Which is More Significant: Finishing 3rd in the West or the Playoff Sweep?

[e_blazer]

I think where I’d say Stotts got out coached and maybe it’s on the roster too, was they needed to find creative ways to get Dame good shots, get him some space. Not run him into another PNR with Nurk or Ed where he’d get stuck with two defenders all over him. Like I said I know part of it is is roster, but A they should’ve attacked the basket more instead of jacking up 3’s and B just get Dame off the ball make Holiday and Rondo chase him around screens.

I don't disagree with a lot of that. I don't think Terry and his staff did a good job of adjusting to what the Pelicans were doing, but in their defense, it's pretty tough to completely redesign an offense in the middle of a playoff series. I also think that the Pelicans saw a weakness in the Blazers' lack of consistent shooters and knew that it was better to have the likes of Ed Davis or Zach Collins taking a shot than Damian Lillard.

 

[chzbrgr]

One thing no one has mentioned was Ed's performance in the NOP series. Not just his individual performance, but how and when he was used and how it impacted the team's performance.

Ed was a fan favorite, highly respected by his teammates and the front office, but the more I think about that NOP series, the more I understand the team's decision to let Ed go.

Yes, Ed is a great rebounder and flat out plays his ass off. I respect that, but I also respected the effort and energy Mason Plumlee brought every minute he was on the floor. I love great effort, but without talent to go with it, effort will only get you so far. And Ed, like Plums has ZERO offensive game beyond 3 feet from the basket. As much as I appreciated Plums, I'd have to be blind to not see how much better this team is at both ends of the floor with Nurk in his place.

Look at Ed's advanced stats from the NOP series:

View attachment 21919
View attachment 21918

Just look at his OBPM! -11.4 is atrocious (of the rotation players, ET was second worst at -5.1). When you are not a scoring threat, the other team is free to double team Dame with impunity - which is exactly what NOP did.

I don't so much blame Ed (he is what he is) as I blame Stotts for this. Every time NOP "went small" Stotts countered by pulling Nurk and inserting Ed. I absolutely hate this reactionary style of coaching. Stotts did the same thing against HOU earlier in the season. The Blazers blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead, got outscored 40-19 in the 4th quarter and lost a game they should have won EASILY. To me, going small when your proponent does is a defeatist strategy. You're not going to beat your opponent by playing to their strengths. You're not going to out small ball GSW, HOU, or even NOP.

Don't let your opponents force your hand. They want to go small, fine use Nurk to punish them on the low blocks. Forget the high pick and role with Nurk screening for Dame. All that does is bring another defender out from under the basket to trap Dame. Nope, plant Nurk's massive Bosian ass on the low block and force NOP to either keep Anthony Davis as far away from Damina Lillard as possible, or abuse the shit out of them if they attempt to guard Nurk with a smaller player.

With Ed in the game (he played almost as many minutes as Nurk), NOP was free to double off of him and leave him unguarded without consequence. The fact that Stotts didn't see this and kept playing right into NOP's hand pissed me off to no end. It was all too reminiscent of Alvin Gentry owning Nate McMillan by putting Grant Hill on Andre Miller and letting them hide Steve Nash on Nic Batum.

Yeah, Ed is a great guy and a hell of a rebounder (a skill I value), but his lack of offensive talent (and the way he was used) played a big role in that 1st round sweep. His minutes will go to Zach Collins. Now, we just need to hope Collins lives up to his potential on the offensive end. More than ever, in today's game, you need 2-way role players. The days of 1-way specialists are over. I believe the potential to be above average at both ends is why POR gave up two 1st round picks to move up to take Collins. I also believe it's why they didn't even attempt to resign Ed Davis.

BNM

I agree with your analysis 100%. What makes me so pessimistic about the future is how god awful Collins has been on offense across the board. If the days of one way specialists are done like you say (and I agree they are) Collins likely is not the future for us up front.

 

[H.C.]

Sure, if out-coached means failing to have a player on the roster who matches up well with Anthony Davis, or who is a strong enough scorer to keep Davis from being able to double on Dame every time down the court.

It only came off the p&r though. When Lillard isolated against Jrue or Rondo he got an easy look.
I remember getting animated about this in game 3&4.

Stotts was so focused on running his game plan of hoping AD was too tired in the 4th to make plays. That he forgot his job is to make your best players job easier.
Yes the roster didn't have the shooting reqyired to stop the pelicans from loading up on the p&r. So maybe go away from that and run iso or action off the ball
Nards sets giant screens. Let him lay some wood on Jrue &Rondo setting off the ball screens.
But ffs stop playing to the Pelicans strength. Stop playing to the strength of the best p&r big in the game today.

Stotts was out coached.
And that's coming from someone who believes Stotts is the best coach Portland has had since adelman

 

[riverman]

I think between Collins, Biggy and Meyers we'll make up for Ed's numbers. Collins just had his nose broken before summer league...I think it probably hurt him all through the series. Coaches said he didn't miss many shots in scrimmages before the nose pizza...he shoots with confidence. He did that in college as well. Kid knows how to play....Biggy has a nose for rebounds and sets solid screens...can shoot as well. Meyers will rebound and get you some buckets...I think we'll survive Ed being in Brooklyn

 

[Boob-No-More]

I think between Collins, Biggy and Meyers we'll make up for Ed's numbers. Collins just had his nose broken before summer league...I think it probably hurt him all through the series. Coaches said he didn't miss many shots in scrimmages before the nose pizza...he shoots with confidence. He did that in college as well. Kid knows how to play....Biggy has a nose for rebounds and sets solid screens...can shoot as well. Meyers will rebound and get you some buckets...I think we'll survive Ed being in Brooklyn

Collins has a good shot and some good low post moves. My concern is he seems to have hands of stone when it comes to catching a pass. I'm hoping that was due to the mask in summer league screwing with his vision, combined with things happening too fast for him during his rookie year (i.e. trying to start his move before actually catching the ball). I hope as the game slows down for him and the nerves subside, he'll do a better job of catching the damn ball.

Meyer's for all his many other faults, actually has great hands for a big man. He really is an enigma. So many physical gifts, so little feel for the game.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

I agree with your analysis 100%. What makes me so pessimistic about the future is how god awful Collins has been on offense across the board. If the days of one way specialists are done like you say (and I agree they are) Collins likely is not the future for us up front.

The guy still can't legally buy beer. Too soon to give up on him.

He seems like a natural and very fluid with great instincts and timing on defense. On offense, he still seems like a total spazz. The game hasn't slowed down for him yet on that end. He seems to panic at the mere thought of catching the ball. Hopefully, that will change, because he has elite defensive skills, which is very rare in a 20-year old big man.

BNM

 

[Wizard Mentor]

One thing no one has mentioned was Ed's performance in the NOP series. Not just his individual performance, but how and when he was used and how it impacted the team's performance.

Ed was a fan favorite, highly respected by his teammates and the front office, but the more I think about that NOP series, the more I understand the team's decision to let Ed go.

Yes, Ed is a great rebounder and flat out plays his ass off. I respect that, but I also respected the effort and energy Mason Plumlee brought every minute he was on the floor. I love great effort, but without talent to go with it, effort will only get you so far. And Ed, like Plums has ZERO offensive game beyond 3 feet from the basket. As much as I appreciated Plums, I'd have to be blind to not see how much better this team is at both ends of the floor with Nurk in his place.

Look at Ed's advanced stats from the NOP series:

View attachment 21919
View attachment 21918

Just look at his OBPM! -11.4 is atrocious (of the rotation players, ET was second worst at -5.1). When you are not a scoring threat, the other team is free to double team Dame with impunity - which is exactly what NOP did.

I don't so much blame Ed (he is what he is) as I blame Stotts for this. Every time NOP "went small" Stotts countered by pulling Nurk and inserting Ed. I absolutely hate this reactionary style of coaching. Stotts did the same thing against HOU earlier in the season. The Blazers blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead, got outscored 40-19 in the 4th quarter and lost a game they should have won EASILY. To me, going small when your proponent does is a defeatist strategy. You're not going to beat your opponent by playing to their strengths. You're not going to out small ball GSW, HOU, or even NOP.

Don't let your opponents force your hand. They want to go small, fine use Nurk to punish them on the low blocks. Forget the high pick and role with Nurk screening for Dame. All that does is bring another defender out from under the basket to trap Dame. Nope, plant Nurk's massive Bosian ass on the low block and force NOP to either keep Anthony Davis as far away from Damina Lillard as possible, or abuse the shit out of them if they attempt to guard Nurk with a smaller player.

With Ed in the game (he played almost as many minutes as Nurk), NOP was free to double off of him and leave him unguarded without consequence. The fact that Stotts didn't see this and kept playing right into NOP's hand pissed me off to no end. It was all too reminiscent of Alvin Gentry owning Nate McMillan by putting Grant Hill on Andre Miller and letting them hide Steve Nash on Nic Batum.

Yeah, Ed is a great guy and a hell of a rebounder (a skill I value), but his lack of offensive talent (and the way he was used) played a big role in that 1st round sweep. His minutes will go to Zach Collins. Now, we just need to hope Collins lives up to his potential on the offensive end. More than ever, in today's game, you need 2-way role players. The days of 1-way specialists are over. I believe the potential to be above average at both ends is why POR gave up two 1st round picks to move up to take Collins. I also believe it's why they didn't even attempt to resign Ed Davis.

BNM

Agreed, but my concern is with depth. Replacing Ed with a more well rounded player makes sense. Replacing him with no one does not.

One slight nitpick... it IS Davis's fault. Most everyone needs to be able to shoot in the modern NBA. Instead of gaining 20 lbs. of muscle in the offseason, he should have concentrated on improving his shot.

 

[Hoopguru]

With GSW and Houston projecting to get to 60 or close to it this year.
+ The West still being competitive, and even more so with the Spurs having a second star player again...(It's Pop he'll figure it out)
I have my doubts that anyone outside of GSW/Houston will be hitting that 50 win mark.
45-49 is where I suspect 3-12 to land.



So what you're saying is Stotts was out coached.

I agree. Any team in the West that can win 49 like we did last year, is pretty commendable.
And if we hit 50 this year (I'm going w/51) that will be even more impressive.

 

[e_blazer]

I also agree that Pelicans were a bad matchup but you must try to build a team that won’t be able to say something like this against anyone let alone a middle tier team like New Orleans. You should be equipped to face all of those teams and not get swept like that. Properly good teams have no such thing as ‘terrible matchups’, they might find it easier against certain teams and tougher against others but not to this extreme.

Of course teams have matchups that are tougher for them than others. The Blazers matched up well with the Warriors (won 2 out of 3 games) and the Thunder (swept them) last season. The Pelicans just happen to have players that we don't match up well with. Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday are really good defenders and scorers and that combination just happened to be the Blazers' version of kryptonite. That said, I agree completely with BNM and others that Stotts played into that problem by not adjusting well to what the Pelicans were doing.

Look, the Blazers are three years into a major retooling of their roster. I think we're all in agreement that Olshey screwed up the Summer of 2016 with the bloated contracts that he handed out to the wrong guys. There are holes in this roster that no amount of coaching will fix. Olshey did his best this summer to patch the deficiencies the Pelicans exploited by bringing in young three point shooters and elevating Collins's role in the front line roster because he's a better scorer than Ed Davis was. It would have been nice to see the Blazers find an established guy or two to address those problems, but that's just not reality when your salary cap is weighed down with ET's, Meyers's, and Harkless's contracts.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Agreed, but my concern is with depth. Replacing Ed with a more well rounded player makes sense. Replacing him with no one does not.

One slight nitpick... it IS Davis's fault. Most everyone needs to be able to shoot in the modern NBA. Instead of gaining 20 lbs. of muscle in the offseason, he should have concentrated on improving his shot.

We drafted two replacements last summer. We held onto Ed long enough to make sure at least one of them can (hopefully) replace him.

He did shoot a career high on FT%, but it was still not good and was on a career low number of attempts per game. It's bad enough when you can't shoot from beyond 3 feet, but it's even worse when you can't make the opposition pay for fouling you within 3 feet either.

I liked Ed, but he would have been much more valuable if he could have kept opposing defenses honest. Ed was in POR for three full seasons and his average made FG distance was 2.3 feet.

BNM

 

[blazerkor]

It's important that we made the playoffs but with that said, a season that ends in the playoffs should be judged by the playoffs. We got swept in the first round. That's as bad as it could get. While I don't think the team needs to overreact and blow the roster up, it should take a long hard look at it's roster and try to make the team more ready to contend in the playoffs. The truth is our two best players are redundant and the only way to change that is to trade one of them. I'd try to get the best value for CJ. I don't think Neil is going to do that, so we'll have another year of Dame and CJ pounding the rock, another year of shots late in the shot clock and another year of very few assists. I do think we'll also have another year in which the team makes the playoffs. That being said we will ultimately get let down again because playoff success is the ruler and we won't measure up to what we want, which is wins in the playoffs.

 

[e_blazer]

It's important that we made the playoffs but with that said, a season that ends in the playoffs should be judged by the playoffs. We got swept in the first round. That's as bad as it could get. While I don't think the team needs to overreact and blow the roster up, it should take a long hard look at it's roster and try to make the team more ready to contend in the playoffs. The truth is our two best players are redundant and the only way to change that is to trade one of them. I'd try to get the best value for CJ. I don't think Neil is going to do that, so we'll have another year of Dame and CJ pounding the rock, another year of shots late in the shot clock and another year of very few assists. I do think we'll also have another year in which the team makes the playoffs. That being said we will ultimately get let down again because playoff success is the ruler and we won't measure up to what we want, which is wins in the playoffs.

You aren't going to get many assists when your best scorers are at the guard spots and everyone else is pretty much meh. That's why the Rockets averaged less than two more assists per game than the Blazers. By record and by the fact that they were ready to eliminate the Warriors until Chris Paul went down, the Rockets were the best team in the league last year.

 

[blazerkor]

You aren't going to get many assists when your best scorers are at the guard spots and everyone else is pretty much meh. That's why the Rockets averaged less than two more assists per game than the Blazers. By record and by the fact that they were ready to eliminate the Warriors until Chris Paul went down, the Rockets were the best team in the league last year.

So you are in the camp of keeping Dame and CJ together?

 

[e_blazer]

So you are in the camp of keeping Dame and CJ together?

I'm in the camp of being okay with trading CJ, but only for equivalent value at a position of need. Frankly, I think this whole discussion of Dame and CJ is bass-ackwards. I don't believe in the notion of deciding who you want to get rid of and then looking for a deal. I think you should target who you want to get and then put together an offer that will entice the other team to make the deal. Find a quality PF or SF, or another All-Star caliber SG that you think is better than CJ, and then see if the Blazers have the right components to offer that will make the trade possible.

 

[BonesJones]

To be honest i'm not on the "Zach Collins hype" anymore, what i saw from him on Summer League was pretty dissapointing, i expected him to be much better offensively, but his Shooting still sucks, and i know the History from our big mans the last few years. Meyers = shouldn't be on an nba court, Nurkic = was great when he came, after a Full Season he looked worse than before, Noah Vonleh = Never improved in all those years in Portland, Swanigan = doubt he will have a long Career in the NBA, to slow, undersized for a big man, can't defend guards or wings, inefficeny shooting, only nba skill is rebounding... I do not expect Collins to be a Offensive threat in the Next years, but hopefully i'm wrong and he makes a big jump

He was the best defender in summer league, and showed he showed he still needed more strength to post up effectively. And now you're off the "hype train"? Goodness gracious.

 

[BonesJones]

It's important to note that all 20+ analysts on ESPN.com picked us to win our first round series. And Lillard was 4th in MVP voting. But now, because we got swept in the first round, they think we're only going to win 41 games. That doesn't make sense.

Yeah, they always pick the top seed. How stupid were they? That doesn't mean anything dude. Didn't mean anything when eberyone picked us to lose to the Rockets or Clippers.

 

[BonesJones]

The Blazers are Damian Lillard's team. The Pelicans were able to cut Dame's production from 26.9 ppg in the regular season to an average of 18.5 ppg in the 4 game series. Everyone else pretty much did their usual work, but those 8.4 ppg of lost production from Dame killed the Blazers. The Pelicans were all-in on shutting Dame down and it worked. No other team was able to accomplish that kind of a hit on Dame's production all season despite every coach game planning for him. No other team had Anthony Davis to make that defensive scheme work. In my view, it's pretty much that simple.

No other team thought that we wouldn't be able to adjust to such a sellout trap.

 

[BonesJones]

What about POR's 13 game winning streak made it improbable? Was is the only improbable winning streak in the NW division, or were all the other winning streaks probable? Was UTA winning 11 in a row and 19 of 21 any more or less improbable? NOP's 10 game winning streak after Boogie went down? How probable was that?

I get so tired of people poo pooing the Blazers winning streak like it didn't actually happen or they didn't deserve those wins. Every win counts in the standings, but it's almost like people would place more value on those 13 wins if there were a couple losses sprinkled in to give those wins some added credibility.

They beat some very good teams during that streak including GSW twice - once at full strength. They also broke UTA's 11 game winning streak by beating them by 19 on their home court.

BNM.

Nobody's doing that, but if you can use losing a few games down the stretch as a positive because we still made the playoffs, then similar one-sided logic would say that the 13 game winning streak is a negative because we barely made playoffs. It's a point about how silly it is to use the fact thatg "we lost a couple games down the stretch" as a positive.

 

[e_blazer]

No other team thought that we wouldn't be able to adjust to such a sellout trap.

Maybe, but you also have to trust that your big can cover enough territory quickly enough to get back to his man if Dame tosses the ball to them. Davis is quick enough. Not many other guys are.

 

[chzbrgr]

Agreed, but my concern is with depth. Replacing Ed with a more well rounded player makes sense. Replacing him with no one does not.

One slight nitpick... it IS Davis's fault. Most everyone needs to be able to shoot in the modern NBA. Instead of gaining 20 lbs. of muscle in the offseason, he should have concentrated on improving his shot.

Some players are good shooters some players just aren’t. You gotta make the most of the gifts you’re given which ed has done in spades so I have zero blame for him not being able to develop a consistent jumper.

Blake griffin is a great example of developing a shot from nothing and it not really helping him much. Most would say he should shoot less from midrange and out not more.

 

[BonesJones]

Maybe, but you also have to trust that your big can cover enough territory quickly enough to get back to his man if Dame tosses the ball to them. Davis is quick enough. Not many other guys are.

Things we could've done:
- Run more side pick n roll (can't trap off a roll guy there so there's no one on his side of the floor to recover) - this actually worked the couple of times we did it.
- Run lower top pick n roll so Dame has options to relieve pressure
- Run in transition so they cant set up and trap (maybe play more aggressive defense to try to create those opportunities),
- Use Dame and CJ off the ball more especially utilizing them in off-ball screens (harder to trap),
- Let Dame ISO a little bit more where he can go 1 on 1 instead of 1 on 2,
- Or simply use more ball/player movement to relieve and beat the over-pressuring defense.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Nobody's doing that...

Yeah, actually they are. Calling the winning streak improbable diminishes those wins just as much as @KingSpeed minimizes the losses down the stretch.

but if you can use losing a few games down the stretch as a positive

He's not doing that. He's saying we had a good enough record before those losses that they didn't negatively impact our seeding.

POR won 49 games and they won the games they needed to win to clinch the 3rd seed - like the season finale over UTA. It doesn't matter whether those 13 wins were in a row, or 13 equally spaced victories. They all count the same in the final standings.

All this talk about how UTA would have finished ahead of us if Gobert hadn't been injured is straight up bullshit. The fact is, he was injured, just like he has been in 3 of his 5 NBA seasons. If you build your team around injury prone players, you have to accept that they will miss games (see Greg Oden and Brandon Roy). There are no mulligans. And, even with Gobert and a healthy roster, UTA couldn't come close to beating POR when they needed to. In our last two head to head games we trounced UTA by a combined 28 points.

You don't like Eric minimizing our losses, I feel the same way about posters calling our wins "improbable". There is no probability involved. You either win the games or you don't. POR did - enough to EARN the 3rd seed in a very competitive Western Conference.

BNM

 

[HailBlazers]

We are still rebuilding. Sustained success and slow improvement is more important than a particular playoff match-up outcome. Look how our Defense improved last year, if we can keep a TOP 10 defense and get our Offense consistently up to Snuff we'll be in great position to trade or pick up that third Star.

 

[BonesJones]

Yeah, actually they are. Calling the winning streak improbable diminishes those wins just as much as @KingSpeed minimizes the losses down the stretch.



He's not doing that. He's saying we had a good enough record before those losses that they didn't negatively impact our seeding.

POR won 49 games and they won the games they needed to win to clinch the 3rd seed - like the season finale over UTA. It doesn't matter whether those 13 wins were in a row, or 13 equally spaced victories. They all count the same in the final standings.

All this talk about how UTA would have finished ahead of us if Gobert hadn't been injured is straight up bullshit. The fact is, he was injured, just like he has been in 3 of his 5 NBA seasons. If you build your team around injury prone players, you have to accept that they will miss games (see Greg Oden and Brandon Roy). There are no mulligans. And, even with Gobert and a healthy roster, UTA couldn't come close to beating POR when they needed to. In our last two head to head games we trounced UTA by a combined 28 points.

You don't like Eric minimizing our losses, I feel the same way about posters calling our wins "improbable". There is no probability involved. You either win the games or you don't. POR did - enough to EARN the 3rd seed in a very competitive Western Conference.

BNM

That's exactly my point, you can't use the "we still got the 3 seed even though we lost games down the stretch" argument. Doesn't matter when those losses came, you gotta look at the whole picture.

Also, Nurkic has been as injury prone as Gobert, so yes, we did get lucky.

 

[tlongII]

Neither.

 

[BonesJones]

We are still rebuilding. Sustained success and slow improvement is more important than a particular playoff match-up outcome. Look how our Defense improved last year, if we can keep a TOP 10 defense and get our Offense consistently up to Snuff we'll be in great position to trade or pick up that third Star.

No were not.

Rebuilding teams are non-playoff teams that aim for top picks and are willing to trade good talent for young prospects, picks, and cash savings. We are none of those things.

Sustained improvement is important, in regards to post-season ball. We haven't improved at all in that area. Toronto consistently improved in the regular season, but never in the playoffs.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Anyone who voted 49 wins should give up their fan card, IMO. Playoffs are all that matter, and we sucked.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Anyone who places all importance on the playoffs should hang up their fan card, IMO. If 4 games render 82 completely irrelevant, then what joy can you possibly derive from any of the regular season, since it's all meaningless anyway?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Any mod who disagrees with me should hang up their fan card, IMO.

 

[riverman]

You guys got fan cards?