The Portland Trail Blazers' season is over -- a lot later than nearly anyone expected.
How do they make the leap to title contention? What's missing?
Our NBA Insiders go 5-on-5 to forecast the future for the Blazers.
1. What do you foresee and advise for the Blazers this offseason?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Staying the course. We've seen teams try to prematurely accelerate the rebuilding process after an unexpected playoff appearance (cough, cough Milwaukee), but I'd hope the Portland front office doesn't overreact to the fifth-seed status. Remember, the team's 44-38 record in 2015-16 wouldn't have even made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Honestly? Status quo. Portland needs to be patient with the growth of its players. Sure, a bona fide stretch 4 or a 3-and-D guy would be optimal. But patience is the biggest variable.
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: With Moe Harkless, Allen Crabbe and Meyers Leonard restricted free agents, the Trail Blazers can go fishing in the broader free-agent market and come back and match any outside offers for those young guys. Money isn't generally an issue in Portland, and there's a good bet the Trail Blazers will opt to retain at least two of those guys.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The Blazers don't need to rush their roster building and there's no reason to overpay a free agent, though it's fine to kick the tires on someone like Al Horford or Chandler Parsons. Portland has to deal with the restricted free agencies of Leonard, Harkless and Crabbe this summer, then C.J. McCollum and Mason Plumlee next year. I'd keep them all. Most of this roster is on the upswing and the next big improvement in Portland probably stems from someone like Noah Vonleh breaking out.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: The Blazers have ample depth, so I think the best plan for them is to exclusively pursue first- and second-tier free agents who would actually be an upgrade on the players currently on the roster. To clear enough cap space for such players, Portland might have to let Gerald Henderson and Meyers Leonard walk, and re-sign Allen Crabbe and Maurice Harkless.
2. What's missing in Portland?
Arnovitz: The Trail Blazers need some paint presence/rim protection for a defense that finished the season ranked 20th overall. And no complaints if that addition had a goon-ish streak. They also could use a third scorer who can create a shot for himself, preferably one with a little more size who can hold down one of the forward spots.
Pelton: I think the playoffs have exposed a couple of shortcomings. The Blazers could use one more perimeter player who can create shots for himself or others when defenses take away Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. They could also use an upgrade in terms of rim protection, though that might mean sacrificing the playmaking Mason Plumlee provided from the center spot.
Doolittle: As well as the Lillard-McCollum-Crabbe backcourt played, in the long run the Blazers are going to need a dynamic defensive presence in the middle to make it work on both ends. Also, you'd like to see a little more of an offensive standout at small forward, though I really like the way Al-Farouq Aminu has come along.
Haberstroh: An Andrew Bogut to anchor the defense. The Blazers ranked 20th in defensive rating this season and gave up a ton of fouls in the paint. A true defensive ace would allow perimeter shooters to gamble a bit more defensively, where they ranked 25th in opponent turnover rate.
Elhassan: Patience is what they need, as I mentioned, but two-way players would help as well.
3. Who should be the primary center for Portland going forward?
Pelton: Leonard doesn't provide enough rim protection, so while using him at center juices the offense, I don't think it's workable defensively on a full-time basis. Davis is a great part of a rotation, not necessarily the leader of one. Plumlee was a revelation this season but struggled as a finisher and to control the paint defensively against playoff competition.
I remain intrigued by the possibility of Hassan Whiteside playing a DeAndre Jordan-style role in pick-and-rolls with Lillard and McCollum. If Whiteside isn't a cultural fit or wants to play elsewhere, I don't see a realistic young free agent who's a clear upgrade over Plumlee.
Doolittle: Portland is positioned fairly well to woo the bigger free agents and some of the centers might be a good fit -- Horford especially, given his ability to both defend and work as a screener for Lillard and McCollum. That said, if the Blazers don't make a splash with a new center, their current crew will again share court time according to matchups.
Haberstroh: Ed Davis probably gives me the most hope, but I still don't know if he's strong enough to be a premier rim protector in the NBA. I'd take a look at Ian Mahinmi and see if he can fill that spot at a reasonable price.
Elhassan: Plumlee, because he has shown the ability to not only finish but also make decisions and make the simple pass. Perhaps he can become more sophisticated in his passing, but even at his rudimentary level it makes life easier for the Blazers' backcourt.
Arnovitz: I still think Davis can be a starting center in the NBA, provided he were paired with a 4-man who can stretch the floor and give Lillard and McCollum the driving lanes they need to get to the rim. Leonard has the size, but I'm not sold that there's enough of a defensive presence there to make it work. In that respect, he and Davis make up a respectable frontcourt, but I suspect the Trail Blazers' primary center going forward might be someone who isn't currently on the payroll.
4. Where will the 2016-17 Blazers finish in the standings?
Elhassan: Absent a major offseason acquisition, probably a seven or eight seed. That's not a knock on them, but rather acknowledgement that the Jazz dealt with serious injuries and Houston seriously underachieved.
Haberstroh: Fifth. Remarkably, this team hasn't played a 30-year-old for more than 50 minutes here in the playoffs. This entire roster is entering its prime, so they'll improve on development alone. But I worry that Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum might burn out a bit if they don't get a third scorer.
Pelton: Despite their youth, I think more likely sixth through eighth than part of the top five again. Naturally, that can change dramatically this summer, but my sense is the West's second (or perhaps) third tier will be much deeper next season than it was this season. Odds are 44 wins won't be nearly enough to finish fifth with several lottery teams likely to contend for playoff spots.
Arnovitz: This question can never be answered in a vacuum. The Warriors and Spurs are locks ahead of them next season. If the Clippers keep the core together, they're good for 50-plus wins next season. The Thunder, Rockets and Pelicans are the big wild cards here, depending on how their rosters shape up. So throw Portland into the mix with Utah, Dallas and Memphis. With all that in mind, the over-under is a 6 1/2 seed.
Doolittle: Seventh. The Blazers should be a little better, but they benefited this season from various misfortunes suffered by teams elsewhere in the West. Also, Portland will be hard-pressed to repeat the excellent health of this season's roster.
5. Fact or Fiction: Damian Lillard will win the West as a Blazer.
Arnovitz: Fiction, though not unthinkable. Figure he has 10 seasons ahead of him, and the next three are unlikely. If he can lure a big free agent to Portland, or they can aggregate some assets to trade for one, or a very high pick that becomes an elite player, they'd certainly have a puncher's chance. But size and location of market continue to be a tough hurdle for the franchise when it comes to talent acquisition.
Elhassan: This is tough, as Golden State seems to be on a path of perpetual excellence and the tough competition in the West. I'm going to lean toward fiction.
Haberstroh: Fiction. I look at Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry and the duo in OKC, and just can't see Lillard coming out on top anytime soon. Sure, anything is possible, and Lillard has proved doubters wrong. But this is a 44-win team that caught a break with Blake Griffin and Chris Paul injuries. Would this even be a question if those guys were healthy? I love the Blazers' youth, but Portland's fanbase knows all-too-well that a bright future doesn't always work out as planned.
Doolittle: Fiction. Portland's young foundation is exciting and the combination of Terry Stotts and Neil Olshey overseeing things is as good as it gets. But there is just so much competition in the West and if OKC stays together, it's going to be tough to navigate through the Thunder, Warriors and Spurs any time soon.
Pelton: Fiction. It's worth remembering that over the last 16 seasons, only five different teams have won the Western Conference. The odds are against just about any team that's not already in the mix reaching that level. As much as Portland has done correctly in its post-LaMarcus Aldridge rebuild, the Blazers are still going to need a lot of good decisions and good fortune to win the West.
See this is why I love this forum.
