Playoffs vs #4 Pick

[e_blazer]

You're making a TON of assumptions that can't be made. The post is about having the #4 pick or making the Playoffs. And that boils down to:

Having an asset, or
Not having an asset

Since so many peoples arguments for the Playoffs hinge on internal improvement, that must be applied in both scenarios. Getting a draft pick doesn't negate internal improvement. So, next season, a team with both internal improvement AND a draft pick will (should) be better than a team with just internal improvement. And given that we'll have that improvement regardless of whether we retain our pick this year, it stands to reason that next years pick will be worse than this year's pick. Losing a good pick to retain a worse pick is not a good plan.

All that said, I'm in no way saying we should tank. But we absolutely should not be selling the future for a shot at a 1-and-done Playoff appearance. And to me, selling the future means making a mediocre trade like those you described (Anderson, Lopez) and/or playing for the win at the expense of development. Development is the #1 goal this season, and if we actually took it seriously it has a higher chance of paying dividends by increasing internal improvement and potentially putting us in a better draft position.

Well, if you're going on the premise of this thread, this entire discussion is pointless, IMHO. There's virtually zero chance the Blazers end up with the #4 pick. The Sixers, Lakers and Nets aren't going to improve from where they're at as the bottom 3 teams. With the Suns losing Bledsoe, they're the most like team to fall into the 4th pick.

I'm not arguing that this year's pick isn't likely to be significantly better than next year's would be, just that there's already an asset that Olshey would have to pass on (using some of his cap space during this season) in order to maximize the chances of getting that elusive 4th pick. I'm hoping that there's something better than a "mediocre" deal out there, but I believe that the more solid pieces that we can assemble this season, the better the chances of attracting a top-level FA this summer become.

 

[Denny Crane]

Well, if you're going on the premise of this thread, this entire discussion is pointless, IMHO. There's virtually zero chance the Blazers end up with the #4 pick. The Sixers, Lakers and Nets aren't going to improve from where they're at as the bottom 3 teams. With the Suns losing Bledsoe, they're the most like team to fall into the 4th pick.

I'm not arguing that this year's pick isn't likely to be significantly better than next year's would be, just that there's already an asset that Olshey would have to pass on (using some of his cap space during this season) in order to maximize the chances of getting that elusive 4th pick. I'm hoping that there's something better than a "mediocre" deal out there, but I believe that the more solid pieces that we can assemble this season, the better the chances of attracting a top-level FA this summer become.

I bet the 4th pick could be had for some combination of players and cap space.

 

[TBpup]

yeah but making the playoffs means we have less distance to go to being a contender and means our pieces have more value.

Not necessarily. In the East the last decade, were you better being a #8 seed with a 36-46 record or a Western Conference team that won 46 games but didn't get into the playoffs? One team got crushed and then a bad pick, they other won a lot of games and still got a Lottery pick. I wouldn't put either of them at 'contender' status but one of those teams was a lot closer to it than the other and it wasn't the playoff team.

This year for the first time in years, it is reversed. By tonight Portland could be a Playoff team on pace to currently win around 35 games. Let's say they get hot and get to 40+ wins. They still lose in the 1st round (again) and don't add a quality pick to that roster. They have cap space in a year everyone has cap space and some team may likely offer Meyers ridiculous money so you either lose him or tie up that cap space with a one-dimensional center. Remember, it's reported he already turned down a 4-year, $60Million deal.

I'm all for winning game but instead of the majority of history of the Blazer franchise of being mediocre and stuck in basketball purgatory, I would like to be a contender long term. Them being a low-bar #7/8 seed this year doesn't seem to help that given some of the other circumstances.

 

[e_blazer]

I bet the 4th pick could be had for some combination of players and cap space.

Good point.

 

[Denny Crane]

Good point.

Not only that, but if I were a FA, I'd rather sign with a 40 win team than a 20 win one. Especially a 40 win team with youth, depth, and cap space to sign more than the one FA.

 

[Natebishop3]

Durant or bust.

 

[e_blazer]

Durant or bust.

How many times do I have to honk?

 

[RR7]

Not necessarily. In the East the last decade, were you better being a #8 seed with a 36-46 record or a Western Conference team that won 46 games but didn't get into the playoffs? One team got crushed and then a bad pick, they other won a lot of games and still got a Lottery pick.

10-11 Season, Indy makes playoffs with 37 wins. 3 teams in west had better records. Indy drafted (and foolishly traded) Kawhi Leonard. Alec Burks, Markieff Morris and Marcus mOrris went to the lottery teams.
12-13 Milwaukee made the playoffs with less wins than Utah and Dallas. They took Giannis whatever, Shabazz and Olynyk went previous picks.

I'm not finding very many instances where the gap between the west team missing and the east team making it lead that west team to getting a great pick, and the east team a horrible one an dgetting crushed.

Obviously, this is off from the initial question of 4 versus playoffs. but I think too often, people both think any 8 seed is automatically purgatory, because you're in the middle, without any acknowledgement whatsoever of the ability of those teams to improve and also ignore what playoff experience can do for a team or player. Almost similar to the CJ thread, of how you can't win with him and Dame, seems like most view building a team as having a specific formula, and I think many teams have shown that there isn't a specific formula for building.

 

[BonesJones]

Not necessarily. In the East the last decade, were you better being a #8 seed with a 36-46 record or a Western Conference team that won 46 games but didn't get into the playoffs? One team got crushed and then a bad pick, they other won a lot of games and still got a Lottery pick. I wouldn't put either of them at 'contender' status but one of those teams was a lot closer to it than the other and it wasn't the playoff team.

This year for the first time in years, it is reversed. By tonight Portland could be a Playoff team on pace to currently win around 35 games. Let's say they get hot and get to 40+ wins. They still lose in the 1st round (again) and don't add a quality pick to that roster. They have cap space in a year everyone has cap space and some team may likely offer Meyers ridiculous money so you either lose him or tie up that cap space with a one-dimensional center. Remember, it's reported he already turned down a 4-year, $60Million deal.

I'm all for winning game but instead of the majority of history of the Blazer franchise of being mediocre and stuck in basketball purgatory, I would like to be a contender long term. Them being a low-bar #7/8 seed this year doesn't seem to help that given some of the other circumstances.

but we add a quality pick to help us do what, win 40 games next year just to lose our pick then? How does that help us?

 

[blue9]

I believe that the more solid pieces that we can assemble this season, the better the chances of attracting a top-level FA this summer become.

And I think that's where some of our disagreement stems from. I don't believe there's any difference in the level of Free Agent that we'll sign regardless of where we (realistically) end up at the end of the season. Whether we get the #8 pick or the #8 seed, we'll have access to the same Free Agents. I think we'd get slightly better Free Agent action if we get Ben Simmons, and the only way we'll get access to significant Free Agents is when we make it to the WCF.

 

[blue9]

but we add a quality pick to help us do what, win 40 games next year just to lose our pick then? How does that help us?

Because we get the high pick this year - in what seems to be a great draft - and lose the #18+ pick next year. We're losing a pick period - let's keep the good one and lose the bad one.

 

[e_blazer]

And I think that's where some of our disagreement stems from. I don't believe there's any difference in the level of Free Agent that we'll sign regardless of where we (realistically) end up at the end of the season. Whether we get the #8 pick or the #8 seed, we'll have access to the same Free Agents. I think we'd get slightly better Free Agent action if we get Ben Simmons, and the only way we'll get access to significant Free Agents is when we make it to the WCF.

Well, since neither of us has access to the information Olshey does in terms of contacts with agents and other teams, we're both just talking out of our backsides here. Neither of us will be involved in the Blazers' strategy talks or has a vote in the decision. I'll just close with saying there are a lot of factors in play and, as a general rule, playing to lose is a bad idea that just brands you as a loser.

 

[BonesJones]

Because we get the high pick this year - in what seems to be a great draft - and lose the #18+ pick next year. We're losing a pick period - let's keep the good one and lose the bad one.

were not gonna get a pick higher than 8 or 9 and I don't think this draft is very good. Kris Dunn would've been a mid round pick last year and now he's projected top 5. You guys keep acting like this pick is gonna be some big piece when it's not... when we could go out and sign the same level of player in free agency...

 

[BlazerWookee]

How is this even a question?
Get swept by Golden State and losing the pick would be a terrible damage for the franchise.
The fourth pick would be nothing but a good thing.

Bullshit. The fourth pick would be very small consolation for missing the playoffs.

 

[TBpup]

The Blazers just lost to a Utah team without 4 of their 5 starters when they were on the second of a back-to-back. Portland was also on a back to back but only missing 1 player so had many more starters and regular rotation players to throw at them. The Cleveland win looks way more like an anomaly after struggling with a bad Kings team and then a Nuggets team also missing 3 of their top 6 players. Sadly, there are so many bad teams in the West this year the Blazers might simply fall into the playoffs. That is not much of an accomplishment this year.

Meyers took 1 shot inside the arc until the last few minutes of the game. Vonleh didn't even get a shot the entire game until the oddest alley-oop play of all time in garbage time. Plumlee had one basket. The front court is where huge development is needed and if that happens, the Blazers will actually be better. Winning some games against so many bad teams when you have a couple of guards that can score isn't much to hang your hat on. If that is going to continue to be the case the rest of the year, I'd rather have the Lottery pick.

This team has beaten 5 teams in the playoffs so far this year. Utah (if that really qualifies) Memphis, the Clips, the Pacers and the Cavs. Only one of those is a road win (against the pathetic Jazz). So a young Blazer team can get up for a big game against a team that is probably overlooking them but I don't see anything that says they don't need a lot of help.

 

[e_blazer]

The Blazers just lost to a Utah team without 4 of their 5 starters when they were on the second of a back-to-back. Portland was also on a back to back but only missing 1 player so had many more starters and regular rotation players to throw at them. The Cleveland win looks way more like an anomaly after struggling with a bad Kings team and then a Nuggets team also missing 3 of their top 6 players. Sadly, there are so many bad teams in the West this year the Blazers might simply fall into the playoffs. That is not much of an accomplishment this year.

Meyers took 1 shot inside the arc until the last few minutes of the game. Vonleh didn't even get a shot the entire game until the oddest alley-oop play of all time in garbage time. Plumlee had one basket. The front court is where huge development is needed and if that happens, the Blazers will actually be better. Winning some games against so many bad teams when you have a couple of guards that can score isn't much to hang your hat on. If that is going to continue to be the case the rest of the year, I'd rather have the Lottery pick.

This team has beaten 5 teams in the playoffs so far this year. Utah (if that really qualifies) Memphis, the Clips, the Pacers and the Cavs. Only one of those is a road win (against the pathetic Jazz). So a young Blazer team can get up for a big game against a team that is probably overlooking them but I don't see anything that says they don't need a lot of help.

They played a crappy game and lost in Utah. That NEVER happens. ..oh, wait, that nearly always happens. Yeah, the team needs help, but using one crappy performance to make a point is a real stretch. Every team has some of these head-scratchers every season

 

[TBpup]

They played a crappy game and lost in Utah. That NEVER happens. ..oh, wait, that nearly always happens. Yeah, the team needs help, but using one crappy performance to make a point is a real stretch. Every team has some of these head-scratchers every season

If that were they only point, that would be quite right. Of course they lose in Utah often but when they are without 4 starters, is it not reasonable to expect to not be behind by almost 30 points? Since it was one of several points, perhaps the bigger picture illustration was what was intended.

 

[Denny Crane]

The Blazers just lost to a Utah team without 4 of their 5 starters when they were on the second of a back-to-back. Portland was also on a back to back but only missing 1 player so had many more starters and regular rotation players to throw at them. The Cleveland win looks way more like an anomaly after struggling with a bad Kings team and then a Nuggets team also missing 3 of their top 6 players. Sadly, there are so many bad teams in the West this year the Blazers might simply fall into the playoffs. That is not much of an accomplishment this year.

@HCP gave them a pep talk.

 

[maxiep]

You let Dame get to 100% before playing him and let our young players work out the kinks on the floor. We suck enough we'll have a high lottery pick.

 

[dviss1]

We always root for a team to win.

How is it not winning if we are getting a better pick?

There's more than one way to win.

 

[e_blazer]

If that were they only point, that would be quite right. Of course they lose in Utah often but when they are without 4 starters, is it not reasonable to expect to not be behind by almost 30 points? Since it was one of several points, perhaps the bigger picture illustration was what was intended.

Sure, but those of us who don't support tanking didn't make similar kinds of posts when the Blazers, without Lillard, beat the Cavs by 29 points.

 

[TBpup]

Sure, but those of us who don't support tanking didn't make similar kinds of posts when the Blazers, without Lillard, beat the Cavs by 29 points.

I'm certainly not supporting tanking and that was a very good win against the Cavs. But if you can praise them for a win like that, you can certainly call them out for the disaster against a injury riddled Cavs team...just being balance. I don't want them to tank but want them to develop players on the team who have talent but are getting very few looks. That is what makes this team better in the long run and not just a few fairly meaningless victories this season.

 

[e_blazer]

I'm certainly not supporting tanking and that was a very good win against the Cavs. But if you can praise them for a win like that, you can certainly call them out for the disaster against a injury riddled Cavs team...just being balance. I don't want them to tank but want them to develop players on the team who have talent but are getting very few looks. That is what makes this team better in the long run and not just a few fairly meaningless victories this season.

I think they're committed to the youth movement. Kaman isn't playing. The rest of our guys are all young and are part of the "development" movement. If you're talking about more PT for the end of the bench guys, I don't support that because it would come at the expense of PT needed for our core guys to develop. Who are you thinking of?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

were not gonna get a pick higher than 8 or 9 and I don't think this draft is very good. Kris Dunn would've been a mid round pick last year and now he's projected top 5. You guys keep acting like this pick is gonna be some big piece when it's not... when we could go out and sign the same level of player in free agency...

Honestly, I don't see a pick outside of, maybe, the top 4 making our rotation next year. We won't get a pick that high, regardless.

 

[TBpup]

I think they're committed to the youth movement. Kaman isn't playing. The rest of our guys are all young and are part of the "development" movement. If you're talking about more PT for the end of the bench guys, I don't support that because it would come at the expense of PT needed for our core guys to develop. Who are you thinking of?

I guess we have different ways of going about that. 0 (zero) shots for Vonleh in the first 47 minutes of the game doesn't seem like a big effort to developing the youth. Yes he starts but running around setting endless screens for the guards and handing off to them on a high pick-n-roll doesn't seem like it's really development.

 

[blue9]

I guess we have different ways of going about that. 0 (zero) shots for Vonleh in the first 47 minutes of the game doesn't seem like a big effort to developing the youth. Yes he starts but running around setting endless screens for the guards and handing off to them on a high pick-n-roll doesn't seem like it's really development.

Exactly. I could understand utilizing him that way for maybe his first 5 games to get him acclimated. But by this point in time he should have at least 5 sets per game ran for him. But Terry doesn't run sets.

 

[TBpup]

Exactly. I could understand utilizing him that way for maybe his first 5 games to get him acclimated. But by this point in time he should have at least 5 sets per game ran for him. But Terry doesn't run sets.

So the high school weave at the top of a key isn't a set?

 

[blue9]

So the high school weave at the top of a key isn't a set?

LOL! I thought we saw the last of that with Mo Cheeks, but nooooooo. Apparently Cheeks was also an offensive genius?

 

[TBpup]

Alex Kennedy was just on Courtside with Mike and Mike. They asked him about whether he thought Portland needed the Lottery pick more or the Playoff experience. He said that because Dame and CJ had playoff experience, it really wasn't that big of a deal especially since they would play Golden St or San Antonio and 'what good is getting crushed in the playoffs?' He said usually if you make the Playoffs, you may only drop a spot or two out of the Lottery if you barely climb in but since it is an Either/Or for Portland, he felt the Blazers needed the additional asset more than the Playoff drubbing.

Barrett immediately jumped in and said "that is up for debate" and started pooh-poohing the Draft as the good homer broadcaster he is. So they asked for Kennedy's opinion, then disagreed immediately when they didn't like it...lol.

1st Team All-NBA 2015: 4 of 5 are high Lottery picks.
2nd Team All-NBA 2015: All 5 are Top 4 or better.
3rd Team All-NBA 2015: 3 #1 picks, a late Lottery and a 2nd rounder

Looks like those high picks are doing pretty well. Playoff experience is GREAT if it is a competitive series. If you get blown out, all you learned is that you aren't good enough to win....which you knew already. I'd love it if Portland could make the Playoffs if they were able to keep their pick. But that is not the case and sadly, the West is so bad that Portland's poor record has them in a Playoff chase they really shouldn't be in.

 

[Tunchi]

Alex Kennedy was just on Courtside with Mike and Mike. They asked him about whether he thought Portland needed the Lottery pick more or the Playoff experience. He said that because Dame and CJ had playoff experience, it really wasn't that big of a deal especially since they would play Golden St or San Antonio and 'what good is getting crushed in the playoffs?' He said usually if you make the Playoffs, you may only drop a spot or two out of the Lottery if you barely climb in but since it is an Either/Or for Portland, he felt the Blazers needed the additional asset more than the Playoff drubbing.

Barrett immediately jumped in and said "that is up for debate" and started pooh-poohing the Draft as the good homer broadcaster he is. So they asked for Kennedy's opinion, then disagreed immediately when they didn't like it...lol.

1st Team All-NBA 2015: 4 of 5 are high Lottery picks.
2nd Team All-NBA 2015: All 5 are Top 4 or better.
3rd Team All-NBA 2015: 3 #1 picks, a late Lottery and a 2nd rounder

Looks like those high picks are doing pretty well. Playoff experience is GREAT if it is a competitive series. If you get blown out, all you learned is that you aren't good enough to win....which you knew already. I'd love it if Portland could make the Playoffs if they were able to keep their pick. But that is not the case and sadly, the West is so bad that Portland's poor record has them in a Playoff chase they really shouldn't be in.

Couldn't have said it better..