Way too early playoff talk (3 Viewers)

[JfizzleBlazer]

In reality? To win as many games as you can, bring joy to the hearts of fans, and sell a lot of merchandise. Mostly that last one but the first two go a long way to making the third one happen.

The trophy is not a real goal any more than winning Powerball is a real goal you can have.

I can understand that mindset.

I just have been let down so many times being a Raiders and Blazers fan that I want to see a title. Hard to get pumped about the team if feeling the joy of winning a title is never a possible outcome. I want to see one title before I pass. Either sport.

 

[kjironman1]

So the Blazers are currently 9th, at 22-22 (.500), but things are looking up:
The last 22 games (13-9, .591) have been a lot better than our first 22 games (9-13, .409). And our last 11 games (8-3, .727) have been even better than that. Our trajectory is picking up right as people are coming back from injuries. Great news all around.

So where will we end up?

The lower half of the Western Conference playoff picture currently looks like this, based solely off extrapolating the current win percentage over 82 games:
5 Houston: 51 win pace (51.250 wins)
6 Lakers: 50 win pace (50.000 wins)
7 Phoenix: 49 win pace (48.809 wins)
8 Warriors: 46 win pace (45.767 wins)
9 Blazers: 41 win pace (41.000 wins)

The Blazers, if they played at their .591 win rate of the last 22 games will only win 44 (technically the pace says 44.458 wins, but that only means we could accidentally win 45). However, if they play at their last 11-game pace (.727), they're on pace to win 50 games (49.626 wins), which would put them at 7th tied with the Lakers. Because we won the series against them, we own a big tie-breaker, and could get 6th place off of them.

We have played the most games out of all the teams in the above list, which means we will get the most rest in the second half of the season. We're young, we're deep, and less reliant on 30+ year olds than any other team on that list outside of Phoenix. We might really outperform expectations in the last 38 games.

What if we got 5th place?

While 5th place is a huge aspirational goal, it's not out of the realm of possibility if Houston does poorly. They're .500 in their last 10 games, which if that pace holds drops them to only 46 wins. Not likely of course but it's meant to show how close this race could be. The Lakers are also playing .500 ball in their last ten, which if held to gives them only 46 wins as well. The pressure will be on for these older teams who might be more tired in the second half as they have to play four and three additional games over us, respectively.

All I'm saying is there's a chance for us to really bust some heads in the last 38 games, and we might not have to be in the play-in at all come April.

I absolutely love the positivity in this post. Moving up in these standings is absolutely possible but passing all 4 of those teams seems extremely unlikely. I could see a couple of those teams struggling and the Blazers pick up steam though and that might net 8th or even the 7th seed. Then again they would have to prove themselves in the play in to get in the playoffs regardless.

I’m anxious this year to see what happens at the trade deadline more so than in past seasons.

I also still have no real idea what is happening with ownership at this point? When exactly does this get cleared up and where are we going from there?

 

[Cugel]

Clippers are making the playoffs unless they get injured. If POR makes the play-in I would be ok.

 

[Everything Beagle]

I can understand that mindset.

I just have been let down so many times being a Raiders and Blazers fan that I want to see a title. Hard to get pumped about the team if feeling the joy of winning a title is never a possible outcome. I want to see one title before I pass. Either sport.

I mean so do I but I’ve learned that when you prioritize hoping for the best thing that could ever happen, you completely lose sight of how great small victories are. Desire is the root of suffering.

 

[Everything Beagle]

I absolutely love the positivity in this post. Moving up in these standings is absolutely possible but passing all 4 of those teams seems extremely unlikely. I could see a couple of those teams struggling and the Blazers pick up steam though and that might net 8th or even the 7th seed. Then again they would have to prove themselves in the play in to get in the playoffs regardless.

I’m anxious this year to see what happens at the trade deadline more so than in past seasons.

I also still have no real idea what is happening with ownership at this point? When exactly does this get cleared up and where are we going from there?

Agreed; you shoot for fifth because if you’re prepared, opportunities for good luck can be taken advantage of. But realistically 7th is probably the best we’ll get without help from other teams faltering.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

I mean so do I but I’ve learned that when you prioritize hoping for the best thing that could ever happen, you completely lose sight of how great small victories are. Desire is the root of suffering.

I hear that. I went a different way though. I just realized sports are sports and at the end of the day, it shouldn't affect my mood as much as I let it in my younger years.

 

[Everything Beagle]

I hear that. I went a different way though. I just realized sports are sports and at the end of the day, it shouldn't affect my mood as much as I let it in my younger years.

Exactly: sports are a bet you make with yourself that you’ll be happy three hours later lol and i have stopped betting so much.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Our roster right now does not have the talent to make any realistic run.

I refuse to accept this premise. We have an all-star wing, a secondary high-volume scorer, a stabilizing experienced vet PG, a legit defensive anchor, a couple of conscienceless bench gunners, and several other competent role-players. Plus, maybe someday Scoot. I will not undersell this team's "talent" level.

 

[kjironman1]

I hear that. I went a different way though. I just realized sports are sports and at the end of the day, it shouldn't affect my mood as much as I let it in my younger years.

Yep. Enjoy the great work, effort and results. Let the games be played and just never get too tired of anything.

 

[kjironman1]

I refuse to accept this premise. We have an all-star wing, a secondary high-volume scorer, a stabilizing experienced vet PG, a legit defensive anchor, a couple of conscienceless bench gunners, and several other competent role-players. Plus, maybe someday Scoot. I will not undersell this team's "talent" level.

It’s young though so I’m enjoying their success. Can’t say they will be able to beat really good teams in a series though. That takes more than talent.

 

[Everything Beagle]

It’s young though so I’m enjoying their success. Can’t say they will be able to beat really good teams in a series though. That takes more than talent.

If you mean buy-in from league leadership, I will point out that the refs are starting to respect us. I think our style of play fits in with the narrative the NBA wants to push about honest, hard working parity.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

It’s young though so I’m enjoying their success. Can’t say they will be able to beat really good teams in a series though. That takes more than talent.

And perhaps inexperience will hurt them--completely legitimate possibility. But we do have multi-time champ Holiday at the point, Williams and Grant who've both been to a conference finals, and Coach Splitter who's won a title as well. I'm not counting these dudes out for anything.

 

[blazerkor]

I still want to see us continue to commit to our most likely championship window with Deni, Shae, Tou, Clingan and more at the trade deadline. Not taking a big step backwards but for me I don't care so much about how much playoff experience we have on the squad right now.

I'd get what we can in the way of young talent and picks for Jrue, Jerami and Rob and even Tisse if he has any value. Keep any of them if there isn't good value for them but if we can build a better team around that young core of players with the same championship window, I would like that.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

I refuse to accept this premise. We have an all-star wing, a secondary high-volume scorer, a stabilizing experienced vet PG, a legit defensive anchor, a couple of conscienceless bench gunners, and several other competent role-players. Plus, maybe someday Scoot. I will not undersell this team's "talent" level.

Looking at a team like OKC, I just think we are still one big piece away. I think we have enough depth and young guys to put together a strong offer to flush out the rotation a bit and hopefully a vet can see that and sign here for a role. To replenish some of the depth we dealt away.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Didn't see the bit about Butler tearing his ACL. Oof.

I think we can pass the Warriors now. It will be interesting to see what kind of trade they can get for Kuminga.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Warriors trading Kuminga is going to happen for sure.

But now I think the question is do they cash in future picks to try and win with Curry? Or just build for the long term?

Unlike the Lakers/Clippers/Knicks/etc the Warriors own all their picks so they could make a huge offer for one or two Allstars.

But I don't think they do that unless they could legit contend and that would need to be multiple starters or stars coming in.

Will be an interesting deadline.

 

[kjironman1]

If you mean buy-in from league leadership, I will point out that the refs are starting to respect us. I think our style of play fits in with the narrative the NBA wants to push about honest, hard working parity.

I have noticed that. The team is respectful of the referees as a whole and it seems to be paying off. What I’m questioning is their overall lack of playoff experience other than Jrue and Dame. Take those two out and there aren’t a bunch of playoff minutes.

 

[kjironman1]

And perhaps inexperience will hurt them--completely legitimate possibility. But we do have multi-time champ Holiday at the point, Williams and Grant who've both been to a conference finals, and Coach Splitter who's won a title as well. I'm not counting these dudes out for anything.

I didn’t think about Williams and Splitter. I did think about Dame and Jrue. Nice catch. I also probably didn’t give Grant e enough respect.

 

[kjironman1]

I still want to see us continue to commit to our most likely championship window with Deni, Shae, Tou, Clingan and more at the trade deadline. Not taking a big step backwards but for me I don't care so much about how much playoff experience we have on the squad right now.

I'd get what we can in the way of young talent and picks for Jrue, Jerami and Rob and even Tisse if he has any value. Keep any of them if there isn't good value for them but if we can build a better team around that young core of players with the same championship window, I would like that.

Yeah I’m really interested in what they do this year. Most years trade deadline isn’t a big deal to me but watching where they go this year is going to say something.

Again I’m just not sure where the team sale situation is right now? It’s got to be a factor in some sense.

 

[noknobs]

Our roster right now does not have the talent to make any realistic run.

I totally disagree. If mostly healthy this team is deep and talented enough to make a run. The upside of all these injuries is it's forced Tiago to play the end of the bench and we've discovered a couple gems in Love/Sidy. Deni being our primary play-maker without all our point guards has seen him develop into an all-star. We haven't even seen Scoot yet and I think he'll surprise some people when he comes back.

Yes, next year we might be even better with Dame, but that doesn't mean we aren't good now. We've beaten OKC, Houston twice, the L*kers, the Spurs and Denver. Just about everyone we'd face in a potential first round match-up. Could we win a series, who knows, but I wouldn't automatically count us out.

 

[Everything Beagle]

I have noticed that. The team is respectful of the referees as a whole and it seems to be paying off. What I’m questioning is their overall lack of playoff experience other than Jrue and Dame. Take those two out and there aren’t a bunch of playoff minutes.

The biggest thing is they don’t play like they're only looking for whistles anymore. The players play through the contact and go for rebounds and really only Deni yells about non calls but it’s a lot less now than it was early in the season. We put a high quality sports product out on the court every night and I think the league appreciates that.