I understand your perspective, but I think that emphasizing the "safe floor" of Drummond is the wrong approach for this team, because they're in trail position for the championship. The Warriors going for safer options around their core would make sense, because it's currently their title to lose, so they don't want anything derailing that. Portland needs to win some bets, and Nurkic is a major one. Yes, there are risks regarding his health and small sample size of elite production but if he pans out as a consistent force, that could be the break Portland needs.
In general, when you're "losing," you should want to increase volatility and up the risk/reward. When you're "winning," you should want to decrease volatility. The Warriors, in the title race, are winning and we're currently behind.