Sam Hinkie: The anti-Olshey (1 Viewer)

[KingSpeed]

This is precisely where the Blazers are at: a nice little team who'll make the playoffs—then promptly ousted by the legitimate Western powers. Neil is satisfied with this approach, and was borderline gleeful about this position in his end of the season presser.



Another aspect that goes against Neil's philosophy: creativity and knowing how to use assets over impulse. This is how this team got anchored with Turner and Meyers. If you factor in his targets that he failed to get, it'd be so much worse: Parsons/Melo/Monroe/etc.

In short:

FIRE NEIL — HIRE HINKIE!

But right now, all Philly is a team that can win in the first round and fall to an 0-2 record in the second round. He hasn't necessarily built a team that will EVER win a title. So it's jumping the gun to say Hinkie did a better job than Neil has done. We would've beaten Miami too.

 

[KingSpeed]

Theres no dumb luck required. Just draft well.

Like when they drafted Nerlens Noel and Okafor?

 

[KingSpeed]

I agree 100%... Olshey only makes minor deals... he is a coward IMO... does just enough to keep his job, but scared to take a risk to possible greatness... every year he says you can’t make a trade just to make a trade... the problem is he has been saying it for 6+ years... at some point if the deal still hasn’t been made maybe it’s the GM. This team is going nowhere fast as constructed... meaning the Dame/CJ combo

RHJ and Steve Blake for Nurkic/Connaughton/Collins was a pretty great trade if you ask me.

 

[KingSpeed]

They're doing this with Embiid, Simmons, and no other top draft picks. So drafting the right guys at the top 2 years in a row and surrounding them with the right role players is all it is.

Ben and Embiid weren't drafted in a back to back years. Embiid was drafted in 2014 and Simmons was drafted in 2016. They fucked up a bit a long the way. 12 teams blew the draft in 2017. There is an element of luck. I mean, Brooklyn has Okafor and Russell, two top 3 draft picks. How are they doing?

 

[BonesJones]

RHJ and Steve Blake for Nurkic/Connaughton/Collins was a pretty great trade if you ask me.

Id rather have RHJ than Plumlee and Connaughton, so that wasn't a great deal. Plumlee for Nurk was.

You always forgot to add in that we essentially traded a 1st for Collins.

So essentially, he only had one positive trade for us. Yikes.

 

[BonesJones]

Ben and Embiid weren't drafted in a back to back years. Embiid was drafted in 2014 and Simmons was drafted in 2016. They fucked up a bit a long the way. 12 teams blew the draft in 2017. There is an element of luck. I mean, Brooklyn has Okafor and Russell, two top 3 draft picks. How are they doing?

If Embiid plays in 2014 they likely get Porzingas and Russell though.

 

[KingSpeed]

Id rather have RHJ than Plumlee and Connaughton, so that wasn't a great deal. Plumlee for Nurk was.

You always forgot to add in that we essentially traded a 1st for Collins.

So essentially, he only had one positive trade for us. Yikes.

We needed to trade RHJ and Blake to ultimately get Nurk. That is a great fucking deal and then we turned the extra pick we got in the deal to move up and get Collins.

 

[KingSpeed]

You have to be very good at drafting but lucky too. I mean Sacramento gets a top pick every year and how are they doing?

 

[KingSpeed]

You can great players in draft without sucking for 5 years. Kawhi Leonard and Donovan Mitchell were drafted by playoff teams. So was Kobe Bryant.

 

[BonesJones]

We needed to trade RHJ and Blake to ultimately get Nurk. That is a great fucking deal and then we turned the extra pick we got in the deal to move up and get Collins.

Do you not think I know the moves that happened? Then why are you repeating them to me?

He had one good deal. The deal was so good that the original deal for Plumlee looks good too, even though by itself, it wasnt.

Denver probably trades Nurk and #20 for RHJ in that scenario as well.

 

[BonesJones]

You have to be very good at drafting but lucky too. I mean Sacramento gets a top pick every year and how are they doing?

It's not that they're unlucky it's that they're drafting bad. I'd be a better drafter than Sacremento. At 10 I would've drafted Donovan Mitchell. I supported the idea of us trading up to get him. I was begging for us to draft Lillard on 2012.. I had just turned 16. Its not hard to draft well, some front offices just try to get too cute and overlook the same things over and over again.

 

[BonesJones]

You can great players in draft without sucking for 5 years. Kawhi Leonard and Donovan Mitchell were drafted by playoff teams. So was Kobe Bryant.

You bring up luck in terms of drafting well at the top of the draft, but not in the middle to bottom of the draft?...

 

[Sarni]

Lost in all this is that, although Curry was picked lower than he should've been, he was a still a highish lottery pick. Klay Thompson was also a lottery pick. Both were great picks, but they also depended on literal dumb luck - the luck that GMs picking before them were dumb. So it's all about great drafting. I think Presti's picks of Westbrook and Harden are arguably better just because he took them HIGHER than they were expected to go. You have to have faith in yourself and not be saying "well, I really like X but DraftExpress will laugh at me because they've got him ranked ten places lower." I bet there were a lot of people in front offices who would've picked Draymond Green way higher, but were drowned out by "conventional wisdom".

Warriors has tremendous luck in the draft. Substitute Curry, Thompson or Green with basically any player that went above them and they wouldn’t have won those championships. Basically perfect players falling into their hands at a perfect time.

 

[Sarni]

It's not that they're unlucky it's that they're drafting bad. I'd be a better drafter than Sacremento. At 10 I would've drafted Donovan Mitchell. I supported the idea of us trading up to get him. I was begging for us to draft Lillard on 2012.. I had just turned 16. Its not hard to draft well, some front offices just try to get too cute and overlook the same things over and over again.

Yeah Sacramento are an extreme case. I did a breakdown of their drafts recently.

2011: had no. 7 and allowed Charlotte to take Biyombo with it. Could have got Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard or Kemba Walker among others.

2012: took Thomas Robinson at 5 and passed on Lillard, Drummond and Barnes.

2013: took McLemore at 7 ahead of McCollum, Adams, Antetokounmpo and Caldwell-Pope (he is not great but much better than McLemore ever was).

2014: took Stauskas at 8 but players that came after weren’t really amazing either. Warren, Harris, Saric were best but still nothing obvious.

2015: took Cayley Stein at 6 ahead of Turner, Booker but then again a lot of players just below him have not really been better than WCS either.

2016: traded their pick and actually got a decent return in Papagiannis (released), Labissiere (he’s fine) and Bogdanovic (he’s very good).

2017: took Fox who is good and fun, needlessly traded no. 10 to get Jackson and Giles, could have taken Mitchell but so could everybody else.

They have been better in the recent drafts but still wasted so many picks before. You cannot always get them right, of course, but they NEVER got it even remotely close to right between 2011 and 2015. That’s a truly bad record and they have missed out on several potential franchise changing players during this time. It’s inexcusable. Even Phoenix got Booker to show for it, Sacramento have basically got nothing for years of tanking. Fox is the first player they might be able to build around.

That said, Orlando are just as bad. Wasted so many picks on average players and even the ones they seemed to have got right have not progressed much so far - Gordon, even Isaac (early days). Players like Payton and Hezonja they had to let go for nothing because they wouldn’t even keep them.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I think it’s easy to list out players that panned out or didn’t pan out and forget about the environments they’re put into, coaching, veterans around them, opportunities to play.

Most guys in the draft have a lot of development to do, and some guys just don’t have the same motor once they start cashing NBA checks and it’s really hard get all that stuff right. That’s the job of the GM though, and that’s why Sacramento and Orlando keep going through GM’s.

What would Mitchell be had he been drafted by Sacramento? With a much worse situation. Yes there is “luck” in the NBA draft, but there is also a lot too building a culture, and internal systems that can help make guys successful. I think Portland has been somewhat average at this. Where as Orlando and Sac Town have really sucked at it.

 

[Sarni]

Ben and Embiid weren't drafted in a back to back years. Embiid was drafted in 2014 and Simmons was drafted in 2016. They fucked up a bit a long the way. 12 teams blew the draft in 2017. There is an element of luck. I mean, Brooklyn has Okafor and Russell, two top 3 draft picks. How are they doing?

That’s actually nuts. Both Russell and Okafor had decent starts to their NBA careers, Russell has actually been quite good all this time. Okafor has turned out to be hopeless though, his offensive game can be sweet but you cannot get away with being that bad and lazy defensively.

 

[Sarni]

I think it’s easy to list out players that panned out or didn’t pan out and forget about the environments they’re put into, coaching, veterans around them, opportunities to play.

Most guys in the draft have a lot of development to do, and some guys just don’t have the same motor once they start cashing NBA checks and it’s really hard get all that stuff right. That’s the job of the GM though, and that’s why Sacramento and Orlando keep going through GM’s.

What would Mitchell be had he been drafted by Sacramento? With a much worse situation. Yes there is “luck” in the NBA draft, but there is also a lot too building a culture, and internal systems that can help make guys successful. I think Portland has been somewhat average at this. Where as Orlando and Sac Town have really sucked at it.

That’s a good point. There are some cases where players can go into bad environment and still do well and maybe transform that team somewhat but usually to get the best out of those kids you need to put them in the right culture. What Mitchell has at Utah is beyond perfect for a young player with potential like him. As you say at Sacramento he would be running around with Fox and not much else, it could be great as they are both dynamic players but it could have also ended up with them getting into each other’s way.

Perfect fit would have been Booker at Philadelphia though. Put him in their current team and you have a contender maybe even within 2 years.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Bump!

The opening post is EXACTLY why Neil needs to be fired.

 

[BonesJones]

Bump!

The opening post is EXACTLY why Neil needs to be fired.

How many threads are you gonna bump dude? Just cluttering up the main page with a bunch of duplicated threads from different time periods.

 

[Propagandist]

Bump!

The opening post is EXACTLY why Neil needs to be fired.

I appreciate this. Fuck that Olshey guy. What's very true is the what-could-have-beens. This could have been worse?!?

 

[Propagandist]

How many threads are you gonna bump dude? Just cluttering up the main page with a bunch of duplicated threads from different time periods.

Each one is a little different. Lol.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

How many threads are you gonna bump dude? Just cluttering up the main page with a bunch of duplicated threads from different time periods.

As many as it takes, cowboy.

 

[BonesJones]

As many as it takes, cowboy.

As if bumping old threads has power...