’t stop, and is on the right side of 20 years old. And even though the league has become perimeter- and 3-point-oriented in recent years, who’s to say that philosophy will stick around for the next decade or more? If every team goes small and begins chasing 3-point records like the Rockets and Warriors, won’t having a reliable and unguardable big man start becoming an advantage? I know Collins isn’t going to light the league on fire, so I’m not saying I’d build a team around him or anything. But if I’m picking in the no. 10 to no. 15 range and the top nine guys (Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Tatum, Fox, Monk, Jonathan Isaac, Dennis Smith Jr., and Lauri Markkanen) are already off the board, I’m probably grabbing Collins and calling it a day.