Using $8m a Year on Hickson - Should that Be the Offseason Plan?

[PapaG]

I try to find reasons why to not keep him around, but at this point, he is playing at a level that makes it almost impossible to replace his production with the available FA options.

I know he's undersized, and I know he doesn't really defend, but he is playing with a motor that will be good for another 4 years, even being undersized. Plus, he compliments LMA well, because he can go inside and collect rebounds while allowing LMA to play pick and roll with Lillard.

JJ has completely flipped my thinking, and maybe the cap space is best used giving him a contract? Sounds crazy to me typing it, but what are the other options that will greatly improve the team over the summer.

If JJ can be a part of a trade to get a high pick, then I will reconsider.

 

[Further]

It will cost the Blazers 7 mil in cap space to keep his bird rights. Although I like Babbitt, I say let Babbitt go but use the 7mil of cap space for Hickson. That should still leave the Blazers around 8 mil for a bu point or some player, then match Hickson up to about 10mil.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I've come almost around to this. With his cap hold and assuming a small increase in cap line, then we'd basically have around the MLE left.

 

[BrianFromWA]

It will cost the Blazers 7 mil in cap space to keep his bird rights. Although I like Babbitt, I say let Babbitt go but use the 7mil of cap space for Hickson. That should still leave the Blazers around 8 mil for a bu point or some player, then match Hickson up to about 10mil.

remember that we have to factor in costs of 2013 draft pick, which cuts into the excess.

 

[KingSpeed]

I want Babbitt first. Then sign Hickson using our Bird rights.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

remember that we have to factor in costs of 2013 draft pick, which cuts into the excess.

Well, let's hope we don't get the pick then.

 

[BrianFromWA]

LOL. You have me there...

OUt of curiosity, who would you spend on this summer (it'd be an Andre Miller-esque contract, just enough more than MLE to count)?

My thought earlier was something like Redick and a project big man on the cheap. But if we keep HIckson and Leonard and Freeland keep developing, then we can maintain Hickson's cap hold, and see if something like 4/30 can get Redick. Then offer JJ whatever gets him back (probably just a bit shy of Batum numbers, if he keeps this up) and see about getting Luke or someone else on the 2.652M room exception.

 

[Draco]

Can we give Hickson an extension now? I'd try to do that if possible, but I'm a little concerned his productivity will drop once he's locked up. Same risk if we resign him in the offseason.

 

[Further]

I would really like Jack as bu guard. He scores off the bench and plays D. He is also a hard worker, which I respect.

 

[HailBlazers]

Jack has really surprised, much better than Bayless has turned out

 

[blazerboy30]

I like JJ and would like to keep him, but I think we need to swing for the fences with our cap space through a lopsided trade. I just don't see this team as a contender even if most of our players reach their potential. We still need to keep targeting a superstar.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Can we give Hickson an extension now? I'd try to do that if possible, but I'm a little concerned his productivity will drop once he's locked up. Same risk if we resign him in the offseason.

IIRC, only contracts 4 years in length or longer can be extended. JJ's on a 1/4M.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

I think it is realistic for him to a gree on a deal that starts lower since we can give bigger raises and a fifth year. We could also try shedding Freeland's deal to use our remaining cap space on a guy that moves the needle.

 

[magnifier661]

remember that we have to factor in costs of 2013 draft pick, which cuts into the excess.

Unless we make the playoffs; then we won't have one

 

[jlprk]

After much thought, here's my analysis.

anti-Hickson

Boooooooooooo!

pro-Hickson

Yeeeeeeaaaaaaaa!

 

[Mediocre Man]

Hickson doesn't make our team better

 

[Blazinaway]

what if CHI amnesties Boozer this summer? he's be a guy I'd consider going after with a low bid - 4-5 mil per on the waiver thing with amnestied players

 

[3RA1N1AC]

Hickson doesn't make our team better

3.2 WS thus far says otherwise

 

[Blazinaway]

Hickson doesn't make our team better

seriously, I'd hate to think our record without him especially given our lack of depth, as the next in line after him simply stinks. I'd say 5-7 wins less.

Now do I want to pay him 8-10 mil per - no I really don't

 

[3RA1N1AC]

price of a win is 1.47 million (or 1.86 for a free agent)

so he is clearly worth 8 million per

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/09/explaining-the-nba-cap-and-the-value-of-a-win/

 

[mook]

Hickson isn't much of a destination, but he's a good stepping stone. If we can get him on a reasonable contract ($8mil/year is reasonable for a big with his rebounding skills and defensive liabilities), it probably is a good move to lock him up long-term. It positions you for trading him or Aldridge for some other pieces a year or two down the road.

He's a little like Crash was to us. Gerald Wallace didn't make much sense to our team after Roy and Oden crashed and burned, but I don't think any Blazer fan regrets his acquisition (as it led to us eventually drafting Lillard.)

And if Leonard develops into the center we all hope for, Hickson may have a long future on this team as a big man off the bench.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

price of a win is 1.47 million (or 1.86 for a free agent)

so he is clearly worth 8 million per

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/07/09/explaining-the-nba-cap-and-the-value-of-a-win/

If he plays 80 games this season at his current MPG, he'll be worth about 8.13 Win Shares. Multiply that by 1.47 and you get $12 million. Multiply that by 1.86 and you get $15.1 million.

 

[Pinwheel1]

what if CHI amnesties Boozer this summer? he's be a guy I'd consider going after with a low bid - 4-5 mil per on the waiver thing with amnestied players

Blazinaway, we need to be stayinaway from this guy. I would not go as far as calling him a cancer, but he tends to be lazy and selfish. Horrible defensive player.

 

[THE HCP]

Stat geeks put his numbers up with other bigs around the league for us!

 

[mook]

Paul Millsap signed for about $8mil/year (thanks to Portland). Hickson is about the same level of talent/type of player, IMO. Maybe Hickson is a worse defender, but not by much if you play him at PF. He's a much better rebounder than Millsap though by TRB%, which is saying a lot.

Hickson is kind of in a rare category--he's a high quality role player who neither defends nor scores nor passes extremely well. But his TRB% is elite this year, above guys like Duncan, Robinson and Olajuwon (although a tier below the ultimate rebounder Dennis Rodman).

He's kind of a hard guy to figure out a true market value for, because there just aren't many examples out there of one-dimensional players whose only dimension is elite rebounding. He's kind of like the Steve Kerr of boards.

 

[Natebishop3]

I like JJ and would like to keep him, but I think we need to swing for the fences with our cap space through a lopsided trade. I just don't see this team as a contender even if most of our players reach their potential. We still need to keep targeting a superstar.

For who? It's easy to say that you wanted a lopsided trade, but that's no guarantee, and the people available in free agency this year aren't much better and certainly aren't younger. JJ is only 24. He's averaging a double double. If we lose him, I doubt we pick up someone who can replace his production.

A bird in the hand...

 

[Rhal]

Im all for resigning him for around 6-8m a year for 3-4 years. Mostly iv soured on the big free agents and would like an off season of JJ Reddick/babbit/hickson/someone else. This team shown the ability to gut and grind out games leaving me thinking we need depth instead of a big name move.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2

 

[e_blazer]

It seems to me that the question is whether Meyers Leonard is going to develop into a starting-caliber C in the next couple of years. If so, then tying up $8M or so in Hickson doesn't make sense. Freeland and Babbitt are a lot cheaper options at the backup 4 spot. Leonard is RAW, but he's athletic. I think he can develop, but the question is how long will it take for him to get there? I guess there's some merit to signing Hickson and plan on trading him when Leonard is ready. Tough call.

 

[Hobbesarable]

I've come almost around to this. With his cap hold and assuming a small increase in cap line, then we'd basically have around the MLE left.

Yes. With that in mind, we should go after Jarrett Jack as a combo 1/2 bench player. What are your thoughts?

 

[mook]

It seems to me that the question is whether Meyers Leonard is going to develop into a starting-caliber C in the next couple of years. If so, then tying up $8M or so in Hickson doesn't make sense. Freeland and Babbitt are a lot cheaper options at the backup 4 spot. Leonard is RAW, but he's athletic. I think he can develop, but the question is how long will it take for him to get there? I guess there's some merit to signing Hickson and plan on trading him when Leonard is ready. Tough call.

A 30 mpg elite rebounder, even as a backup, is a decent value at that price. You can get by with cheaper options like Babbitt and Leonard, but those two aren't good enough to be the best bench guys on a team hoping to make a deep playoff run. Hickson is.