Politics Things are Breaking Great for Warren

[Lanny]

It's really hard to know. I think it depends a lot on how he responds.

barfo

It depends on too many variables for me to accurately predict. I feel more comfortable predicting the possibility of life somewhere out there in our Universe than I do on what's going to happen with Biden.

 

[crandc]

I would not count out either Biden or Sanders. If Sanders comes back roaring it might even help him; he can use his illness as a departure point for talking health care. Biden has been in public life for decades. He's done a lot of things I don't like but corruption is not one of them. He did not become a millionaire in the Senate, unlike, say, Mitch McConnell. The Trump fans, of course, consider every tweet Holy Writ. If he tweeted the moon is made of green cheese they'd all buy Wonder bread to make moon cheese sandwiches. But they aren't voting in Democratic primaries.

Where I think this would hurt him is that his selling point has been electability. He might not be most exciting but he can beat Trump. Now we can expect a nonstop barrage of "crooked Joe" and chants of "lock him up". The New York Times will dutifully write front page stories about Biden's credibility, mentioning in paragraph 51 that there is no evidence for charges. Four years ago, a majority was actually convinced a pathological liar and lifelong conman was the most honest and trustworthy candidate!

Warren is not surging by default. She has risen steadily every month; as people know more about her they like her more. She has "a plan for that", all in comprehensible language. She has raised a ton of money from small/medium donors. And she has thousands of committed volunteers ready to put in the time to get out the vote. Also, she is first in second choice poll. So as candidates drop out, their supporters will look for an alternative and Warren will get a lot of them. So it's not like Biden & Sanders are self-destructing and she's the only one left.

 

[calvin natt]

im really intrigued by the Dem candidates because they don’t seem like fucking morons with five brain cells. That’s exciting.

 

[riverman]

im really intrigued by the Dem candidates because they don’t seem like fucking morons with five brain cells. That’s exciting.

in fairness Trump makes George W Bush look like a Rhodes scholar

 

[Lanny]

I would not count out either Biden or Sanders. If Sanders comes back roaring it might even help him; he can use his illness as a departure point for talking health care. Biden has been in public life for decades. He's done a lot of things I don't like but corruption is not one of them. He did not become a millionaire in the Senate, unlike, say, Mitch McConnell. The Trump fans, of course, consider every tweet Holy Writ. If he tweeted the moon is made of green cheese they'd all buy Wonder bread to make moon cheese sandwiches. But they aren't voting in Democratic primaries.

Where I think this would hurt him is that his selling point has been electability. He might not be most exciting but he can beat Trump. Now we can expect a nonstop barrage of "crooked Joe" and chants of "lock him up". The New York Times will dutifully write front page stories about Biden's credibility, mentioning in paragraph 51 that there is no evidence for charges. Four years ago, a majority was actually convinced a pathological liar and lifelong conman was the most honest and trustworthy candidate!

Warren is not surging by default. She has risen steadily every month; as people know more about her they like her more. She has "a plan for that", all in comprehensible language. She has raised a ton of money from small/medium donors. And she has thousands of committed volunteers ready to put in the time to get out the vote. Also, she is first in second choice poll. So as candidates drop out, their supporters will look for an alternative and Warren will get a lot of them. So it's not like Biden & Sanders are self-destructing and she's the only one left.

Sanders is toast but I hear that Buttegieg is showing signs of life. Now, that would truly be a miracle, but realistically I don't think he stands a chance either.

 

[Lanny]

im really intrigued by the Dem candidates because they don’t seem like fucking morons with five brain cells. That’s exciting.

What are you saying? Are you saying the Trump even has five brain cells? A man that doubles down on his public blatant briberies?

 

[jonnyboy]

Sanders is toast but I hear that Buttegieg is showing signs of life. Now, that would truly be a miracle, but realistically I don't think he stands a chance either.

Sanders is leading certain polls in certain states. NH primary poll being one that isn’t exactly insignificant. He’s not toast, he just doesn’t get any love from the establishment news outlets you watch. Buttigieg is definitely toast though (thank god).

 

[donkiez]

Biden is horrible, he is such an establishment hack. He is only leading because of his relation with Obama and the fact that most people dont really know the other candidates. As the field narrows and people learn about the others, he is bound to fade.

Warren and Sanders are very similar candidates to the average person. They even seem to work together well and refuse to attack each other. I really like both of them and I feel at some point they merge their support into one or the other. The obvious choice would be Warren since Bernie is older and has more health issues.

Mayor Pete and Harris are the candidates the media wants. They are both just progressive enough to not rock the boat to much but be very enticing to the old democrats who want to feel progressive.

Everyone is still sleeping on Yang. He just feels like the 2016 Bernie at this point. He will finish in the top 3, book it.

 

[riverman]

Biden is horrible, he is such an establishment hack. He is only leading because of his relation with Obama and the fact that most people dont really know the other candidates. As the field narrows and people learn about the others, he is bound to fade.

Warren and Sanders are very similar candidates to the average person. They even seem to work together well and refuse to attack each other. I really like both of them and I feel at some point they merge their support into one or the other. The obvious choice would be Warren since Bernie is older and has more health issues.

Mayor Pete and Harris are the candidates the media wants. They are both just progressive enough to not rock the boat to much but be very enticing to the old democrats who want to feel progressive.

Everyone is still sleeping on Yang. He just feels like the 2016 Bernie at this point. He will finish in the top 3, book it.

Yang is my favorite so far but he doesn't have the fire to debate Trump and take down his bluster...in my view only Warren will have the ammo to destroy Trump in a debate...Bernie might have it but not sure his heart is up to excercising the adrenaline it's going to take to bring down the great pretender. Joe doesn't do as well when he can't smile his way through a debate..Warren isn't going to smile at all.

 

[MARIS61]

Truly funny that anyone thinks Americans will vote for socialism now that Trump has restored the economy and most Americans have seen their personal wealth increase dramatically through Capitalism in a couple years.

 

[donkiez]

Yang is my favorite so far but he doesn't have the fire to debate Trump and take down his bluster...in my view only Warren will have the ammo to destroy Trump in a debate...Bernie might have it but not sure his heart is up to excercising the adrenaline it's going to take to bring down the great pretender. Joe doesn't do as well when he can't smile his way through a debate..Warren isn't going to smile at all.

I kind of agree, but I dont think you need "fire" to debate Trump and win an election. Warren may have the fire but conservatives will always just chuckle and call her Pocahontas, and mutter "free shit" no matter how many zingers she gets. You really need support and the ability to reach people outside of your base. Yang and Bernie are the two who do that the best. If Bernie merges with Warren that will help her cause considerably. Yang is speaking a different language than the rest of the candidates, his approach is about policy, reason and the future and not about zingers. He really appeals to a broader group of people IMO, just look how many rabid conservatives say they like him. Personally I work in a highly automated industry and he is the only one who gets it and has a legit plan. His book is great, the chapter on young men and video game culture hits close to home for our household. I also went to his rally in Portland a few months ago and the chants of "Powerpoint" and "Math" had me laughing, he is really fun likable guy in general.

Most people I talk to seem to agree that Biden is horrible, which makes me laugh that Trump spends so much effort in knocking him down and might ultimately be Trumps undoing.

 

[riverman]

dont think you need "fire" to debate Trump and win an election

It's where Hillary lost...she was trying to be low key and she should have gone for his jugular....she looked weak in the debates..I think a woman who can get in Trump's grill with actual facts and bitch slap his childishness for the world to see will run away with the next election....she's already met with the Native American Counsel and clarified her native American assumptions...without blinking. Warren in my view has the best chance at exposing this fake president

 

[donkiez]

It's where Hillary lost...she was trying to be low key and she should have gone for his jugular....she looked weak in the debates

naw, debating was not her short fall. It was a combination of bad strategy, bad timing, years of conservative propaganda, interference, and distasteful tactics by her or the DNC. People put to much emphasis on debates, when in fact most people already have their minds made up by the debates and are just looking to cheer on their candidate. All you really have to do is not fall on your face in a debate.

 

[riverman]

naw, debating was not her short fall. It was a combination of bad strategy, bad timing, years of conservative propaganda, interference, and distasteful tactics by her or the DNC. People put to much emphasis on debates, when in fact most people already have their minds made up by the debates and are just looking to cheer on their candidate. All you really have to do is not fall on your face in a debate.

we disagree about this....the presidential debate is the most important part of the campaign...you win or lose there if it's a close race...Hillary let him pace around her time on stage without calling him out...she tried the "high road" Michelle Obama talked about and she didn't have the appeal to unmask his rhetoric. Hillary lost an election she should have run away with...she ignored states that swumg the electoral vote...just ran a campaign that looked like she thought she was a shoe in on Obama's coattails and mailing it in failed her in the end. A whole lot of voters "only" watch the final debates before voting. I couldn't vote for either of them so I voted libertarian.

 

[donkiez]

we disagree about this....the presidential debate is the most important part of the campaign...you win or lose there if it's a close race...Hillary let him pace around her time on stage without calling him out...she tried the "high road" Michelle Obama talked about and she didn't have the appeal to unmask his rhetoric. Hillary lost an election she should have run away with...she ignored states that swumg the electoral vote...just ran a campaign that looked like she thought she was a shoe in on Obama's coattails and mailing it in failed her in the end. A whole lot of voters "only" watch the final debates before voting. I couldn't vote for either of them so I voted libertarian.

I suppose since she lost by such a small margin that you could point to any issue and say thats what did it, when if fact it was a perfect storm of issues for her. FOX News had been working against her since 2008 though, so the anti Hillary sentiment was very strong in some. I feel like most voters knew her or thought they knew her enough to have that decision made by the final debates. Would a strong debate made a difference in your vote?

 

[riverman]

I suppose since she lost by such a small margin that you could point to any issue and say thats what did it, when if fact it was a perfect storm of issues for her. FOX News had been working against her since 2008 though, so the anti Hillary sentiment was very strong in some. I feel like most voters knew her or thought they knew her enough to have that decision made by the final debates. Would a strong debate made a difference in your vote?

probably....but I wanted change...I voted against partisan govt not ever considering Trump could win. It was a lose lose election for me...not this time....I'm voting against Trump even if it's Roseanne Barr or Pee Wee Herman.....any functioning adult at this point.

 

[Hoopguru]

we disagree about this....the presidential debate is the most important part of the campaign...you win or lose there if it's a close race...Hillary let him pace around her time on stage without calling him out...she tried the "high road" Michelle Obama talked about and she didn't have the appeal to unmask his rhetoric. Hillary lost an election she should have run away with...she ignored states that swumg the electoral vote...just ran a campaign that looked like she thought she was a shoe in on Obama's coattails and mailing it in failed her in the end. A whole lot of voters "only" watch the final debates before voting. I couldn't vote for either of them so I voted libertarian.

Bingo....and the funny things is Hillary has that Black Widow mentality too, she could have played to her perceived strength which is being a real bitch! It surprised me she didnt rip him a new ....!
And it really surprised me, and slick Willy, that she did'nt do much in the mid west? Im not she her health and endurance was all that great either, but I do agree that she thought she was the anointed one, and was just waiting for her coronation! Bam

 

[donkiez]

probably....but I wanted change...I voted against partisan govt not ever considering Trump could win. It was a lose lose election for me...not this time....I'm voting against Trump even if it's Roseanne Barr or Pee Wee Herman.....any functioning adult at this point.

haha, well the potential upside of a Trump presidency is that we might ditch establishment candidates for the next few cycles and ultimately be better off. Pretty much anyone but Biden or Trump would make me happy at this point. Warren is someone I would be proud of as a president. Some of her issues dont sit right with me though, not because I dont agree with them, but because I think they are too ambitious and will stall her ability to get things done. Things like a direct wealth tax or breaking up Facebook and Google will be losing battles.

 

[Lanny]

Sanders is leading certain polls in certain states. NH primary poll being one that isn’t exactly insignificant. He’s not toast, he just doesn’t get any love from the establishment news outlets you watch. Buttigieg is definitely toast though (thank god).

Good luck with Sanders. He's gonna need more than a ton of it.
As for Buttigieg, he's not worse off than Jimmy Carter when he won the nomination. So, probably toast but I can't rule him out just yet.

 

[e_blazer]

haha, well the potential upside of a Trump presidency is that we might ditch establishment candidates for the next few cycles and ultimately be better off. Pretty much anyone but Biden or Trump would make me happy at this point. Warren is someone I would be proud of as a president. Some of her issues dont sit right with me though, not because I dont agree with them, but because I think they are too ambitious and will stall her ability to get things done. Things like a direct wealth tax or breaking up Facebook and Google will be losing battles.

I agree about the "stall" issue. The biggest problem as far as Warren's and Bernie's plans for increased spending on a variety of social programs, as you touched on, is that they both depend upon new wealth taxes. Without those taxes, there's no money to do their big government spending plans. There are numerous articles available on the web expounding upon why such taxes would be constitutional or unconstitutional because of the "direct" taxation limitation in the Constitution. In order to get anything done, the Dems would have to retain the House and get control of the Senate. They would have to agree on the details of the plan and come to a sufficient majority to pass it in the face of strong Republican opposition, as well as likely opposition from many wealthy Democrats. In the unlikely event that comes to pass, constitutional challenges would no doubt eat up the rest of a first term. All of that would have to get cleared up before any other social spending could be implemented, and each social plan is going to face its own set of legislative and legal challenges.

 

[Lanny]

I kind of agree, but I dont think you need "fire" to debate Trump and win an election. Warren may have the fire but conservatives will always just chuckle and call her Pocahontas, and mutter "free shit" no matter how many zingers she gets. You really need support and the ability to reach people outside of your base. Yang and Bernie are the two who do that the best. If Bernie merges with Warren that will help her cause considerably. Yang is speaking a different language than the rest of the candidates, his approach is about policy, reason and the future and not about zingers. He really appeals to a broader group of people IMO, just look how many rabid conservatives say they like him. Personally I work in a highly automated industry and he is the only one who gets it and has a legit plan. His book is great, the chapter on young men and video game culture hits close to home for our household. I also went to his rally in Portland a few months ago and the chants of "Powerpoint" and "Math" had me laughing, he is really fun likable guy in general.

Most people I talk to seem to agree that Biden is horrible, which makes me laugh that Trump spends so much effort in knocking him down and might ultimately be Trumps undoing.

Trump cult members, aka Conservatives, only comprise about 40% of the electorate. Warren has the other 60% to appeal to.
Should Warren win the nomination, and my money is still on Biden, she will clobber Trump. Of course, any Democrat will clobber Trump whether it's Yang, Gabbard, Sanders or any one of the rest of the pack.

 

[barfo]

haha, well the potential upside of a Trump presidency is that we might ditch establishment candidates for the next few cycles and ultimately be better off.

Not sure I can agree with any part of that.

I'd hope the reaction to Trump will not be electing more Trumps.

barfo

 

[Hoopguru]

Trump cult members, aka Conservatives, only comprise about 40% of the electorate. Warren has the other 60% to appeal to.
Should Warren win the nomination, and my money is still on Biden, she will clobber Trump. Of course, any Democrat will clobber Trump whether it's Yang, Gabbard, Sanders or any one of the rest of the pack.

Now, Now, Now
I have friends and family that are conservative a few voted for trump and most voted Libertarian.
I would not classify them as cult members by any stretch. They are decent hard working patriotic Americans that have served our country, contributed to our society and communities.

 

[barfo]

Biden is horrible, he is such an establishment hack. He is only leading because of his relation with Obama and the fact that most people dont really know the other candidates. As the field narrows and people learn about the others, he is bound to fade.

I generally agreed that he's bound to fade; however I thought it would have happened by now...

Warren and Sanders are very similar candidates to the average person. They even seem to work together well and refuse to attack each other. I really like both of them and I feel at some point they merge their support into one or the other. The obvious choice would be Warren since Bernie is older and has more health issues.

Not sure they look the same to the average person. Policy-wise, yes. But a lot of winning the presidency is personality, and they are very different in that way.

Mayor Pete and Harris are the candidates the media wants. They are both just progressive enough to not rock the boat to much but be very enticing to the old democrats who want to feel progressive.

As an old democrat who wants to feel progressive, you are probably right.

However, rocking the boat too much leads to the boat taking on water and sinking. That's the reason why you don't want to rock the boat too much.

Everyone is still sleeping on Yang. He just feels like the 2016 Bernie at this point. He will finish in the top 3, book it.

I think you might be right. However, I don't think that's a good thing. The presidency isn't an internship. Well, it is right now, but it shouldn't be.

barfo

 

[donkiez]

Not sure I can agree with any part of that.

I'd hope the reaction to Trump will not be electing more Trumps.

barfo

I think we have different definitions on establishment candidates. I would consider Warren, Sanders and Yang as all firmly anti establishment. Yes the reaction to Trump should be anti Trump, not moderate.

However, rocking the boat too much leads to the boat taking on water and sinking. That's the reason why you don't want to rock the boat too much.

I say fuck it, let rock the boat. If you try to appease everyone you get no one. We need someone that people feel passionate about not a replay of 2016.

Not sure they (Warren and Sanders)look the same to the average person. Policy-wise, yes. But a lot of winning the presidency is personality, and they are very different in that way.

the main difference I see between them is who the appeal to. Warren is palatable to the Hillary bots from 2016 who still blame Sanders and will never vote for him out of spite. Sanders appeals to the young people who are fed up with the system screwing them over and want some radical change. Policy wise they are similar. Thats why I see them merging, if they do then they are unstoppable. I think they know this and are already somewhat working together.

I think you might be right. (about Yang) However, I don't think that's a good thing. The presidency isn't an internship. Well, it is right now, but it shouldn't be.

Yang has all the best ideas and all the best plans. Bigly.

 

[barfo]

I think we have different definitions on establishment candidates. I would consider Warren, Sanders and Yang as all firmly anti establishment. Yes the reaction to Trump should be anti Trump, not moderate.

Yeah, possibly we do.

I say fuck it, let rock the boat. If you try to appease everyone you get no one. We need someone that people feel passionate about not a replay of 2016.

That's exactly what Republican voters said in 2016.

I don't want a Democratic Trump.

the main difference I see between them is who the appeal to. Warren is palatable to the Hillary bots from 2016 who still blame Sanders and will never vote for him out of spite.

The 'Hillary bots' are the majority of the party, indeed, the majority of the voting public.

Sanders appeals to the young people who are fed up with the system screwing them over and want some radical change.

Say you want a revolution, well, you know...

Policy wise they are similar. Thats why I see them merging, if they do then they are unstoppable. I think they know this and are already somewhat working together.

That seems highly unlikely. Merging? How is that done exactly? Only one of them can be president, and the other one isn't going to be the VP.

A more likely scenario is Bernie continues to fall in the polls and eventually drops out, endorsing Warren on the way out the door. If that's what you mean by merging, sure.

Yang has all the best ideas and all the best plans. Bigly.

That's what they said about Trump, too.

barfo

 

[donkiez]

hat's exactly what Republican voters said in 2016.

I don't want a Democratic Trump.

And thats what Republicans got. I dont see anyone on the Dem side who I would consider a Democratic Trump. Love him or hate him he makes people passionate and his so called 40% base votes like they are 60%. If Biden gets the nod then Trump will get reelected. He is Hillary 2.0

The 'Hillary bots' are the majority of the party, indeed, the majority of the voting public.

Hillary bots are a vocal minority. The rest of us just did what we thought was best given what we had in a flawed system.

A more likely scenario is Bernie continues to fall in the polls and eventually drops out, endorsing Warren on the way out the door. If that's what you mean by merging, sure

Yes, but I would word it in a way that inspires more cooperation between the two and less sour grapes towards Bernie.

 

[barfo]

And thats what Republicans got. I dont see anyone on the Dem side who I would consider a Democratic Trump. Love him or hate him he makes people passionate and his so called 40% base votes like they are 60%. If Biden gets the nod then Trump will get reelected. He is Hillary 2.0

If the electorate lets the candidate be smeared by Trump & Co again, then whoever the nominee is is Hillary 2.0

Hillary bots are a vocal minority. The rest of us just did what we thought was best given what we had in a flawed system.

Ok. I agree that Hillary supporters who are bitter about Bernie are a minority. Probably about the same in number as Bernie supporters who are bitter about Hillary.
Neither group has any excuse to feel the way they do.

Yes, but I would word it in a way that inspires more cooperation between the two and less sour grapes towards Bernie.

I would approve of such wording.

barfo

 

[Lanny]

Now, Now, Now
I have friends and family that are conservative a few voted for trump and most voted Libertarian.
I would not classify them as cult members by any stretch. They are decent hard working patriotic Americans that have served our country, contributed to our society and communities.

I didn't mean all Conservative were part of the Trump cult. I meant all members of the Trump cult are, well, no, they're not even Conservatives. My bad.

 

[Hoopguru]

I didn't mean all Conservative were part of the Trump cult. I meant all members of the Trump cult are, well, no, they're not even Conservatives. My bad.

lol...i know you didn't aren't you republican? must have a bit of conservative in ya.
Actually Id rather be closer to a conservative than a republican....