OT Taiwan

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oldfisherman said:
If China attacked, or just blockaded, Taiwan, the result would be a global economic crisis.

Taiwan manufactures 70% of the worlds microchips. And 90% of the most advanced chips. Without chips, the world would shut down.

Cuba's main attraction would be tourism.
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Cigars?
 
Everything Beagle said:
This is as good a place as any to say I know someone in defense subcontracting and they’ve been given a couple of Unlimited Budget projects that have a drop dead delivery date in October.
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Too many signs the USA is slowly moving/being pushed towards a very bad place. And will stop there.
 
oldfisherman said:
My post here is pure theory and speculation.

It is believed by many US strategy planners, China's and Russia's long range plan to defeat the USA is to get us spread out and involved in 3 or more conflics at one time.

Ukraine and Gaza make two. Is Taiwan and Korea 3 and 4? What about Iran?
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We have some capable allies to take on, if needed, China & Russia.
 
If China decides to start rising up, it might be time to dust off the cool shit we had flying around Area 51.
 
Taiwan is not just our ally in the region. We have trade partners and military partners throughout the pacific. if we don’t protect Taiwan and our partners in Asia then you’ll see much more expansionism in the pacific. China is not threatening from a position of strength. They have border skirmishes now with India which has as large an army and nukes. I’m not sure how Israel or Ukraine are anymore in our “sphere” of influence. Taiwan is sharing technology with the US. Nobody likes war anymore than anyone likes being invaded. Cuba had a revolution by its own people That’s a far stretch from being invaded by your neighbor
 
ehizzy3 said:
I think China is invading in the next few months
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On the surface, it does look like China could invade Taiwan. And it may have been their plan.. But plans change.

The short answer to why China probably will not invade Taiwan is.. The suprising results of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There are two parts to this reasoning.

1) China's military model and equipment are copies of, or very similiar to Russia's. Russia's invasion plan was to take Ukraine in 3 days. It failed due to a poor military model, and sub-par equipment.

2) The sanctions placed on Russia have hurt them. China could not survive without world trade. Both to export goods to fund thier economy, and inport the goods they need, such as food.

If China invades Taiwan, the entire global economy eould collapse. But China would suffer the most under sanctions. In short, China would be commiting suicide. They now know this, and their war games are a bluff.
 
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oldfisherman said:
On the surface, it does look like China could invade Taiwan. And it may have been their plan.. But plans change.

The short answer to why China probably will not invade Taiwan is.. The suprising results of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There are two parts to this reasoning.

1) China's military model and equipment are copies of, or very similiar to Russia's. Russia's invasion plan was to take Ukraine in 3 days. It failed due to a poor military model, and sub-par equipment.

2) The sanctions placed on Russia have hurt them. China could not survive without world trade. Both to export goods to fund thier economy, and inport the goods they need, such as food.

If China invades Taiwan, the entire global economy eould collapse. But China would suffer the most under sanctions. In short, China would be commiting suicide. They now know this, and their war games are a bluff.
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Agreed.
 
Today, China seized a Taiwanese commercial fish boat, near a Taiwanese island. Boat and crew taken to China on a faulty charge.

Taiwan sent 2 coast guard ships to help. China sent 6 more ships and many aircraft.

No shots fired, but China is trying to start wars all over the China sea.
 
oldfisherman said:
Today, China seized a Taiwanese commercial fish boat, near a Taiwanese island. Boat and crew taken to China on a faulty charge.

Taiwan sent 2 coast guard ships to help. China sent 6 more ships and many aircraft.

No shots fired, but China is trying to start wars all over the China sea.
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Has been going on for decades.

In 1988, China sunk three Vietnamese ships.

In 1996, shots actually were fired between Chinese and Philippine gunboats.

In 2010, a Chinese boat rammed two Japanese boats.

Yes, this is an issue. Is it any bigger an issue than it's been for 40 years. No, although there are forces out there that would like to make some people believe this is an escalation that it really isn't.
 
According to a global military think tank if China were to actually attack Taiwan the Chinese navy would be wiped off the face of the planet at the cost of most of our naval 7th fleet aircraft that would be sacrificed destroying the Chinese fleet. China would lose the war with the Pac Rim allies but at great cost to both sides. The Chinese know this as well...diplomatically they are playing both sides against the middle in case Russia, N Korea or Iran have sustained success or become weakened, China will be like Italy in WWII...they'll flip sides for an economic boost in a heart beat...Taiwan has very high tech defensive capabilities and is difficult to fight as their airforce and anti aircraft missles are tunneled into mountain sides instead of being exposed on flat airstrips. Taiwan is from the oceean floor to the highest peaks like the Himalayas...rugged mountains with deep sea walls all around it. Few Shallow beaches to launch an amphibious assaust....Taiwan has a natural moat surrounding it and the ocean is turbulent around it. Wee have developed pretty scary underwater and airborne drone weaponry.
 
riverman said:
According to a global military think tank if China were to actually attack Taiwan the Chinese navy would be wiped off the face of the planet at the cost of most of our naval 7th fleet aircraft that would be sacrificed destroying the Chinese fleet. China would lose the war with the Pac Rim allies but at great cost to both sides. The Chinese know this as well...diplomatically they are playing both sides against the middle in case Russia, N Korea or Iran have sustained success or become weakened, China will be like Italy in WWII...they'll flip sides for an economic boost in a heart beat...Taiwan has very high tech defensive capabilities and is difficult to fight as their airforce and anti aircraft missles are tunneled into mountain sides instead of being exposed on flat airstrips. Taiwan is from the oceean floor to the highest peaks like the Himalayas...rugged mountains with deep sea walls all around it. Few Shallow beaches to launch an amphibious assaust....Taiwan has a natural moat surrounding it and the ocean is turbulent around it. Wee have developed pretty scary underwater and airborne drone weaponry.
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And that doesn't even include the fact that China not only would be fighting basically every other country in the Pacific, they'd be fighting NATO.

China's tested some of its military resources in Ukraine. It hasn't gone particularly well.
 
Taiwan is building a drone air force and navy and realized they had to when Trump was elected....they have the highest tech on the planet and some of the brightest engineers...I believe they've built 3500 drone aircraft to date and not sure how many unmanned warships are finished..they are very aware that they need a coalition of allies to sustain a defense but an attack by China would actually be really damaging to China's navy and air force.
 
riverman said:
Taiwan is building a drone air force and navy and realized they had to when Trump was elected....they have the highest tech on the planet and some of the brightest engineers...I believe they've built 3500 drone aircraft to date and not sure how many unmanned warships are finished..they are very aware that they need a coalition of allies to sustain a defense but an attack by China would actually be really damaging to China's navy and air force.
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And we will be there in their support if China tries to invade.
 
cdub503 said:
I went there for a two week skate trip in 2013 it was one of my favorite trips.
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upload_2025-8-5_12-48-3.jpeg
Which sort of skate?

barfo
 

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