Blazers trade the #7 pick for.....?

[Mediocre Man]

Can this work?

Bledsoe + 7 + for OG.
TPE + MIL pick + Keon + 36 for Grant.

Dame/Ant/OG/Grant/Nurk

with Nas/Hart/MLE fillers off the bench.

I’m not a cap guy AT ALL, but I don’t think you can combine anything with a TPE

 

[illmatic99]

I’m not a cap guy AT ALL, but I don’t think you can combine anything with a TPE

it would have to be separate deals.

grant for TPE.
the others into the TPE for some sorta heavily protected second.

i was only putting together the big picture.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Orlando - they are committed to Wendall Carter as their starting C, and he's arguably already better than Nurkic. So they wouldn't be making a big offer to Nurk. At guard, they have Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Terrence Ross, Markelle Fultz, and RJ Hampton all under contract next season. They also have Gary Harris as a free agent they may be interested in re-signing. I don't see them as much of a threat to offer Simons a 20+ million/year deal

Detroit - they don't have any cap-space unless they renounce the rights Bagley, and they won't be doing that. Even if they re-sign him quickly for 15M, the most space they'll have is in the 10-20M range, and 20M in unlikely. They have Stewart and Olynyk at C and both are more mobile than Nurkic. And they have Cade Cunnigham, Killian Hayes, Cory Joseph, and Hamidou Diallo at guard

Indiana - looks like the most cap-space they'll have would be in the 15-20M range. At guard, they already have Brogdon, Buddy Hield, Tyrese Haliburton, TJ McConnell, & Chris Duarte. There's no way they'll be using their limited cap-space on Simons. And they already traded away a better C than Nurkic in Sabonis to clear the way for Turner to be their starter. And they may have already lined up a substantial offer to Jalen Smith. They are unlikley to make a 15M/year offer to Nurkic to be their backup C

San Antonio - with their 3 first round picks and the cap-hold for Walker, the Spurs might have 15M in space, maybe 20M. They have Poeltl at C who is arguably better than Nurkic.; and they have Zach. At guard they have all-star Murray, Keldon Johnson, Lonnie walker, Josh Richardson, Joshua Primo, and Devin Vassell

Nurkic is a traditional C at the time when the NBA is abandoning traditional C's and their vulnerability in the PnR. They have almost hit the dime-a-dozen value. Nurkic also has a very extensive and worrisome injury history. A team would have to want an often-injured C as their starting C and I can't see any of the teams with cap-space going for Nurk in that role. Especially not for 15M/year

Simons has lots of hype among Blazer fans but I question how far that hype has penetrated into NBA front offices. I don't believe a 25 game sample size in a 4th season player on a crappy team is going to generate any giant contract offers.

I don't believe either of Portland's free agents will generate the 2022 version of the Crabbe offer sheet. There are too many flaws in the games of the pair. Obviously, as I said, all it would take is one GM to blow my theory out of the water. But I think the Blazers need to really do a good jobe of assigning value here. They've seen Nurkic in street clothes too often, and they have lived thru overpaying CJ so they have templates for what not to do

Nurk I agree with you has many factors working against him.

We will see what happens, I think its more likely Simons gets a near max deal than a small team friendly deal. Elite athleticism, extremely efficient shooting, offensive skills, and youth on restricted free agents have a history of getting paid huge contracts.

Crabbe is a great example, at the time many Blazers fans were saying we would resign him for a big discount. Then he got a near max deal from the Nets and Olshey matched. Olshey gave huge contracts to other Blazer bidding against himself. Crabbe hadn't proven himself at as high of a level as Simons has. Although Crabbe may have had more potential with the always in need 3+D role. Simons has shown potential to lead a teams offense. Of course its limited sample size, if Simons had proven himself over a longer period he would be a lock for a max contract and one of the most valued young players.

Does Cronin hold firm on negotiations with current players and not bidding against himself where Olshey failed? Would love to see it, but I have no reason to believe he will be any better than his prior 10 year boss on that.

 

[HansenYang]

bledsoe would have to be included in a deal for Collins, but that would still save ATL a lot of long term $.

Semi salary dump. EBEC for Collins works.

Bledsoe's contract would have to be almost fully guaranteed to be included in a trade.
It would only save Atlanta ~$5M.
Collins' $23.5M - Bledsoes' $19.3M = $4.2M savings

There's not enough financial savings there for it to be worth it for them.

 

[illmatic99]

Bledsoe's contract would have to be almost fully guaranteed to be included in a trade.
It would only save Atlanta ~$5M.
Collins' $23.5M - Bledsoes' $19.3M = $4.2M savings

There's not enough financial savings there for it to be worth it for them.

i clearly said long term, mostly because they'll still be paying Capela and Young's supermax will kick in. And they're going to have to pay DeAndre Hunter. beldsoe is on the hook for 19 this year. Collins is on the hook for 5 yrs/ 102 still.

 

[HansenYang]

I’m not a cap guy AT ALL, but I don’t think you can combine anything with a TPE

The TPE is only how a player is acquired. You cannot 'send out' a TPE. The rule is that you can't aggregate a TPE with a player or another TPE to receive a higher salary than what your TPE allows.

In this scenario, the transaction would occur like this:

Detroit send Grant -> into the TPE
Portland sends MIL pick + Keon + 36 -> for Grant.

It's a legal trade.

it would have to be separate deals.

grant for TPE.
the others into the TPE for some sorta heavily protected second.

i was only putting together the big picture.

No it doesn't. It would all be part of a single trade.

 

[Mediocre Man]

The TPE is only how a player is acquired. You cannot 'send out' a TPE. The rule is that you can't aggregate a TPE with a player or another TPE to receive a higher salary than what your TPE allows.

In this scenario, the transaction would occur like this:

Detroit send Grant -> into the TPE
Portland sends MIL pick + Keon + 36 -> for Grant.

It's a legal trade.


No it doesn't. It would all be part of a single trade.

Ya, that’s right

 

[HansenYang]

i clearly said long term, mostly because they'll still be paying Capela and Young's supermax will kick in. And they're going to have to pay DeAndre Hunter. beldsoe is on the hook for 19 this year. Collins is on the hook for 5 yrs/ 102 still.

So they have a full year to look at the trade market and find a better deal.

There's no way that Atlanta would trade Collins for strictly a salary dump right now.

 

[wizenheimer]

Yeah, I look at this the other way, why would Orland, Detroit or Indy not max Simons? Either we get stuck with a huge contract or they get a 22 year old super efficient 3pt shooting dunk contest winning most improved player candidate for free. With a cap spike coming on a new TV deal and few bad contracts on those teams the small 25% Simons max is not harmful to those franchises.

If you believe like me the Blazers are extremely far away from having a contending roster, then its great there are these restrictions preventing the Blazers from trading away even more of the future in a doomed to fail attempt to win now.

LOL....do you have some algorithm that churns out the most negative response possible to any thought or idea any poster here has? Sure seems that way

I get it...the Blazers are in the most hopeless situation possible. It's worse than hopless. It's total doom and gloom....there's no light at the end of the tunnel, and if there is a light it's really a runaway train filled with more doom and gloom heading Portland's direction. Blazers suck

no team is going to offer Simons a max deal. Try and find a team that practically has 30.5M in cap-space. You won't. Try and find a GM stupid enough to give Simons 33M/year. Here's a hint: Billy King isn't a GM any more. If you take the time to look at the guard rosters of the teams with cap-space, the view is a lot different than that of 'why not?'. And that TV cap-spike you're talking about ain't happening till the 2025-26 season.

something else: I know there is a irresistible Pavlovian impulse among you nega-fans to immediately say "that won't make Portland a contender" whenever somebody suggests a move. But that's a straw-man because nobody is suggesting that any single move, or any single draft, or any single off-season will be enough. It will take a process and a plan. You have to put the walls up first before putting on a roof.

you think the current Portland situation is hopeless. I don't. But what would have been completely fucking hopeless is CJ-Powell-Nance still on the team with Olshey in charge and Portland having a 13th or 14th pick instead of the 7th pick...or fresh off being swept in the first round

 

[SharpesTriumph]

LOL....do you have some algorithm that churns out the most negative response possible to any thought or idea any poster here has? Sure seems that way

I get it...the Blazers are in the most hopeless situation possible. It's worse than hopless. It's total doom and gloom....there's no light at the end of the tunnel, and if there is a light it's really a runaway train filled with more doom and gloom heading Portland's direction. Blazers suck

no team is going to offer Simons a max deal. Try and find a team that practically has 30.5M in cap-space. You won't. Try and find a GM stupid enough to give Simons 33M/year. Here's a hint: Billy King isn't a GM any more. If you take the time to look at the guard rosters of the teams with cap-space, the view is a lot different than that of 'why not?'. And that TV cap-spike you're talking about ain't happening till the 2025-26 season.

something else: I know there is a irresistible Pavlovian impulse among you nega-fans to immediately say "that won't make Portland a contender" whenever somebody suggests a move. But that's a straw-man because nobody is suggesting that any single move, or any single draft, or any single off-season will be enough. It will take a process and a plan. You have to put the walls up first before putting on a roof.

you think the current Portland situation is hopeless. I don't. But what would have been completely fucking hopeless is CJ-Powell-Nance still on the team with Olshey in charge and Portland having a 13th or 14th pick instead of the 7th pick...or fresh off being swept in the first round

Ha ha, "an algorithm of negativity".

Look, I just put my opinion of the team out for all to see just as you put yours out there or you respond to my thoughts. If you look through my posts over many years I'm not constantly negative on the Blazers. I've been overly positive many times. Heck I bet on the team to exceed their over/under and even win the title in recent years. I've been down at other times when it was deservedly so, especially the Turner/Meyers 2016 offseason.

Am I extremely negative with the deadline trades, primarily the Clippers trade? Yes. Am I negative of current ownership and the Vulcans? Yes. Am I negative on this "build a winner immediately with Dame" rhetoric from the team and fans? Yes. Am I negative on the assets of this roster after the deadline trades? Yes.

I'm far from alone, many knowledgeable Blazer fans were very negative with the deadline trades and very pessimistic with the future of this team. Some have described it as a gut punch similar to when Roy/Oden were injured. Maybe most of these fans just quit visiting this site as much and leave it to the Blazer homers or Neil pitchfork crowd to spread their misplaced hope and optimism. Maybe I have some bizarre sickness in that I follow a team and root for them so passionately even when they are being run so horribly with a depressing short term future.

No, it can be much worse than your feared hopelessness of a CJ-Powell-Nance-13th pick on the team. If we end up with Josh Hart, Didi, Jerami Grant and no pick I'd say we are clearly worse off immediately and long term.

I sure hope I look like an idiot in a month and a half when the draft/free agency is done and the upcoming season roster plus long term pick assets are set.

 

[HansenYang]

There are a number of teams in Salary Cap hell, or right on the edge that Portland may be able to 'help'. Cronin is supposedly a cap guru as is the new hire from the Jazz. .

It's a roll of the dice, but D69 has done more than just Draft digging, and there are some teams that need to make moves financially.

Maybe we actually get something out of the TPE, EBEC, Ingles, Hart, etc.

How about GSW? Wiseman is making ~$10M/yr and as a result is costing the Warriors ~$25M/yr (with taxes).
Would they go for the Bucks '25 pick for Wiseman?

Then would Houston go for a Wiseman <-> Wood trade?
Houston would have a YOUNG core with a lot of potential...

I think it's very possible the Blazers don't take whomever is available at #7. Whether that is to move down for a player, a player/pick, etc, there is a lot of things pointing to them not taking the pick. Here is one small example. The Raports will have or have had in Dyson Daniels and Benedict Mathurin. Their first pick as of now, is at #33. They have cap issues coming this year and even more so next year. Getting off some of the cap obligations with either an ending contract and/or a pick that they don't owe so much money to would help them a lot.

The Spurs are also very interested in Daniels and know that the Pelicans want him, so need to move up to get him. If #9 would get you OG, I'd trade #7 for #9 and either #20 or #25. Get OG, and a young player or use that pick or the Bucks pick to go after a Grant or a Collins because the Hawks are in the worst Cap situation in the league.

That would be a BIG upgrade in our forwards situation. Not sur that is contender status, but it is a a huge jump. I'd also like to somehow see Bamba or Jalen Smith added to that if they could. More Bigs!

I'd love a #7 + #57 for #9 + #20 trade. Swap #9 for OG & take Dieng with #20.

 

[BankTeller]

I think it's very possible the Blazers don't take whomever is available at #7. Whether that is to move down for a player, a player/pick, etc, there is a lot of things pointing to them not taking the pick. Here is one small example. The Raports will have or have had in Dyson Daniels and Benedict Mathurin. Their first pick as of now, is at #33. They have cap issues coming this year and even more so next year. Getting off some of the cap obligations with either an ending contract and/or a pick that they don't owe so much money to would help them a lot.

The Spurs are also very interested in Daniels and know that the Pelicans want him, so need to move up to get him. If #9 would get you OG, I'd trade #7 for #9 and either #20 or #25. Get OG, and a young player or use that pick or the Bucks pick to go after a Grant or a Collins because the Hawks are in the worst Cap situation in the league.

That would be a BIG upgrade in our forwards situation. Not sur that is contender status, but it is a a huge jump. I'd also like to somehow see Bamba or Jalen Smith added to that if they could. More Bigs!

Hmm…could #7 and #36 get back #9, #20, and #25? I’m getting increasingly interested in trading down for the most assets. I want to gamble on upside, and if we are really forced to make “win now” moves, I still want enough picks to be able to make trades AND still gamble on upside in the draft. So now, we’d have #9, #20, #25, and the future MIL pick to work with.

Could #9 + #25 + Bledsoe + Brown III get back OG + Achiuwa + #33? That would at least take care of two positions of need.

I’m really not trying to play hard ball with DET. If MIL 1st + #57 + TPE for Grant doesn’t get it done, we may have to look elsewhere, but let’s assume that gets it done.

I think you just have to go high upside at #20. I’m hoping Jovic still there at #20, but his combine measurement results might put him out of reach. I’m fine with any high upside forward here though.

With the MLE, I like the idea of Jalen Johnson even more if we get Achiuwa. Don’t have high hopes for Achiuwa’s upside, but his energy and defense inside with Johnson’s shooting outside in the second unit would fit well. With guys like Hart, Achiuwa, Nas, I think we can be a good rebounding team.

Dame/Simons/Keon
Simons/Hart/Keon
OG/Nas/Jovic/Winslow
Grant/Achiuwa/Watford/Jovic/Winslow
Nurkic/Johnson/#33/Achiuwa

This would be another decent result after a disastrous trade deadline. I think I could learn to like this roster.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Could #9 + #25 + Bledsoe + Brown III get back OG + Achiuwa + #33? That would at least take care of two positions of need.

Supposedly both Anunoby and Achiuwa are on the list of 6 players they aren't interested in trading. Maybe they'd give up one, but I can't see them dealing both.

 

[MickZagger]

I’m in the Daniels over Murray boat

 

[LayneStaley]

This reminds me of all the enthusiasm right before we traded two starters for Keon.

 

[illmatic99]

How about GSW? Wiseman is making ~$10M/yr and as a result is costing the Warriors ~$25M/yr (with taxes).
Would they go for the Bucks '25 pick for Wiseman?

Then would Houston go for a Wiseman <-> Wood trade?
Houston would have a YOUNG core with a lot of potential...




I'd love a #7 + #57 for #9 + #20 trade. Swap #9 for OG & take Dieng with #20.

gs is printing $. i don't think they care about luxury tax

 

[BankTeller]

Supposedly both Anunoby and Achiuwa are on the list of 6 players they aren't interested in trading. Maybe they'd give up one, but I can't see them dealing both.

If that’s the case, I’d just keep #9 and #25. Right now, I’m Daniels > OG and would prefer straight up picking Daniels than trade out of that position for OG. I’d still be interested in Achiuwa for #25 and #57, but if the ultimate goal for the Raptors is to get high enough for Daniels, we might not be the trade partner.

OG is the third best player in a trio of forwards. He’s a good starter right now, not a star. Let’s remember to think carefully about giving up picks for guys who haven’t made any all star teams yet this time. This is also a lotto pick…just, no.

Sochan at #9, Jovic or Dieng at #20, and a big at #36. You’d still have #25 and the MIL 1st to combine with Bledsoe for another forward. Excluding that piece, this is the lineup:

Dame/Simons/Keon
Simons/Hart/Keon
Grant/Nas/Jovic or Dieng/Winslow
Sochan/Grant/Watford/Brown III
Nurk/Johnson/#36/Brown III

This still wouldn’t be terrible. Sochan and Grant soaking up all of the PF minutes would also give Nas a chance to play that 25 mpg at SF, let’s see if an extension is coming. Not sure what you could get for the MIL pick + #25 + #57 + Bledsoe.

 

[Labinot41]

fully expecting a trade. I would be shoked if the Blazers keep the pick and move on with a rookie. Dame is already at the wrong side of his prime

 

[HailBlazers]

fully expecting a trade. I would be shoked if the Blazers keep the pick and move on with a rookie. Dame is already at the wrong side of his prime

Whatever do you mean. Dame is stoked to draft a 19 YO rookie.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

This reminds me of all the enthusiasm right before we traded two starters for Keon.

Yes similar to the Clippers trade; it'll be interesting to see if we do something dumb such as trade the #7 pick for Grant how many posters will flip and justify and support the move after it happens.

We'll probably hear a bunch of blame on Neil Olshey, about how he constructed the roster in a way that forced Cronin to trade a lottery pick for a mediocre starter.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

If that’s the case, I’d just keep #9 and #25. Right now, I’m Daniels > OG and would prefer straight up picking Daniels than trade out of that position for OG. I’d still be interested in Achiuwa for #25 and #57, but if the ultimate goal for the Raptors is to get high enough for Daniels, we might not be the trade partner.

OG is the third best player in a trio of forwards. He’s a good starter right now, not a star. Let’s remember to think carefully about giving up picks for guys who haven’t made any all star teams yet this time. This is also a lotto pick…just, no.

Sochan at #9, Jovic or Dieng at #20, and a big at #36. You’d still have #25 and the MIL 1st to combine with Bledsoe for another forward. Excluding that piece, this is the lineup:

Dame/Simons/Keon
Simons/Hart/Keon
Grant/Nas/Jovic or Dieng/Winslow
Sochan/Grant/Watford/Brown III
Nurk/Johnson/#36/Brown III

This still wouldn’t be terrible. Sochan and Grant soaking up all of the PF minutes would also give Nas a chance to play that 25 mpg at SF, let’s see if an extension is coming. Not sure what you could get for the MIL pick + #25 + #57 + Bledsoe.

This lineup makes no sense. The Blazers need to go with youth or try to win now. If you acquire Grant then your aiming for a win now veteran. If you draft and start Sochan your building for the future with youth, not trying to win now.

I don't see the point in the Blazers trying to win now as they don't have the assets to be able to do it. But them actually trying to do both at the same time would be even dumber.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

fully expecting a trade. I would be shoked if the Blazers keep the pick and move on with a rookie. Dame is already at the wrong side of his prime

Yeah, and with sell low Joe in charge of the negotiations, and the whole league basically having the same conclusion of our team pressured to win now; I don't like the odds of us getting equal value back of veterans in a trade.

Many posters are saying the #7 pick for Grant or OG is an overpay. I sadly wouldn't be shocked if we give up an additional asset in addition with the #7 pick.

It's likely the most sad depressing time to be a Blazers fanatic since the Roy career ending injury.

 

[blazerkor]

Yeah, and with sell low Joe in charge of the negotiations, and the whole league basically having the same conclusion of our team pressured to win now; I don't like the odds of us getting equal value back of veterans in a trade.

Many posters are saying the #7 pick for Grant or OG is an overpay. I sadly wouldn't be shocked if we give up an additional asset in addition with the #7 pick.

It's likely the most sad depressing time to be a Blazers fanatic since the Roy career ending injury.

If you're willing to make your own disastrous predictions into your reality then I guess you're right. I'm pretty sure we're getting Dame back this upcoming season and he's saying that he's feeling better than he has in the last five or more years... five years in which he was one of the top 5-7 players in the league. We're waiting to see what Ant can do after he lit the league on fire for a short time last season. We have the seventh pick in a deep draft. We have really nice role players who will hopefully be coming off the bench in Hart, Justise and Nas. We have a host of young guys who haven't proven that they're good yet but also haven't shown that they don't have a chance to be contributors in Trendon, Keon, Greg and Didi. There's a real chance that we get Nurk and Ant on team friendly deals (I'm not holding my breath on that one). I know there aren't a lot of people who love the idea of mortgaging our future first rounders to try and win now but doing what small thing it takes to guarantee Chicago our first next season or just changing the conditions so we could trade future firsts in another option. There are a lot of positive things that could happen this offseason and we'll start to get a clearer picture of what those things are in just over three weeks but you keep clinging to glood and doom.

 

[illmatic99]

A refresher from a few years back regarding the quantitative value of a pick. Based on this, 7+ 36 should be able to get you to #4.

 

[Strenuus]

My favorite part people forget is we're getting back a top 10 player in the league (and top 75 all time) who was injured for years and still put us on his back... And he's going to be healthy.

Healthy.

And people just gloss over this all the time.

I'm excited for whatever. I still don't want grant, but a prime healthy dame is freaking exciting.

 

[RR7]

A refresher from a few years back regarding the quantitative value of a pick. Based on this, 7+ 36 should be able to get you to #4.

I dont like his release of this. It makes sense in the NFL, not so much the nba. It implies Charlotte with 13 and 15 can trade up to #3. There's no chance of that happening.

 

[illmatic99]

I dont like his release of this. It makes sense in the NFL, not so much the nba. It implies Charlotte with 13 and 15 can trade up to #3. There's no chance of that happening.

i think it has more to do with how those picks have turned out in history, not necessary just their value in trades. he goes into a lot more detail about his formula, but it's hidden under insider.

https://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19658707

obviously it oversimplifies this concept of trade value into a singular quant, but i think it's a good guide to reference at times.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I dont like his release of this. It makes sense in the NFL, not so much the nba. It implies Charlotte with 13 and 15 can trade up to #3. There's no chance of that happening.

With each team only having 5 players on the floor at a time, individual players are MUCH more valuable in the NBA

 

[SharpesTriumph]

My favorite part people forget is we're getting back a top 10 player in the league (and top 75 all time) who was injured for years and still put us on his back... And he's going to be healthy.

Healthy.

And people just gloss over this all the time.

I'm excited for whatever. I still don't want grant, but a prime healthy dame is freaking exciting.

I haven't forgot this.

But I also understand Dame is on the wrong side of 30. I also am not excited about seeing a bubble level performance from Dame if its for a poor playoff team. Maybe you are.

Who is Dame's best teammate? Compare that to the rest of the west, and we're one of the worst teams.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

If you're willing to make your own disastrous predictions into your reality then I guess you're right. I'm pretty sure we're getting Dame back this upcoming season and he's saying that he's feeling better than he has in the last five or more years... five years in which he was one of the top 5-7 players in the league. We're waiting to see what Ant can do after he lit the league on fire for a short time last season. We have the seventh pick in a deep draft. We have really nice role players who will hopefully be coming off the bench in Hart, Justise and Nas. We have a host of young guys who haven't proven that they're good yet but also haven't shown that they don't have a chance to be contributors in Trendon, Keon, Greg and Didi. There's a real chance that we get Nurk and Ant on team friendly deals (I'm not holding my breath on that one). I know there aren't a lot of people who love the idea of mortgaging our future first rounders to try and win now but doing what small thing it takes to guarantee Chicago our first next season or just changing the conditions so we could trade future firsts in another option. There are a lot of positive things that could happen this offseason and we'll start to get a clearer picture of what those things are in just over three weeks but you keep clinging to glood and doom.

Dame said some of these comments before the season. I'll believe he is better than he has been the last 5 years when we see it.

The sad part is even if he is better, the team is unlikely to have enough other talent to matter.