Zach Collins and his return to the Blazers: ‘I’m definitely not rushing back’

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I'll settle the issue. Olshey greatly overestimated both Leonard and Collins. The former lacks the mind of an athlete. The latter is a career substitute, so he's better, which isn't saying much. I agree with this amount for Collins this summer:

Tince said:
I'd do 2 years, 10 million, incentive based, 2nd year team option. Not sure if that's allowed, but that's my number!
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But Olshey wouldn't cut bait after 1 year. He never recognizes a bad situation.
 
Zach's QO is just under 8 million. Look for an offer of 8-10 million for 4 years. $40 million. If a team wants to go $14-15 million (56-60 million) and front load it making it a "Toxic offer" then the Blazers will lose Zach. Business is Business.
 
kjironman1 said:
Zach's QO is just under 8 million. Look for an offer of 8-10 million for 4 years. $40 million. If a team wants to go $14-15 million (56-60 million) and front load it making it a "Toxic offer" then the Blazers will lose Zach. Business is Business.
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Ha ha! And Olshey will do it! I'm crying as I laugh!
 
kjironman1 said:
Well i guess if Meyers was (Wasn't) worth $40 million in 2016 then Zach could be worth $40 million in 2021?
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Remember how everyone was AGHAST that after years of us criticizing Olshey for not trading the uncoordinated slow-learner Leonard, Olshey offered him a huge $40M! Then we were DOUBLE aghast as Leonard turned it down, gambling that he could make even more, if he greatly improved that season, which everyone except him and Olshey knew would not happen! All the next downhill season as the pinhead sucked even worse instead of impressing other GMs, Leonard sadly said he regretted not taking the $40M. So we said, the silver lining is that now, Olshey sees his error and will offer Leonard a fraction of that. Then we were TRIPLE aghast when Olshey INCREASED his offer to $41M!
 
calvin natt said:
It’s annoying when the numbers guys come out with claims that somehow meyers had better numbers than Zach between the ages of 20-22. This started because someone said he’d get the minimum and I said Meyers keeps getting 10m and he was NOT better than Zach his first three years. Which he wasn’t. Fact.
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Oh, for heavens' sake. I'm anything but a numbers guy. Seriously, every time you post it becomes more and more obvious how defensive you are because you have this weird, irrational Meyers' hate.

Where did you say in your first post, BTW, that Meyers was not better than Zach in his first three years? If you said that, my apologies, but all I recall seeing was you saying that Zach would get better than the minimum contract if Meyers could get $10M a year.

The implication being that Zach is head and shoulders and has been head and shoulders better than Meyers his first three years and continues to be, which nothing supports except that you either WANT Zach to be better or just can't stand Meyers.
 
jlprk said:
Remember how everyone was AGHAST that after years of us criticizing Olshey for not trading the uncoordinated slow-learner Leonard, Olshey offered him a huge $40M! Then we were DOUBLE aghast as Leonard turned it down, gambling that he could make even more, if he greatly improved that season, which everyone except him and Olshey knew would not happen! All the next downhill season as the pinhead sucked even worse instead of impressing other GMs, Leonard sadly said he regretted not taking the $40M. So we said, the silver lining is that now, Olshey sees his error and will offer Leonard a fraction of that. Then we were TRIPLE aghast when Olshey INCREASED his offer to $41M!
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Olshey has made bad mistakes on both sides bidding against himself with Meyers and CJ (giving CJ far more than anyone else would give him) and then bailing on Ed Davis instead of being able to get him for less. If Olshey drafts a guy he is highly highly overvalued and if he doesn't than he undervalues the guy.
 
kjironman1 said:
Well i guess if Meyers was (Wasn't) worth $40 million in 2016 then Zach could be worth $40 million in 2021?
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Well, the thread's about Collins. Remember when Collins showed nothing as a shooter his rookie year, but learned a lot of defense from watching Ed Davis, our 3rd-best player who made the team's defensive rating actually decent that year? The board said, Davis is going to get PAID this summer. Reporters and the board looked shocked when Olshey gave him away. Olshey-lovers said, we can't afford him. He took the first offer at $4M under Olshey's advice, and ever since our defensive rating immediately regressed to the Stotts mean. The board said, it's okay because Olshey says Collins is a top shooter. I said, Davis never misses those tough little shots over many defenders' arms, while Collins sits on the bench in foul trouble when he tries it. And I see no shooting range from Collins, who if he's lucky may in a few years be as good as Davis...or may not. I was told, oh no no, Olshey says Collins is a star.
 
blazerkor said:
I'll say this the reason why their numbers are even close and by that I mean why Zach isn't blowing Meyers out of the water is because it would click for Meyers for weeks at a time. He would start asserting himself on both ends and be a real force. Meyers has more potential than Zach and sometimes Meyers would reach it and then the rest of the time Meyers would be unplayable. Guess what, because he was young, Stotts played him when he was with it and sat his ass (like Stotts should with everyone) when Meyers was playing like he'd never played before... that just happens far too often with Meyers.

I'll end my part with this. I will bet you that if Zach can get his health together, he'll play two times the minutes in his career than Meyers does. It's because people will know what they're getting with Zach and reliability might actually be the most important ability. Due to Zach's health and Meyers's inconsistency on the floor, neither of them have been very valuable in their careers... and it's unfortunate because both of them seem like they work their asses off and have great attitudes.
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Again, not a lot for me to disagree with here. The only thing I'd add is that Zach getting healthy isn't anything we really can take for granted, and, even when he's been healthy, he hasn't played anywhere near the 10th pick in the draft.

Zach, BTW, has been one of the few exceptions for Stotts, it seems, in terms of letting a young guy play through his slumps. But it seems to me a fair share of posters seem to give Zach the same kind of pass based on his potential when I look at his performance and I don't see anything close to his potential and then I look at his stats and it's even worse than my eye test said it was. I don't know if it's because he played at Gonzaga so a lot of the people in the Pacific Northwest want to see him thrive more or what, but to try to say he's played well is stretching it. He's been average at best, and hurt at most.
 
jlprk said:
Well, the thread's about Collins. Remember when Collins showed nothing as a shooter his rookie year, but learned a lot of defense from watching Ed Davis, our 3rd-best player who made the team's defensive rating actually decent that year? The board said, Davis is going to get PAID this summer. Reporters and the board looked shocked when Olshey gave him away. Olshey-lovers said, we can't afford him. He took the first offer at $4M under Olshey's advice, and ever since our defensive rating immediately regressed to the Stotts mean. The board said, it's okay because Olshey says Collins is a top shooter. I said, Davis never misses those tough little shots over many defenders' arms, while Collins sits on the bench in foul trouble when he tries it. And I see no shooting range from Collins, who if he's lucky may in a few years be as good as Davis...or may not. I was told, oh no no, Olshey says Collins is a star.
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Collins is a star, CJ is untouchable, Ant is the best athlete Neil's ever seen but yeah as I mentioned don't pay Ed Davis a discounted rate to keep him... the fact that people in here don't understand that Olshey is the root of our problems and that Stotts is a symptom is beyond me. The Vulcans should be shopping for a GM right now. Find one, fire Olshey in the middle of this season, announce the new GM the same day and tell the GM to find his own coach and to build a team around Dame that makes sense.
 
But but...Can you name the replacement?

(Requiring me to do the GM's job, admits that he can't do it.)

You can? Shit. Well, can you write the contract like a lawyer?

(There. I saved the status-quoers the work to write it.)

Uhhh..it's the players' fault. The coach or GM don't make a difference.

(Then you won't object to changing them, right?)
 
GrandpaBlaze said:
The numbers may not but the eye test does. I’d mostly cringe when Meyers was playing. Generally not so with Zach.
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Basketball's not a beauty contest, though. I cringe watching Ant shoot, but, you know what? He makes a lot of them. Andre Miller had an ugly-looking style of play. Are you saying you'd want Zach over Andre because he fits your preconception of what a basketball player should look like? Would you want Charles Barkley or Adrian Dantley or Charles Oakley or Reggie Miller instead of Dontonio Wingfield or Michael Olowokandi?

I guess this is getting to the point. It's an aesthetics thing. People like Zach's look, the look of his game, and, because of that, they're going to throw his actual performance out the window. They see Zach and he's still on the team and they WANT him to play up to his potential, because here's this 7-foot guy with loose feet. They see Meyers and for goodness sakes he's still a whipping boy 2 years after he left the team because no one liked that he didn't look coordinated. He didn't even need brought into the conversation, but someone just needed to bash him for no reason.

Then you look at the numbers. If you never saw either guy play but just looked at their numbers, I don't think anyone would pick Zach over Meyers.

It's funny, though. CJ McCollum gets beaten up all the time here because of his advance metrics regardless of what the eyes says. Now the advance metrics mean nothing because we weren't confident in Meyers.

The final point being that this shouldn't be about Meyers at all. It's about Zach Collins. Like I said before, he might get money somewhere because all it takes is one team with money and need and a GM willing to take a chance to give it to him, but that doesn't mean he's earned it yet. It doesn't matter what anyone else did or made or whatever.
 
PCmor7 said:
Again, not a lot for me to disagree with here. The only thing I'd add is that Zach getting healthy isn't anything we really can take for granted, and, even when he's been healthy, he hasn't played anywhere near the 10th pick in the draft.

Zach, BTW, has been one of the few exceptions for Stotts, it seems, in terms of letting a young guy play through his slumps. But it seems to me a fair share of posters seem to give Zach the same kind of pass based on his potential when I look at his performance and I don't see anything close to his potential and then I look at his stats and it's even worse than my eye test said it was. I don't know if it's because he played at Gonzaga so a lot of the people in the Pacific Northwest want to see him thrive more or what, but to try to say he's played well is stretching it. He's been average at best, and hurt at most.
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This is completely accurate. I think we agree that neither guy was a great pick and sticking with Meyers at a bad price was a mistake that will likely be repeated with Zach. As @AldoTrapani likes to point out far far too often there were a lot of better guys behind Zach, who we moved up for but the worse mistake than drafting him would be to overpay him to keep him here and that's regardless of if he blossoms once he leaves.

It's about making the right decision now and not in retrospect. Right now Zach's value is not good. He is injured way too often and when he's not shows bad hands and a propensity to make stupid fouls. That being said I think we should have cut bait with Meyers and I think if we can get Zach to understand that his value is not good and he should take a two or three year deal at a salary under his qualifying offer, then we should keep him. If he can't be convinced I wouldn't even give him the QO.
 
I think a lot of you guys under estimate Zach. Defensely he was very good his 1st two years and very good in the playoffs his 2nd year on defense the eye test and stats say so. Offensely he don't turn the ball over as much as you think it's 1.5 turnovers per game. His rebounding goes up every year. So did majority of his stats. Offensely he fit in role for this team set good screen that he very good at without fouling and very active on the offense boards by getting us extra shots. Scoring is about opportunities to score and with him being the 5th option most of his opportunities came from offense rebounding. I re watch some of the bubble games and the game I watch against Philly there were 18 attempts against him 13 misses 5 made. Zach try to contest everything around him and does make players miss around the rim a lot something we been missing all year for this team this year. Does he make mistakes sure but so does everybody else on this team. I am still high on Zach because he does the little things he does on this team to help them to win. How much is he worth it really depends on his health and more likely if he mends the right way and what I seeing on the defense side he just might be worth more then you think. If I was him I accept the QO and bet on myself and test the free agent market the following year. If I was Olshey I try lock him up for least 3 year with 3rd year as a option.
 
James lamphear said:
I think a lot of you guys under estimate Zach. Defensely he was very good his 1st two years and very good in the playoffs his 2nd year on defense the eye test and stats say so. Offensely he don't turn the ball over as much as you think it's 1.5 turnovers per game. His rebounding goes up every year. So did majority of his stats. Offensely he fit in role for this team set good screen that he very good at without fouling and very active on the offense boards by getting us extra shots. Scoring is about opportunities to score and with him being the 5th option most of his opportunities came from offense rebounding. I re watch some of the bubble games and the game I watch against Philly there were 18 attempts against him 13 misses 5 made. Zach try to contest everything around him and does make players miss around the rim a lot something we been missing all year for this team this year. Does he make mistakes sure but so does everybody else on this team. I am still high on Zach because he does the little things he does on this team to help them to win. How much is he worth it really depends on his health and more likely if he mends the right way and what I seeing on the defense side he just might be worth more then you think. If I was him I accept the QO and bet on myself and test the free agent market the following year. If I was Olshey I try lock him up for least 3 year with 3rd year as a option.
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The turnovers aren't accurate. He gives Dame turnovers because he can't catch a goddamn pass. Also having around two turnovers per game with the role he plays is not even close to acceptable. He doesn't have a high enough field goal percentage for the role he should be playing even if he does hit a three every other game. His rebounding was at 8.6 per 36 in the bubble and that's been consistent throughout his career, hardly an elite number. He fouls at a rate that makes him hard to keep on the floor but given those other numbers I don't know if we need to worry about keeping him on the floor. Rim protecting is the only thing he really does well. I don't hate Zach, I'm just pointing out the reality of his situation but what do you give him to lock him up on a three year deal?
 
blazerkor said:
This is completely accurate. I think we agree that neither guy was a great pick and sticking with Meyers at a bad price was a mistake that will likely be repeated with Zach. As @AldoTrapani likes to point out far far too often there were a lot of better guys behind Zach, who we moved up for but the worse mistake than drafting him would be to overpay him to keep him here and that's regardless of if he blossoms once he leaves.

It's about making the right decision now and not in retrospect. Right now Zach's value is not good. He is injured way too often and when he's not shows bad hands and a propensity to make stupid fouls. That being said I think we should have cut bait with Meyers and I think if we can get Zach to understand that his value is not good and he should take a two or three year deal at a salary under his qualifying offer, then we should keep him. If he can't be convinced I wouldn't even give him the QO.
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Yeah. I think both guys might have been OK picks without the benefit of hindsight. We wanted a big to pair with our PG and Drummond had just gone off the board, so Meyers had the next best upside so they went with him ... we had so many needs at that point. Zach was intriguing because he was long and showed all this promise and performed so well in the NCAA tourney. I can't necessarily fault either pick at the time ... I might have liked someone better, and I definitely had reservations about trading up for Zach, but, you know, a compelling argument could be made for either one. In retrospect, they both look like misses.

Absolutely, this is about now. It's going to be interesting to see what kind of a market Collins attracts. I just hope the Blazers don't bid against themselves if they decide keeping him is worth the risk.
 
James lamphear said:
I think a lot of you guys under estimate Zach. Defensely he was very good his 1st two years and very good in the playoffs his 2nd year on defense the eye test and stats say so. Offensely he don't turn the ball over as much as you think it's 1.5 turnovers per game. His rebounding goes up every year. So did majority of his stats. Offensely he fit in role for this team set good screen that he very good at without fouling and very active on the offense boards by getting us extra shots. Scoring is about opportunities to score and with him being the 5th option most of his opportunities came from offense rebounding. I re watch some of the bubble games and the game I watch against Philly there were 18 attempts against him 13 misses 5 made. Zach try to contest everything around him and does make players miss around the rim a lot something we been missing all year for this team this year. Does he make mistakes sure but so does everybody else on this team. I am still high on Zach because he does the little things he does on this team to help them to win. How much is he worth it really depends on his health and more likely if he mends the right way and what I seeing on the defense side he just might be worth more then you think. If I was him I accept the QO and bet on myself and test the free agent market the following year. If I was Olshey I try lock him up for least 3 year with 3rd year as a option.
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Strangely enough, we feel practically the opposite on every point! I am no Zach hater BUT I think he is one of the most overvalued Blazers in recent memory. His defense can be good, but he has no vertical, and it sort of seems like guys have figured that out--he's not going to block your shot, just disrupt or foul you and make a pouty face. Offensively, he is incredibly underwhelming, making the occasional 3, but missing layups, putbacks, short jumpers. He has terrible hands, losing rebounds, fumbling balls.

I just marvel at the high regard people have for him... I mean his ceiling can't be much higher than we've seen, can it?

That being said, if we resign him, fine. He does seem to bring some stability to the team. But remove the 10th pick status from the equation and I'm unsure he's not all that different than like 50 guys in the league whose bodies aren't breaking down at the age of 23. And how crazy is that? Everyone is talking patience-the-guy-is-young stuff, but he is also falling to pieces at the age of 23.

Anyhow, one of my least favorite aspects of Blazer fandom in the Olshey-era is this gaslight-y touting of "talent."
 
PCmor7 said:
Yeah. I think both guys might have been OK picks without the benefit of hindsight. We wanted a big to pair with our PG and Drummond had just gone off the board, so Meyers had the next best upside so they went with him ... we had so many needs at that point. Zach was intriguing because he was long and showed all this promise and performed so well in the NCAA tourney. I can't necessarily fault either pick at the time ... I might have liked someone better, and I definitely had reservations about trading up for Zach, but, you know, a compelling argument could be made for either one. In retrospect, they both look like misses.

Absolutely, this is about now. It's going to be interesting to see what kind of a market Collins attracts. I just hope the Blazers don't bid against themselves if they decide keeping him is worth the risk.
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Yeah, I was pretty heartbroken when we didn't trade up for Drummond, who I thought would have complimented LA because he brought us the toughness that LA lacked. I was excited about Lillard though... I think most on OLive back then had started really liking Lillard because he'd put those videos up on YouTube with his workouts. Both Meyers and Zach were picks that I didn't know a lot about and just had to trust the GM on... so I'm not judging them in hindsight. From day one I thought they had to prove that they were worth the pick but neither ever did. We would have been smart not to trade up for Zach and trade the Meyers pick for something that could have helped that team more immediately if trading up for Drummond wasn't an option.
 
By the time Collins will return, he will have played, what, 11 games in two years? Also, big men with foot/lower leg injuries are always cause for concern.

This is not to the time to try and get a value contract done. Portland (err Olshey) tried that multiple times in the summer of 2016 and it's not the move. For the first time in a long time Portland doesn't have a bad contract on the books. However, we have a lot of upcoming free agents over the next two summers, especially in the frontcourt. Both Covington and Nurkic are UFA in 22, Jones can opt out in 21, and Melo and Kanter will be UFA in 21 as well.

I have my questions as to what position Collins can play in today's NBA. We all envisioned him as a 4, especially after that playoff run in 2019. But, from what little we did see of him last year, he looked too slow to play out on the perimeter and his 3-pt shot wasn't consistent enough. He's more suited for the 5, but I'm don't believe he's strong enough yet and we also have Nurkic and Kanter who seem to get the job done in tandem.

Keep Zach around for a year on the QO and see how he fits in. If it works, sign him long-term. If it doesn't, deal him at the deadline or let him walk. The only thing worse than losing a draft pick for nothing is compounding that mistake by signing them to an overpaid, long-term deal (Meyers).
 
blazerkor said:
The turnovers aren't accurate. He gives Dame turnovers because he can't catch a goddamn pass. Also having around two turnovers per game with the role he plays is not even close to acceptable. He doesn't have a high enough field goal percentage for the role he should be playing even if he does hit a three every other game. His rebounding was at 8.6 per 36 in the bubble and that's been consistent throughout his career, hardly an elite number. He fouls at a rate that makes him hard to keep on the floor but given those other numbers I don't know if we need to worry about keeping him on the floor. Rim protecting is the only thing he really does well. I don't hate Zach, I'm just pointing out the reality of his situation but what do you give him to lock him up on a three year deal?
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I go by real numbers not advance on office I believe he was average almost 7 boards a game and the turnovers was few he couldn't handle but the majority of them when he brought the ball down below his waisted off a rebound or a move. Covington and Jones is average below 6 a game this year on rebounds. Now when you only average 6 or 7 shots a game and some come off offense rebounds then he really not getting the opportunity to score. Plus look at Jones and Covington opportunity on offense this year while Dame and CJ playing there getting about the same attempts of shots. Well how much do I give him I believe the going price is between 8-10 million a year. Kiebler from Dallas gets about 8.6 million and Harrell from the Lakers gets about 9.5 million a year.
 
Propagandist said:
Strangely enough, we feel practically the opposite on every point! I am no Zach hater BUT I think he is one of the most overvalued Blazers in recent memory. His defense can be good, but he has no vertical, and it sort of seems like guys have figured that out--he's not going to block your shot, just disrupt or foul you and make a pouty face. Offensively, he is incredibly underwhelming, making the occasional 3, but missing layups, putbacks, short jumpers. He has terrible hands, losing rebounds, fumbling balls.

I just marvel at the high regard people have for him... I mean his ceiling can't be much higher than we've seen, can it?

That being said, if we resign him, fine. He does seem to bring some stability to the team. But remove the 10th pick status from the equation and I'm unsure he's not all that different than like 50 guys in the league whose bodies aren't breaking down at the age of 23. And how crazy is that? Everyone is talking patience-the-guy-is-young stuff, but he is also falling to pieces at the age of 23.

Anyhow, one of my least favorite aspects of Blazer fandom in the Olshey-era is this gaslight-y touting of "talent."
Click to expand...
You know Nurk fouls out more games then Zach when there healthy and you do know Nurk miss just many bunnies as Zach and do you Zach has 6 blocks twice in his career and jumping and putting both hands up making people miss around the rim is just as good as a block. Now he real stats not advance stats he only average 3.5 fouls a game. I also seen guard guards on switches and been pretty successful holding his own out there. Plus how much vertical need when your 7 foot tall with your arms straight up in the air. Yes big fan of him and needs clean some things up to reach another level but there correctable.
 
James lamphear said:
You know Nurk fouls out more games then Zach when there healthy and you do know Nurk miss just many bunnies as Zach and do you Zach has 6 blocks twice in his career and jumping and putting both hands up making people miss around the rim is just as good as a block. Now he real stats not advance stats he only average 3.5 fouls a game. I also seen guard guards on switches and been pretty successful holding his own out there. Plus how much vertical need when your 7 foot tall with your arms straight up in the air. Yes big fan of him and needs clean some things up to reach another level but there correctable.
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I don't think comparing Nurk and Zach is fair...to Zach. Nurk is a phenomenal player, a bone fide starter with a ceiling at near All-Star level, whose impact on the game is clear, while Zach...? I've definitely seen Zach have an impact on games, but dude is likely not a starter on the majority of NBA rosters, when healthy. I mean, Nurk is a force and Zach is more of a complementary player. I don't know, they are just very different players; I just think it is a bad comp.

So, Zach is special because he's twice blocked 6 shots in a game and is tall and can jump with his arms straight up? He's also prone to fouling 3 point shooters and throwing ah-shucks tantrums.

It's coming off like I don't like Zach. I do. I just think there are a dozen of him in the league and it's a damn shame we got a broken one.
 
James lamphear said:
I go by real numbers not advance on office I believe he was average almost 7 boards a game and the turnovers was few he couldn't handle but the majority of them when he brought the ball down below his waisted off a rebound or a move. Covington and Jones is average below 6 a game this year on rebounds. Now when you only average 6 or 7 shots a game and some come off offense rebounds then he really not getting the opportunity to score. Plus look at Jones and Covington opportunity on offense this year while Dame and CJ playing there getting about the same attempts of shots. Well how much do I give him I believe the going price is between 8-10 million a year. Kiebler from Dallas gets about 8.6 million and Harrell from the Lakers gets about 9.5 million a year.
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Kleber (a sharp shooter) and Harrell are worlds better than Zach and I saw that you were comparing Zach to Nurk. So I should probably stop talking to you about Zach because you see him far far different than I do. Also per36 numbers aren't advanced metrics, they're what you have to use with role playing bench players like Collins.
 
calvin natt said:
If Meyers Leonard can roll out of bed and keep getting $10M a year contracts, Zach is going to get more than the minimum or close to it, and more than one year. I think he'll probably be healthy this summer, be doing workouts, film it like everyone else to show how hard working they are, his agent will talk to teams and they will offer him a decent deal. Portland probably will low ball him, and he will leave.
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Then, he will be injured on his new team. I can forecast that. Let him GO! Player Durability is what Portland Needs!
 
wizenheimer said:
when Meyers was 22, he had a 15.8% rebound rate, Zach's best is 12.7%. Meyers scored 19.7 points/100-possesions; Zach's best was 18.3
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If you add the injury factors, and playing minutes that could turn to higher percentages for Meyers. IMO~
I don't have stats for comparison.
 
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