Official New Jersey Nets #1 pick Status Thread..........

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NJ possible finishes:

(loss)
4 way tie for 3rd
3 way tie for 4th
2 way tie for 5th
alone in 6th

(win)
alone in 7th
2 way tie for 7th
 
crowTrobot said:
chances at 4th pick if NJ finishes in 2-way tie for 4th? about 5%


edit: with cavs loss NJ can't finish in 2-way tie for 4th now. can only be 3-way, so odds of 4th pick would be even worse (3.3%?)
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OK, think I see where you are getting your numbers. Do not forget that the chances are redistributed, so whoever gets the 3 and 4 will have 107 combinations and 5 and 6 will have 106.

Originally the 3 pick would have a 46.9% chance of winning the lottery. With it having a lower combination amount, it would have approximately 34.4 chance. This is another 12.5% chance that has to be spread out among the 4, 5, and 6, adjusted since a 4 way tie only gets the 3 slot 25% of the time.

The four pick would then get adjusted slightly for its likelyhood to stay the same or drop.

The tradeoff is that the 5 and 6 now have better chances of being within the top 3.
 
What a clusterfuck this is!!!
 

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When somebody finds EXACTLY what the numbers are...... please share! Tired of you part time math professors thrown out bad info!
 
Charcoal Filtered said:
OK, think I see where you are getting your numbers. Do not forget that the chances are redistributed, so whoever gets the 3 and 4 will have 107 combinations and 5 and 6 will have 106.

Originally the 3 pick would have a 46.9% chance of winning the lottery. With it having a lower combination amount, it would have approximately 34.4 chance. This is another 12.5% chance that has to be spread out among the 4, 5, and 6, adjusted since a 4 way tie only gets the 3 slot 25% of the time.

The four pick would then get adjusted slightly for its likelyhood to stay the same or drop.

The tradeoff is that the 5 and 6 now have better chances of being within the top 3.
Click to expand...


thanks. yeah i thought of that but didn't know how to calculate the adjustment, particularly since it's at least partially offset by the redistributed chances also increasing the odds of 3rd ending up 5th.
 
HCP said:
When somebody finds EXACTLY what the numbers are...... please share!
Click to expand...


like they would mean anything to you :ghoti:


point is still valid. no matter where they finish the 4th pick is going to be a longshot.
 
So what is the final word? What is at stake with this Nets game?
 
nets lose - our pick will move up to #1

nets win - our pick will move up to #2

go raptors!
 
HCP said:
So what is the final word? What is at stake with this Nets game?
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if they WIN they'll be 7th for sure (or tied for 7th), and we'd be looking at a comparatively safer 84%+ chance at a pick from 7-9.

if they LOSE they could end up anywhere from a 4-way for 3rd (effectively a "4.5" seed) to alone in 6th, depending on if any or all of the kings, hornets, or cavs win. if they lose we could have as low as a 65% chance of keeping the pick, but the pick could move up as high as 5 (with a tiny chance at 4).

no matter what happens tonight the vast majority of the time we're drawing for a pick from 5-8, so unless you really value the 5th or 6th pick over 7/8 there isn't necessarily anything massive at stake.
 
There is nothing riding on this game. Either way The Nets will land in the top 3
 
crowTrobot said:
if they WIN they'll be 7th for sure (or tied for 7th), and we'd be looking at a comparatively safer 84%+ chance at a pick from 7-9.

if they LOSE they could end up anywhere from a 4-way for 3rd (effectively a "4.5" seed) to alone in 6th, depending on if any or all of the kings, hornets, or cavs win. if they lose we could have as low as a 65% chance of keeping the pick, but the pick could move up as high as 5 (with a tiny chance at 4).

no matter what happens tonight the vast majority of the time we're drawing for a pick from 5-8, so unless you really value the 5th or 6th pick over 7/8 there isn't necessarily anything massive at stake.
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I like the tiny chance at 4 with us jumping to the 1 spot ending up with 1 and 4 pick. Yes, that sounds good.
 
my sources say that nj will not move up into the top 3, but brooklyn will
 
The nets should have made it top 5 protected.

The gap between a #5 player, and a top 7 or 10 player is monstrous. I recently saw some fancy graphs explaining this. :]
 
my source says tinfoil hats are going to eventually be in fashion, once the celebrities are caught wearing them
 
toronto started james johnson, ed davis, alan anderson, ben uzoh, & magloire... and they're up 17-2

no way NJ is winning this.
 
NJ started Deshawn Stevenson, Sundiata Gaines, MarShon Brooks, Gerald Green and Jordan Williams. I think that makes Stevenson their PF? TANK.
 
TO is up by 20 shooting 38%? Amazing.
 
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