SF Solution: Trevor Ariza?

[VanillaGorilla]

Based of PER, he's the 6th best SF in the league. You'd think with similar stats, Batum would be right by him, right?

Check if out yourself

I expect him to get near 6 a year this off season. Which would be a ton for the type of player you a describing. We'll see what the professionals think of his talent.

How you can think Varejao is worth that money buth Ariza isn't, is beyond me.

You should probably clarify that thats in the playoffs. And that in the regular season he is 16th and our back-up (Outlaw) is barely lower.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Kinda of like me listing 9 great reasons to add Ariza and you picking apart one?

Check out that link about Outlaw again, and decide for yourself which position he is more effective playing. Check out his PER at the SF position. Nowhere near Ariza.

Man, I'd hate to see Joel only play 18 minutes a game, but I guess that's what you'd have to do under your scenario.

Net 48-Minute Production by Position: Ariza = -5.6, Outlaw = -5.7

Not much of a difference if you ask me. Ariza's opponent PER at the SF position is 25.1 while Outlaws is 19.3

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Kinda of like me listing 9 great reasons to add Ariza and you picking apart one?

Check out that link about Outlaw again, and decide for yourself which position he is more effective playing. Check out his PER at the SF position. Nowhere near Ariza.

Man, I'd hate to see Joel only play 18 minutes a game, but I guess that's what you'd have to do under your scenario.

Joel only played 23 minutes a game last year and thats with Oden being in perpetual foul trouble and being injured, so it is not that much of a difference.

 

[Tince]

Joel only played 23 minutes a game last year and thats with Oden being in perpetual foul trouble and being injured, so it is not that much of a difference.

I'd prefer to have Joel play those minutes over AV and save the cap space. He doesn't seem worth 7 million to me.

 

[Tince]

You should probably clarify that thats in the playoffs. And that in the regular season he is 16th and our back-up (Outlaw) is barely lower.

It was clarified a few posts down, but thank you for clarifying it again.

Are we saying since Outlaw's PER is way better than Batum, that he is a better fit for us? That's a little dicey to me.

Again, I just go off the eyeball test, and Ariza is a difference maker.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

It was clarified a few posts down, but thank you for clarifying it again.

Are we saying since Outlaw's PER is way better than Batum, that he is a better fit for us? That's a little dicey to me.

Again, I just go off the eyeball test, and Ariza is a difference maker.

Yeah I saw that after I posted, my bad.

I don't like PER much, and I, too, use the eyeball test and I say Batum is a better fit than Outlaw, and he will be better than Ariza soon, because to me he is not far behind him. It really doesn't seem like anything you say or anything Da O says will change either of your opinions, or mine for that matter, so I'm gonna propose that we agree to disagree.

 

[Da_O]

It was clarified a few posts down, but thank you for clarifying it again.

Are we saying since Outlaw's PER is way better than Batum, that he is a better fit for us? That's a little dicey to me.

Again, I just go off the eyeball test, and Ariza is a difference maker.

Well when you use objective evidence it's clear that he's not. Use your eyes and brain, and use objective evidence. That's the best way. If the two converge, then you probably got something. If not, then rethink your position.

Using only your eyes and brain opens you up to a host of cognitive and logical fallacies.

 

[Tince]

Well when you use objective evidence it's clear that he's not. Use your eyes and brain, and use objective evidence. That's the best way. If the two converge, then you probably got something. If not, then rethink your position.

Using only your eyes and brain opens you up to a host of cognitive and logical fallacies.

Thanks for the advice.

I'll be sure to give the scouting service I work for their money back since a guy on a message board doesn't think I know what I'm talking about.

 

[Da_O]

Thanks for the advice.

I'll be sure to give the scouting service I work for their money back since a guy on a message board doesn't think I know what I'm talking about.

First off, claiming to be on a scouting service doesn't get you anywhere, I have very little reason to take you more seriously or even believe you. Just because you work for a scouting service doesn't make me think your opinion is higher than anyone else here. If you don't like my opinion don't respond it's that simple.

The fact (and yes, it is a scientific fact) is that the human mind is prone to cognitive biases that affect our judgment. Scouts are no exception to tis, that's why the draft is always hit or miss.

 

[Tince]

I was joking buddy. I didn't realize until now that our exchange got to the point where there was some bitterness.

I'm sorry you don't believe that I working for a scouting company, but it's true. I guess I'm used to using the statistics, scouting techniques, and video clips that our company uses, but I'm sure there is a flaw in what we do. I'm sure my mind is prone to cognitive biases if you say all humans (yourself included), and I'm not saying it's impossible I'm wrong. Typically I overrate current Blazers and underrate Lakers (because I hate them).

I guess only time will tell who ends up being the better player. If we don't get Ariza and keep Batum, I'll be rooting hard for you to be 100% correct.

 

[Da_O]

I was joking buddy. I didn't realize until now that our exchange got to the point where there was some bitterness.

I'm sorry you don't believe that I working for a scouting company, but it's true. I guess I'm used to using the statistics, scouting techniques, and video clips that our company uses, but I'm sure there is a flaw in what we do. I'm sure my mind is prone to cognitive biases if you say all humans (yourself included), and I'm not saying it's impossible I'm wrong. Typically I overrate current Blazers and underrate Lakers (because I hate them).

I guess only time will tell who ends up being the better player. If we don't get Ariza and keep Batum, I'll be rooting hard for you to be 100% correct.

I was joking buddy. I didn't realize until now that our exchange got to the point where there was some bitterness.

I have no malice towards you at all. I really don't think anything of you.

I guess I'm used to using the statistics,

What stats are you using because most of the stats across the board show Ariza to be a mediocre player. You do know 15 PER is the average?

I'm sure my mind is prone to cognitive biases

You're sure? I hope I don't detect sarcasm because it's a universal fact that humans are prone to cognitive biases. I didn't say I was excluded from cognitive biases, but you only using the eyeball test is a flawed way at looking at players. Use both your eyes and objective evidence. Apparently you haven't been doing that.

Oh btw my name is John Hollinger glad to meet you.

 

[Tince]

I have no malice towards you at all. I really don't think anything of you.

What stats are you using because most of the stats across the board show Ariza to be a mediocre player. You do know 15 PER is the average?

You're sure? I hope I don't detect sarcasm but because it's a universal fact that humans are prone to cognitive biases. I didn't say I was excluded from cognitive biases, but you only using the eyeball test is a flawed way at looking at players. Use both your eyes and objective evidence. Apparently you haven't been doing that.

Oh btw my name is John Hollinger glad to meet you.

Lol, no I wasn't being sarcastic, and yes I know 15 is average.

I guess I didn't articulate my point very well because you are taking my eyeball test comment the wrong way.

Anyway, nice to meet you Mr Hollinger.

Go Blazers!

 

[Da_O]

Lol, no I wasn't being sarcastic, and yes I know 15 is average.

I guess I didn't articulate my point very well because you are taking my eyeball test comment the wrong way.

Anyway, nice to meet you Mr Hollinger.

Go Blazers!

You articulated it fine, and I'm not taking it the wrong way, you said you only use the eyeball test to evaluate players, now I know your logic for wanting Ariza is flawed. You have what they call in the biz -Confirmation Bias- which is the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. This is a clear cut case. Next time try using something called triangulation, it will help you more when scouting players from now on.

But yes Go Blazers!

 

[Tince]

You articulated it fine, and I'm not taking it the wrong way, you said you only use the eyeball test to evaluate players, now I know your logic for wanting Ariza is flawed. You have what they call in the biz -Confirmation Bias- which is the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. This is a clear cut case. Next time try using something called triangulation, it will help you more when scouting players from now on.

But yes Go Blazers!

If I said "I only use the eyeball test to evaluate players" then I was lying. I apologize for saying that about Ariza when I was trying to get away from the Outlaw PER discussion.

I do appreciate the job tips. I'm sure my boss will be trilled to know I've grown as an employee over the weekend.

Is there a criteria you would be willing to set evaluate who ends up being better between Ariza and Batum? Maybe something we can look at a year from now? Obviously to know for sure, we'll have to wait until all is said and done. Is a year not enough time because Ariza has more experience? I'm open to your ideas.

 

[Da_O]

If I said "I only use the eyeball test to evaluate players" then I was lying. I apologize for saying that about Ariza when I was trying to get away from the Outlaw PER discussion.

I do appreciate the job tips. I'm sure my boss will be trilled to know I've grown as an employee over the weekend.

Is there a criteria you would be willing to set evaluate who ends up being better between Ariza and Batum? Maybe something we can look at a year from now? Obviously to know for sure, we'll have to wait until all is said and done. Is a year not enough time because Ariza has more experience? I'm open to your ideas.

Okay, apparently you haven't been listening. My whole argument was not whether Batum will be better than Ariza. My argument was is it worth it to use cap space to bring in Ariza. And my answer was an emphatic, No. Do I believe Batum can be a better player? Of course. I already think he's not really that far behind him. I've been trying to say I'd WAY rather go after other free agents. I think players like Miller, Hedo, or even Artest would be better options.

I'll bite, I'll say in two years Batum will be better. I don't know how to quantify it because any stat can be flawed, but we'll use a combination of stats and our own judgment and make our own cases for why we think each other is better, and we'll let others choose. In two years we'll meet back. That's if I even remember or we're both even here.

Okay, take care now, bye bye then.

 

[Tince]

Okay, apparently you haven't been listening. My whole argument was not whether Batum will be better than Ariza. My argument was is it worth it to use cap space to bring in Ariza. And my answer was an emphatic, No. Do I believe Batum can be a better player? Of course. I already think he's not really that far behind him. I've been trying to say I'd WAY rather go after other free agents. I think players like Miller, Hedo, or even Artest would be better options.

I'll bite, I'll say in two years Batum will be better. I don't know how to quantify it because any stat can be flawed, but we'll use a combination of stats and our own judgment and make our own cases for why we think each other is better, and we'll let others choose. In two years we'll meet back. That's if I even remember or we're both even here.

Okay, take care now, bye bye then.

Sounds good to me....

 

[Blaze01]

screw Ariza...

I have zero interest whatsoever in seeing POR sign that guy....

Same goes for Odom....a more talented version of Outlaw (same IQ though)....

 

[Storyteller2]

Close...probably 12-13mil

Signing both would make the Lakers only the 3rd highest Salary team (NY, DAL) iirc...Buss has paid before...why wouldnt he now when hes getting older and wants to see his pride and joy succeed?

Good question. The answer lies in the numbers.

Buss' history is to pay and still make a hefty profit. Looking at the last decade or so, he's been willing to pay luxury tax but unwilling to make a profit of less than $20 million a year.

2007-08 saw him pay out $78 million for player salaries ($72.9 to players and $5.1 in tax), while turning a $47.9 million profit.

For 2008-09, he'll pay out about $85.3 million for player salaries ($78.2 to players and $7.1 in tax). He should still make nearly $40 million in profit, even with a slight drop in revenue.

But you're suggesting that he'll re-sign both Ariza and Odom, pay out about $117.0 million for player salaries ($93.5 million to players and $23.5 in tax) and see his profit go down to single digits? Uh-uh. I don't buy it for one minute. Not when he can 'get away' with signing one of them and save himself $12-16 million in salary and tax.

 

[Storyteller2]

I like Ariza, but he's a RFA

FYI, Minstrel, Ariza will be an Unrestricted Free Agent this summer.

 

[Minstrel]

FYI, Minstrel, Ariza will be an Unrestricted Free Agent this summer.

Ah, okay, thanks. In past free agent threads, people were saying Ariza was restricted, I thought.

Unfortunately, I guess it doesn't make a difference. LA can match any offered deal using Bird rights and Ariza is unlikely to want to go to another team for the same money. He went to UCLA and supposedly likes LA and the Lakers are a top team.

So it basically still comes down to whether the Lakers choose to match an offer or not.

 

[Tince]

Some more uninformed idiots who think Ariza would be a great fit in Portland

And this article mentions Ariza when comparing similarities to the Lakers and Blazers:

Trevor Ariza is everything that we hoped Travis Outlaw could be. He uses his size and his length to bother the other team while still scoring and picking his spots, even if he is a SOB. What’s intriguing is the idea of the head case small forward kept in line by the great shooting guard. That part of the formula can get fulfilled this summer if we want it to happen.

Link

 

[PapaG]

Trevor Ariza is everything that we hoped Travis Outlaw could be. He uses his size and his length to bother the other team while still scoring and picking his spots, even if he is a SOB.

Really? A guy who scores 8 ppg and shoots 31% from 3pt is "everything we hoped Travis Outlaw could be"? Plus, Ariza has not shown the ability to initiate his own offense. I realize that part of that is because of who he plays with, but he didn't really show that ability in New York. He's a great energy guy, but not "everything we hoped Travis Outlaw could be". First Hedo, then Ariza, who is the next role player that the Blazers "need" to overpay?

 

[Wheels]

Really? A guy who scores 8 ppg and shoots 31% from 3pt is "everything we hoped Travis Outlaw could be"? Plus, Ariza has not shown the ability to initiate his own offense. I realize that part of that is because of who he plays with, but he didn't really show that ability in New York. He's a great energy guy, but not "everything we hoped Travis Outlaw could be".

so like a good backup? Is that what you are thinking on Trevor? Energy guy, defense etc?

 

[PapaG]

so like a good backup? Is that what you are thinking on Trevor? Energy guy, defense etc?

Pretty much. He shot lights out from 3pt in the playoffs, but he's really a career 30% shooter who runs the break well and has moments of playing good defense. He's a solid role player. Maybe that's what this team needs, but maybe Batum is already that player.

 

[RoyToy]

Ariza brings things to the court that I wish Outlaw did(overall basketball IQ, defense,) but he isn't what I hoped Outlaw would be.

I'd still take him over Outlaw, but the Blazers can do better, and that will be Batum.

 

[Wheels]

Pretty much. He shot lights out from 3pt in the playoffs, but he's really a career 30% shooter who runs the break well and has moments of playing good defense. He's a solid role player. Maybe that's what this team needs, but maybe Batum is already that player.

agree he is.. only problem is.. he's our starter. We will need an upgrade right now. not saying you feel differently. just talking lol

 

[oldmangrouch]

Really? A guy who scores 8 ppg and shoots 31% from 3pt is "everything we hoped Travis Outlaw could be"? Plus, Ariza has not shown the ability to initiate his own offense. I realize that part of that is because of who he plays with, but he didn't really show that ability in New York. He's a great energy guy, but not "everything we hoped Travis Outlaw could be". First Hedo, then Ariza, who is the next role player that the Blazers "need" to overpay?

The key word in all of this is "overpay".

If Hedo and Ariza take deals that reflect their true value, there is no reason for their current teams to let them go! If they are signed as FAs, it will be because some team is willing to pay *more* than their services are worth.