Post-deadline Olshey Keep or Fire

[AFully22]

Yeah, everyone was stupid that summer. How s that an excuse for doing this same things as the Magic, Wizards, and Lakers?

Should've had some forsight. Smh. We've gotten no better since LMA left but it's year 3 out of a 5 year rebuild? Usually when you rebuild you build towards something. What are we building towards?

The dudes a joke of a GM.

It’s the same as failing a test and then being like “well other students failed too so it’s not just me”. You still failed the test, Neil.

 

[hoopsjock]

TPE would absolutely still exist, in that you have to renounce all available exceptions in order to use cap space. If the cap space available after renouncing the exceptions is less than the MLE, what would the Blazers gain by taking that tack? The ability to use the room exception too? Certainly not worth it. Clearly would be better off using non-tax MLE and BAE, keeping the TPE, and accepting the hard-cap.

Sure, you could make that work, but if we are talking strictly from a flexibility standpoint being hard capped and right up against that line is absolutely less flexible than just going way over the tax and being able to operate however you want (stupid rule by the way but that is a different discusssion).

 

[Orion Bailey]

Yeah. I'm not even gonna participate in this thread anymore. Everyone saying it hasn't been that bad have brought up historical facts and numbers.

I haven't seen one person put numbers to names as to a detailed option that NO could have done.

It’s the same as failing a test and then being like “well other students failed too so it’s not just me”. You still failed the test, Neil.

But if everyone else failed it then he isn't worse is he? He is the same? So everyone wants to replace him with the another guy who also failed...

Theres alot of common sense going around this forum lately.... NOT!

 

[hoopsjock]

It’s the same as failing a test and then being like “well other students failed too so it’s not just me”. You still failed the test, Neil.

I don't get how it is a failing grade. Teams like the Lakers get an F who drafted #2 three years in a row and had to waste one of those picks just to get rid of one of the contracts they signed. They are still stuck with the other one and might have to use the stretch provision just to get him off the roster which would be very costly. They haven't sniffed the playoffs since 2013.

I'm not saying it's an A or a B or anything like that but I still haven't seen a plan that would have resulted in a better team today other than @SlyPokerDog who suggested player options or lesser years on the contracts but even that might not have been possible.

 

[blue9]

Since it seems to be Neil's modus operandi, who will Neil get nothing for next? Nothing....or worse than nothing. We have to stretch a crap contract coming back or have to pay to get them to go.

Bazz or Ed. My money's on Bazz. Only thing working in our favor is that not many teams have tons of cap space - and those that do are going after much better players. So there's a semi-decent shot we can keep our average bench players on semi-team-friendly deals. Oh boi!

 

[AFully22]

Yeah. I'm not even gonna participate in this thread anymore. Everyone saying it hasn't been that bad have brought up historical facts and numbers.

I haven't seen one person put numbers to names as to a detailed option that NO could have done.



But if everyone else failed it then he isn't worse is he? He is the same? So everyone wants to replace him with the another guy who also failed...

Theres alot of common sense going around this forum lately.... NOT!

Who said anyone wants to replace him with one of the GM’s who fucked up in 2016? I would look to find someone up and coming or is on a GM staff that has a proven track record. There’s plenty of em.

I don't get how it is a failing grade. Teams like the Lakers get an F who drafted #2 three years in a row and had to waste one of those picks just to get rid of one of the contracts they signed. They are still stuck with the other one and might have to use the stretch provision just to get him off the roster which would be very costly. They haven't sniffed the playoffs since 2013.

I'm not saying it's an A or a B or anything like that but I still haven't seen a plan that would have resulted in a better team today other than @SlyPokerDog who suggested player options or lesser years on the contracts but even that might not have been possible.

I don’t disagree so much with who he signed, because it may have been his only options, I just vehemently disagree with the contract he signed them too. There was absolutely no reason to sign Meyers for $50 mil when he seemingly wasn’t able to find a contract like that around the league, Harkless is the same thing, and ET himself said he was shocked about what they offered meaning he probably wasn’t going to get close to that anywhere else. If Meyers, Moe, and ET were on even semi reasonable deals the future and current outlook for this team would be a lot better. It’s that simple. He completely miscalculated and over spent and he has now had to rid assets and cash to make up for it and will again soon, I’m sure. It is what it is, Neil fucked up that summer as did other GM’s who are currently on the hot seat.

 

[jlprk]

Like either you or I know how Neil is being measured by Paul. Again, if he's as bad as you say Paul wouldn't have extended him last year.
12 out of 30 teams have won more than 30 games to date, and we are one of them.

If you really are Trader Bob, you better call your buddy Rich Cho and tell him to get his act together.

Again...I'm talking about whether Olshey's bullshitting us about his unworkable "plan." You keep replying that Allen must like Olshey, or he wouldn't employ him. That's irrelevant to whether we should believe in the "5-year plan" ever coming true. It's just an smokescreen/excuse Olshey uses whenever asked a critical question.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Sure, you could make that work, but if we are talking strictly from a flexibility standpoint being hard capped and right up against that line is absolutely less flexible than just going way over the tax and being able to operate however you want (stupid rule by the way but that is a different discusssion).

But if you're operating from a point starting $5M below the cap line, even using full MLE, BAE, and TPE would have us ~$6M below the apron, still plenty flexible. Starting at that point and using the MLE & BAE and simply retaining the TPE would put a team $6M over the cap line, and $20M under the apron, with tons of flexibility. Unquestionably much more than we have now.

 

[jlprk]

I don't get how it is a failing grade. Teams like the Lakers get an F who drafted #2 three years in a row and had to waste one of those picks just to get rid of one of the contracts they signed. They are still stuck with the other one and might have to use the stretch provision just to get him off the roster which would be very costly. They haven't sniffed the playoffs since 2013.

Ha ha. You choose this as your example to defend Olshey from being fired.

Apparently you don't know that the Lakers fired the perpetrators, Mitch Kupchak and Jim Buss.

 

[hoopsjock]

Who said anyone wants to replace him with one of the GM’s who fucked up in 2016? I would look to find someone up and coming or is on a GM staff that has a proven track record. There’s plenty of em.




I don’t disagree so much with who he signed, because it may have been his only options, I just vehemently disagree with the contract he signed them too. There was absolutely no reason to sign Meyers for $50 mil when he seemingly wasn’t able to find a contract like that around the league, Harkless is the same thing, and ET himself said he was shocked about what they offered meaning he probably wasn’t going to get close to that anywhere else. If Meyers, Moe, and ET were on even semi reasonable deals the future and current outlook for this team would be a lot better. It’s that simple. He completely miscalculated and over spent and he has now had to rid assets and cash to make up for it and will again soon, I’m sure. It is what it is, Neil fucked up that summer as did other GM’s who are currently on the hot seat.

If they don't spend money to improve the team this summer after ducking the tax the last two years then I will absolutely join you here.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Who said anyone wants to replace him with one of the GM’s who fucked up in 2016? I would look to find someone up and coming or is on a GM staff that has a proven track record. There’s plenty of em.




I don’t disagree so much with who he signed, because it may have been his only options, I just vehemently disagree with the contract he signed them too. There was absolutely no reason to sign Meyers for $50 mil when he seemingly wasn’t able to find a contract like that around the league, Harkless is the same thing, and ET himself said he was shocked about what they offered meaning he probably wasn’t going to get close to that anywhere else. If Meyers, Moe, and ET were on even semi reasonable deals the future and current outlook for this team would be a lot better. It’s that simple. He completely miscalculated and over spent and he has now had to rid assets and cash to make up for it and will again soon, I’m sure. It is what it is, Neil fucked up that summer as did other GM’s who are currently on the hot seat.

OKay, Name a GM who would want to come here that didnt/// fuck up.

Ainge? LMAO....

Again the goal is to get better. So which of the few that didnt fuck up, do you really think wants to be in Portland?

 

[hoopsjock]

Ha ha. You choose this as your example to defend Olshey from being fired.

Apparently you don't know that the Lakers fired the perpetrators, Mitch Kupchak and Jim Buss.

Yes, because Jim guaranteed that the team would be competitive again within a few years and they weren't even close.

 

[Denny Crane]

But if you're operating from a point starting $5M below the cap line, even using full MLE, BAE, and TPE would have us ~$6M below the apron, still plenty flexible. Starting at that point and using the MLE & BAE and simply retaining the TPE would put a team $6M over the cap line, and $20M under the apron, with tons of flexibility. Unquestionably much more than we have now.

I think we don't have the TPE and Plums would be re-signed.

Then you wouldn't be easily able to use that $20M under the apron, and you'd have a much lesser roster to start with.

FWIW

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think we don't have the TPE and Plums would be re-signed.

Then you wouldn't be easily able to use that $20M under the apron, and you'd have a much lesser roster to start with.

FWIW

I'm responding to @hoopsjock based on the terms of the scenario he gave. If you'd like to change the terms of the scenario, then we're having a completely different discussion.

 

[jlprk]

If they don't spend money to improve the team this summer after ducking the tax the last two years then I will absolutely join you here.

That will last a year or two, but be unsustainable. You just can't fit 2 $30M/year guards into the same team without financial hell. McCollum must go.

 

[hoopsjock]

But if you're operating from a point starting $5M below the cap line, even using full MLE, BAE, and TPE would have us ~$6M below the apron, still plenty flexible. Starting at that point and using the MLE & BAE and simply retaining the TPE would put a team $6M over the cap line, and $20M under the apron, with tons of flexibility. Unquestionably much more than we have now.

That will last a year or two, but be unsustainable. You just can't fit 2 $30M/year guards into the same team without financial hell. McCollum must go.

I have good news for you. CJ's contract never goes over $30 million and Lillard's contract only does in the final year.

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm responding to @hoopsjock based on the terms of the scenario he gave. If you'd like to change the terms of the scenario, then we're having a completely different discussion.

I think we should stick to reality.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think we should stick to reality.

By...altering reality even further for the sake of the hypothetical. Sounds good.

 

[jlprk]

I have good news for you. CJ's contract never goes over $30 million and Lillard's contract only does in the final year.

I'm talking about the Orwellian future...in which Olshey is still negotiating contracts.

 

[Denny Crane]

By...altering reality even further for the sake of the hypothetical. Sounds good.

All things given in your scenario, there would be no incentive to move Plums. That we're $20M under the apron would make it useful to re-sign him. That and his fit was good with us.

Just sayin'.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

All things given in your scenario, there would be no incentive to move Plums. That we're $20M under the apron would make it useful to re-sign him. That and his fit was good with us.

Just sayin'.

Not unlikely, but still a different discussion

 

[Denny Crane]

Okay, lets break it down financially. If you don't include Meyers and Turner we are under the cap in 2017 and therefore wouldn't get an MLE or trade exception (we probably keep Crabbe too but for this discussion I'll keep everything else the same except the Vonleh trade since that was just to get under the tax). So we'd have a very rough estimate of about $5 million in cap space and if we used that we'd get the room exception of $4.8 million. That is still less flexible than a $13 million trade exception and a tax-MLE of $5.2 million.

So lets look at it without just Turner then. We'd be at a few million over the cap still. That means we'd keep our $13 million TPE and possibly have the full-MLE for $8.4 million and the Bi-Annual Exception of $3.2 million. Using those exceptions would hard cap us at the apron so it would be wouldn't be able to use the full TPE. So for this discussion lets only use the TPE for Mirotic and the MLE for whomever. That adds about $21 million to the payroll making us about $7 million over the tax line. While using those makes us better most likely this year and next year it actually gives us less flexibility this summer because we'd have slightly more in guaranteed contracts, no big TPE, and all the RFA's still.

Arguing the team could be better without Turner is one thing but it doesn't make us more flexible.

If we didn't sign Turner, CJ's contract extension would pretty much eat up our entire cap space and we'd have wasted that $25M in cap space.

 

[kjironman1]

Fact of the matter is Olshey is continually saying that Paul Allen will spend money and he will work to improve this team. I just think it was prudent to get under the tax threshold this year and save it for the next couple years.
To answer the original question. Olshey isn't going anywhere. The Blazers will continue to improve and a whole bunch of posters on here will see that this team is going to compete. Trust the process.
Another thing a whole bunch of people on here have seemed to miss is the projected cap levels. Eventually those levels will indeed increase at the rates expected. I believe this years jump will exceed expectations. That will give him more room to work with.

 

[lamlor]

Not sure if this was already posted, but it just comes down as another Olshey fail.

Marco Belinelli says Blazers tried to sign him during press conference

 

[PtldPlatypus]

If we didn't sign Turner, CJ's contract extension would pretty much eat up our entire cap space and we'd have wasted that $25M in cap space.

We used it to sign albatross Turner and Festus DNPzeli. We did waste the $25M in cap space.

 

[Schilly]

I'm going to stick with my interpretation of the situation... Basic summary, Neil came in took over a team that was meh... Made moves to get Robin Lopez and others to go around Lamarcus, had the team moving on a better trajectory then Wesleys Achilles blew out which changed everything. I think then Lamarcus decided going to the Spurs was a better career move for him. Okay fine we have a young PG and an unproven but talented young SG to build with let's punt on our cap space for 2016, fill out the roster with reasonable contracts a couple moves for young athletic guys, team is going to be horrific so we'll be adding a top 5 pick to a ton of capspace let's see what happens.... Boom we made the playoffs in large part due to the emergence of CJ. Then Neil also learned a hard Lesson every GM has to learn in Portland, Free Agent's don't come here. Sure the history was their but most GM's confidence will suggest they can do it better. Something else was coming down the pipe that needed to be a point of interest, CJ's was looking like a Max player for the Summer of 2017 and he needed to be extended. Portland wasn't in a position to have significant enough cap space in 2017 so it was more important to retain assets in 2016 than it was to let the cap space slip. We can argue the miss' the hits' etc... Harkless at the time seemed reasonable. We don't know the behind the scenes negotiating for Meyers, it could well be that he received an offer and Portland agreed to match it without an offer sheet to keep the cap flexibility in place, we simply don't know. Crabbe, people would have been ticked about letting him go if we had, and he was looking like a guy who could step in if CJ's extension became problematic. You can go down the list and while most of the Fire Olshey crew only wants to use a hindsight metric, I try to evaluate whether what he did at the time made sense and it's mostly yes it did, with a couple of hiccups, but you can say that about every GM.

BTW I personally would never fault a GM for a free agent deciding to sign elsewhere especially when limited resources due to cap and luxury implications are in play. Bellinelli for example we could only offer a Veterans Minimum, Philadelphia still has cap space so likely offered more, especially at a prorated rate. Can't blame Marco for taking more money when any of us would have done the same.

 

[Hoopguru]

Again...I'm talking about whether Olshey's bullshitting us about his unworkable "plan." You keep replying that Allen must like Olshey, or he wouldn't employ him. That's irrelevant to whether we should believe in the "5-year plan" ever coming true. It's just an smokescreen/excuse Olshey uses whenever asked a critical question.

I don't think he's bsing, I think he & Paul have objective criteria they want to achieve, measurable objective goals not subjective. Is he going to meet them all? Probably not! Are some weighted more than others, I'm guessing yes!
My guess is if Neil isn't contending in year 5, year after this, Neil may be moving on? However, if he is, give the man a performance raise!

 

[kjironman1]

Not sure if this was already posted, but it just comes down as another Olshey fail.

Marco Belinelli says Blazers tried to sign him during press conference

Guess it's all in the way you look at things. I would have considered it a fail to NOT try to sign him.

 

[Hoopguru]

OKay, Name a GM who would want to come here that didnt/// fuck up.

Ainge? LMAO....

Again the goal is to get better. So which of the few that didnt fuck up, do you really think wants to be in Portland?

Im sure no one will suggest a decent replacement that would put us in immediate contention or hasn't already screwed up somewhere!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

CJ's was looking like a Max player for the Summer of 2017 and he needed to be extended. Portland wasn't in a position to have significant enough cap space in 2017 so it was more important to retain assets in 2016 than it was to let the cap space slip. We can argue the miss' the hits' etc... Harkless at the time seemed reasonable. We don't know the behind the scenes negotiating for Meyers, it could well be that he received an offer and Portland agreed to match it without an offer sheet to keep the cap flexibility in place, we simply don't know. Crabbe, people would have been ticked about letting him go if we had, and he was looking like a guy who could step in if CJ's extension became problematic. You can go down the list and while most of the Fire Olshey crew only wants to use a hindsight metric, I try to evaluate whether what he did at the time made sense and it's mostly yes it did, with a couple of hiccups, but you can say that about every GM.

Again, if you look back at the board comments in July 2016, there were plenty of people who opined:

A) $70M for Turner was ridiculous, even in the new economy;
B) $75M for Crabbe was unreasonable, even in the new economy;
C) $41M for Meyers made no sense, regardless of what any other team might have offered him;
D) Extending CJ was unnecessary, since we could just as easily max him in RFA summer of 2017.​

If a wide-swath of ignorant message-board geeks could reach several if not all of those conclusions at the time (not solely in hindsight), it's not unreasonable to think that Olshey should have been able to see some of them.