Who exactly are you talking about? That litany of past predictions certainly doesn't describe me. It's easy to play that game, of making up an imaginary profile of failure and associating it with the opposing viewpoint. Watch:
"The same people who think Conley Jr. will be a really good NBA player thought Christian Laettner was a future NBA star, Damon Stoudamire was going to be a Hall of Famer and that Adam Morrison was the best pick for Portland. These people have no skills in talent evaluation."
If you can't make an argument beyond "You don't know basketball, I'm clearly right," then you don't have much to contribute.
Proof has to do with science... Good basketball scouts and GM's realize that good scouting is not a science, but an "art". KP knows this and has said as much.
The John Nash and Bob Whitsett's of the world only look at what is in front of them... they're the guys that need proof .... They're scientists, not artists. They only see something (talent) after it's already happened.
KP the artist, uses everything he knows about the world, people and gathering every bit it information he can to project the skill set and how everything will develop.
How to explain the art of projecting a skill set and personality development is very difficult to explain. Actually, I don't think it can be explained. But I can assure you that if your looking for proof as it pertains to how a rookie will develop in the nba, you're barking up the wrong tree by saying "I need proof before I'll know".
I can however tell you that one of the best ways to develop that artistry is to pick a young player and project to yourself how he will develop based on everything you know. Then observe that player for years and see how your projection held up. You're going to be wrong a lot, but you'll get better with time... The worst thing you can do is not try the projections and just sit back and wait till they've done something and say, "ahaa, there's proof. I've got my proof now".
Try that approach and I guarantee you'll be a smarter GM in 45 years than someone who just sits back and waits for proof.
By the way, I've been an avid basketball fan for over 45 years. Not saying I'm smarter than anyone, but I think I have more experience than most of the youngsters here.
If I come across as a gruff cranky ol' bastard, it's because I am. You'll understand that much better when your life is behind you and every part of your body hurts when you get up in the morning... lol, have a nice day.
