Way too early playoff talk

[Everything Beagle]

So the Blazers are currently 9th, at 22-22 (.500), but things are looking up:
The last 22 games (13-9, .591) have been a lot better than our first 22 games (9-13, .409). And our last 11 games (8-3, .727) have been even better than that. Our trajectory is picking up right as people are coming back from injuries. Great news all around.

So where will we end up?

The lower half of the Western Conference playoff picture currently looks like this, based solely off extrapolating the current win percentage over 82 games:
5 Houston: 51 win pace (51.250 wins)
6 Lakers: 50 win pace (50.000 wins)
7 Phoenix: 49 win pace (48.809 wins)
8 Warriors: 46 win pace (45.767 wins)
9 Blazers: 41 win pace (41.000 wins)

The Blazers, if they played at their .591 win rate of the last 22 games will only win 44 (technically the pace says 44.458 wins, but that only means we could accidentally win 45). However, if they play at their last 11-game pace (.727), they're on pace to win 50 games (49.626 wins), which would put them at 7th tied with the Lakers. Because we won the series against them, we own a big tie-breaker, and could get 6th place off of them.

We have played the most games out of all the teams in the above list, which means we will get the most rest in the second half of the season. We're young, we're deep, and less reliant on 30+ year olds than any other team on that list outside of Phoenix. We might really outperform expectations in the last 38 games.

What if we got 5th place?

While 5th place is a huge aspirational goal, it's not out of the realm of possibility if Houston does poorly. They're .500 in their last 10 games, which if that pace holds drops them to only 46 wins. Not likely of course but it's meant to show how close this race could be. The Lakers are also playing .500 ball in their last ten, which if held to gives them only 46 wins as well. The pressure will be on for these older teams who might be more tired in the second half as they have to play four and three additional games over us, respectively.

All I'm saying is there's a chance for us to really bust some heads in the last 38 games, and we might not have to be in the play-in at all come April.

 

[SwissBlazer]

In before @THE HCP calms you down.

 

[Everything Beagle]

In before @THE HCP calms you down.

38-0 baybee!

 

[twobullz]

Saw on nba.com. That the blazers have played the third hardest schedule in the league so far. So the schedule should help moving forward I would think. Of course I t could all change at the trade deadline.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

No, we need to lose one more year. If we make the playoffs our 1st goes to Chicago. I want a lotto pick so we can make one more big deal and really try to make a run for it next year with a healthy Dame back.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Don't see how .500 can get 44 wins.

Making the playin would be nice, get that experience in a high pressure game. Also the final weeks and months of the regular season would have meaningful games for the first time in a half decade. Of course making the playoffs would be best. But just having the fight to try and make it is great experience.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

No, we need to lose one more year. If we make the playoffs our 1st goes to Chicago. I want a lotto pick so we can make one more big deal and really try to make a run for it next year with a healthy Dame back.

False. We need to make the playoffs so we keep our 2027 pick (otherwise Chicago can get it) and to fully guarantee we get the 2028 Bucks pick swap.

Of course not to mention a dozen guys on the roster are developing better if we make the playoffs vs adding one 19 year old.

If we fall short of the playoffs the 2026 pick can be a consolation prize. But it shouldn't be a goal, and might ultimately cost far more value to keep it then Chicago getting it now.

 

[crandc]

Time to end the culture of losing in Portland. Goal should be to win. And maybe score a playoff upset. At least learn to play playoff basketball.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

False. We need to make the playoffs so we keep our 2027 pick (otherwise Chicago can get it) and to fully guarantee we get the 2028 Bucks pick swap.

Of course not to mention a dozen guys on the roster are developing better if we make the playoffs vs adding one 19 year old.

If we fall short of the playoffs the 2026 pick can be a consolation prize. But it shouldn't be a goal, and might ultimately cost far more value to keep it then Chicago getting it now.

Uhhhhh, we wouldn't be getting a 19 year old next year. I clearly said we would use the lotto pick in a consolidation trade to bring in another piece by trade. With the idea that we would make the playoffs next year so that Chicago gets a much worse pick and we keep our 2028 picks.

 

[1 Eye Jack]

With Jimmy Butler going down for season have to think GS will drop unless they are able to pull off big trade

 

[BassPlaya]

Its never too early to dream about the playoffs. Dreaming and having fun regardless, is what being a fan is to me.

I see how hard the sked has been, and what the remaining sked looks like..
and then I think of the injuries that this Trailblazer team has weathered........
and think of the development that happened because of that misfortune...

....and I get morning of a field trip, date at a drive in movie, cutie kiss on your neck.....HAPPY!

 

[Eastoff]

No, we need to lose one more year. If we make the playoffs our 1st goes to Chicago. I want a lotto pick so we can make one more big deal and really try to make a run for it next year with a healthy Dame back.

Make it to the play in and lose that.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

So the Blazers are currently 9th, at 22-22 (.500), but things are looking up:
The last 22 games (13-9, .591) have been a lot better than our first 22 games (9-13, .409). And our last 11 games (8-3, .727) have been even better than that. Our trajectory is picking up right as people are coming back from injuries. Great news all around.

So where will we end up?

The lower half of the Western Conference playoff picture currently looks like this, based solely off extrapolating the current win percentage over 82 games:
5 Houston: 51 win pace (51.250 wins)
6 Lakers: 50 win pace (50.000 wins)
7 Phoenix: 49 win pace (48.809 wins)
8 Warriors: 46 win pace (45.767 wins)
9 Blazers: 44 win pace (44.000 wins)

The Blazers, if they played at their .591 win rate of the last 22 games will only win 44 (technically the pace says 44.458 wins, but that only means we could accidentally win 45). However, if they play at their last 11-game pace (.727), they're on pace to win 50 games (49.626 wins), which would put them at 7th tied with the Lakers. Because we won the series against them, we own a big tie-breaker, and could get 6th place off of them.

We have played the most games out of all the teams in the above list, which means we will get the most rest in the second half of the season. We're young, we're deep, and less reliant on 30+ year olds than any other team on that list outside of Phoenix. We might really outperform expectations in the last 38 games.

What if we got 5th place?

While 5th place is a huge aspirational goal, it's not out of the realm of possibility if Houston does poorly. They're .500 in their last 10 games, which if that pace holds drops them to only 46 wins. Not likely of course but it's meant to show how close this race could be. The Lakers are also playing .500 ball in their last ten, which if held to gives them only 46 wins as well. The pressure will be on for these older teams who might be more tired in the second half as they have to play four and three additional games over us, respectively.

All I'm saying is there's a chance for us to really bust some heads in the last 38 games, and we might not have to be in the play-in at all come April.

Rather than dividing the first 44 games 22-22 or 33-11, I'm dividing after the NOP loss...9-16 at that point, and 13-6 since--which is nice because that 19 games dovetails nicely into the remaining 38. 26-12 the rest of the way gets us to 48-34, which likely still puts us in the play-in, but also has us playing at a 56-win pace over the final 2/3 of the season, which suggests we're good enough to beat anyone (except maybe OKC).

Just need this team to get (and stay) healthy and continue to gel, and a playoff run is a real possibility.

 

[Everything Beagle]

Don't see how .500 can get 44 wins.

Sorry, I mathed wrong. Fixed now.

 

[BigGameDamian]

No, we need to lose one more year. If we make the playoffs our 1st goes to Chicago. I want a lotto pick so we can make one more big deal and really try to make a run for it next year with a healthy Dame back.

And next year we’ll find a reason to tank again…

 

[1 Eye Jack]

And next year we’ll find a reason to tank again…

Losing one more year is huge risk with Chicago pick hanging over our head. How about signing Love and then trading to Bulls to clear up that pick we owe them. Loves value has to be as good as they could expect from that pick and we don’t need to risk losing the Bucks pick.

Plus we will have very limited minutes for Love next year assuming we are healthier

 

[julius]

Didn't see the bit about Butler tearing his ACL. Oof.

 

[RR7]

16 replies and not one Jim Mora? What's the world coming to? Thanks Obama

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

16 replies and not one Jim Mora? What's the world coming to? Thanks Obama

View attachment 79878

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I'm legitimately torn. I want us to play well, but I also want that draft pick and don't believe we'd survive a first round series. So I would prefer to ignore the idea of playoffs and just focus on each game. That way I can root for the team to win with a clear conscience, even if in the long run it's counterproductive.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Uhhhhh, we wouldn't be getting a 19 year old next year. I clearly said we would use the lotto pick in a consolidation trade to bring in another piece by trade. With the idea that we would make the playoffs next year so that Chicago gets a much worse pick and we keep our 2028 picks.

Like the consolidation trades the Blazers did with their draft pick the last 4 years? Oh wait that's right Cronin has never done one instead drafting a 19 year old with every single Blazers draft pick.

Or perhaps you want a trade like Olshey did where we sent out 2 Blazers picks for Robert Covington.

The Blazers either owe Chicago a picks one of these years or miss the playoff for 7 consecutive seasons. Just enjoy the playoff push and if we get it enjoy that its the best case scenario for the roster.

Having a dozen guys that can get the team to the playoffs is far more valuable than delaying a pick to Chicago one year.

Also giving Chicago our 2026 pick makes it EASIER to trade a pick in a trade as there would no longer be stipen restrictions on the blazers 2027 2028 2029 picks nor on the unprotected Orlando 2028 pick we own.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

And next year we’ll find a reason to tank again…

Yeah, or not. Damian will be back, Jrue will be a year older etc.

Our roster right now does not have the talent to make any realistic run. But, adding Lillard and a consolidation trade for another star/better fit could change that next year.

Talent wise - if the team sees Lillard and think he will be 85% the player he was, I think you make a trade to go for it. What better way to try to entice a team than having a lotto pick this year to sweeten the pot.

Also, even if the wheels completely fell off and we did end up in the lotto, we can go to Chicago and say hey, we know we are in the lotto this year, but lets give you this pick, you send a 2nd and we call it good in 2027. Unknown what they would say, but its not unreasonable to think they would be open to that.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Like the consolidation trades the Blazers did with their draft pick the last 4 years? Oh wait that's right Cronin has never done one instead drafting a 19 year old with every single Blazers draft pick.

Or perhaps you want a trade like Olshey did where we sent out 2 Blazers picks for Robert Covington.

The Blazers either owe Chicago a picks one of these years or miss the playoff for 7 consecutive seasons. Just enjoy the playoff push and if we get it enjoy that its the best case scenario for the roster.

Having a dozen guys that can get the team to the playoffs is far more valuable than delaying a pick to Chicago one year.

Also giving Chicago our 2026 pick makes it EASIER to trade a pick in a trade as there would no longer be stipen restrictions on the blazers 2027 2028 2029 picks nor on the unprotected Orlando 2028 pick we own.

I didn't make any mention of a trade like 2 firsts for Covington.

We have been on different timelines than now. Cronin tore it down to build it back up. He did trade for Deni, that was a targeted player they looked for and executed on, no?

A lotto pick in the current year is generally going to hold more value than a future pick that nobody knows where it lands. Some gms dont have multiple years to waste.

 

[Everything Beagle]

No, we need to lose one more year. If we make the playoffs our 1st goes to Chicago. I want a lotto pick so we can make one more big deal and really try to make a run for it next year with a healthy Dame back.

With all respect, fuck this. I’m sick of waiting. I’m nearly 50, and my oldest is the same age I was when the Blazers were starting their late 80s run. I don’t care if the West is stacked or if we lose value of one pick. I’m so sick of this shit. PLAY HARD NOW.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

With all respect, fuck this. I’m sick of waiting. I’m nearly 50, and my oldest is the same age I was when the Blazers were starting their late 80s run. I don’t care if the West is stacked or if we lose value of one pick. I’m so sick of this shit. PLAY HARD NOW.

I get it, but if you want to win a title, we have to think long term. I also would like to see a title contender before I pass away.

Making the playoffs and losing in the first round means little to me. Hard to bet excited over those prospects.

 

[Everything Beagle]

I get it, but if you want to win a title, we have to think long term. I also would like to see a title contender before I pass away.

Making the playoffs and losing in the first round means little to me. Hard to bet excited over those prospects.

Winning another title is such a useless fantasy. Get further than you were last week. Build on EXPERIENCE dammit.

 

[BassPlaya]

With all respect, fuck this. I’m sick of waiting. I’m nearly 50, and my oldest is the same age I was when the Blazers were starting their late 80s run. I don’t care if the West is stacked or if we lose value of one pick. I’m so sick of this shit. PLAY HARD NOW.

They are bruh. It's just that some fans now see things through a tank filter. Blazers are the anti tank.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Winning another title is such a useless fantasy. Get further than you were last week. Build on EXPERIENCE dammit.

No idea why the images aren't working. But they all said something along the lines of

"Then what is the point of all this!"

 

[Everything Beagle]

They are bruh. It's just that some fans now see things through a tank filter. Blazers are the anti tank.

I know they are, sis.

 

[Everything Beagle]

No idea why the images aren't working. But they all said something along the lines of

"Then what is the point of all this!"

In reality? To win as many games as you can, bring joy to the hearts of fans, and sell a lot of merchandise. Mostly that last one but the first two go a long way to making the third one happen.

The trophy is not a real goal any more than winning Powerball is a real goal you can have.