With the #7 pick, the Portland Trail Blazers select.... (1 Viewer)

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MrDraftGuy said:
Sharpe @#7.

As someone who selected Gobert and Giannis in 2013, I see Sharpe as being a similar impact player that GMs will later regret not picking up when they had an opportunity.

I think Mathurin and Murray will be good to very good but not great. You want to draft great. It's no surprise to see a Sam Presti salivating over Ivey and Sharpe whereas inexperienced/lesser front offices are not. It would seem Masai is looking at Sharpe, as well, if he's asking for Portland's pick. Let's think logically here....if these two guys who have GREAT track records want Portland's pick, who do you think is the one who is going to get fleeced?

In other words, DO NOT trade the pick for OG. Speaking as someone who also spotted OG back in 2017 and had Portland selecting him at #20, OG will command money in two years and Portland will be without a future. Whereas, if Sharpe develops into a 20+ppg threat who can get his own shot up and command double teams? That's the future and that's a player who will be better than OG.
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I trust your judgement on Amen.
 
BankTeller said:
I trust your judgement on Amen.
Click to expand...

Well, shoot, now I feel like there are super high expectations now haha. What if I do get it wrong?

Certainly, maybe because Portland was involved in last year's draft, I ended up heavily studying last year's draft and I think, perhaps...it allowed me to land more hits than misses (ex. Sharpe)? I don't know. The future still holds a lot of questions.

For reference, here is what I wrote last year (trying not to dox myself but trying to showcase that these were, in fact, written and not edited whatsoever....I suppose I can even record a video as proof, if anyone doesn't trust me).

And this post isn't to toot my own horn but ever since I recognized Giannis back in 2013, I've been trying to study NBA prospects and see what works and attempt to crack some code. People often just view the draft as a crapshoot but I find that a lazy way of viewing things. People like Jerry West or Sam Presti seem to be able to discern between the great players, the good ones, and the average ones at a high success rate so I want to know what pattern recognition process exist in their minds to able to think like they do and to develop my own pattern recognition skills. That's what this is.

And I'm going to use my most recent analysis as a measuring point towards this latest draft (will put that one down later).

Anyway, here is what I saw:

This is NOT a big board btw. I absolutely hate Big Boards because they don't have full context and attempt to rank all players when only half will probably have a long career in the NBA.

Part 1: https://i.imgur.com/TErA8NV.png

That draft analysis was written before Sharpe made a huge impression on me (June 1st) so it's not as flattering as it can be and I viewed him as a combo guard, which he was more of in high school, rather than a SG. By the time I made the comments on S2 (2-3 weeks later as per your quote), he had become an amazing SG prospect to me to where I saw him as having a Wade/McGrady type ceiling and as someone who can match Dame in terms of starpower.

Here's a few other comments I made later as proof, as well:

Comment 1: https://i.imgur.com/p8ql28Y.png

Comment 2: https://i.imgur.com/YNMWzGE.png

Otherwise, I feel like some of the other analysis were on point. Here's the Banchero analysis:

Of the Top 4, I feel he is the most NBA ready while also having the "Bus Driver" mentality that helps lead teams deep into the playoff. He wants to be the guy and he has all the tools to get there. The bully ball that he relied on in college isn't going to have as big of an impact in the NBA against much bigger and stronger defenders. In that case, he's going to drive it in, hit mid-range shots, move off the ball, facilitate the ball, and go for second chance points. All this, he can do. Defensively, I don't think he's as bad as people make him out to be, either.

I predict a Blake Griffin-Paul Pierce-Carmelo Anthony type trajectory for Banchero. Maybe not an MVP but the face of a franchise and the leader on a contending team.
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Was pleasantly surprised that he got taken #1, where I always felt he belonged. I really thought Paul Pierce was a good comparison that practically nobody else pointed out and very few people still point out. Also, people were quick to point out his defense was going to suck but....I was always confused because I never felt that way and so far, he has shown flashes of being a decent defender.

Jabari Smith Jr, I said had the most potential of being a bust out of the Top 4 projected picks. The jury is still out on him. He could still have a Rashard Lewis or Glen Rice type career.....but there doesn't seem to be precedence of him being Reggie Miller, Klay Thompson, Ray Allen, Larry Bird, etc since all those guys were 37ish% 3pt shooters from the get go.

Part 2: https://i.imgur.com/PbyJrjV.png

Johnny Davis, I might be fucking wrong on LOL. He actually did have a solid end to the season, once he got minutes. If he's anything like the Michael Redd comparison I gave him, it'll take a few years for him to show up. I think there's still potential there. If not, I may have overlooked some things....people were citing his lack of athleticism and burst of speed......of which actually aren't his problems in the NBA. His problem is lack of efficiency. The buckets just aren't going down.

Jalen Duren:

Traditional centers who have 12+/8.4+ per 28 minutes on 55+ FG% during their freshmen years while playing quality minutes....have all become elite centers, historically speaking. From Sampson to Hakeem to Robinson to Shaq to Cousins to Embiid to KAT. Even Ayton and Wendell Carter Jr. are slowly proving this to be true. Robert Williams showcasing this, as well. We'll see if this holds up but Duren has achieved this feat and naturally, he has drawn comparisons to Dwight Howard and Bam Adebayo. His offensive game is raw and I don't think it'll improve that much more but I do think he'll be a force to be reckoned with down low, especially once he reaches his prime years.

Don't expect the next Embiid or Jokic but rather, take Duren if you want a good chance at All-Star quality center. He's good for rebuilding teams, essentially.
Click to expand...

So far, I'm correct on spotting Jalen Duren, based on this metric and on the eye test. He was a no brainer, to me.

That said, I've been putting this stat out there.....and I'm incorrect. Mo Bamba also met this but has been kinda trash in the NBA. Offensively, Bamba is statistically good but defensively and most importantly, from a work ethic standpoint, he has stunk. Work ethic matters.

Keegan Murray, I think that Tobias Harris comparison may be apt? We shall see.

Part 3: https://i.imgur.com/TqFWHlL.png

Tari Eason - Eason has some questionable decision making but for that, he'll give heart and a quick burst of energy to any team that drafts him. Furthermore, his frame is fantastic and similar to wings like Kawhi, Siakam, Gerald Wallace. I see sixth man of the year potential written all over him (at least, on a contending team). On a top contending team, that could potentially earn him an All-Star berth.

A taller Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Morris, Mikal Bridges, Rui Hachimura.
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I think this is accurate. That frame threshhold, btw, seems to hold up very well for first round caliber wing/forwards. Masai scale is what some call it. 6'8" with 7'2" wingspan and around a 9' hand. Kawhi, Siakam, Giannis (who Masai wanted), Ingram, KD, Scottie Pippen, Scottie Barnes, Terrence Jones had potential (Per 36 numbers-wise) until his injury in the fourth season, Obi Toppin might have that potential (per 36-wise, I guess he does), Nic Batum, Rui Hachimura.

As far as I can tell, this scale hasn't really failed in the modern NBA (last 10-15 years). You'll get a solid wing/forward type player at minimum.

Leonard Miller meets this threshhold, btw. And so does Jarace Walker....IF he ends up becoming a wing/forward and not a power forward/center.

Here's Kessler:

He has good defensive instincts, a tall frame, and some decent footwork, as well as a good IQ. He'll need to work on his jumpshot but the potential for a high caliber starting center is there.

I anticipate a less defensive/more offensive Rudy Gobert.
Click to expand...

Well, so far, he actually looks like an equally defensive and more offensive Rudy Gobert. Does that mean I'm wrong lol?

Was not able to spot Jalen Williams. I don't know if I can spot the next Jalen William, either. Maybe Gradey Dick? Either way, I have not developed this capability yet.

I will say, though, that Jalen Williams brother, Cody Williams of the 2024 draft, intrigues me. It's possible Cody Williams might be better than Jalen Williams, too.
 
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MrDraftGuy said:
Well, shoot, now I feel like there are super high expectations now haha. What if I do get it wrong?

Certainly, maybe because Portland was involved in last year's draft, I ended up heavily studying last year's draft and I think, perhaps...it allowed me to land more hits than misses (ex. Sharpe)? I don't know. The future still holds a lot of questions.

For reference, here is what I wrote last year (trying not to dox myself but trying to showcase that these were, in fact, written and not edited whatsoever....I suppose I can even record a video as proof, if anyone doesn't trust me).

And this post isn't to toot my own horn but ever since I recognized Giannis back in 2013, I've been trying to study NBA prospects and see what works and attempt to crack some code. People often just view the draft as a crapshoot but I find that a lazy way of viewing things. People like Jerry West or Sam Presti seem to be able to discern between the great players, the good ones, and the average ones at a high success rate so I want to know what pattern recognition process exist in their minds to able to think like they do and to develop my own pattern recognition skills. That's what this is.

And I'm going to use my most recent analysis as a measuring point towards this latest draft (will put that one down later).

Anyway, here is what I saw:

This is NOT a big board btw. I absolutely hate Big Boards because they don't have full context and attempt to rank all players when only half will probably have a long career in the NBA.

Part 1: https://i.imgur.com/TErA8NV.png

That draft analysis was written before Sharpe made a huge impression on me (June 1st) so it's not as flattering as it can be and I viewed him as a combo guard, which he was more of in high school, rather than a SG. By the time I made the comments on S2 (2-3 weeks later as per your quote), he had become an amazing SG prospect to me to where I saw him as having a Wade/McGrady type ceiling and as someone who can match Dame in terms of starpower.

Here's a few other comments I made later as proof, as well:

Comment 1: https://i.imgur.com/p8ql28Y.png

Comment 2: https://i.imgur.com/YNMWzGE.png

Otherwise, I feel like some of the other analysis were on point. Here's the Banchero analysis:



Was pleasantly surprised that he got taken #1, where I always felt he belonged. I really thought Paul Pierce was a good comparison that practically nobody else pointed out and very few people still point out. Also, people were quick to point out his defense was going to suck but....I was always confused because I never felt that way and so far, he has shown flashes of being a decent defender.

Jabari Smith Jr, I said had the most potential of being a bust out of the Top 4 projected picks. The jury is still out on him. He could still have a Rashard Lewis or Glen Rice type career.....but there doesn't seem to be precedence of him being Reggie Miller, Klay Thompson, Ray Allen, Larry Bird, etc since all those guys were 37ish% 3pt shooters from the get go.

Part 2: https://i.imgur.com/PbyJrjV.png

Johnny Davis, I might be fucking wrong on LOL. He actually did have a solid end to the season, once he got minutes. If he's anything like the Michael Redd comparison I gave him, it'll take a few years for him to show up. I think there's still potential there. If not, I may have overlooked some things....people were citing his lack of athleticism and burst of speed......of which actually aren't his problems in the NBA. His problem is lack of efficiency. The buckets just aren't going down.

Jalen Duren:



So far, I'm correct on spotting Jalen Duren, based on this metric and on the eye test. He was a no brainer, to me.

That said, I've been putting this stat out there.....and I'm incorrect. Mo Bamba also met this but has been kinda trash in the NBA. Offensively, Bamba is statistically good but defensively and most importantly, from a work ethic standpoint, he has stunk. Work ethic matters.

Keegan Murray, I think that Tobias Harris comparison may be apt? We shall see.

Part 3: https://i.imgur.com/TqFWHlL.png



I think this is accurate. That frame threshhold, btw, seems to hold up very well for first round caliber wing/forwards. Masai scale is what some call it. 6'8" with 7'2" wingspan and around a 9' hand. Kawhi, Siakam, Giannis (who Masai wanted), Ingram, KD, Scottie Pippen, Scottie Barnes, Terrence Jones had potential (Per 36 numbers-wise) until his injury in the fourth season, Obi Toppin might have that potential (per 36-wise, I guess he does), Nic Batum, Rui Hachimura.

As far as I can tell, this scale hasn't really failed in the modern NBA (last 10-15 years). You'll get a solid wing/forward type player at minimum.

Leonard Miller meets this threshhold, btw. And so does Jarace Walker....IF he ends up becoming a wing/forward and not a power forward/center.

Here's Kessler:



Well, so far, he actually looks like an equally defensive and more offensive Rudy Gobert. Does that mean I'm wrong lol?

Was not able to spot Jalen Williams. I don't know if I can spot the next Jalen William, either. Maybe Gradey Dick? Either way, I have not developed this capability yet.

I will say, though, that Jalen Williams brother, Cody Williams of the 2024 draft, intrigues me. It's possible Cody Williams might be better than Jalen Williams, too.
Click to expand...
Well if you're wrong on Amen, I'm wrong on Amen. I might be one of the few people here who love Amen more than you do lol.

I'm also a big NBA Draft guy. I'm probably more interested in team building than the actual NBA season if I'm being honest.

Interesting Cody Williams bit. 6'8 PG? Probably going in the lotto considering Jalen's rookie year will still be in everyone's minds and he'll have the PG reputation if he plays well enough next year.
 
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