how about 3-year/40M?
looking at the teams that might have at least 15M in space:
Oklahoma City Thunder $105,832,242
Memphis Grizzlies $101,300,599
Chicago Bulls $100,038,154
Indiana Pacers $94,357,840
Detroit Pistons $85,871,626
Orlando Magic $84,821,918
San Antonio Spurs $82,562,465
* I don't see
OKC as a threat here. I've seen a couple of rumors they are interested in Holmgren; and they have 3 first round picks
*
Memphis has Steven Adams under contract next season (does he have long Covid?). They also have the cap-holds on Kyle Anderson and Tyus Jones that wipe out their space
*
Chicago has fake space because it doesn't account for LaVine. They also Vucevic' and Tony Bradley at C
* Would
Indiana trade away Sabonis, seemingly go all in on Myles Turner, and then sign Nurkic 4 months later? Doesn't seem likely
*
Detroit is a little unpredictable. They have Stewart, Olynyk, and Garza at C. They also have the 28M cap-hold on Bagley to deal with. Re-signing Bagley and adding their 1st round pick would probably leave them with 10-15M in space
*
Orlando sure appears to have committed to Wendall Carter as their C, and he's just as good as Nurkic in most ways, better in some. They also have Issac who plays both big positions. And, they could re-sign Bamba
* I suppose it's possible that
San Antonio might have an interest in Nurkic. But Poeltl has become about as good as Nurkic; and Zach plays a lot of C for them
Now, I only used BBREF for the numbers. Maybe they are missing something. But honestly, when you look at the team that could pay Nurkic 15M or more, and add that to his injury history, I have a hard time seeing his market as 15M/year. It may be less
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and if you look at that list as setting the market for
Anfernee Simons, is there any team there that would be likely to pay Simons over 20M? Simons is not a wing, he's a tweener guard. Now, those have more value than they used to; Jordan Poole being a good example. But still, that's not the sweet spot of NBA value.
there are only 4 teams that theoretically could:
*
Indiana has Brogdon, Haliburton, Heild, McConell and Duarte. They are loaded at guard and they have a top-5 draft pick
*
Detroit has Cunningham, Hayes, Joseph, and Diallo at guard, and a top-5 draft pick. And that pick + Bagley's cap-hold wipes out their space. Even if they re-sign Bagley for 12-15M/year (unlikely?), the most space they'd have is 15M
* I suppose
Orlando is a threat, but they have Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Fultz, RJ Hampton, and Terrence Ross at guard. Why would they have any interest in Simons, who would be an expensive duplication of what they already have?
San Antonio? They have Murray, Keldon Johnson, Josh Richardson, Devin Vassel, Lonnie Walker IV, and Primo at guard. And they have a top-8 pick
I really can't see any of those teams committing to Simons as the starter over what they already have. I guess there's always a chance, but it doesn't seem likely. And who would pay Simons 20M/year to be a backup?
I was thinking 40M a year combined for Simons and Nurkic. But when I look at the actual market, which is dependent on cap-space, the needs and guard units of the teams with space, and the somewhat limited game of Simons, I really wonder what his market value is. Simons finished 8th in the MIP voting so it's not like he has big momentum in his hype machine
I'm kind of thinking if the Blazers don't make the mistake of bidding against themselves they might be able to get Simons/Nurkic for a bit less than 40M
