OT ...Trump...beginning of the end?

[yankeesince59]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/us/donald-trump-loses-iowa.html?_r=0

 

[Rick2583]

If I remember correctly the last two republicans that won the Iowa carcus (Huckabee & Santorium) didn't even end up with there party's nomination so this win doesn't guarantee anything. It is also worth noting that many believe that the Evangelicals fueled his win over Trump. As Cruz is a very religious man. I suspect that New Hampshire will be a bit different. But we'll see.

 

[Messiah717]

We will certainly have to see what happens in NH. I think the biggest surprise of the night was how close Rubio came to knocking Trump into third. On the Dem side I just remain shocked that somebody under FBI investigation and with obvious poor judgment at the very least can still have the support that she does.

 

[Rick2583]

We will certainly have to see what happens in NH. I think the biggest surprise of the night was how close Rubio came to knocking Trump into third. On the Dem side I just remain shocked that somebody under FBI investigation and with obvious poor judgment at the very least can still have the support that she does.

I also can't believe that the bitch hasn't been indicted yet.

 

[chuckd3534]

Dem side has a self-proclaimed Socialist and Clinton...who has 60% + untrustworthy #'s AND could get indicted AND her best case is she was "only" under FBI investigation...LOL. Crazy stuff.

If the Republicans can't win in November they may never win the Presidency again.

If Rubio gets the nomination I think the GOP wins. If it is Trump or Cruz I think it will be a tossup. I am a Rubio man myself.

 

[Messiah717]

I also can't believe that the bitch hasn't been indicted yet.

Get this. There were six undecided delegates due to the race being too close to call in those precincts. The rules when that occur call for a coin toss. Hillary won all six tosses. If those coin tosses went the 50/50 route then Sanders would've walked away with 24 to Hillary's 23 delegates.

 

[Rick2583]

Dem side has a self-proclaimed Socialist and Clinton...who has 60% + untrustworthy #'s AND could get indicted AND her best case is she was "only" under FBI investigation...LOL. Crazy stuff.

If the Republicans can't win in November they may never win the Presidency again.

If Rubio gets the nomination I think the GOP wins. If it is Trump or Cruz I think it will be a tossup. I am a Rubio man myself.

Whatever board you came over from, welcome aboard.

 

[Yankeefan5545]

Now that things are getting meaningful I think Trump will start falling behind Cruz and Rubio. I like both. In the case of Bernie I think he's really going to shit in the skanks pie overall. Again I predict a Republican win.

 

[Messiah717]

Anyone else not named Hillary would've been skewered and already charged over this email nonsense.

 

[chuckd3534]

Totally agree Mess. The double standard is something else.

If she wins the Presidency this country will get what it deserves I guess....

Long way to go.

 

[Rick2583]

Anyone else not named Hillary would've been skewered and already charged over this email nonsense.

That's true Vic but not everyone has the president on speed dial.

 

[mrmel29]

Will be a miracle if she's indicted. Outrage by the people and the extent of the e mail server and top secret stuff on there will almost force the fbi to send over an indictment to justice. Problem is at that point it has to be approved by 4 levels of people in justice more partisan for hillary than the one before. Even though I think she should be in prison like you or I would be if we did this don't see an indictment coming because of those reasons. Her firewall is not in the south. It is in the justice department. The only way I see an actual indictment is if hillary loses new hampshire and south carolina and biden tells obama he'll step in. As soon as that happens hillary gets perp walked. But unless biden steps in the dems know sanders isn't winning a general election and will support the Hildabeest to the bitter end. Only see Trump or Rubio capable of beating her. Don't see cruz and his hard line conservative policies playing well in the general election. Would like to see trump or rubio with Kasich as VP to get all important ohio in the win column for the electoral vote.

 

[chuckd3534]

Rubio/Kasich OR Rubio/Haley are my two tickets.

I love Kasich, but worry a little that you would have two men up against Hillary. That's why I would also be okay with Haley as the VP if Rubio gets the nomination. Plus these days the VP nominee doesn't sway a state usually, so you could argue a woman on the ticket is the better political play as well...assuming Hillary is Dem nominee.

A Cuban America and a woman...nice duo.

Either one of those two tickets I would love...and to me would win the general.

 

[totus44]

If I remember correctly the last two republicans that won the Iowa carcus (Huckabee & Santorium) didn't even end up with there party's nomination so this win doesn't guarantee anything. It is also worth noting that many believe that the Evangelicals fueled his win over Trump. As Cruz is a very religious man. I suspect that New Hampshire will be a bit different. But we'll see.

Hey Rick the Iowa jinx just falls flat when you look at the historic turnout last night compared to the Huck/Sant wins. As for the evangelicals handing the win to Cruz, that's not quite what the full analysis shows. Cruz was expected to pull in the religious base, but he also pulled in hard core conservatives, plus he pulled in a plurality of libertarians and Reagan democrats. If Cruz appeal translates through the second super tuesday, he's got a viable path to nomination.

Right now its a 3 horse race with Cruz, Trump and Rubio and there is place for a 4th from the Governor set (Christie, Bush or Kasich). I think we'll see quite a few contested states so the likelihood is we'll have a brokered convention. And that scenario will bode well for Cruz and Rubio. If Trump doesn't win outright, he'll throw his delegates behind Cruz. In a brokered Con which of those two moves forward will depend on the opponent...if its Bern than Cruz. If Clinton than Rubio. But if she is indicted and they roll with Bloomberg, Biden - they pick Cruz, if Warren than they pick Rubio.

 

[chuckd3534]

No shot there will be a brokered convention. That stuff doesn't happen these days. Can't see it.

Cruz won because of the Evangelicals and very conservative people in Iowa. That's why he was also expected to do well there. Now where he differs from Huck and Sant is he has a lot of money and a great organization moving forward...neither of those two guys had that. New Hampshire is not a Cruz state, but SC and the Southern states are good for him. He will be right there with Rubio and Trump. Will be a long race, but someone will win it prior to the convention IMO.

And Bloomberg is an Independent not a Dem.

 

[totus44]

Like Trump, Bloomberg changes his affiliations when confident for his agenda.

As for Cruz, he got the Evangelical above pluralty but that's not what put him over the top. He has broader appeal to other factions of the base and that's what the pundits missed. He's also got the most social media savvy team, they studied the Obama playbook and have modernized it to 2016. With Paul out, he's gonna own the libertarians, and he picked up the key endorsements from tea parties not named Palin.

Few candidates today of the 10 still in have a clear path to 1237 delegates. As of now there is a likelihood of a brokered convention. SC will be a reset button after NH where independents can just elect that day to be R or D. The current NH polls are meaningless.

 

[blgridesagain]

Beginning of the end for Trump? Because he lost (finished 2nd) lowa after boycotting the Republican debate held in Iowa a couple days before the actual Iowa caucus?........Not quite enough "evidence" for me but I will say THIS→ there is serious pressure on Trump (and Rubio) to win New Hampshire.
You'll be hard pressed to find a Prez Candidate who has gone on to win the nomination or presidency WITHOUT winning either Iowa or New Hampshire.

But as far as focusing on losing OR winning Iowa alone- here are a few past results regarding losing or winning Iowa:

Santorum won Iowa in '12, he eventually went nowhere.
Same for Huckabee in '08 - won Iowa and eventually went home.
Reagan lost Iowa in '80- won nomination and Presidency.
McCain lost Iowa in '08 - won nomination.
Dukakis lost Iowa in '88 - won the nomination.
Bush SR lost Iowa in '88 - won Presidency.
Clinton lost Iowa in '92 - won the Presidency.
Romney lost Iowa in '12- won nomination.

 

[Rick2583]

Like I said, winning in Iowa in no guarantee either way, there still a long way to go.

 

[Rick2583]

^^^ And lets hope the lying bitch fades also.

 

[totus44]

After NH, only Cruz Trump Rubio Bush Christie and Kasich....and wouldn't be surprised to see 1 or 2 govs drop out.

 

[chuckd3534]

Winning Iowa means very little...agree there for sure.

This is not the beginning of the end for Trump at all. Cruz HAD to win Iowa due to the demographics in Iowa. Trump and Rubio both come out of Iowa in good shape IMO.

I think Rubio has a real legit chance to win this thing. Cruz I still am up in the air on...does he have broader appeal. And Trump is a wildcard...not sure where he lands long term.

After NH I think you'll get the big 3 and one Governor and be down to 4 maybe 5 candidates if Paul stays in...if not you'll be down to 4 IMO.

 

[yankeesince59]

...if you and I and others think it's between Rubio/Cruz, and since Trump has been leading, that means that it really is "the beginning of the end" for Trump.

...and demographics be damned...Cruz's victory was a surprise...he was not projected to win there.

...and fwiw, Rand Paul has already dropped out.

 

[chuckd3534]

Santorum and Paul dropped out today (surprised Paul dropped out...he was a guy I thought would go to the mattresses). If you don't count Gilmore that leaves 8 candidates left. And after NH we'll be down to 4 tops IMO.

I think Trump has a shot for sure. To me I think Trump and Rubio are the favorites, and I want to see what Cruz does in a state outside of Iowa which is 100% perfectly tailor made for him.

I don't agree Cruz's victory was a surprise at all. To me he was always the favorite. That state was PERFECT for him. He had BY FAR the best ground game. He spent BY FAR the most time in Iowa. The polls in Iowa are always VERY wrong, so they meant nothing to me. Cruz was the Iowa favorite, and he did what he had to do. Let's see how he plays in a state that isn't perfect for him.

 

[Rick2583]

The fat man from New Jersey will be the next to go.

 

[yankeesince59]

...well, the polls are what we had to go by...and the polls said Cruz was not projected to beat Trump...hell, Rubio nearly beat Trump...nobody saw that either. So if Trump was your "favorite", fine...but nearly everything I've seen/heard/read viewed Cruz'z victory as a "surprise".

...Most polls also had Hillary winning easily in Iowa,...she didn't....but many of the "experts" sometimes like to cover their ass after the fact by citing demographics, etc., as the reason they and polls were proven wrong.

...long long way to but I think Trump will fade but will still stubbornly be a pain in the ass...and when the dust settles, Rubio/Cruz will be our next POTUS.

 

[Rick2583]

Trump has finally admitted that boycotting the last debate could have been a mistake. You think?

 

[chuckd3534]

I don't love Cruz...BUT I would be the biggest Cruz supporter in the world if he was the GOP nominee against Hillary or Bernie. We cannot have either of those two in the WH...what a disaster.

Hopefully Rubio gets it done. For that NH needs to eliminate a few Governors so he can consolidate the "establishment" vote.

 

[yankeesince59]

...Chuck, you're spot on about Hillary/Bernie...we simply cannot afford another 4/8 years of this maniacal "leadership".

...but the really sad thing is that many of the same people who helped to elect Obama TWICE will be voting again.


...all things considered, Rubio may be the most "electable".

 

[blgridesagain]

Trump has finally admitted that boycotting the last debate could have been a mistake. You think?

Yup......and an unsuspected record number of mainline Republicans turned out to vote and they voted "against" Trump, that is, they came back home to the established "experienced" politician.
Personal opinion regarding Cruz- the guy "never" seems to talk about creating jobs, or actually looking forward to negotiating favorable business deals (like Trump constantly speaks of) with foreign govts which will/should also bring jobs back to the U.S. - Trump is constantly talking about targeting American businesses making it very favorable to KEEP their business HERE.....Cruz doesn't seem to have a clue, or hardly mentions our negative trade imbalance with China (-500 bil yearly), Mexico, ect.
Cruz is a constitutional "expert" and within 20 seconds of hearing him speak he always seems to revert back to the Constitution......"Constitution this"..."Constitution that"......the Constitution doesn't build roads, pick up the garbage or give you the balls and ability to make difficult decisions, be a leader, be able to reach across, influence and touch other party lines to get things done and make favorable deals for YOUR agenda and the country.
Cruz is too strident, comes across as convalescing and doesn't have the "pizzaz" to sway enough blue collar workers, labor unions, independents and the general minority groups......his far right leanings (imo) aren't going to play well in the big cities which play a big part in carrying States in the general election.
And you can write off the northeast with Rubio and Cruz.

Obama is also a "Constitutional Lawyer"........ he plays deep left field and Cruz plays deep right field.....except Obama has much much more charisma, is an excellent well spoken constant campaigner and manages to pull in virtually all of the Dem and liberal voters, younger people, minorities, "poor", labor unions, women who favor abortion on demand and enough "regular Joes".

Trump has the capacity to reach considerably more non traditional "Republicans" than Cruz.....AND Rubio - IMHO.
I think his Nationalistic, positive, confident national security "can do" persona will trump the professional CONSERVATIVE "talkers" from the Senate...jmho

 

[Messiah717]

Poor little Hillary Clinton once again talking about huge right wing conspiracies and the boogie man who always seem out to get here. I simply cannot stand this woman and her nonsense. Everything that goes wrong is someone else's fault or some plot against her.