Politics Official 2024 Presidential Election Thread

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Who will "Win?"

  • Total voters
    42
kjironman1 said:
Hope his handlers can hold him together this time. Just let him golf for four years. It's what he will want to do anyway.
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No chance of that. He'll be firing any handlers who try to stand in the way of full blown fascism.
 
The absolute crazy part is he will not win the popular vote again just like every republican since Reagan. We seem to be the only country that cannot simply count who gets the most votes and give that person the victory. We also seem to be able to tally the tickets to a billion dollar lottery in seconds but can't seem to count votes in multiple days?
 
The women are going to save this country. They are registering in insane numbers. They are going to vote en masse. I don't think it is even going to be that close. I bet Kamala gets about 320 electoral votes.
 
kjironman1 said:
She screwed up with Blacks. Not exactly sure how anyone could screw up with blacks more than trump but she has done it. That and of course "White Women" who incidentally never support a woman? Go figure?
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How did she screw up with blacks?
 
Stevenson said:
The women are going to save this country. They are registering in insane numbers. They are going to vote en masse. I don't think it is even going to be that close. I bet Kamala gets about 320 electoral votes.
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I freaking hope so
 
THE HCP said:
Thank you.
So if you had to bet your house and dog on this.....who is winning this election and will it be close?
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I don't want to jinx it, but I'm pretty optimistic. I'll leave it at that for now. And it wouldn't shock me at all if it's not nearly as close as the networks are saying.

I'll add one thing: I live in big Trump territory. At least it was the last two times. There only are a fraction of the signs and almost no flags and banners this time around. His supporters aren't quite as bold saying it in public and trying to pick fights with the progressives. It just feels like they aren't as sure or they're been exhausted by his antics.
 
Phatguysrule said:
How did she screw up with blacks?
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That's why I put in the post " I'm not sure how you could screw up with blacks more than Trump"? But for some reason the 90% Black support Biden had has dwindled to about 70% and that is mostly men. The big problem is she is holding pretty steady at 54% women but only 27% white women nationally. How can 73% of white women vote for Trump I wonder?
Every National indicator has Trump winning this in a landslide of electoral votes but will lose the popular vote again. It's called gerrymandering and it really works well for old white racist men.
 
kjironman1 said:
That's why I put in the post " I'm not sure how you could screw up with blacks more than Trump"? But for some reason the 90% Black support Biden had has dwindled to about 70% and that is mostly men. The big problem is she is holding pretty steady at 54% women but only 27% white women nationally. How can 73% of white women vote for Trump I wonder?
Every National indicator has Trump winning this in a landslide of electoral votes but will lose the popular vote again. It's called gerrymandering and it really works well for old white racist men.
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What is this "every national indicator" you keep posting? I haven't seen any of that, and I like to think I follow a wide variety of media sources and am pretty informed.
 
Stevenson said:
The women are going to save this country. They are registering in insane numbers. They are going to vote en masse. I don't think it is even going to be that close. I bet Kamala gets about 320 electoral votes.
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I don’t think it will be close either. She’ll win a couple states that aren’t expected like North Carolina and Georgia. For the 3rd straight election we’ll see why polls are garbage.

I’ve been polled constantly and answer the phone realize it’s a poll and hang up.
 
Stevenson said:
The women are going to save this country. They are registering in insane numbers. They are going to vote en masse. I don't think it is even going to be that close. I bet Kamala gets about 320 electoral votes.
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You expect her to take every swing state, or you think she's gonna flip Florida?
 
BTW, how many of y'all are in the know on how it would be settled if this (very realistic scenario) happened? I had to look it up...

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PCmor7 said:
What is this "every national indicator" you keep posting? I haven't seen any of that, and I like to think I follow a wide variety of media sources and am pretty informed.
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Outside of polls taken by media we have actual regional and national registration numbers. We also have actual voting starting with interviews of people who have already voted.
 
kjironman1 said:
Outside of polls taken by media we have actual regional and national registration numbers. We also have actual voting starting with interviews of people who have already voted.
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Trump was way out ahead in early voting last time as well though...
 
Phatguysrule said:
Trump was way out ahead in early voting last time as well though...
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He’s ahead now also. Believe me I can’t fathom how people vote for the guy but they are? Dems need the kids to show up and vote and they could sure use some of the Obama Hope and Change mojo.
“Don’t Boo! Vote!”
 
kjironman1 said:
Outside of polls taken by media we have actual regional and national registration numbers. We also have actual voting starting with interviews of people who have already voted.
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Annnnd, again, we have a lot of that stuff that's favoring Harris and the Democrats.

I'm not sure where you are getting your figures. If you have something from an actual impartial source that shows Trump winning a landslide, please share it, because I'm not aware of it.

I am aware that surveys by Ipsos, Reuters and others showing Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting for their candidate. I've seen numbers that correlate with huge Democratic registration numbers among young voters who are likely to vote for Harris. Harris has a huge lead in fundraising. In Pennsylvania, Democrats figure they need a gap of at least 400,000 returned early ballots to feel they'll win and are aiming for 500,000 and I think as of last night with eight more days for early voting they are three-quarters of the way to the 500,000.

Yeah, Harris apparently isn't doing as well with certain minority demographics as Biden did, but she's also gained about 4% on Trump with non-college white men, who are a much larger voting block that several of those smaller groups combined.

Even if you are right and Trump's doing well, there's no clear evidence that he's forged some kind of commanding advantage.
 
kjironman1 said:
He’s ahead now also. Believe me I can’t fathom how people vote for the guy but they are? Dems need the kids to show up and vote and they could sure use some of the Obama Hope and Change mojo.
“Don’t Boo! Vote!”
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He looked like he was winning last time, then the big counties and mail in votes completely changed the picture. But best to keep assuming Trump is doing well and get everyone possible out to vote.
 
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