Realizations you've made now that dame is leaving.

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Whole thing has gotten stale and this team needed some kind of change at the head of it. I think in the long run, it is best that Dame asked out now so we can get a good young core together and look for the future.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Because it seems to me like you broke it down to drafting well, but I'm saying that you need to be in the high end of the lottery for drafting well to really make a difference.
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Is that true though?

Golden St didn't have a top 6 pick before their run. Denver hasn't had a top 6 pick since Melo. Milwaukee hasn't since they missed on Jabari Parker in 2014. Miami hasn't had a top 6 pick since they missed on Beasley in 2008. Obiously we can throw out the Miami market, but even the Warriors built through drafting well, not high. The small markets who have had the most success recently, haven't done it through having a ton of top 6 picks. Yes, there are examples of teams having mutliple top 6 picks that have got good. There is also the opposite.

Seems to me that drafting well and managing your trades/free agency properly is actually more important to small market teams than having a bunch of top 6 picks.
 
Tince said:
I agree and I don't begrudge people for feeling optimistic. I'm speaking more of the folks whom appear to be confident that getting rid of Dame for two unproven young players is a no-brainer direction for improvement.

I continue to say there is a path where it works out better, so I'm not ruling out the possibility myself.
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Forgive me, I'm really tired, and I feel like I've asked this already but entertain me. What is the path that works better, realistically, for our team?
 
Tince said:
I 100% agree. I think Nate bringing up those players made very little sense because we didn't draft them, it was 20+ years ago, etc.

I also agree that the draft is probably the best way to have a chance at obtaining an All-NBA player in Portland. Of course, I'd also say, in the rare opportunity you draft that level of player, Portland needs to retain said player to have a great chance at winning. Which is why I was less optimistic that moving off of Dame would yield better results.

Now, if we trade Dame for a younger, All-NBA player, then that's fantastic and I'll be totally wrong!
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But what younger all-nba talent are we getting (maybe) unless we trade dame? Our assets suck. So it's not a realistic path unless dame is traded. Or we wait 4 years and trade again and dame would be 37. You had to cut it at the pass now or we're fucked for a decade.

I just don't see a realistic way other than what we are doing, and the only way to make it potentially move faster is trading dame. But I'm open to other ideas.
 
Tince said:
Is that true though?

Golden St didn't have a top 6 pick before their run. Denver hasn't had a top 6 pick since Melo. Milwaukee hasn't since they missed on Jabari Parker in 2014. Miami hasn't had a top 6 pick since they missed on Beasley in 2008. Obiously we can throw out the Miami market, but even the Warriors built through drafting well, not high. The small markets who have had the most success recently, haven't done it through having a ton of top 6 picks. Yes, there are examples of teams having mutliple top 6 picks that have got good. There is also the opposite.

Seems to me that drafting well and managing your trades/free agency properly is actually more important to small market teams than having a bunch of top 6 picks.
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Curry was picked 7th

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Really for me it's the top half of the lottery. I can't remember but I think I have seen data about how big the drop off is in terms of talent once you get past.... top 5? I'd have to do more research.
 
andalusian said:
I am well aware of the statistics. But the beauty of sports fandom is that it allows us to have fun hoping for the unexpected which we would not, realistically, be able to do in real life where you have to ensure your kids gets to go to school dressed and not hungry...

I guess that my lack of enthusiasm for Blazers basketball in recent years (before Sharpe was drafted) was because the reality was presented year after year that it became hard to ignore the statistical improbability that the team will succeed. At the end of the day, that's the only reason we really care about sports as fans, I suspect, it's an escape, entertainment and you can enjoy it with your fellow (wo)men with little consequences. With the new era, there is hope that at the very least, it will be different.
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1000%, which is why I continue to say that people can believe we're going to win a championship next year if they want, I'm not trying to stop anyone from having faith.

Personally, my hope in this being a team that can win has decreased in the last month and even over a large period of time, not the other way around. While we agree things are different, I'm not sure they are better, but I don't want that to be the case.

I hate to see people come in with unrealistic expecations for players/coaches, then when they are met, they lash out on the players/coaches as being bums or failures. It appears to be a cycle around here of building up the potential of young players, them failing to meet it, then wanting the proven players to be replaced by the potential of the next young group, which they will put unrealistic expectations on.

Again, if you and others think this next group is poised to contend down the road, you have every right to do.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Curry was picked 7th

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Really for me it's the top half of the lottery. I can't remember but I think I have seen data about how big the drop off is in terms of talent once you get past.... top 5? I'd have to do more research.
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I'll try to slap together a quick database of the last 10-15 champions and the picks they had 5-10 years prior to their title and see what it spits out. One minute!
 
Tince said:
Again, if you and others think this next group is poised to contend down the road, you have every right to do.
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Well, I can see a path that they will - but would not be surprised if they don't.
 
Tince said:
1000%, which is why I continue to say that people can believe we're going to win a championship next year if they want, I'm not trying to stop anyone from having faith.

Personally, my hope in this being a team that can win has decreased in the last month and even over a large period of time, not the other way around. While we agree things are different, I'm not sure they are better, but I don't want that to be the case.

I hate to see people come in with unrealistic expecations for players/coaches, then when they are met, they lash out on the players/coaches as being bums or failures. It appears to be a cycle around here of building up the potential of young players, them failing to meet it, then wanting the proven players to be replaced by the potential of the next young group, which they will put unrealistic expectations on.

Again, if you and others think this next group is poised to contend down the road, you have every right to do.
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We could still win the Summer League Championship next year. Why do you have to be such a wet blanket!
 
Tince said:
1000%, which is why I continue to say that people can believe we're going to win a championship next year if they want, I'm not trying to stop anyone from having faith.

Personally, my hope in this being a team that can win has decreased in the last month and even over a large period of time, not the other way around. While we agree things are different, I'm not sure they are better, but I don't want that to be the case.

I hate to see people come in with unrealistic expecations for players/coaches, then when they are met, they lash out on the players/coaches as being bums or failures. It appears to be a cycle around here of building up the potential of young players, them failing to meet it, then wanting the proven players to be replaced by the potential of the next young group, which they will put unrealistic expectations on.

Again, if you and others think this next group is poised to contend down the road, you have every right to do.
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debbie-downer-saturday-night-live.gif


I don't think anyone thinks we will compete next year.

Our runway to put a winner together around Scoot just is tremendously longer than the runway we had for Dame. That runway was 1-2 years away from downsliding with him as our best player without many tools to add much to him.
 
Tince said:
I'll try to slap together a quick database of the last 10-15 champions and the picks they had 5-10 years prior to their title and see what it spits out. One minute!
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@Natebishop3

There was no great database due to all the trades and whatnot, so I slapped something into a spreadsheet showing the location of each 1st round pick. Highlighted the busts in red and all-stars in green. The picks inside the black area are the picks the championship team had 5-9 drafts prior to winning it all. Looks like having multiple top 6 picks in that range only happened once for championship team and one of those wasn't even an all-star. Even my theory that they have to draft well (at least in the first round) is somewhat debunked.

It's clear that teams who win titles, on average, don't do so off the backs of a lot of high draft picks of their own. Trades make it too complicated, but should obviously be factored in.

upload_2023-7-14_15-10-22.png
 
Tince said:
@Natebishop3

There was no great database due to all the trades and whatnot, so I slapped something into a spreadsheet showing the location of each 1st round pick. Highlighted the busts in red and all-stars in green. The picks inside the black area are the picks the championship team had 5-9 drafts prior to winning it all. Looks like having multiple top 6 picks in that range only happened once for championship team and one of those wasn't even an all-star. Even my theory that they have to draft well (at least in the first round) is somewhat debunked.

It's clear that teams who win titles, on average, don't do so off the backs of a lot of high draft picks of their own. Trades make it too complicated, but should obviously be factored in.

View attachment 56943
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Great visual!
 
Tince said:
@Natebishop3

There was no great database due to all the trades and whatnot, so I slapped something into a spreadsheet showing the location of each 1st round pick. Highlighted the busts in red and all-stars in green. The picks inside the black area are the picks the championship team had 5-9 drafts prior to winning it all. Looks like having multiple top 6 picks in that range only happened once for championship team and one of those wasn't even an all-star. Even my theory that they have to draft well (at least in the first round) is somewhat debunked.

It's clear that teams who win titles, on average, don't do so off the backs of a lot of high draft picks of their own. Trades make it too complicated, but should obviously be factored in.

View attachment 56943
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Appreciate your work, but here is the issue. It's in a vacuum. That vacuum is called, "All team have equal access to team-changing all stars". It appears you want it to be fair, but is not...and will not be so. The path of drafting our success may not be successful, and your data may display that. But it is the Trailblazers path.
 
BassPlaya said:
Appreciate your work, but here is the issue. It's in a vacuum. That vacuum is called, "All team have equal access to team-changing all stars". It appears you want it to be fair, but is not...and will not be so. The path of drafting our success may not be successful, and your data may display that. But it is the Trailblazers path.
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I agree. You shouldn't take it as the gospal. No team is exactly like Portland, no time period will be exactly like this one. I'd throw out the Lakers/Warriors pretty quickly. I do think Denver/Milwaukee are fair to look at. There is no doubting, no matter if it was a small market, FA destination city, etc. that NO team in the last 12 years built a championship winner based around all-stars taken by them, at the top of the draft.

Like you suggested, Portland could be the exception to the rule, just like they attempted to be the excwption to the rule by building a contender with a bunch of tiny guards who aren't great at defense. If I were in charge, I would try to not be the exception to the rule and make the path that much more narrow.
 
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I went from big Dame supporter to “Indifferent”

I want best value. If he goes to Miami I won’t pull for or against him.

the longer this plays out the more likely he stays. And I’m ok with that.

there are some that have wanted to trade him for awhile and I’ve never been in that camp
 
Ive realized there are so many very important parts of life and as much as i love Dame and the Blazers, this drama is not part of what i consider important in my life. Im half checked out until its resolved… in part because it does hurt to watch this all go down how it has.

Thats what ive realized.
 
Reminds me of when we traded Sheed after making those runs to the WCF and we started over. It's going to be a long rebuild but we will be good again. Hopefully this time we draft right though and stay away from bad knees.
 
Chris Craig said:
Reminds me of when we traded Sheed after making those runs to the WCF and we started over. It's going to be a long rebuild but we will be good again. Hopefully this time we draft right though and stay away from bad knees.
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The rebuild wasn’t even that long.
 
After the championship team that wasn’t — Roy, Oden, LMA, Batum, Rudy — to the Lillard era with LMA, Wesley, RoLo, Batum that almost was and then it fell apart … with Wesley’s heel problems to the Achilles … Batum’s inconsistency and paid big $$$ … LMA high maintenance and bailed. Done.

The asset acquisition phase never got there despite getting to the WCF. I had one hope. Rodney Hood. Got his own shot in the paint and the fadeaway on the baseline with decent handles, size, and D at the SF like Evan Turner BUT he hit from 3 and didn’t pound the rock into submission! I thought he could be that actual frigging 3 and D guy. Not a star but what the team needed most.

Hoodie got hurt. He was soon gone, and the Blazers have not had a SF since.
Because Olshey was an idiot, put patches on top of patches and wasted DPs at the same time and wouldn’t trade CJ … that was it.

It’s not Cronin. He cleaned up Olshey’s gift that kept giving. Imperfectly, no doubt, AND he didn’t get what Lillard needed to have a contending team. He did get 2nd round draft capital, got 2 young studs for the rebuild along with hardworking young forwards in Murray, Walker, and Rupert to go with Matisse and Jerami … and we’ve got Ant and Nurkic — the old-timer-Blazers.

I enjoyed the Lillard years. All of them.
Now, I’d like to see them play with positional size, take care of the defensive glass, grab and go, or get right into the offense — with ball and man moving. I look forward to what he adds from the Lillard trade.
 
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I've come to realize that we might actually break the cycle of incompetence/bad luck about our star players.

Rasheed was a cornerstone, and we lost him for Shareef Abdul Rahim.

Roy looked amazing, and we lost him for nothing due to injury.

Oden looked amazing, and we lost him for nothing due to injury.

Aldridge was an All Star and a cornerstone to build around with Dame and CJ, and we lost him for nothing to free agency.

Imagine if the Spurs had lost Duncan, Robinson, Ginobili and Parker all early-to-mid their career without hardly any compensation. That's basically been our life this millennium. We've had guys, really good guys, and they all just vanished like tears in the rain. So much equity lost without compensation.

Now here we are again facing the same goddamned thing, and for once, just once, we may actually come out of it with, I don't know, SOMEthing. Christ, ANYTHING would be an improvement given our track record. But jeez, it's looking really fucking promising!

And on top of that, we actually have cornerstones in Shae and Scoot to build around? Sign me the fuck up!
 
mook said:
Rasheed was a cornerstone, and we lost him for Shareef Abdul Rahim.
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Don’t forget Ratliff was part of that deal; he was a key part in the PritchSlap that got Portland the Roy pick.
 
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