That's the thing, trump doesnt have to win it. He just has to show up, say trump things, and not make too much of a fool of himself.
Most of the republicans are asshats that are far too conservative for the average person nowadays. The republican party is dying, especially politicians still supporting abortion, one man one woman etc. Millenials will never vote for politicians that say shit like that.
People are tired of asshat politicians that don't know how to play the game. Trump is using his celebrity to play the game, and distance himself from the pony show that is politics. And people are eating it up. Clinton sucks, and frankly, she is likely to be the democrat nomination. I think Trump can beat her.