What should be done with Anfernee?

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I knew it all along. Check out my tag line next to my avatar. It has been there since his rookie year.
 
AldoTrapani said:
Damn this dude might be a little spendy come this summer. We might have a Gary Trent situation where we have no choice to trade him this deadline..

Are we really going to pay a lot of money to 4 guards under 6’4? (Dame, Cj, Powell, Ant)

Some crazy team might give Ant 80M for 4 years if they feel he could be their starting guard.

Wish we locked him in for cheap
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If the Blazers can duck the tax this year then they can avoid repeater next year.

If Ant keeps up his current production its an easy decision because he's worth matching a huge contract. The problem is if he has a bunch of struggles and we end up in another Allen Crabbe situation.

Yeah maybe if we resign him you trade one of CJ Powell Ant eventually, but there wouldn't be a rush to do it. The way 4 games have gone this year, Roco would only be a vet minimum guy so we free up that salary.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
If the Blazers can duck the tax this year then they can avoid repeater next year.

If Ant keeps up his current production its an easy decision because he's worth matching a huge contract. The problem is if he has a bunch of struggles and we end up in another Allen Crabbe situation.

Yeah maybe if we resign him you trade one of CJ Powell Ant eventually, but there wouldn't be a rush to do it. The way 4 games have gone this year, Roco would only be a vet minimum guy so we free up that salary.
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Makes sense but regardless a very tough situation and choices to make
 
We should trade Ant for that Melo dude on the Lakers.
 
I think Simons will be more valuable when his contract increases. Right now there are only so many players you can trade him for. So this CJ/Simons dilemma might not be solved until next year.
 
Hoopguru said:
At some point his asset value does start to decline, its not now but he's 31 years old with some wear and tear.
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I’d say Dame’s asset value is already declining. Asset value should peak a few years before a player actually peaks and Dame has probably already actually peaked.
 
Scalma said:
I think Simons will be more valuable when his contract increases. Right now there are only so many players you can trade him for. So this CJ/Simons dilemma might not be solved until next year.
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You could trade Simons and Roco now, their salaries can take back over $20 million.

I wouldn't call having CJ & Simons a dilemma... Seems like Blazer fans have a desire to trade player the instance they appear to become useful.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
You could trade Simons and Roco now, their salaries can take back over $20 million.

I wouldn't call having CJ & Simons a dilemma... Seems like Blazer fans have a desire to trade player the instance they appear to become useful.
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where is Simons going to get starter caliber minutes from when Powell is healthy? Because if he’s not getting that, you’re not utilizing him fully. Nevermind that he’s gonna get paid like a starter if he keeps playing even close to how he’s playing now. It’s just the reality.
 
Fun to read this thread. Started not even a year ago. The kid sure is young.
How much better can he get?
I’ll bet a year from now he’s better than today.
 
Ants numbers as a starter this season

21.6 PPG
5.8 APG
45% FG
41% 3PT

Steph came into the league at 21 and was an immediate starter. He has averaged just over 6 assists in his career and didn't have his first season averaging over 6 until he was 24. His first season averaging 20 points was at 24. His first all star game was at 25 (Dame was 23) Ant is 22 right now.

I'm not saying he is the next Steph, but hes the closest thing I've seen to him since. He's definitely getting the max
 
What a tasty thread.

crow.jpg
 
Screen Shot 2022-02-15 at 12.40.48 PM.png

This is the 5 year max for Simons? That scares me.
 
e_blazer said:
If you’ve looked at the most recent PER stats, the obvious solution is to keep CJ and Ant and trade Dame. ;)
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If you look at overall PER stats this season, our team sucks. Nurkic is our best and he’s 42nd in the league.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Fuck it, I say start him.

Hood isn't the future of this team. Either start Trent or Simons. preferably I'd like to start Trent because I want to know if he's starter material.
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Nice..... I'm a prophet!

Natebishop3 said:
Telfair, for all his faults, was still a true point guard.

Simons doesn't resemble anything even remotely similar to a point guard.
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Dammit..... ignore this part.
 
Scalma said:
Ants numbers as a starter this season

21.6 PPG
5.8 APG
45% FG
41% 3PT

Steph came into the league at 21 and was an immediate starter. He has averaged just over 6 assists in his career and didn't have his first season averaging over 6 until he was 24. His first season averaging 20 points was at 24. His first all star game was at 25 (Dame was 23) Ant is 22 right now.

I'm not saying he is the next Steph, but hes the closest thing I've seen to him since. He's definitely getting the max
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He might even have a quicker release on his jumper than Steph does…
 
Scalma said:
Ants numbers as a starter this season

21.6 PPG
5.8 APG
45% FG
41% 3PT

Steph came into the league at 21 and was an immediate starter. He has averaged just over 6 assists in his career and didn't have his first season averaging over 6 until he was 24. His first season averaging 20 points was at 24. His first all star game was at 25 (Dame was 23) Ant is 22 right now.

I'm not saying he is the next Steph, but hes the closest thing I've seen to him since. He's definitely getting the max
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I bet his numbers are better when CJ and Norm don’t play.
 
Holy shit, 2018 draft is gonna be an all-timer:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2018.html

Luka Doncic
Trae Young
DeAndre Ayton
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Michael Porter Jr.
Mikal Bridges
Miles Bridges
Anfernee Simons
Jalen Brunson
Robert Williams
Mitchell Robinson
Gary Trent Jr.
Collin Sexton

The number of starter+ level players in this draft just 4 years in is crazy.

Even the average picks are rotation or starter level players:

Wendell Carter Jr.
Jarred Vanderbilt
Donte Divencenzo
Grayson Allen
DeAnthony Melton
Shake Milton
Devonte Graham
 
e_blazer said:
Better yet, look at PER and realize it's a crappy stat.
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I don't think it's a crappy stat in gauging players who average 30 minutes or more. Look at the top-20:

upload_2022-2-15_15-23-13.png

I don't see any outliers there except for maybe Harrell; but he's 2nd to Gobert in TS% this season so his efficiency bumps his PER up. There's no stat noise in the top-20

I don't even think there is much noise in the next 20 PER rankings:

upload_2022-2-15_15-27-43.png

but you will start to see players with lower minutes (Love, Robinson) who probably shouldn't be ranked. I thin PER normalized for minutes is a decent stat, but only so far. Getting down around 25 minutes introduces too much variance. PER actually does a good job of matching eyeball tests for the top 40-50 players. Lower than that, not so much
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Yeah, I know already what most of you are going to say, but it's pretty clear that he has genuine talent, what's not clear is if he'll ever marshal it to be useful in the NBA.

The few times he's looked genuinely promising for us have been when he's been let off the leash and basically played the whole game. It seems to take him time to get in a groove. We also need to stop pretending that he's a PG. Granted, he's a fuck-ton closer to a PG than Gary Trent, who is basically a short stretch 4, with the dribbling skills to match, but that doesn't mean he should be tasked with running a team, because that's clearly not in his wheelhouse. He should be allowed to create for himself and occasionally dish to someone on the perimeter when the defense collapses. He's a poor-man's Allen Iverson, and the Sixers only started to use him right when they got Eric Snow and slid Iverson over to the 2.

But right now, even with CJ out, we have Hood and Trent slotted in at the 2, and because Simons can dribble better than either of them, he has backup PG duties, which is like using a sports car to tow a caravan. It's bad for all concerned. And he just seems to be regressing and losing any confidence he ever had.

EITHER: start him at the 2 and play him a bunch of minutes
OR: cut bait and see if there's some other GM who sees something in him like Isiah Thomas saw in Jermaine O'Neal. At this point I'd be happy to package him for George Hill. But I have this sneaking suspicion that if he ever finds the right environment and organization, they could develop him into at least a Lou Williams type.
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Or... maybe he IS a PG. Kudos to Anfernee for making great strides. He honestly didn't look like he could do it even a year ago, but now he's making really damn good passes and he's making the offense flow rather than just looking for his shot and then dumping it off if it's not there.

But he'll never be a good DEFENDER... (hee hee)
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Or... maybe he IS a PG. Kudos to Anfernee for making great strides. He honestly didn't look like he could do it even a year ago, but now he's making really damn good passes and he's making the offense flow rather than just looking for his shot and then dumping it off if it's not there.

But he'll never be a good DEFENDER... (hee hee)
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Good for you for admitting your miscalulation. I think he will become a good defender because he has Chauncey mentoring him AND he has unlimited energy. Simons often doesn't even look gassed after 38 minutes, just sweaty. Dame's big problem I believe has been Stotts and feeling drained after his Super Saiyan performances on the offensive end. He had to pull that energy from somewhere and that was defense which Stotts never really asked him to play. If Simons becomes an Average or better defender and so does Dame they could be the best back court in the league next year.
 
If
wizenheimer said:
I don't think it's a crappy stat in gauging players who average 30 minutes or more. Look at the top-20:

View attachment 45352

I don't see any outliers there except for maybe Harrell; but he's 2nd to Gobert in TS% this season so his efficiency bumps his PER up. There's no stat noise in the top-20

I don't even think there is much noise in the next 20 PER rankings:

View attachment 45353

but you will start to see players with lower minutes (Love, Robinson) who probably shouldn't be ranked. I thin PER normalized for minutes is a decent stat, but only so far. Getting down around 25 minutes introduces too much variance. PER actually does a good job of matching eyeball tests for the top 40-50 players. Lower than that, not so much
Click to expand...

Looking at that list, the players with high PER are almost exclusively good players on good teams. I suspect that PER isn’t as good at identifying good players on poor teams.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Or... maybe he IS a PG. Kudos to Anfernee for making great strides. He honestly didn't look like he could do it even a year ago, but now he's making really damn good passes and he's making the offense flow rather than just looking for his shot and then dumping it off if it's not there.

But he'll never be a good DEFENDER... (hee hee)
Click to expand...

and Kudos to you.
Respect.
 
e_blazer said:
If


Looking at that list, the players with high PER are almost exclusively good players on good teams. I suspect that PER isn’t as good at identifying good players on poor teams.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure that's accurate...maybe

KAT was 7th in 2019-20 when the Bulls were 19-45. The same season, Beal was 16th off of a 25-47 Wizards team
 
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