Battle for play-in

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The Lakers play at Denver tomorrow at 5:30 PT, followed by home games against Dallas, Minnesota, and the Clippers (two games).

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THE HCP said:
Because when we lose games he will be the first one complaining that we SHOULD have won and it’s contagious around this place. Unrealistic expectations make this place unbearable. THAT’S why.
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Sure, it's unrealistic expectations that make this place unbearable. OK. Let's go with that...
 
Tank fans be alert, Grant and Simons are still on the team and healthy. Your chances are strong.
 
Suns get destroyed in Toronto. Anyone know why they suck so much? It helps us! Who had us only 2.5 games behind them (with no major injuries) at this point in the season?

10. Kings 28-28
11. Suns 26-30
12. Spurs 24-30
13. Blazers 24-33
 
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KingSpeed said:
Ok Spurs lost and Kings are going down. So Spurs, Suns, and Kings are the teams we can pass and have to pass. Might be easy to pass Kings and Spurs as they are likely tanking soon.
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KingSpeed said:
Suns get destroyed in Toronto. Anyone know why they suck so much? It helps us! Who had us only 2.5 games behind them (with no major injuries) at this point in the season?
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why the hell would Kings be "tanking soon"? They are still in the 10th seed with essentially a 2.5 game lead over 11th seed Phoenix because they own the tiebreaker. If they tank effectively enough to fall to 12th seed in the lottery they lose their draft pick. They wouldn't risk that by tanking; and they wouldn't have traded for LaVine if they intended to tank. Makes no sense

Blazers aren't 2.5 games behind the Suns, they are 3. And since Phoenix effectively owns the tiebreaker, Portland is 4 games behind. And, Suns have played 3 more games on the road than at home while the Blazers have played 3 more games at home than on the road. Besides that, catching the 11th seed does nothing besides getting the Blazers a worse draft pick

Blazers did win 10 of 11 and have won 11 of 16. But 8 of those 11 wins came at home and 9 wins came against teams with losing records. 14 of Portland's remaining 25 games are on the road: 13 games are against teams with winning records; and 16 of 25 games are against teams with better records. It's a really difficult path for a team that's at least 4.5 games out of 10th seed (5.5 games out if they lose on March 27)

I'm not saying it's an impossible hill to climb, but it's pretty damn steep
 
wizenheimer said:
why the hell would Kings be "tanking soon"? They are still in the 10th seed with essentially a 2.5 game lead over 11th seed Phoenix because they own the tiebreaker. If they tank effectively enough to fall to 12th seed in the lottery they lose their draft pick. They wouldn't risk that by tanking; and they wouldn't have traded for LaVine if they intended to tank. Makes no sense

Blazers aren't 2.5 games behind the Suns, they are 3. And since Phoenix effectively owns the tiebreaker, Portland is 4 games behind. And, Suns have played 3 more games on the road than at home while the Blazers have played 3 more games at home than on the road. Besides that, catching the 11th seed does nothing besides getting the Blazers a worse draft pick

Blazers did win 10 of 11 and have won 11 of 16. But 8 of those 11 wins came at home and 9 wins came against teams with losing records. 14 of Portland's remaining 25 games are on the road: 13 games are against teams with winning records; and 16 of 25 games are against teams with better records. It's a really difficult path for a team that's at least 4.5 games out of 10th seed (5.5 games out if they lose on March 27)

I'm not saying it's an impossible hill to climb, but it's pretty damn steep
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Your math is off. Suns are 26-30 and we are 24-33. That puts us 2.5 games behind them. Kings got Lavine because they had to get something. Lavine isn’t nearly as good as Fox though. It would seem to make sense and punt on the same. But are you saying they can’t get a pick in the lottery this year? I didn’t know that. I agree it’s steep. And we’d have to beat two talented teams for the right to play OKC. But that experience would fire the team up for next year.
 
Update with Spurs loss:

10. Kings 28-28
11. Suns 26-30
12. Spurs 24-31
13. Blazers 24-33
 
THE HCP said:
Because when we lose games he will be the first one complaining that we SHOULD have won and it’s contagious around this place. Unrealistic expectations make this place unbearable. THAT’S why.
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What would we have left if not for unrealistic expectations? I know you're a Portland native - it's what we do!
 
KingSpeed said:
Your math is off. Suns are 26-30 and we are 24-33. That puts us 2.5 games behind them. QUOTE]Kings got Lavine because they had to get something. Lavine isn’t nearly as good as Fox though. It would seem to make sense and punt on the same. But are you saying they can’t get a pick in the lottery this year? I didn’t know that. I agree it’s steep. And we’d have to beat two talented teams for the right to play OKC. But that experience would fire the team up for next year.
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geeeezuzz....Suns are 27-30. My math isn't off...your eyes are

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Suns 19.5 games out of first; Portland 22.5 games out. Pull out your calculator and subtract 19.5 from 22.5 (hint: it will be the same as 22-19 or 4-1)

KingSpeed said:
Kings got Lavine because they had to get something. Lavine isn’t nearly as good as Fox though. It would seem to make sense and punt on the same.
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Lavine has much better 2ptFG%, 3ptFG%, eFG%, and TS% marks. He's a far more efficient shooter and scorer than FOX. Fox has a 5% better PER but he has 7% higher usage. Fox is a PG; LaVine a SG. LaVine has appeared in 2 all-star games; Fox in one. If Fox is actually better than LaVine, which is debatable, the gap is not nearly as big as you imply

but besides all that, LaVine make 11M/year more than Fox and has 1 more season on his contract. If the Kings were just looking to dump Fox, adding LaVine is a stupid way to go about it.

KingSpeed said:
But are you saying they can’t get a pick in the lottery this year?
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Atlanta owns their pick with top-12 protection. So, the Kings keep their pick if it's 13 or 14. But that's a pretty narrow and risky window to try and open and squeeze thru. Looking at the standings, if they drop out of the play-in they could have the 14th pick. If they make the playoffs, they could have the 16th pick. There's no advantage for them in tanking
 
wizenheimer said:
Lavine has much better 2ptFG%, 3ptFG%, eFG%, and TS% marks. He's a far more efficient shooter and scorer than FOX. Fox has a 5% better PER but he has 7% higher usage. Fox is a PG; LaVine a SG. LaVine has appeared in 2 all-star games; Fox in one. If Fox is actually better than LaVine, which is debatable, the gap is not nearly as big as you imply

but besides all that, LaVine make 11M/year more than Fox and has 1 more season on his contract. If the Kings were just looking to dump Fox, adding LaVine is a stupid way to go about it.
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Didn't the Kings also get 3 1sts and 3 2nds (or 2 1sts and 5 2nds) in that deal? I thought that was basically their compensation for accepting a significantly worse contract in exchange for a player that wanted out.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Didn't the Kings also get 3 1sts and 3 2nds (or 2 1sts and 5 2nds) in that deal? I thought that was basically their compensation for accepting a significantly worse contract in exchange for a player that wanted out.
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technically 3 first's, but the Charlotte 1st is already off the table

the 2027 Spurs first, if Wenby stays healthy, isn't likely to be a very high pick. The 2031 Minny first may or may not be a high pick. Long ways away

looks like they already sent all three 2nd's elsewhere

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed
 
wizenheimer said:
geeeezuzz....Suns are 27-30. My math isn't off...your eyes are

View attachment 71602

Suns 19.5 games out of first; Portland 22.5 games out. Pull out your calculator and subtract 19.5 from 22.5 (hint: it will be the same as 22-19 or 4-1)



Lavine has much better 2ptFG%, 3ptFG%, eFG%, and TS% marks. He's a far more efficient shooter and scorer than FOX. Fox has a 5% better PER but he has 7% higher usage. Fox is a PG; LaVine a SG. LaVine has appeared in 2 all-star games; Fox in one. If Fox is actually better than LaVine, which is debatable, the gap is not nearly as big as you imply

but besides all that, LaVine make 11M/year more than Fox and has 1 more season on his contract. If the Kings were just looking to dump Fox, adding LaVine is a stupid way to go about it.



Atlanta owns their pick with top-12 protection. So, the Kings keep their pick if it's 13 or 14. But that's a pretty narrow and risky window to try and open and squeeze thru. Looking at the standings, if they drop out of the play-in they could have the 14th pick. If they make the playoffs, they could have the 16th pick. There's no advantage for them in tanking
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Go figure. When I looked at the standings last night, I swear it’s said 26-30
 
10. Kings 29-28
11. Suns 27-30
12. Spurs 24-31
13. Blazers 25-33

We pass Spurs if they lose tomorrow. Might be time to track Dallas too. They have 27 losses and a lot of crash and burn potential.
 
Looking at the upcoming schedule in March, I can see a potential 7 game-losing streak starting in Cleveland.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
Looking at the upcoming schedule in March, I can see a potential 7 game-losing streak starting in Cleveland.
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I'm seeing that 76er game as a win. But from March 1st till the end of the season I see 12-16 losses. Even at the low end that's a 37-45 record; maybe 38-44 or 39-43 if the Warriors and Lakers rest a bunch of players at the end of the season
 
KingSpeed said:
I see us going 16-8 and finishing 41-41. Whether that’s enough for play-in, we shall see.
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We won't.

9-15. As a high mark. The team is not good. That is a proven fact and not an opinion.
 
Strenuus said:
We won't.

9-15. As a high mark. The team is not good. That is a proven fact and not an opinion.
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Actually, we’re one of the best defensive teams in the NBA the last couple months. We’ve won 12 of our last 17 games despite several injuries. We’ve improved as the season has gone on. He won’t win but Billips will get COTY votes. Camara may make All Defense First Team. We are a very fun team to watch nowadays.
 
We’ve moved up and we’re only 2 games out of 11th after Suns choked tonight.

10. Kings 29-28
11. Suns 27-31
12. Blazers 25-33
13. Spurs 24-32
 
KingSpeed said:
We’ve moved up and we’re only 2 games out of 11th after Suns choked tonight.

10. Kings 29-28
11. Suns 27-31
12. Blazers 25-33
13. Spurs 24-32
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I don't see what good it is looking at the 11th seed. Portland is still 4.5 games behind the 10th seed. They were 5 games behind 18 games ago before that 10-11 stretch. They have only gained a half game since then
 
wizenheimer said:
I don't see what good it is looking at the 11th seed. Portland is still 4.5 games behind the 10th seed. They were 5 games behind 18 games ago before that 10-11 stretch. They have only gained a half game since then
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Can’t get to 10th seed until you pass the 11th seed first. We’re on our way. We weren’t 4.5 games behind Sac when we were 13-28. I don’t understand what you’re talking about.
 
I looked it up. We were 8 games behind Sacramento before this 17 game stretch.
 
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