I wouldn't count on Ezeli playing more than 18 MPG. His career high is 16.7 MPG in a season where he missed 36 games. It would be great if he was capable of playing more, but here's his playing time over the last 3 seasons:
2013-15 - o Games, 0 MPG
2104-15 - 46 Games, 11.0 MPG
2016-16 - 46 Games, 16.7 MPG
If he's able to play 50 games at 18 MPG, that will be the healthiest he's been since J.J. Hickson was our starting center.
Like others, I think Vonleh is the odd man out, at least for now. Barring major injury, I think Noah will get Cliff Alexander minutes this coming season.
I think, with the addition of Turner as our starting 3, I think Aminu continues in the role he played late last year as our starting PF, but he will continue to see plenty of PT as our back up 3. In spite of starting all 82 games last season, AND playing two positions, Aminu only averaged 28.5 MPG, which is a career high for him. So, that leaves us at least 24 MPG for others to play the 4, probably more as I think Aminu will play more than 4.5 MPG at the 3 spot.
That leaves 4 players, Plumlee, Davis, Ezeli and Leonard to divide up the the center and back up power forward minutes. That's really not THAT big of a logjam, given that none of these guys are accustomed to playing big minutes.
Rather than divide it up on a MPG basis, as their will be injures (hopefully minor) and DNP-CDs, lets look at the total minutes available. Assuming 48 MPG available at the center position and 24 MPG (at least) available backing Aminu at the 4, times 82 games, that comes out to 5904 total minutes for these four guys to share.
Here's what they all played last season:
Mason Plumlee - 2084 minutes (a new career high)
Ed Davis - 1684 Minutes (second highest of his career)
Meyers Leonard - 1333 minutes (a new career high)
Festus Ezeli - 719 minutes (second highest of his career)
Total - 5820
Logjam, what logjam? Assuming Vonleh is not part of the regular rotation and Aminu sucks up half the minutes at PF, that still leaves enough minutes for all of these guys to play just as much as they are used to playing. The actual division of minutes will depend on health, effectiveness and match ups, and while a consolidation trade that improves the quality of our front court should always be considered, from a PT standpoint, I don't think it's absolutely necessary.
Let these guys fight it out in training camp, preseason and the first month and a half of the regular season to see who earns the minutes and fits in best with the other players. Use the two months between December 15th, when trades become much more doable, and the trade deadline to determine if a trade is beneficial and one is available that improves our team. There is absolutely no reason to make any move before then (unless a no-brainer trade drops into Neil's lap).
BNM
