Bayless freed!

[maxiep]

I wouldn't get too carried away, but yeah I think if Miller doesn't pick up his play pretty soon (like within the next ten games) then I think his days are numbered. Honestly I think the two points auditioning to keep their jobs are Miller and Blake at this point.

Nik, you always seem to be a step ahead of what I'm going to post. Lost in Blake's crappy play is Miller struggling as well. Granted a struggling Miller will generally be better than a struggling Blake, but he's a much better player than he's shown us this season.

 

[SpanishFly]

Nik, you always seem to be a step ahead of what I'm going to post. Lost in Blake's crappy play is Miller struggling as well. Granted a struggling Miller will generally be better than a struggling Blake, but he's a much better player than he's shown us this season.

Agree that Miller has been crappy too, and at least this really creates an opportunity for Bayless and so far he is taking good advantage of it! One of Miller or Blake IMO will be traded by the Feb deadline IMO, and I think it could be either one at this time. Bayless goin nowhere IMO except on the floor with more minutes.

 

[magnifier661]

Wow do we really think that Bayless is ready to start at PG? I don't know. He's pretty young. He seems like he wouldn't be to intimidated, I think he has that chip on his shoulder. But in all honesty, I would really like some vet leadership. Why not keep Miller starting, then Bayless first option off the bench?

 

[Schilly]

Wow do we really think that Bayless is ready to start at PG? I don't know. He's pretty young. He seems like he wouldn't be to intimidated, I think he has that chip on his shoulder. But in all honesty, I would really like some vet leadership. Why not keep Miller starting, then Bayless first option off the bench?

Just a point, but look at the last 2 teams we played, Milwaukee and Sacramento, I would say that with our Injuries we are on par with those 2 teams, and they both start Rookie PG's. Jennings and Evans.

 

[magnifier661]

Just a point, but look at the last 2 teams we played, Milwaukee and Sacramento, I would say that with our Injuries we are on par with those 2 teams, and they both start Rookie PG's. Jennings and Evans.

Well like I said in another thread. I'm all for any change that will be a positive. Ive had a downer year so far with all these injuries. I just want something nice to come out of this season.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Trade Miller for a forward. It solves EVERYTHING.

To what team and for what forward? I honest can't see a team that would want Miller.

He's old, so rebuilding teams don't want him.
He can't/won't shoot, so teams like the Magic don't want him (otherwise Miller for Bass makes perfect sense).
He doesn't defend well either.

There's a reason that both he and Sessions (another great distributor with suspect shooting and defense) found the FA market absolutely ice cold, and Sergio had to be given away for a bag of chips. The game's changed. (Makes you wonder if Rubio will ever come over.)

 

[hasoos]

To what team and for what forward? I honest can't see a team that would want Miller.

He's old, so rebuilding teams don't want him.
He can't/won't shoot, so teams like the Magic don't want him (otherwise Miller for Bass makes perfect sense).
He doesn't defend well either.

There's a reason that both he and Sessions (another great distributor with suspect shooting and defense) found the FA market absolutely ice cold, and Sergio had to be given away for a bag of chips. The game's changed. (Makes you wonder if Rubio will ever come over.)

Actually I have read Philly misses him. They have been also having a hard time getting minutes for Thadeus Young. I would shit a brick if we could pull that off, but it is something ot think about.

I still think the problem is that we don't run, and Miller is a running PG. Philly was sucking last year under Mo Cheeks until they fired him, and the new coach started running. Miller had been struggling there until then too. They started running, and next thing you know the team made the playoffs.

 

[maxiep]

Personal favor. He's been a Blazer fan since Walton was here.

LOL. The only way Jerry held that sign up is if Bayless' coach at St. Mary's wouldn't play him.

 

[BenDavis503]

HUH? That was a win too and Bayless was even more of a factor in crunch time. And it was on the road. That game was definitely more of a "breakout" game than tonight's was. The question is whether or not the coaching staff will continue to trust him. We all know he can play. He's played well from day one going back to summer league.

So what is your point, Nancy? You proved him wrong about Bayless "TRUE" breakout game.

Do you feel better?

 

[MrJayremmie]

For a while I really wanted to keep Blake, but just as a 15mpg backup to lets say Bayless. After reading more about the situation it has become apparent that Blake needs to go because Nate feels forced to play him because of Roy. Only way to get around that is for him not to be on our team.

I think this season hasn't gone as we expected it, so we should give Bayless around 25-30mpg. We can definitely have a positive come out of this year if he emerges as a really good up and coming PG for us. I think he could be a 12, 3 and 3 player this year, honestly, if he would get 25-30mpg.

If he does, then the Bayless/Roy/Batum/Aldridge/Oden dream lineup may actually end up being that "future championship lineup" many of us were dreaming about since early last year. I really do see a Billups/Ellis ceiling for Bayless.

My $.02

 

[magnifier661]

For a while I really wanted to keep Blake, but just as a 15mpg backup to lets say Bayless. After reading more about the situation it has become apparent that Blake needs to go because Nate feels forced to play him because of Roy. Only way to get around that is for him not to be on our team.

I think this season hasn't gone as we expected it, so we should give Bayless around 25-30mpg. We can definitely have a positive come out of this year if he emerges as a really good up and coming PG for us. I think he could be a 12, 3 and 3 player this year, honestly, if he would get 25-30mpg.

If he does, then the Bayless/Roy/Batum/Aldridge/Oden dream lineup may actually end up being that "future championship lineup" many of us were dreaming about since early last year. I really do see a Billups/Ellis ceiling for Bayless.

My $.02

I kinda agree as well. I think we need to make damn sure that our team is designed to win, not make everyone comfortable (and I mean this by having a lower quality player play, instead of one that deserves to be there). I like Blake. There has been nothing he's done that would make me want him gone as far as attitude. Fact is, this isn't really his problem. He's just trying to play, when he's on the court. He's not demanding the playing time and seems very accepting for any role the team gives him. I think him being dealt has very little to do with Blake and more to do with our star not wanting to change.


Hopefully this growing pain of Roy will subside. He needs to learn to adapt. If things are a little harder to manage with a different line-up, he needs to take it upon himself to change the game and get everyone involved. Roy's an amazing player and should be able to fit into any system. He needs to know that leaders lead and make others better.

 

[Kaydow]

For a while I really wanted to keep Blake, but just as a 15mpg backup to lets say Bayless. After reading more about the situation it has become apparent that Blake needs to go because Nate feels forced to play him because of Roy. Only way to get around that is for him not to be on our team.

I think this season hasn't gone as we expected it, so we should give Bayless around 25-30mpg. We can definitely have a positive come out of this year if he emerges as a really good up and coming PG for us. I think he could be a 12, 3 and 3 player this year, honestly, if he would get 25-30mpg.

If he does, then the Bayless/Roy/Batum/Aldridge/Oden dream lineup may actually end up being that "future championship lineup" many of us were dreaming about since early last year. I really do see a Billups/Ellis ceiling for Bayless.

My $.02

I wonder if Brandon still feels this way. Miller seems willing to play off the ball now - at least he did last night in his first start with Roy. I'm watching the 1st quarter last night and it was Brandon who had the ball in his hands. Roy & miller both brought the ball up. When Miller brought the ball up his first pass was out to Brandon on the wing, then Miller would run to the week side. At the 4:31 (when Blake came in) Roy had touched the ball on every possession except one (a fast break that Miller dished to Webster)

 

[hasoos]

I wonder if Brandon still feels this way. Miller seems willing to play off the ball now - at least he did last night in his first start with Roy. I'm watching the 1st quarter last night and it was Brandon who had the ball in his hands. Roy & miller both brought the ball up. When Miller brought the ball up his first pass was out to Brandon on the wing, then Miller would run to the week side. At the 4:31 (when Blake came in) Roy had touched the ball on every possession except one (a fast break that Miller dished to Webster)

I actually don't think that is the case at all. Brandon has said several times he doesn't prefer one guard over another. What he does want is for it to get nailed down so they can start playing together to jell by end of season. I believe the problem is with the coaches comfort level, not his.

 

[mook]

I wonder if Brandon still feels this way. Miller seems willing to play off the ball now - at least he did last night in his first start with Roy. I'm watching the 1st quarter last night and it was Brandon who had the ball in his hands. Roy & miller both brought the ball up. When Miller brought the ball up his first pass was out to Brandon on the wing, then Miller would run to the week side. At the 4:31 (when Blake came in) Roy had touched the ball on every possession except one (a fast break that Miller dished to Webster)

I noticed that too. I was actually a little annoyed at times with how little Miller actually controlled the ball. But that first quarter had such fantastic ball movement that you can't really complain.

I really don't think Brandon has a long-term problem with Miller. Certainly nothing that necessitates shipping Blake to clear up playing time issues.

Miller has made the adjustment to quickly get the ball out of his own hands and into Roy's (or someone else). I don't have any numbers to back it up, but if anyone was dominating the ball too much I'd say it was Blake.

 

[KingSpeed]

Steve Blake's percentages this year:

37/34/70.

Not something we need.

Miller should be the mentor for Bayless. Blake should be traded as he has a bit of value as an expiring (lord knows his value doesn't come from his play on the court).

Also, you're a fool if you favor Mills over Miller.

Blake is in a slump, yes, but he is traditionally a good shooter.

I never said I favored Mills over Miller.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

25 games + 8 pre-season game slump I Guess

Post shoulder surgery slump? I know conventional wisdom is that last year was a career year for him and he's just sliding back to his average...but perhaps the shoulder is just not the same post surgery? Regardless, he's shooting like dung...

 

[hasoos]

Post shoulder surgery slump? I know conventional wisdom is that last year was a career year for him and he's just sliding back to his average...but perhaps the shoulder is just not the same post surgery? Regardless, he's shooting like dung...

I disagree. I just think Blake had a career year last year and reverted to what he had been all along. An at best 7 point and a few assist per night backup. Go look over his career numbers. Last year was anomaly.

 

[Minstrel]

Blake is in a slump, yes, but he is traditionally a good shooter

Miller is in a slump, but he is traditionally a better passer and creator for others than anyone else on the roster.

Or do past seasons only matter for Blake?

 

[hasoos]

Miller is in a slump, but he is traditionally a better passer and creator for others than anyone else on the roster.

Or do past seasons only matter for Blake?

Yes and No. Miller thrives in an up and down running game. Last year he struggled until Cheeks was fired, and they implemented a running system. Unless something changes here(highly doubtful after this many years), does it make sense to keep him here? I can't come up with any logical reason to keep him. I would just rather move forward with Bayless and Rudy when he comes back, and got o a 3 guard rotation and try to get those 3 to Jell.

 

[Further]

Miller is in a slump, but he is traditionally a better passer and creator for others than anyone else on the roster.

Or do past seasons only matter for Blake?

I'm not in one camp or the other, but I think there is a logic flaw in your thought. Shooting is an extremely precise skill that takes exact repetition to master. You shoot from the same spot every day X amount of times to create a muscle memory for game time performance. But being a passer and creator is more of a fluid skill that also takes practice, but practice in general. Try a million different things and learn which ones are correct decisions or bad decisions.

There may be somewhat of a slump by Miller, but more likely his poor performance is due only partially to that, but more-so to not fitting with the players/not fitting the system. He can certainly learn how to adapt, and I expect some improvement, but that will likely follow more of a traditional learning curve than breaking out of a slump. A shooter on the other hand often just needs such a tiny correction to break out of a slump, that once they figure out that small adjustment (harder than it sounds) the player will often fully recover from the slump and shoot as well as they always have.

Apples and oranges. This does not mean that I prefer Blake to Miller, just that the slump arguement does have more credence in relation to Blake.

 

[Minstrel]

I'm not in one camp or the other, but I think there is a logic flaw in your thought. Shooting is an extremely precise skill that takes exact repetition to master. You shoot from the same spot every day X amount of times to create a muscle memory for game time performance. But being a passer and creator is more of a fluid skill that also takes practice, but practice in general. Try a million different things and learn which ones are correct decisions or bad decisions.

There may be somewhat of a slump by Miller, but more likely his poor performance is due only partially to that, but more-so to not fitting with the players/not fitting the system. He can certainly learn how to adapt, and I expect some improvement, but that will likely follow more of a traditional learning curve than breaking out of a slump. A shooter on the other hand often just needs such a tiny correction to break out of a slump, that once they figure out that small adjustment (harder than it sounds) the player will often fully recover from the slump and shoot as well as they always have.

Apples and oranges. This does not mean that I prefer Blake to Miller, just that the slump arguement does have more credence in relation to Blake.

I don't really agree with this. It isn't as if Miller has played with just one set of teammates and one system for his career. He's had lots of different teammates and various systems and has consistently been good. I don't see the big swings in performance in Miller's history that would suggest his play-making is a less-predictable skill than Blake's shooting.

My use of "slump" wasn't intended to be a precise term...I was using "slump" as a proxy for "lower level of performance than normal." My point is that we have a performance track record for both players, and it is significantly more likely that that performance history is the "true talent level" than the sample we've seen this season. For both players.

 

[Kaydow]

I disagree. I just think Blake had a career year last year and reverted to what he had been all along. An at best 7 point and a few assist per night backup. Go look over his career numbers. Last year was anomaly.

Even if you say last year was an anomaly . . . his carreer .407 FG/.388 3 Pt compared to this season .367/.342 suggests this he's having a bad year. I don't think it's the shoulder. I think Blake's confidence hit the skids the day we signed Miller. He also isn't getting the same looks he had last year, when Roy had an easier time getting off. When Brandon was knocking down jumpers and getting to the basket, it opened the door for a lot of open 3's for Blake.

 

[MARIS61]

Well I'm scared for Bayless. If Blake or Miller isn't gone by the time Rudy comes back, does Bayless go back to playing 10 minutes a night?

Even if one of them is traded it's still quite likely he recedes back to limited time.

He's still got a heap to learn about team defense, is too short to guard most players anyway, and is nowhere near good enough to justify limiting Rudy, Travis or Nic.

If Blake and Miller both get traded he's got a shot, but the timing STRONGLY suggests Bayless is being showcased for a "Miller/Bayless for _____?_____" trade.

 

[MARIS61]

From Day 1 Miller has stated, almost bragged, that he doesn't work out at all during the summer, doesn't worry about getting into shape for training camp even, preferring to "work my way into shape through the first part of the season".

That his play has not helped the team much should come as no surprise to anyone.

 

[hasoos]

Even if you say last year was an anomaly . . . his carreer .407 FG/.388 3 Pt compared to this season .367/.342 suggests this he's having a bad year. I don't think it's the shoulder. I think Blake's confidence hit the skids the day we signed Miller. He also isn't getting the same looks he had last year, when Roy had an easier time getting off. When Brandon was knocking down jumpers and getting to the basket, it opened the door for a lot of open 3's for Blake.

Yea I agree. He is both playing like Blake from a previous year, but without confidence. So it is a double downer.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Blake is in a slump, yes, but he is traditionally a good shooter.

I never said I favored Mills over Miller.

He's been a pretty good three point shooter, but that's about the only place he shoots well from (terrible finisher around the basket and has never been all that good off the dribble). What he's really doing in this offense is playing the small forward position that Martell has had trouble occupying with any consistency.

Makes me wonder which way this team is going to go as far as roster consolidation. When and if Mills comes back that will leave the team with 4 point guards and one very inconsistent small forward, and who knows just when and how effective Nic will be when he supposedly returns to the roster in February.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Even if one of them is traded it's still quite likely he recedes back to limited time.

He's still got a heap to learn about team defense, is too short to guard most players anyway, and is nowhere near good enough to justify limiting Rudy, Travis or Nic.

If Blake and Miller both get traded he's got a shot, but the timing STRONGLY suggests Bayless is being showcased for a "Miller/Bayless for _____?_____" trade.

Until and unless Rudy shows he can play full-time as a starter in a backcourt with Roy (which has some serious problems defensively) I think you're identifying the wrong "most likely to be traded" candidate. Honestly I think it wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility to see Miller, Rudy and filler put on the block in an attempt to bring back a big time small forward. If Bayless shows he can coexist in the backcourt (which means guarding point guards and meshing with Roy's style of play) then I think it's going to be very hard for a case to be made to move him (and Nic and Travis have about as much to do with his PT as Joel does.)

 

[Schilly]

Blake may be a better 3 point shooter even this abysmal season, but he doesn't draw fouls. Which can be vital late in games. Many reasons why. Getting an opponent in foul trouble keeps them off the floor. Foul shots are easy baskets, that's why they call the shots "Free". Not drawing fouls means that the defense isn't being pressured by a given player.

Blake for example has 425 FTA in 445 career games. How many of those are from Technical fouls and end of game foul who ever has the ball? With less than 1 FTA per game for a career I'd guess that about half of those were Technical and end of games.

By perspective if you look at what Bayless does, he forces teams to react quickly to him or he is going to be in the paint in a blink and drawing a foul on a big man. Big men going down as we know takes away valuable defense and rebounding. Bayless spreads the floor more efficiently this season while shooting sub 30% from 3 than Blake does shooting 34.5% from 3.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Blake may be a better 3 point shooter even this abysmal season, but he doesn't draw fouls. Which can be vital late in games. Many reasons why. Getting an opponent in foul trouble keeps them off the floor. Foul shots are easy baskets, that's why they call the shots "Free". Not drawing fouls means that the defense isn't being pressured by a given player.

Blake for example has 425 FTA in 445 career games. How many of those are from Technical fouls and end of game foul who ever has the ball? With less than 1 FTA per game for a career I'd guess that about half of those were Technical and end of games.

By perspective if you look at what Bayless does, he forces teams to react quickly to him or he is going to be in the paint in a blink and drawing a foul on a big man. Big men going down as we know takes away valuable defense and rebounding. Bayless spreads the floor more efficiently this season while shooting sub 30% from 3 than Blake does shooting 34.5% from 3.

Hitting the three isn't even really the issue for Bayless, it's the fact that he's starting to hit a mid-range jumper (15-18 feet) off the dribble. If he can continue to hit it defenders won't be able to sage off and lure him into a charge like they were able last year. And frankly, he's starting to take over Travis' third scorer role, except that instead of taking two dribbles and pulling up for some crazy off-balance 21 footer just inside the arc, he's driving and either finishing or getting fouled -- hence the 62%+ True Shooting percentage.

The reality though is that Bayless isn't really spacing the floor, he's taking advantage of back cuts off of passes from Roy and Miller when those two draw a second or third defender. This team still needs a reliable perimeter threat.

 

[Schilly]

I agree with you. Given the way the team and individuals are playing though Steve Blake isn't the right guy for the role, well let me put it this way if Roy and Bayless are carrying you late like last night, we need a SF who can hit the 3, not a 3rd guard. Webster in theory could be that guy but he has happy hands.

Love the Bruce Campbell avatar BTW.