Politics Official 2024 Presidential Election Thread (1 Viewer)

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Who will "Win?"

  • Total voters
    42
SlyPokerDog said:
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"Republic Party." LOL. I think it was Bill Maher the other night or two weeks ago that called out one of his panel for continuing to say "Democrat Party" and he finally just started calling the GOP the "Republic Party" and got a big laugh.
 
JFizzleRaider said:
I don't matter because I'm in a blue state, but I live in a rural area in a blue state. I've been surprised how many Harris signs I've seen. I thought for sure there would be much more Trump signs. But I'd put it at about 2 Harris signs for every 1 Trump sign. I've been shocked.
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Not cool, you need to stop stealing those Trump signs.
 
If you are anxious, knock on doors. Write postcards to swing state voters. Call family and friends and be sure they are registered and vote.
 
crandc said:
If you are anxious, knock on doors. Write postcards to swing state voters. Call family and friends and be sure they are registered and vote.
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Remember, all cats are Trump voters so don't let them register!
 
PCmor7 said:
Annnnd, again, we have a lot of that stuff that's favoring Harris and the Democrats.

I'm not sure where you are getting your figures. If you have something from an actual impartial source that shows Trump winning a landslide, please share it, because I'm not aware of it.

I am aware that surveys by Ipsos, Reuters and others showing Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting for their candidate. I've seen numbers that correlate with huge Democratic registration numbers among young voters who are likely to vote for Harris. Harris has a huge lead in fundraising. In Pennsylvania, Democrats figure they need a gap of at least 400,000 returned early ballots to feel they'll win and are aiming for 500,000 and I think as of last night with eight more days for early voting they are three-quarters of the way to the 500,000.

Yeah, Harris apparently isn't doing as well with certain minority demographics as Biden did, but she's also gained about 4% on Trump with non-college white men, who are a much larger voting block that several of those smaller groups combined.

Even if you are right and Trump's doing well, there's no clear evidence that he's forged some kind of commanding advantage.
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I am not saying it’s a landslide victory and I’m also not saying any evidence is clear.
What I’m saying is the indicators are leaning towards Trump on every battleground state including Pennsylvania and as of today Harris has lost her 3 point edge and is now neck and neck.
What my other statement was that it is very possible at this point Trump wins a landslide electoral college victory and still loses the popular vote.
 
crandc said:
If you are anxious, knock on doors. Write postcards to swing state voters. Call family and friends and be sure they are registered and vote.
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If one of my friends or family calls me telemarketing about politics i will fight them.
 
crandc said:
I lived with various calico cats.
Unlike Trump, cats do like women.
Can you imagine a cat groveling like Lindsey Graham?
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Cats have infinitely more integrity than Lindsey Graham. So do Crocodiles, jellyfish and rocks.
The Calico breed is genetically sexist though, the males generally die.
 
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No joke this will peel off more swing state voters for Harris than the Cheney endorsement
 

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kjironman1 said:
That’s why I look at election indicators instead of media.
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Forgive me if you already posted it, but i'd be interested in seeing where this info is coming from.

Because all early ballot indicators are saying one thing, so im interested in what others are saying - and frankly, what outlets are the ones producing the indicators. (I.E. interest groups, etc)
 
Strenuus said:
Forgive me if you already posted it, but i'd be interested in seeing where this info is coming from.

Because all early ballot indicators are saying one thing, so im interested in what others are saying - and frankly, what outlets are the ones producing the indicators. (I.E. interest groups, etc)
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Yeah I posted it. Registration and early voting numbers are all pointing to Trump closing the gap on any leads Harris had a month ago and increasing his lead in states he was already leading in. Then there is the very unorthodox but extremely accurate betting odds. Trump now holds a 57% chance of winning where only a month ago it was nearly a dead heat. Harris has done absolutely nothing to hold her leads in the states that she absolutely needs to win.
Biden won Georgia, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania Arizona and New Mexico and Minnesota. With all of those he still only got 306 electoral votes.
At this point Harris looks to be losing Arizona, New Mexico ???, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
The math simply doesn't look to be in her favor.
 
kjironman1 said:
Yeah I posted it. Registration and early voting numbers are all pointing to Trump closing the gap on any leads Harris had a month ago and increasing his lead in states he was already leading in. Then there is the very unorthodox but extremely accurate betting odds. Trump now holds a 57% chance of winning where only a month ago it was nearly a dead heat. Harris has done absolutely nothing to hold her leads in the states that she absolutely needs to win.
Biden won Georgia, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania Arizona and New Mexico and Minnesota. With all of those he still only got 306 electoral votes.
At this point Harris looks to be losing Arizona, New Mexico ???, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
The math simply doesn't look to be in her favor.
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Harris will win Virginia. Not sure where you’re getting your info but she has a substantial lead in New Mexico.

The way betting markets work is if they get big money on one candidate they move the odds so that they won’t lose the bag. I believe someone has put $19 mil on Trump winning so they moved the odds.

The polling community is being as cautious as they can because really they’ve been awful for almost a decade. To a point where polls have lost any credibility. It’s an outdated concept.
 
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