Playoffs vs #4 Pick

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TBpup said:
Alex Kennedy was just on Courtside with Mike and Mike. They asked him about whether he thought Portland needed the Lottery pick more or the Playoff experience. He said that because Dame and CJ had playoff experience, it really wasn't that big of a deal especially since they would play Golden St or San Antonio and 'what good is getting crushed in the playoffs?' He said usually if you make the Playoffs, you may only drop a spot or two out of the Lottery if you barely climb in but since it is an Either/Or for Portland, he felt the Blazers needed the additional asset more than the Playoff drubbing.

Barrett immediately jumped in and said "that is up for debate" and started pooh-poohing the Draft as the good homer broadcaster he is. So they asked for Kennedy's opinion, then disagreed immediately when they didn't like it...lol.

1st Team All-NBA 2015: 4 of 5 are high Lottery picks.
2nd Team All-NBA 2015: All 5 are Top 4 or better.
3rd Team All-NBA 2015: 3 #1 picks, a late Lottery and a 2nd rounder

Looks like those high picks are doing pretty well. Playoff experience is GREAT if it is a competitive series. If you get blown out, all you learned is that you aren't good enough to win....which you knew already. I'd love it if Portland could make the Playoffs if they were able to keep their pick. But that is not the case and sadly, the West is so bad that Portland's poor record has them in a Playoff chase they really shouldn't be in.
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This is a great piece of information, but it all hinges on the idea that the Blazers cannot beat either of them in a series. I think that crazier things have happened. While highly unlikely, I would never completely count them out. Would you?
 
Fonzthecpt1 said:
This is a great piece of information, but it all hinges on the idea that the Blazers cannot beat either of them in a series. I think that crazier things have happened. While highly unlikely, I would never completely count them out. Would you?
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If either of those teams is healthy, I can't see Portland winning more than one game and that would be just because the other team was bored or over confident. San Antonio beat Portland 4-1 when they had 5 experienced starters and had won 50 games. I can't see this being better, can you?

Of course it's not the Playoffs vs the #4 pick anymore....now it is more like #8-11 but the basic premise is still the same.
 
TBpup said:
Barrett immediately jumped in and said "that is up for debate" and started pooh-poohing the Draft as the good homer broadcaster he is. So they asked for Kennedy's opinion, then disagreed immediately when they didn't like it...lol.
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Mike Barrett is the worst. People hate on Rice, but the guy is a realist. Barrett is insufferable with how much of a homer he is. Good thing is Neil doesn't give a rat's ass what the fans and MB think. Dude is practical and understands the realities of building an NBA contender.

I don't need the announcers blowing smoke up my team's ass. I'd rather they be realistic, with realistic expectations, and actually acknowledge WTF is going on. MB talks about culture and what not about not tanking. What culture are we developing here in playing .400 ball? What culture will we develop by getting blown out by 30 in 4 playoff games? ugh, I hope he's not this much of an idiot outside of basketball.
 
TBpup said:
Alex Kennedy was just on Courtside with Mike and Mike. They asked him about whether he thought Portland needed the Lottery pick more or the Playoff experience. He said that because Dame and CJ had playoff experience, it really wasn't that big of a deal especially since they would play Golden St or San Antonio and 'what good is getting crushed in the playoffs?' He said usually if you make the Playoffs, you may only drop a spot or two out of the Lottery if you barely climb in but since it is an Either/Or for Portland, he felt the Blazers needed the additional asset more than the Playoff drubbing.

Barrett immediately jumped in and said "that is up for debate" and started pooh-poohing the Draft as the good homer broadcaster he is. So they asked for Kennedy's opinion, then disagreed immediately when they didn't like it...lol.

1st Team All-NBA 2015: 4 of 5 are high Lottery picks.
2nd Team All-NBA 2015: All 5 are Top 4 or better.
3rd Team All-NBA 2015: 3 #1 picks, a late Lottery and a 2nd rounder

Looks like those high picks are doing pretty well. Playoff experience is GREAT if it is a competitive series. If you get blown out, all you learned is that you aren't good enough to win....which you knew already. I'd love it if Portland could make the Playoffs if they were able to keep their pick. But that is not the case and sadly, the West is so bad that Portland's poor record has them in a Playoff chase they really shouldn't be in.
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How many of those all-NBA players were 8-14 picks? The Blazers would almost certainly be in that range. The draft pick is an order of magnitude more likely to get a future Aminu than it is a future Durant.
 
Fonzthecpt1 said:
This is a great piece of information, but it all hinges on the idea that the Blazers cannot beat either of them in a series. I think that crazier things have happened. While highly unlikely, I would never completely count them out. Would you?
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Against SAS I would expect four losses between 12 and 20 points each, and against GSW I would expect four losses by 20+ points each.
 
e_blazer said:
How many of those all-NBA players were 8-14 picks? The Blazers would almost certainly be in that range. The draft pick is an order of magnitude more likely to get a future Aminu than it is a future Durant.
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I agree. I think Barrett was correct in the fact that it is up for debate, otherwise we would not be debating it for the last few months. I watch college basketball and there are a few players that are pretty good. Just not ones who are great. Overall the quality of play in college is not too impressive and if someone can't dominate in the diluted college game, how am I supposed to get excited about them being a difference maker in the NBA? We have two SF's on the team already that were picked in the top 15 in their respective drafts, and they were easy to obtain without the draft.

Having said that I do agree that we are probably better off keeping the pick, because you never know...... we could get lucky. But luck is exactly what will be needed to land that 'missing piece" if we don't get a top 5 pick.

I just can't root for them to lose right now because my gut says the pick will not be anything special. We can find a Poeltl, or Sabonis, or Murray anywhere.
 
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yuyuza1 said:
Mike Barrett is the worst. People hate on Rice, but the guy is a realist. Barrett is insufferable with how much of a homer he is. Good thing is Neil doesn't give a rat's ass what the fans and MB think. Dude is practical and understands the realities of building an NBA contender.

I don't need the announcers blowing smoke up my team's ass. I'd rather they be realistic, with realistic expectations, and actually acknowledge WTF is going on. MB talks about culture and what not about not tanking. What culture are we developing here in playing .400 ball? What culture will we develop by getting blown out by 30 in 4 playoff games? ugh, I hope he's not this much of an idiot outside of basketball.
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I doubt he actually believes what he says when he isn't on the air. Look at when a player is on the team, they'll never say a single bad thing about them, but as soon as they're gone, it's open season. Look at Crawford and Fatty Felton.
 
e_blazer said:
How many of those all-NBA players were 8-14 picks? The Blazers would almost certainly be in that range. The draft pick is an order of magnitude more likely to get a future Aminu than it is a future Durant.
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No doubt. But, if we end up in that range, you have to look at the pick as a trade chip at least as much as a roster addition.
 
yuyuza1 said:
Mike Barrett is the worst. People hate on Rice, but the guy is a realist. Barrett is insufferable with how much of a homer he is. Good thing is Neil doesn't give a rat's ass what the fans and MB think. Dude is practical and understands the realities of building an NBA contender.

I don't need the announcers blowing smoke up my team's ass. I'd rather they be realistic, with realistic expectations, and actually acknowledge WTF is going on. MB talks about culture and what not about not tanking. What culture are we developing here in playing .400 ball? What culture will we develop by getting blown out by 30 in 4 playoff games? ugh, I hope he's not this much of an idiot outside of basketball.
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No. Barrett isn't an idiot, and any semi-intelligent person knows there are problems on an NBA team. But, it's a short trip from pointing out team shortcomings on the air, to becoming a whiny bitch TV crew. It's probably just for the sake of the audience that team policy is to focus on the positive.
Not a bad idea in general.
 
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handiman said:
No doubt. But, if we end up in that range, you have to look at the pick as a trade chip at least as much as a roster addition.
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But this isn't a binary choice. If the Blazers were looking to maximize the value of their draft pick, they'd do things to increase their odds of having a worse record in order to get a better pick. That would mean NOT making use of Kaman, Henderson, and/or their position of being able to do a lopsided deal before the trade deadline. How do you factor in the potential value of the asset that they may be able to obtain through a trade this season? Lets say the Blazers do manage to make a deal for an impact player by the trade deadline and are able to improve their playoff standing to sixth? The Blazers are only 5 losses behind the Mavs for that spot, so it's not out of the realm of the possible. How do you factor in not making a playoff appearance, especially one that might result in a few wins, in terms of the team being an attractive destination to free agents?

I've said it before, but my position is that successful franchises build a winning culture and keep the players who always play to win. That's Dame's MO and the same is true of CJ and others on the team. They play their hearts out every game and I have no intention of rooting for them to lose. If they play to win, but come up short and get a draft pick this season, which is certainly likely, then great. I'm all in on Olshey working his magic and getting another CJ sleeper with a 10th pick. OTOH, if it works out that they make the playoffs, I have no doubt that Olshey will find another way to improve the team this summer.
 
blue9 said:
But having the pick at least gives us a better shot at being a contender - or at least better. Not having the pick puts us much further away from that goal.
This whole "the draft is a crap shoot" argument is dumb. Your argument against obtaining an asset is that nothing is guaranteed - which is just the way of the world, not an argument.

The two choices available to us are:

1 - Have an asset.
2 - Don't have an asset.

Is there anyone that thinks choice #2 is better than choice #1?
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Too many posts to dissect, but this one stands out as furthest from the truth. Yes we have two choices. Your definition of the two choices is considerably off base...

There is a trade off. You and a couple other people keep insisting that if we lose the pick we gain nothin' in return.

Is that because you aren't able to learn from experience and thus place zero value on it?

How many times does it have to be said that playoff experience for young guys like this team can do wonders to psyche and confidence?
How many times does it have to be pointed out that we already have plenty of lotto picks on the team that are developing, so how much more valuable would yet another ? be?

Your only argument is that most star players are top 5 picks, but the percentage of star players in the top 5 of every year is less than 50%. So yes even a top 5 pick is a crap shoot.

I'm tired of people thinking this team cant learn and grow... are we all a bunch of old farts set in our ways who have long lost the ability to adjust, go with the flow and understand that people can learn from experience?
People can get better with experience?
What better experience than going up against the best of the league in a playoff series? If we get smoked, we have four games to stare at the other team and soak in the mentality of what it takes to win in the playoffs.

Do you guys think that you should be a shitty team until you can contend for all?

How many teams didn't make the playoffs one year and then made the finals the next?
Most teams GROW into contenders and most teams it starts with early exits the first year or two...

Ive seen the growth in this season so far already. If you haven't, i'm not sure what to say...

I don't want another prospect form the draft that we need to develop. We have plenty of people to develop. Make the playoffs, keep spirits high, make the right trades and contract offers in the off season and make it to the second round next year. If we do that, the next off season will be the final tweaks to put us into finals contention.

This is not as far fetched as some of you think...

This, however is one man's opinion.
:)
 
Playoffs all the way! There's no better way to take these guys we have and turn them into a contender than to get battle tested in the playoffs. What NBA player would not want to face the best teams in the world on the biggest stage and give em their best shot? It's the playoffs that brought Meyers and CJ to the next level..not the lottery. I don't follow the Blazers my whole life to spend a season banking on a lottery pick
 
Orion Bailey said:
Too many posts to dissect, but this one stands out as furthest from the truth. Yes we have two choices. Your definition of the two choices is considerably off base...

There is a trade off. You and a couple other people keep insisting that if we lose the pick we gain nothin' in return.

Is that because you aren't able to learn from experience and thus place zero value on it?

How many times does it have to be said that playoff experience for young guys like this team can do wonders to psyche and confidence?
How many times does it have to be pointed out that we already have plenty of lotto picks on the team that are developing, so how much more valuable would yet another ? be?

Your only argument is that most star players are top 5 picks, but the percentage of star players in the top 5 of every year is less than 50%. So yes even a top 5 pick is a crap shoot.

I'm tired of people thinking this team cant learn and grow... are we all a bunch of old farts set in our ways who have long lost the ability to adjust, go with the flow and understand that people can learn from experience?
People can get better with experience?
What better experience than going up against the best of the league in a playoff series? If we get smoked, we have four games to stare at the other team and soak in the mentality of what it takes to win in the playoffs.

Do you guys think that you should be a shitty team until you can contend for all?

How many teams didn't make the playoffs one year and then made the finals the next?
Most teams GROW into contenders and most teams it starts with early exits the first year or two...

Ive seen the growth in this season so far already. If you haven't, i'm not sure what to say...

I don't want another prospect form the draft that we need to develop. We have plenty of people to develop. Make the playoffs, keep spirits high, make the right trades and contract offers in the off season and make it to the second round next year. If we do that, the next off season will be the final tweaks to put us into finals contention.

This is not as far fetched as some of you think...

This, however is one man's opinion.
:)
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Unfortunately I have way too much work to do to get into all of this. AAAAAND, it's already been gone over again and again. But a couple things -
This imaginary "playoff experience" that we're suppose to gain is bullshit. We'll get stomped and there won't be anything to learn from getting stomped that we don't already know. Also, nearly all of our players already HAVE playoff experience. So: bullshit.

That "top 5 pick" statement isn't my argument at all. If you're going to call me out, make sure you understand my argument. My argument is: an asset is better than not having an asset. Whether we draft a player on not, having a draft pick is a great asset to help us build a better roster.

It's been said again and again and again - this is NOT a playoff team. For years we've been decrying the fact that a whole bunch of losers in the East make the POs every year. Now we're suppose to be excited about being one of those losers that makes the POs due to the fact that the West is suddenly weak? Get off it!
 
riverman said:
Playoffs all the way! There's no better way to take these guys we have and turn them into a contender than to get battle tested in the playoffs. What NBA player would not want to face the best teams in the world on the biggest stage and give em their best shot? It's the playoffs that brought Meyers and CJ to the next level..not the lottery. I don't follow the Blazers my whole life to spend a season banking on a lottery pick
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So what level is Meyers at now? Did I miss something?
 
Something to keep in mind, we are just coming off a softer part of our Schedule. It does get much more difficult for quite a stretch, basically the month of February and some in March.
 
Schilly said:
Something to keep in mind, we are just coming off a softer part of our Schedule. It does get much more difficult for quite a stretch, basically the month of February and some in March.
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Exactly. The debate isn't really a debate since we don't have a choice in the matter. I want the team to be in playoff position for as long as possible, but I'm quite sure they will ultimately fall short of actually making the playoffs.... and I'm very OK with that. We'll end up with pick 9 or 10, which is fine, but nothing to get excited about until draft time.
 
Schilly said:
Something to keep in mind, we are just coming off a softer part of our Schedule. It does get much more difficult for quite a stretch, basically the month of February and some in March.
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Schedules pretty much a wash in terms of who gets the 8th playoff spot. Basically, it's a 3 team race right now between the Blazers, Kings & Jazz. The Blazers are percentage points ahead with a record of 21-26, while the Kings and Jazz have played a couple fewer games and stand at 20-25. The Blazers' remaining schedule contains 19 home games and 16 away, with 14 games remaining against teams with losing records. The Kings have 17 home games and 20 away, with 17 of those games against teams currently below .500. The Jazz have 18 home games and 19 on the road, with 18 games remaining against teams with losing records. The Blazers have the advantage of having more home games remaining, while the Jazz have the most games against teams with losing records.
 
Nikolokolus said:
So what level is Meyers at now? Did I miss something?
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yeah..I know it's a stretch but before the Memphis series and his last game against Cousins...I saw potential and growth..I know he's slumped early
 
If we make the playoffs it means we would be a super hot team post all star break. In that case, anything can happen. Would we beat Warriors/Spurs? Probably not. Could a we steal a couple games? Definitely.
 
blue9 said:
It's been said again and again and again - this is NOT a playoff team. For years we've been decrying the fact that a whole bunch of losers in the East make the POs every year. Now we're suppose to be excited about being one of those losers that makes the POs due to the fact that the West is suddenly weak? Get off it!
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HAHA.. Great Point
 
blue9 said:
Unfortunately I have way too much work to do to get into all of this. AAAAAND, it's already been gone over again and again. But a couple things -
This imaginary "playoff experience" that we're suppose to gain is bullshit. We'll get stomped and there won't be anything to learn from getting stomped that we don't already know. Also, nearly all of our players already HAVE playoff experience. So: bullshit.

That "top 5 pick" statement isn't my argument at all. If you're going to call me out, make sure you understand my argument. My argument is: an asset is better than not having an asset. Whether we draft a player on not, having a draft pick is a great asset to help us build a better roster.

It's been said again and again and again - this is NOT a playoff team. For years we've been decrying the fact that a whole bunch of losers in the East make the POs every year. Now we're suppose to be excited about being one of those losers that makes the POs due to the fact that the West is suddenly weak? Get off it!
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One game at a time...it's not bullshit..it's called competing..if you think the playoff loss against Memphis wasn't a building block for CJ, Crabbe and Leonard, I'm going to completely disagree. I value playoff experience.
 
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If we aren't a playoff team, we'll get a better lottery pick for sure but tell the guys on the roster that it doesn't matter and see how they respond. Personally I think they want the playoffs and want a shot at the post season. Dame has already said as much. He mentioned trying to get a higher position than the 8th seed after the last win.
 
Of course the players want to win.....and rightly so. I'm glad they are competitive and want to do as well as is possible. That is the only type of player I want on my team. But sometimes you retreat to get an advantage. Look historically at the Battle of the Bulge. One side took a pretty significant step back to make bigger strides long term. Does that mean the soldiers didn't want to win? Of course not....their lives were on the line so it meant even more.

Who knows what the Draft brings and if things were a big big different, it would change the conversation. If this were a 'normal' West year and Portland was competing for the #8 spot at around a .600 winning percentage, I would say f#<k the Draft and go for it. However, we are just now climbing over the .400 winning percentage mark. .600 is a 50% increase....that is a HUGE difference. Also, if Portland were able to keep the pick no matter where they finished, that would also mitigate the circumstances.
Playoff experience is a good thing if it is competitive but getting blown out isn't of much use. Yes, CJ personally came out against Memphis even though they got smoked but he always had that ability, just had been slowed by injuries. Now Leonard actually stepped up but we've yet to see a repeat of that type of performance sense so not siure what he got out of that either.

This roster is very far away and has still yet to beat a team over .500 on the road yet this season. That indicates to me they need all the help and assets they can get and a 4-0 or 4-1 but kicking won't do much to help them in that direction when it costs them the asset.
 
See, that's my point..I'm not assuming a higher draft pick necessarily translates to an asset compared to playoff experience for the sophmores on the team and on the job training for the Monteros and Alexanders who are our current projects. You guys could all very well be right, but I just want the real deal every season. I'd rather add an impact player this season and go for it than bank on a rookie. This is the first season since Luke Ridnour was a Duck that I've paid some attention to college ball and I don't see Simmons or Sabonis as NBA ready players. I've been pretty disappointed in most of the games I've watched but the guy who stood out as NBA ready to me was Tony Parker from UCLA and he's probably not going to be a high draft pick..
 
riverman said:
See, that's my point..I'm not assuming a higher draft pick necessarily translates to an asset compared to playoff experience for the sophmores on the team and on the job training for the Monteros and Alexanders who are our current projects.
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I have to admit to being curious as to how Montexander and Alexteros sitting behind the bench in a suit during a Playoff drubbing will help with 'on the job training'.
 
TBpup said:
I have to admit to being curious as to how Montexander and Alexteros sitting behind the bench in a suit during a Playoff drubbing will help with 'on the job training'.
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They are just like high draft picks ..those guys learn the difference between regular season play and playoff intensity. They watch film, they practice, they get first hand experience at what's required but that was a developmental example, the rotation guys will benefit even more. Playing cowbell at Madison Square Garden with the Rolling Stones is going to build your confidence even if you don't get to play a guitar solo
 
Why so many long explanations?

Getting to the playoffs this year is like meeting a group of beautiful women but fooling around with the easiest and least attractive one right away.

Then the ones you like find out and want nothing to do with you.

Don't be stupid people.
 
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