for the marginal players (maybe 2nd round), probably
but for even the star college players I've seen NIL estimates of less than a million for a season
the #1 pick, Banchero, is making 11M this season and has essentially guaranteed himself 50M over his 4 year rookie scale contract. Now, if you just want to count what he's 100% guaranteed for is first 2 seasons it's 22.7M
the #1 pick, Banchero = 11M--->22.7M (guaranteed)--->50M
the #7 pick, Sharpe = 6M--->12.4M--->27M
the #14 pick = 4M--->8M--->19M+
the #20 pick = 3M--->6M--->14M+
the #25 pick = 2.4M--->4.9M--->12.3M
the #30 pick = 2.2M--->4.5M--->10.7M
last year's 40th pick is making over 1M this year and has a guaranteed 4.8M over 3 seasons
Jabari Walker was the 57th pick and is making 1M this year with a 3 year guaranteed deal of 4.8M
and you'd need to add 8-10% to all those numbers for the increase in the salary cap next season...etc.
I think NIL will have to evolve quite a bit to compete with that. Now, if a player figured another year in college might move him dramatically up the draft ladder, then maybe he'd be persuaded to stay if the NIL was high enough