Scalma
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Found this on Collins before the draft on another site, and written by a laker fan, but it’s so good it’s worth sharing. The irony? When we look back on this draft, people may very well be saying the Lakers should’ve drafted Collins.
—-
Why Zach Collins?
The short answer? Because he’s probably the most underrated player in this draft. And I don’t say that lightly. On this forum, we talk a lot about Lonzo Ball’s incredible impact on UCLA, turning a downtrodden franchise into a winner. And deservedly so. But Zach Collins also deserves credit for helping take Gonzaga to the NCAA finals as a freshman (statistically, Collins and Nigel Williams Goss were Gonzaga’s best players). The difference is that Collins did it as a 19 year old freshman while Goss was a 22 year old. Collins has freakish upside. But because he didn’t receive as much playing time as other “top prospects” and hasn’t been as media hyped, people are undervaluing him. The Lakers should take this opportunity to snag him.
For those of you who didn’t watch Gonzaga games, this is Zach Collins. He’s a 7-footer with amazing talent, whose defense was arguably the best in all of college basketball.
Collins’ box-score stats are misleading -- mostly because he only averaged ~17 minutes a game. People may see that he tallied only 10 points and 6 rebounds a game and wonder why I think he’s undervalued. While Collins did average 10 and 6, the truth is that when you project his minutes out longer, his production reaches absurd levels.
To show you what I mean, I’ve listed the per 40 minute box scores of both Zach Collins and Karl-Anthony Towns (from his one season stint at Kentucky).
Karl-Anthony Towns
Zach Collins
As you can see, their stat lines are pretty comparable. Perhaps, you might be thinking, “so Collins performed well in 17 minutes, but it’s unlikely that he could perform at that level given extended minutes.” But in fact the evidence suggests just the opposite -- with more playing time, players often increase their efficiency!
A Defensive Genius
Perhaps Collins’ biggest strength is his immaculate defense. In his one year at Gonzaga, he achieved a defensive rating of 79.4, making him number 1 in all of NCAA basketball for 2016-2017 as a freshman. What makes Collins such a dominant force on the defensive end is the combination of his 7-foot frame, his athleticism, his quickness, his impeccable timing, and his high basketball IQ.
See for yourself.
Here we see Collins rotating over to contest the drive after his teammate goes for the steal. His athleticism, size, and timing secure the block and launch the Zags on a fast break for easy points.
In this clip, Collins comes from behind to end the opponent’s fast break layup. Collins has a high motor and doesn’t give up on plays.
Perhaps more than any other draft prospect, Collins has an amazing understanding of verticality. Even when he doesn’t block the shot, he can contest without fouling by jumping straight up and bothering it.
You can see another example of his verticality skills here. Notice also his impeccable timing -- knowing exactly when to jump and preparing for it with that little hop step. His body control, combined with his length, make him a crazy strong defender.
Nor does Collins quit on a play. He’s shown that he hustles and boxes out to secure rebounds, whether on the defensive or offensive end of the floor. He’s also demonstrated a Kevin-Love like nose for the ball that’s special.
But maybe more important than even Collins' length, timing, and body control is his agility. Collins has shown not only that he can cause havoc in the paint, but also that he can step out and defend guards on the perimeter.
He has the lateral quickness to slide with smaller players without fouling them, a skill that’s particularly important at the next level, since pick and roll is so popular.
What’s so incredible is that Collins is able to do this as a 7-footer. Watch as he switches onto Jared Brownridge of Santa Clara, closes off the drive, and forces him into a terrible shot.
Stratospheric Offensive Upside
Offensively, Zach Collins has already demonstrated a tremendous skillset: excellent footwork, great post moves, efficient outside shooting, and strong finishing ability.
He has a sweet up and under move.
And he does it from both sides of the floor.
He’s agile enough to outmaneuver opposing bigs on the block.
He has easily one of the prettiest jump hooks in college basketball.
And he can hit it in traffic.
Or in an iso-type situation.
Due to his quickness advantage over bigger guys, he can usually take his man off the dribble.
He runs hard in the fastbreak. His high motor and finishing ability will be huge assets to us, especially if we draft Lonzo and play a more up-tempo style.
Watch in this clip how he runs the floor hard, catches, and finishes in transition. Now imagine we have Lonzo running the break with him and lobbing it up -- he would fit perfectly with us.
He’s also a great lob target off screen and rolls.
Another facet of Collins’ game that makes him a rare talent is his shooting ability. He has the skills to step outside and knock down outside jumpers. This makes him a pick and pop threat so that teams can’t just sag off of him to protect against the roll. Imagine the high screen and roll possibilities with D’lo and Lonzo.
Collins is also a threat to catch and shoot in the high post.Overall, he’s an extremely efficient shooter, with a true shooting % of 70.3, which was the second highest in among all college freshmen this past season.
Collins has even shown the ability to shoot the three ball.He shot 47%(!) from 3 at Gonzaga. Admittedly, this was done in a small sample size, but given his high free throw %, good mechanics, and high outside shot % slightly inside the three point arc, it’s likely Collins can become a good -- maybe even a knock-down -- three point shooter. This versatility on the offensive end allowed him to have an offensive rating of 125.1, which is 10th best among all freshmen in this year’s draft class. With Lonzo Ball feeding him, that efficiency will likely go even higher -- not even to mention his improvements and upside.
Conclusion
In short, Collins has both the offensive and defensive tools and versatility to excel at both the 4 and 5. His defensive prowess, combined with his offensive abilities, present nightmares for opposing teams. And if this hasn’t convinced you, the advanced analytics love him: among the freshmen in this draft class, he ranks number 2 in box plus/minus behind only Lonzo Ball. He ranks 3rd overall in PER and 2nd overall in Wins produced per 48.
—-
Why Zach Collins?
The short answer? Because he’s probably the most underrated player in this draft. And I don’t say that lightly. On this forum, we talk a lot about Lonzo Ball’s incredible impact on UCLA, turning a downtrodden franchise into a winner. And deservedly so. But Zach Collins also deserves credit for helping take Gonzaga to the NCAA finals as a freshman (statistically, Collins and Nigel Williams Goss were Gonzaga’s best players). The difference is that Collins did it as a 19 year old freshman while Goss was a 22 year old. Collins has freakish upside. But because he didn’t receive as much playing time as other “top prospects” and hasn’t been as media hyped, people are undervaluing him. The Lakers should take this opportunity to snag him.
For those of you who didn’t watch Gonzaga games, this is Zach Collins. He’s a 7-footer with amazing talent, whose defense was arguably the best in all of college basketball.
Collins’ box-score stats are misleading -- mostly because he only averaged ~17 minutes a game. People may see that he tallied only 10 points and 6 rebounds a game and wonder why I think he’s undervalued. While Collins did average 10 and 6, the truth is that when you project his minutes out longer, his production reaches absurd levels.
To show you what I mean, I’ve listed the per 40 minute box scores of both Zach Collins and Karl-Anthony Towns (from his one season stint at Kentucky).
Karl-Anthony Towns
Zach Collins
As you can see, their stat lines are pretty comparable. Perhaps, you might be thinking, “so Collins performed well in 17 minutes, but it’s unlikely that he could perform at that level given extended minutes.” But in fact the evidence suggests just the opposite -- with more playing time, players often increase their efficiency!
A Defensive Genius
Perhaps Collins’ biggest strength is his immaculate defense. In his one year at Gonzaga, he achieved a defensive rating of 79.4, making him number 1 in all of NCAA basketball for 2016-2017 as a freshman. What makes Collins such a dominant force on the defensive end is the combination of his 7-foot frame, his athleticism, his quickness, his impeccable timing, and his high basketball IQ.
See for yourself.
Here we see Collins rotating over to contest the drive after his teammate goes for the steal. His athleticism, size, and timing secure the block and launch the Zags on a fast break for easy points.
In this clip, Collins comes from behind to end the opponent’s fast break layup. Collins has a high motor and doesn’t give up on plays.
Perhaps more than any other draft prospect, Collins has an amazing understanding of verticality. Even when he doesn’t block the shot, he can contest without fouling by jumping straight up and bothering it.
You can see another example of his verticality skills here. Notice also his impeccable timing -- knowing exactly when to jump and preparing for it with that little hop step. His body control, combined with his length, make him a crazy strong defender.
Nor does Collins quit on a play. He’s shown that he hustles and boxes out to secure rebounds, whether on the defensive or offensive end of the floor. He’s also demonstrated a Kevin-Love like nose for the ball that’s special.
But maybe more important than even Collins' length, timing, and body control is his agility. Collins has shown not only that he can cause havoc in the paint, but also that he can step out and defend guards on the perimeter.
He has the lateral quickness to slide with smaller players without fouling them, a skill that’s particularly important at the next level, since pick and roll is so popular.
What’s so incredible is that Collins is able to do this as a 7-footer. Watch as he switches onto Jared Brownridge of Santa Clara, closes off the drive, and forces him into a terrible shot.
Stratospheric Offensive Upside
Offensively, Zach Collins has already demonstrated a tremendous skillset: excellent footwork, great post moves, efficient outside shooting, and strong finishing ability.
He has a sweet up and under move.
And he does it from both sides of the floor.
He’s agile enough to outmaneuver opposing bigs on the block.
He has easily one of the prettiest jump hooks in college basketball.
And he can hit it in traffic.
Or in an iso-type situation.
Due to his quickness advantage over bigger guys, he can usually take his man off the dribble.
He runs hard in the fastbreak. His high motor and finishing ability will be huge assets to us, especially if we draft Lonzo and play a more up-tempo style.
Watch in this clip how he runs the floor hard, catches, and finishes in transition. Now imagine we have Lonzo running the break with him and lobbing it up -- he would fit perfectly with us.
He’s also a great lob target off screen and rolls.
Another facet of Collins’ game that makes him a rare talent is his shooting ability. He has the skills to step outside and knock down outside jumpers. This makes him a pick and pop threat so that teams can’t just sag off of him to protect against the roll. Imagine the high screen and roll possibilities with D’lo and Lonzo.
Collins is also a threat to catch and shoot in the high post.Overall, he’s an extremely efficient shooter, with a true shooting % of 70.3, which was the second highest in among all college freshmen this past season.
Collins has even shown the ability to shoot the three ball.He shot 47%(!) from 3 at Gonzaga. Admittedly, this was done in a small sample size, but given his high free throw %, good mechanics, and high outside shot % slightly inside the three point arc, it’s likely Collins can become a good -- maybe even a knock-down -- three point shooter. This versatility on the offensive end allowed him to have an offensive rating of 125.1, which is 10th best among all freshmen in this year’s draft class. With Lonzo Ball feeding him, that efficiency will likely go even higher -- not even to mention his improvements and upside.
Conclusion
In short, Collins has both the offensive and defensive tools and versatility to excel at both the 4 and 5. His defensive prowess, combined with his offensive abilities, present nightmares for opposing teams. And if this hasn’t convinced you, the advanced analytics love him: among the freshmen in this draft class, he ranks number 2 in box plus/minus behind only Lonzo Ball. He ranks 3rd overall in PER and 2nd overall in Wins produced per 48.
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