That is massively short sighted.
is it?
I just went back to the 2018 draft (
because that's as far back as the graphic went at BBREF) and looked at PG's drafted in the top half of the lottery, and what they did in their first 3 seasons in terms of games played/games started:
Doncic - started 199 of 199 games
Trae Young - started 204 of 204 games
Collin Sexton (
8th pick) - started 197 of 207 games (95%)
Ja Morant - started 187 of 187 games
Darius Garland - started 181 of 181 games
Lamelo Ball - started 142 of 162 games (88%)
Killian Hayes - started 114 of 168 games (68%)
Haliburton (12th pick) - started 153 of 191 games (80%)
Jalen Green (not a PG) - started all games he played
Josh Giddey - started all games he played
Scoot - started 42 of 128 games (33%)
Anthony Black - started 43 of 147 games (29%)
obviously, this is undoubtedly an arbitrary gauge. There is the Chauncey factor working for (
or against) Scoot. There was the roster constipation due to the Simons obstruction. And you can go further down in draft slots and find lots of examples like Scoot. In this case, Scoot being drafted so high is working against him. For instance, Dyson Daniels, who was drafted 8th in the Sharpe draft, only started 27 of his 120 games in his first 2 seasons. But he started all 76 of his games in his 3rd seasons and made 1st team All-NBA on defense. Pretty unlikely Scoot will make any All-NBA teams this coming season
Personally, I agree with you that it's too early to give up on Scoot. Maybe that will change as the season unfolds if he struggles. It's also true that Scoot has been a major disappointment when gauged against his pre-draft hype and his status as a 3rd pick. I remember people saying that if it had been a 'normal' draft without a Wemby, Scoot would have been a #1 pick. He was being compared to Derrick Rose and Westbrook. Yikes!
being a 3rd pick, Scoot is getting paid: 10.7M - 13.6M -->24.3M. That's around MLE territory. It's not egregious, but it is a consideration
but the Blazers did make two big moves in the off-season...they brought in two veteran PG's. Now, maybe that's the front office signalling that they have little confidence in Scoot; kind of looks like that. Or maybe, it was more circumstances that didn't have a lot to do with Scoot. An opportunity to upgrade from Simons to Jrue. And of course, the feel-good Dame signing. Probably a little of both scenarios.