Politics Official 2024 Presidential Election Thread

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Who will "Win?"

  • Total voters
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VOTER FRAUD ALERT: Thousands of Wisconsin college students were sent a text threatening legal action if they vote from campus housing.

Wrong! It is perfectly legal for students to vote from their college residence ― This is 100% voter intimidation & disinformation! Pass it on.

Young voters are now fearful that they will face criminal prosecution if they register and exercise their right to vote ― because of this malicious, inaccurate text sent to voters aged 18-25 by an anonymous party.

The League of Women Voters of Wisconsin has sent a letter to U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland asking for an immediate investigation.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
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I remember the fall of my sophomore year....went around the neighborhood and got trunk loads of political signs.....including blinking constructing signs and put them all in the front yard of a senior kid MARK HANNAH. Guy was like the school soccer star and a jerk to all of us underclassmen. Completely covered his parents well manicured yard. Maybe 50/60 signs! Memories FAMS!
 
So the Democrats or Harris supporters on here are claiming she will win....the rednec......ERRRRRR.....hillbil........ERRRRRRR Republicans on here are claiming Trump is going to win......each posting polls that prove their claims.
Is there historically a poll over the years, that is usually correct with its predictions? Is there a way for those to be shared here daily or whenever they are released. I'm just not sure what to believe day in and day out.
 
THE HCP said:
So the Democrats or Harris supporters on here are claiming she will win....the rednec......ERRRRRR.....hillbil........ERRRRRRR Republicans on here are claiming Trump is going to win......each posting polls that prove their claims.
Is there historically a poll over the years, that is usually correct with its predictions? Is there a way for those to be shared here daily or whenever they are released. I'm just not sure what to believe day in and day out.
Click to expand...

I wish I had a snarky answer, but the real fact is that polling has become less and less reliable. Cell phones making it harder to reach people and people don't pick up or return calls from numbers they don't know, especially younger people. Also, like so much else since Citizens United passed, everything is a commodity, including polling -- a lot of polls have popped up over the last few years that lean right, which floods the field and skews the averages.

Also, look at the demographics within some of those polls. When a poll comes out that gives Trump a 3-point lead and he's only trailing by 3 points among women, be skeptical, because virtually ever poll, including the right-leaning ones, have Harris well ahead with that group.

I give the polling a little attention, but the fundraising, early ballot requests by party affiliation, general energy of a candidate's support all are things that might be better indicators. I think also watch the candidates themselves to see if they seem to be panicking; if a campaign does some extreme about-face or does something that smells really desperate, that might indicate their feeling and internal polls tell them they're in trouble.
 
THE HCP said:
So the Democrats or Harris supporters on here are claiming she will win....the rednec......ERRRRRR.....hillbil........ERRRRRRR Republicans on here are claiming Trump is going to win......each posting polls that prove their claims.
Is there historically a poll over the years, that is usually correct with its predictions? Is there a way for those to be shared here daily or whenever they are released. I'm just not sure what to believe day in and day out.
Click to expand...

Assume all polls showing a Trump win are accurate.

Then make sure your family and friends vote.

You have two kids in California right now, where are they registered?

PP_2023.07.12_validated-voters_1-01.png
 
Disgusting fake story about Governor Walz traced to same Russian troll farm that invented fake story that Harris critically injured a woman in hit and run.
Video showed a young man claiming he is Black and gay, giving his name, and alleging Coach Walz molested him in high school. He said he was closeted, Walz threatened to out him and he was terrified of his parents knowing.
The young man named is alive and well. He said that isn't him in the video, Walz never molested him, and he was out about being gay in high school. And his parents were supportive.
 
THE HCP said:
So the Democrats or Harris supporters on here are claiming she will win....the rednec......ERRRRRR.....hillbil........ERRRRRRR Republicans on here are claiming Trump is going to win......each posting polls that prove their claims.
Is there historically a poll over the years, that is usually correct with its predictions? Is there a way for those to be shared here daily or whenever they are released. I'm just not sure what to believe day in and day out.
Click to expand...
Polls don't really tell us much. The main thing is turnout. Which party can best motivate their voters to turn out and actually vote.
 
PCmor7 said:
I wish I had a snarky answer, but the real fact is that polling has become less and less reliable. Cell phones making it harder to reach people and people don't pick up or return calls from numbers they don't know, especially younger people. Also, like so much else since Citizens United passed, everything is a commodity, including polling -- a lot of polls have popped up over the last few years that lean right, which floods the field and skews the averages.

Also, look at the demographics within some of those polls. When a poll comes out that gives Trump a 3-point lead and he's only trailing by 3 points among women, be skeptical, because virtually ever poll, including the right-leaning ones, have Harris well ahead with that group.

I give the polling a little attention, but the fundraising, early ballot requests by party affiliation, general energy of a candidate's support all are things that might be better indicators. I think also watch the candidates themselves to see if they seem to be panicking; if a campaign does some extreme about-face or does something that smells really desperate, that might indicate their feeling and internal polls tell them they're in trouble.
Click to expand...
Thank you.
So if you had to bet your house and dog on this.....who is winning this election and will it be close?
 
SlyPokerDog said:
Assume all polls showing a Trump win are accurate.

Then make sure your family and friends vote.

You have two kids in California right now, where are they registered?

PP_2023.07.12_validated-voters_1-01.png
Click to expand...
Son is good to go as a California resident. Daughter as an out of state student, but registered here to vote.
 
The Presidential election on the west coast hardly matters. We all know Harris will win in California, Oregon and Washington. What matters is the House and Senate. Then the local issues. That being said. At this point Trump seems to have the edge on the electoral map. Harris seems to be slipping in pretty much every battleground state. Looking to me like we have another 4 years of Trump and his family. Hope his handlers can hold him together this time. Just let him golf for four years. It's what he will want to do anyway.
 
THE HCP said:
Thank you.
So if you had to bet your house and dog on this.....who is winning this election and will it be close?
Click to expand...
If I had to bet my house (don't have a dog), Harris wins, but it's close enough that if Trump had pulled Pennsylvania (I don't think he will), then it would have been enough to swing the election to him.
 
kjironman1 said:
The Presidential election on the west coast hardly matters. We all know Harris will win in California, Oregon and Washington. What matters is the House and Senate. Then the local issues. That being said. At this point Trump seems to have the edge on the electoral map. Harris seems to be slipping in pretty much every battleground state. Looking to me like we have another 4 years of Trump and his family. Hope his handlers can hold him together this time. Just let him golf for four years. It's what he will want to do anyway.
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Never listen to polls.

Just vote.

I'm convinced polls are just made up to create chaos and ratings. They aren't representative of people anymore mainly because most people aren't answering phones of numbers they don't know or of texts they don't know.

Just show up and vote. Fuck what all the media try to create for chaos.
 
Strenuus said:
Never listen to polls.

Just vote.

I'm convinced polls are just made up to create chaos and ratings. They aren't representative of people anymore mainly because most people aren't answering phones of numbers they don't know or of texts they don't know.

Just show up and vote. Fuck what all the media try to create for chaos.
Click to expand...
Every leading indicator says he is winning Pennsylvania. He’s most likely winning this election.
 
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