SF Solution: Trevor Ariza?

[Wheels]

No kidding, in a split second. I'd give them Webster and Outlaw for Ariza.

make it happen KP! then we can draft a younger project SF or something.. or sign a vet who wont expect minutes.. someone at the minimum. Sprewell needs to feed his family..

 

[Da_O]

I'll try to bump this thread when Varejao opts out and his agent says how much he wants. Then, we'll bump it again when we see what he actually gets. He was unhappy when he signed his current contract because he thought he was getting screwed, and he's more established now, than he was then, so I don't see him opting out and taking less money, do you? I use the 7 million figure because it's slightly more than what he's making now and still within the range of what we can offer him, which is way too much.

The Laker fans who have contributed to this thread (thank you by the way), all seem to think he is a much better offensive player than you are giving him credit for. If we're looking for statistical evidence to forecast his ccareer, then we should do the same for Batum. His numbers we not off the charts either. In fact, Ariza's rookie numbers are as good if not better than Batum's.

I'm really surprised that he doesn't pass the eye ball test to more Blazer fans. I know most people overrate their own players, but I wouldn't think it would be this bad.

And you don't think Lakers fans overrate their player? Remember, Bynum's the second coming. Give me a break. I'm looking at this objectively. Ariza only averages 8.9 points per game on more minutes than Batum, and his ability to create is limited. Not the type of player we need.

You should also take into account how inflatable Ariza's offensive stats look in a Tex Winter offense.

I think it is you who is WAY overrating Ariza's abilities. He has shown in 5 years that he's probably never going to be better than an NBA journeymen. He is an RFA so it is even unlikely that we even could get him. But if he wanted to test the market, with Free Agency being so shallow, I'm sure Ariza could get around 5 to 7 million. So as much as you clamor on me about Varejao, I could say the same about Ariza. I've stated many times I'd much rather target either Hedo, Artest, Miller, or Bass before Varejao and Ariza.

 

[DaRizzle]

You are hallucinating.

Buss is ALREADY going to pay.

What you mean when you say "Buss will pay" (to keep both Odom and Ariza) is that "Buss will pay even more and become one of the biggest luxury tax teams".

That isn't going to happen.

The monster extension to Bynum has sealed the fate of the Laker forward rotation. Unless both Odom and Ariza agree to split $10mil between them, one is gone.

Close...probably 12-13mil

Signing both would make the Lakers only the 3rd highest Salary team (NY, DAL) iirc...Buss has paid before...why wouldnt he now when hes getting older and wants to see his pride and joy succeed?

 

[Tince]

And you don't think Lakers fans overrate their player? Remember, Bynum's the second coming. Give me a break. I'm looking at this objectively. Ariza only averages 8.9 points per game on more minutes than Batum, and his ability to create is limited. Not the type of player we need.

You should also take into account how inflatable Ariza's offensive stats look in a Tex Winter offense.

I think it is you who is WAY overrating Ariza's abilities. He has shown in 5 years that he's probably never going to be better than an NBA journeymen. He is an RFA so it is even unlikely that we even could get him. But if he wanted to test the market, with Free Agency being so shallow, I'm sure Ariza could get around 5 to 7 million. So as much as you clamor on me about Varejao, I could say the same about Ariza. I've stated many times I'd much rather target either Hedo, Artest, Miller, or Bass before Varejao and Ariza.

Your points contradict themselves. On one hand you're saying he's no better than a journeyman, but then you go fof and say it's unlikely we could get him. Well, we could over him 7 mill a year, that's an awful lot for a guy with no potential of being better than a journeyman and having limited offensive game.

The Laker fans opinion on Ariza seem to be closer to the ones being said by Mike Green, Mark Jack, Jeff Vand Gundy, Hubie Brown, etc. I'm looking forward to hearing back from Eric Musselman to see if he thinks Batum and Ariza are similar talents, and Batum has more potential.

The only reason I'm attacking your Varejao and Bass ideas because they would not be of the same value as Ariza would be to us. Miller or Turk, I'd be fine with both for Ariza type money.

 

[DaRizzle]

Remember, Bynum's the second coming

Oh but Oden is because well...he plays for POR

 

[Da_O]

Your points contradict themselves. On one hand you're saying he's no better than a journeyman, but then you go fof and say it's unlikely we could get him. Well, we could over him 7 mill a year, that's an awful lot for a guy with no potential of being better than a journeyman and having limited offensive game.

The Laker fans opinion on Ariza seem to be closer to the ones being said by Mike Green, Mark Jack, Jeff Vand Gundy, Hubie Brown, etc. I'm looking forward to hearing back from Eric Musselman to see if he thinks Batum and Ariza are similar talents, and Batum has more potential.

The only reason I'm attacking your Varejao and Bass ideas because they would not be of the same value as Ariza would be to us. Miller or Turk, I'd be fine with both for Ariza type money.

How are those contradicting statements? In five years he's shown that he'll be nothing more than a journeymen, this is just my opinion this has no correlation on whether or not I think we could get him. I then only state the likelihood of getting him being pretty nil, this statement doesn't change the fact that I still think he's a journeymen.

Namedropping doesn't help you when you don't post quotes of them actually saying that Ariza is good at creating his own shot. I've heard many of them say he's great in transition and good at finishing around the rim but never a good player at getting off his own shot.

they would not be of the same value

I disagree, I think backup PF is a much more pressing need than a SF that brings redundant traits to our squad.

 

[Da_O]

Oh but Oden is because well...he plays for POR

Then you agree with me that fans of their teams overrated their player. So then pretty much all of the opinion of Ariza by Laker fans are null and void. Thanks for clearing that up.

 

[DaRizzle]

No...I didnt say that...you did

I was just mentioning POR fans

 

[Tince]

How are those contradicting statements? In five years he's shown that he'll be nothing more than a journeymen, this is just my opinion this has no correlation on whether or not I think we could get him. I then only state the likelihood of getting him being pretty nil, this statement doesn't change the fact that I still think he's a journeymen.

Namedropping doesn't help you when you don't post quotes of them actually saying that Ariza is good at creating his own shot. I've heard many of them say he's great in transition and good at finishing around the rim but never a good player at getting off his own shot.

they would not be of the same value

I disagree, I think backup PF is a much more pressing need than a SF that brings redundant traits to our squad.

How many journeymen with limited offense game get 7 million a year (that is what we can offer him). By you saying we probably can't get him from the Lakers, I'm assuming you think they would match as much as we could offer. Where am I wrong?

 

[Da_O]

How many journeymen with limited offense game get 7 million a year (that is what we can offer him). By you saying we probably can't get him from the Lakers, I'm assuming you think they would match as much as we could offer. Where am I wrong?

7 million a year? That's way too much, I'm sure LA would match any offer put on the table. No way he gets 7 million though and our GM should be shot for even considering offering that much money for a limited journeymen.

 

[Tince]

7 million a year? That's way too much, I'm sure LA would match any offer put on the table. No way he gets 7 million though and our GM should be shot for even considering offering that much money for a limited journeymen.

Based of PER, he's the 6th best SF in the league. You'd think with similar stats, Batum would be right by him, right?

Check if out yourself

I expect him to get near 6 a year this off season. Which would be a ton for the type of player you a describing. We'll see what the professionals think of his talent.

How you can think Varejao is worth that money buth Ariza isn't, is beyond me.

 

[Da_O]

Based of PER, he's the 6th best SF in the league. You'd think with similar stats, Batum would be right by him, right?

Check if out yourself

I expect him to get near 6 a year this off season. Which would be a ton for the type of player you a describing. We'll see what the professionals think of his talent.

How you can think Varejao is worth that money buth Ariza isn't, is beyond me.

I think Varejao is worth that money for us because he brings us something of need to this team. Ariza really doesn't bring anything to the table for us. Like I said Varejao is more like the last possible option but you continue to bring him up.

I never said Batum was better than him just that he has most of the same qualities as Ariza and is younger. PER isn't synonymous with "best" player. I believe both Artest and Hedo are better players than Ariza but according to PER they're not. PER is just an efficiency tool.

Oh btw those are playoff PER numbers,

 

[Tince]

I think Varejao is worth that money for us because he brings us something of need to this team. Ariza really doesn't bring anything to the table for us. Like I said Varejao is more like the last possible option but you continue to bring him up.

I never said Batum was better than him just that he has most of the same qualities as Ariza and is younger. PER isn't synonymous with "best" player. I believe both Artest and Hedo are better players than Ariza but according to PER they're not. PER is just an efficiency tool.

Oh btw those are playoff PER numbers,

Hey, you were the one who pointed out that Ariza only score 9ppg in more minutes than Batum. I thought you would want a better, all encompassing stat to reflect their contributions of late, but I understand it doesn't help your case.

The regular season PER numbers puts Ariza around the top half of SF's, while Batum is near 30. Again, that is a major difference.

You'd rather spend 7 million on a guy who's PER was 46th among PF's to backup LMA (who's PER is 9th) instead of Ariza, who is 15 spots ahead of Batum. A guy who has a PER outside of the top 30 tells me we are hurting in that position. I'm more worried about filling our problems in the starting lineup, than 12 minutes a game to backup LMA.

 

[Da_O]

Hey, you were the one who pointed out that Ariza only score 9ppg in more minutes than Batum. I thought you would want a better, all encompassing stat to reflect their contributions of late, but I understand it doesn't help your case.

The regular season PER numbers puts Ariza around the top half of SF's, while Batum is near 30. Again, that is a major difference.

You'd rather spend 7 million on a guy who's PER was 46th among PF's to backup LMA (who's PER is 9th) instead of Ariza, who is 15 spots ahead of Batum. A guy who has a PER outside of the top 30 tells me we are hurting in that position. I'm more worried about filling our problems in the starting lineup, than 12 minutes a game to backup LMA.

The regular season PER numbers puts Ariza around the top half of SF's,

It puts Outlaw there too.

PER doesn't validate a thing. I don't really like PER because it ignores defense and because it doesn't really tell us anything new (someone eyeballing the game could tell us who the top 5 players in the league), but validity is not a dichotomous decision (yes/no). It is a matter of degree, and yes PER can tell us certain things about offensive performance. It has some validity as a measure of offensive performance (and ergo total performance because offense is half of the game). Do you really think Carl Landry was like the 16th best player last year?

Varejao could easily get 15-18 minutes a game. He could take Outlaw's minutes and we could move him for a SF. I'm ignoring your Varejao stance from now on, I've already expressed that isn't my first option, I'd rather us go other routes such as drafting a PF through the draft or getting other already named free agents. Varejao would only be taken if everything else just fell through.

 

[DaRizzle]

PER doesn't validate a thing. I don't really like PER because it ignores defense

Totally agree, that why PER doesnt show how good Ariza really is

Ariza is a very good defender for a PG through SF...he first got a chance to get PT for the Lakers when Luke had an injury last year, he kept getting minutes for his stellar defense and his desire to get offensive rebounds

 

[Tince]

The regular season PER numbers puts Ariza around the top half of SF's,

It puts Outlaw there too.

PER doesn't validate a thing. I don't really like PER because it ignores defense and because it doesn't really tell us anything new (someone eyeballing the game could tell us who the top 5 players in the league), but validity is not a dichotomous decision (yes/no). It is a matter of degree, and yes PER can tell us certain things about offensive performance. It has some validity as a measure of offensive performance (and ergo total performance because offense is half of the game). Do you really think Carl Landry was like the 16th best player last year?

Varejao could easily get 15-18 minutes a game. He could take Outlaw's minutes and we could move him for a SF. I'm ignoring your Varejao stance from now on, I've already expressed that isn't my first option, I'd rather us go other routes such as drafting a PF through the draft or getting other already named free agents. Varejao would only be taken if everything else just fell through.

1) Outlaw is a much better PF than SF, so you can't really rank him among SF's

2) I agree PER tells us what we already know: Ariza is way better than Batum.

3) I don't think Landry is the 16th best PF (if thats what you meant by "player"), but like Ariza, I feel he is very underrated too.

I still haven't seen you breakdown the minutes between LMA, Oden, Joel, and AV. I'd love to see how you get him 18 minutes. Please do that for me....

 

[Da_O]

1) Outlaw is a much better PF than SF, so you can't really rank him among SF's

2) I agree PER tells us what we already know: Ariza is way better than Batum.

3) I don't think Landry is the 16th best PF (if thats what you meant by "player"), but like Ariza, I feel he is very underrated too.

I still haven't seen you breakdown the minutes between LMA, Oden, Joel, and AV. I'd love to see how you get him 18 minutes. Please do that for me....

Outlaw is a much better PF than SF, so you can't really rank him among SF's

According to 82games.com Outlaw played the majority of his minutes at SF and he is listed as such.

I don't think Landry is the 16th best PF (if thats what you meant by "player"), but like Ariza, I feel he is very underrated too.

Last year Landry ranked about 16th in overall PER last year. Do you think he's the 16th best player?

I'd love to see how you get him 18 minutes. Please do that for me....

Depends on the night. Sometimes both Oden and Joel are going to be in foul trouble, maybe Aldridge too.

There is 96 minutes to go around between the PF and C positions.

Aldridge will get his usually 37 minutes that leave 59 minutes.

I'm sure Oden will get no more then around 28 to 32 minutes a game and there could always be injuries and fouls limiting him. That's about 37 minutes left for Varejao and Przybilla to split. That's about 18 minutes a piece for them. Not that hard.

I love how you cherrypick parts of my argument and ignore my basic stance. Keep setting up strawman after strawman don't ya?

 

[Da_O]

Everyone else who actually is a rational poster realizes that PER is a composite stat and all composite stats are destined for failure in basketball for the reasons that:
--Not all minutes are created equally in basketball. Stats generated in garbage time are completely meaningless, stats generated at the start of the 2nd quarter in your average NBA game aren't much better.
--Due to the team nature and different roles each player will take on a team, not all assists are created equally, not all points are created equally and not all rebounds are created equally
--For a composite stat it ignores half the game, which is an egregious failure

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Fuck Ariza. It's a contract year, btw.

He could pull a Bynum and totally revert to non-factor after he gets his money.

 

[Tince]

According to 82games.com Outlaw played the majority of his minutes at SF and he is listed as such.

Last year Landry ranked about 16th in overall PER last year. Do you think he's the 16th best player?

Depends on the night. Sometimes both Oden and Joel are going to be in foul trouble, maybe Aldridge too.

There is 96 minutes to go around between the PF and C positions.

Aldridge will get his usually 37 minutes that leave 59 minutes.

I'm sure Oden will get no more then around 28 to 32 minutes a game and there could always be injuries and fouls limiting him. That's about 37 minutes left for Varejao and Przybilla to split. That's about 18 minutes a piece for them. Not that hard.

I love how you cherrypick parts of my argument and ignore my basic stance. Keep setting up strawman after strawman don't ya?

Kinda of like me listing 9 great reasons to add Ariza and you picking apart one?

Check out that link about Outlaw again, and decide for yourself which position he is more effective playing. Check out his PER at the SF position. Nowhere near Ariza.

Man, I'd hate to see Joel only play 18 minutes a game, but I guess that's what you'd have to do under your scenario.

 

[Tince]

Everyone else who actually is a rational poster realizes that PER is a composite stat and all composite stats are destined for failure in basketball for the reasons that:
--Not all minutes are created equally in basketball. Stats generated in garbage time are completely meaningless, stats generated at the start of the 2nd quarter in your average NBA game aren't much better.
--Due to the team nature and different roles each player will take on a team, not all assists are created equally, not all points are created equally and not all rebounds are created equally
--For a composite stat it ignores half the game, which is an egregious failure

Are you implying you are a rational poster, or simply, that I'm an irrational poster?

It's cool, it won't hurt my feelings. We clearly see basketball two different ways, and I'm comfortable with that.

I'm just glad we both love the Blazers

 

[Tince]

Fuck Ariza. It's a contract year, btw.

He could pull a Bynum and totally revert to non-factor after he gets his money.

Or he could pull a Turkoglu and totally break out after signing with a new team. I guess only time will tell...

 

[Da_O]

Kinda of like me listing 9 great reasons to add Ariza and you picking apart one?

Check out that link about Outlaw again, and decide for yourself which position he is more effective playing. Check out his PER at the SF position. Nowhere near Ariza.

Man, I'd hate to see Joel only play 18 minutes a game, but I guess that's what you'd have to do under your scenario.

I'm taking your whole stance on Ariza apart not just 1 reason. You continually ignore parts of my argument, just like you just ignored what I said about Carl Landry. I found it Landry was the 19th best player according to PER last year(if you take out the top two). http://www.basketball-reference.com...&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=per Do you think Landry is the 19th best player?

Nowhere near!? They're only separated by 2.8 PER. PER is not synonymous with best player it's nothing more than a measurement for efficiency.

 

[Wheels]

nick van exel?

think we traded Dale Davis for him. I might be wrong though.

 

[Tince]

think we traded Dale Davis for him. I might be wrong though.

That would have been a power house trade a few years prior to it happening.

 

[DaRizzle]

This thread should be bumped in a year...either by Tince or Da O....we shall see who. I have my money on Tince

 

[Tince]

I'm taking your whole stance on Ariza apart not just 1 reason. You continually ignore parts of my argument, just like you just ignored what I said about Carl Landry. I found it Landry was the 19th best player according to PER last year(if you take out the top two). http://www.basketball-reference.com...&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=per Do you think Landry is the 19th best player?

Nowhere near!? They're only separated by 2.8 PER. PER is not synonymous with best player it's nothing more than a measurement for efficiency.

No I do not. I do think the vast majority of that list is closer to accurate. I think Ariza's PER undervalues him more than overvalues him. I suppose we could find any one stat, and find someone who is an outliar.

Again, I'll stick by everything I've seen with my own two eyes. Ariza is better than Batum, I think he'll have a better career than Batum, and I think he would really really help us next year and in the future. I've worked for a basketball scouting service, so this isn't my first rodeo or anything. I've seen a lot of players play, and he has that similar "it" factor that Shane Battier has.

 

[Tince]

This thread should be bumped in a year...either by Tince or Da O....we shall see who. I have my money on Tince

Normally, I don't like Laker fans taking my side.

They should make a function that allows us to set a time to bump a thread in the future, that would be sweet.

I think it will take people more than a year to realize Ariza's true value. You're going to hear the "potential" argument with Batum for at least 3 years. And I think he does have more potential than Ariza, but I doubt he'll end up being a better player.

 

[LJ Ginger]

I'm saying it now, Martell and Batum's ceiling are both higher than Ariza's. That being said, Ariza played well in the playoffs!

 

[Da_O]

No I do not. I do think the vast majority of that list is closer to accurate. I think Ariza's PER undervalues him more than overvalues him. I suppose we could find any one stat, and find someone who is an outliar.

Again, I'll stick by everything I've seen with my own two eyes. Ariza is better than Batum, I think he'll have a better career than Batum, and I think he would really really help us next year and in the future. I've worked for a basketball scouting service, so this isn't my first rodeo or anything. I've seen a lot of players play, and he has that similar "it" factor that Shane Battier has.

Again, I'm going to have to disagree with you. I have a hard time believing Batum wont become better than an NBA journeymen who's career high ppg is 8.9. I already think Batum's defense is nearly on par with Ariza's, Batum just gambles less.

We have other pressing needs than wasting cap space(that we wont have in a long time) to bring in another SF that can't create and gives us a redundant skill set.