Debate in another forum ..... Roy or Rose?

[Denny Crane]

That's not really roy's game. He's a jack of all trades. He's an exceptional scorer, but not the best. He's a good passer, but not the best. He's a good rebounder, but not the best. It's actually kind of surprising that he hasn't notched more triple doubles though.

Guys like Kobe, Wade, LeBron, CP3, and Howard are #1 at something. How's that for a top 5 in the NBA right now?

 

[Denny Crane]

I didn't put him specifically at 6, I was specifying a range because I don't think players are generally in clear-cut specific ranks.

I can justify his being in that range, yes. As I said in a previous post to you:

Brandon Roy is 7th in the league in PER, not very far behind #5 Tim Duncan:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holl...nger/statistics?sort=per&pos=all&seasonType=2

Is PER all there is to being a top 5 or top 10 guy?

I just listed the top 5, disagree?

Think Roy is better than Duncan? Dirk? Pierce? Garnett?

Wow, that's 9 right there.

 

[Natebishop3]

Is PER all there is to being a top 5 or top 10 guy?

I just listed the top 5, disagree?

Think Roy is better than Duncan? Dirk? Pierce? Garnett?

Wow, that's 9 right there.

I think Roy is as good, or better, than Pierce or Garnett. KG is old and falling apart.

Also, I think Roy is one of the top 5 closers in the game.

 

[Minstrel]

Is PER all there is to being a top 5 or top 10 guy?

Being one of the ten most productive players in the game is all there is to being a top-ten guy. I think PER is one of the best measures of productivity, since it's pace-adjusted, scoring efficiency is more robustly measured and rebounding is based on opportunities.

I just listed the top 5, disagree?

Nope, as I said, I don't think Roy is top-five. My using "5-10 range" instead of "6-10 range" was simply a writing error.

Think Roy is better than Duncan? Dirk? Pierce? Garnett?

Similar, yes, easily, yes.

 

[andalusian]

Is PER all there is to being a top 5 or top 10 guy?

I just listed the top 5, disagree?

Think Roy is better than Duncan? Dirk? Pierce? Garnett?

Wow, that's 9 right there.

I think Roy played better than Pierce this year - definitely on the offensive side of the court. Not as good on defense - but I think his offense advantage this year over PP was bigger than PP's defensive advantage.

Garnett's contribution is even more interesting - he no longer is the offensive machine he was - but his defense is actually superb. Given that he was wounded for so long this year - Roy played better than him.

Duncan had a better year than Roy - no questions asked, imho.

Dirk is debatable - I can't make up my mind which one had a better year.

 

[Denny Crane]

I think Roy played better than Pierce this year - definitely on the offensive side of the court. Not as good on defense - but I think his offense advantage this year over PP was bigger than PP's defensive advantage.

Garnett's contribution is even more interesting - he no longer is the offensive machine he was - but his defense is actually superb. Given that he was wounded for so long this year - Roy played better than him.

Interesting.

Garnett was wounded, so someone had to pick up the slack. Look at the record, 62-20, 3rd best in the league.

I think that arguably Pierce was the best or 2nd best player last season, and hasn't dropped off much, if at all.

Duncan had a better year than Roy - no questions asked, imho.

Agreed.

Danny Granger?

Tony Parker (22 PPG, 50% FG, 7 APG, 1 STL)?

Bosh? (23 PPG, 10 RPG, 1 BLK, 1 STL)

Dirk is debatable - I can't make up my mind which one had a better year.

26/8.5/36% 3pt, former MVP.

 

[Denny Crane]

Being one of the ten most productive players in the game is all there is to being a top-ten guy. I think PER is one of the best measures of productivity, since it's pace-adjusted, scoring efficiency is more robustly measured and rebounding is based on opportunities.

Zach Randolph had a 22.8 PER his last season in Portland. You sure you want to go there?

 

[BengalDuck]

Is Roy really a top 5 player?

Among league leaders:
Not in top 20 minutes played
8th in field goals
9th in FGA
not in top 20 FG%
not in top 20 3pt FG
not in top 20 3pt ATT
not in top 20 3pt %
14th FTM
15th FTA
not in top 20 FT%
not in top 20 OFF REB
not in top 20 DEF REB
not in top 20 TOT REB
not in top 20 assists
not in top 20 steals
not in top 20 blocks
not in top 20 turnovers (a good thing )
not in top 20 PF (another good thing)
8th in total points (Ben Gordon 11th, BTW)
not in top 20 MPG
10th PPG
7th PER
not in top 20 TS%
not in top 20 EFG%
not in top 20 steal %
not in top 20 blk %
15th in TO % (a bad thing)
14th in usage %
4th offensive rating
not in top 20 defensive rating
3rd offensive win shares
not in top 20 defensive win shares
7th in win shares

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2009_leaders.html

Holy correlation, batman!

7th in win share, 7th in PER...foundation of a pretty good argument there.

 

[Minstrel]

Zach Randolph had a 22.8 PER his last season in Portland. You sure you want to go there?

Sure. Randolph is a very good player. The problem with him is that his defense is atrocious, which drops him. Defense is a part of on-court production, which PER doesn't measure well. So that does add a subjective element.

 

[andalusian]

Interesting.

Garnett was wounded, so someone had to pick up the slack. Look at the record, 62-20, 3rd best in the league.

I think that arguably Pierce was the best or 2nd best player last season, and hasn't dropped off much, if at all.

I think Rondo improved a ton - Perkins also seemed better this year and I thought that at least during the regular season - Ray Ray this year was better than last year. PP did not, imho - carry as big a load for the Celts as Roy did for the Blazers.

Danny Granger?

Not as good, imho - his team's frantic pace skewed some of the stats in his favor.

Tony Parker (22 PPG, 50% FG, 7 APG, 1 STL)?

Just as good when he was playing - but he was wounded for a lengthy period this year.

Bosh? (23 PPG, 10 RPG, 1 BLK, 1 STL)

Brilliant start for the year. Followed by some injury and some very questionable games in the middle. Seemed to get better at the end of the year - but the real problem I have with Bosh is that he is not a real franchise player that can really put his stamp on a team, imho. This is usually a problem for most bigs that are not really dominant to the point of being unstoppable - like Yao, Shaq in his prime and the like.

 

[Natebishop3]

Holy correlation, batman!

7th in win share, 7th in PER...foundation of a pretty good argument there.

hahaha

 

[Денг Гордон]

Huh. Billups had a higher PER, higher win-share and a finals-mvp trophy to call your bluff. Granted - Ben Wallace was the 2nd best player on this team - but that's as far as it goes.

Ben Wallace had the best D-Rtg in NBA History that year in the regular season, and also had the best D-Rtg in NBA Playoff history.

There is no way that Chauncey Billups was more valuable than Ben Wallace. He put up the greatest defensive season and post season in NBA history. That's much more valuable than what Billups did.

 

[OddEnormous]

In a bulls forum... an annoying bulls fan was saying he'd take rose over roy any day of the week. I think its actually a decent debate but i think id take roy.

So i ask.... Rose or ROY if you could choose for the future.

Would I trade Roy for Rose? Not a fucking chance, and I couldn't care less if Bulls fan wouldn't trade Rose for Roy.

 

[Da_O]

Ben Wallace had the best D-Rtg in NBA History that year in the regular season, and also had the best D-Rtg in NBA Playoff history.

There is no way that Chauncey Billups was more valuable than Ben Wallace. He put up the greatest defensive season and post season in NBA history. That's much more valuable than what Billups did.

Defensive Rating only tells a small story. Drating is also highly dependent on how good overall team defense is too. I think it was either Chauncey or Ben that was the most valuable I'm saying it was Sheed.

 

[Da_O]

Can you justify #6?

How about #10?

Like, maybe I can name 10 guys better.

I already started on a pretty good list.

Box Score Efficiency Measurements

Player Efficiency Rating (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James 31.76
2. Dwyane Wade 30.46
3. Chris Paul 30.04
4. Dwight Howard 25.44
5. Tim Duncan 24.51
6. Kobe Bryant 24.46
7. Brandon Roy 24.08

Overall Box Score Production Measurements

Win Shares (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James 19.6
2. Chris Paul 17.5
3. Dwyane Wade 14.4
5. Dwight Howard 13.9
6. Kobe Bryant 13.1
7. Brandon Roy 12.7

Value Added (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James 969.2
2. Dwyane Wade 908.1
3. Chris Paul 853.2
4. Dwight Howard 624.8
5. Kobe Bryant 616.7
6. Brandon Roy 588.4

Estimated Wins Added (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James 32.3
2. Dwyane Wade 30.3
3. Chris Paul 28.4
4. Dwight Howard 20.8
5. Kobe Bryant 20.6
6. Brandon Roy 19.6

Overall Impact Measurements


Roland Rating (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James +23.5
2. Dwyane Wade +17.9
3. Chris Paul +17.7
4. Kobe Bryant +12.6
5. Brandon Roy +12.5

 

[Денг Гордон]

Defensive Rating only tells a small story. Drating is also highly dependent on how good overall team defense is too. I think it was either Chauncey or Ben that was the most valuable I'm saying it was Sheed.

Ben Wallace's D-Rtg was ~12 better than Billups, who he would logically play a lot of minutes with as they were both starters in the 2004 playoffs.

I don't think people realize how great of a player Ben Wallace was. He was one of the best defenders in NBA history, probably the best in his prime.

I think the 06-07 Bulls are a good case study. In 2006-2007, they put up one of the best defensive years in recent league history, leading the NBA in defense, a near 50 win team. That was with Wallace in a diminished state. Then the next year, with Wallace completely breaking down, the Bulls fell apart. (There was other things such as Hinrich turning into a pile of crap, Deng losing his offensive efficiency, and Nocioni turning into a selfish chucker as well). But Wallace's breakdown and the departure of P.J. Brown, which left the Bulls with a weakened interior defense is what really killed him.

Ben Wallace with the Pistons? He was just amazing then. Billups was good, but a hall of fame defensive player, was much more important imo.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Box Score Efficiency Measurements

Player Efficiency Rating (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James 31.76
2. Dwyane Wade 30.46
3. Chris Paul 30.04
4. Dwight Howard 25.44
5. Tim Duncan 24.51
6. Kobe Bryant 24.46
7. Brandon Roy 24.08

Overall Box Score Production Measurements

Win Shares (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James 19.6
2. Chris Paul 17.5
3. Dwyane Wade 14.4
5. Dwight Howard 13.9
6. Kobe Bryant 13.1
7. Brandon Roy 12.7

Value Added (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James 969.2
2. Dwyane Wade 908.1
3. Chris Paul 853.2
4. Dwight Howard 624.8
5. Kobe Bryant 616.7
6. Brandon Roy 588.4

Estimated Wins Added (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James 32.3
2. Dwyane Wade 30.3
3. Chris Paul 28.4
4. Dwight Howard 20.8
5. Kobe Bryant 20.6
6. Brandon Roy 19.6

Overall Impact Measurements


Roland Rating (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James +23.5
2. Dwyane Wade +17.9
3. Chris Paul +17.7
4. Kobe Bryant +12.6
5. Brandon Roy +12.5

Fluke!

 

[MAS RipCity]

arguing over the most important Piston that year is stupid. That was a "TEAM"..5 guys could make the case for most important.

 

[andalusian]

Ben Wallace's D-Rtg was ~12 better than Billups, who he would logically play a lot of minutes with as they were both starters in the 2004 playoffs.

I don't think people realize how great of a player Ben Wallace was. He was one of the best defenders in NBA history, probably the best in his prime.

Win-share combines both offensive and defensive measurements - and Billups overall win-share was higher than Wallace's overall win-share - and it was the highest on that team.

 

[Денг Гордон]

Win-share combines both offensive and defensive measurements - and Billups overall win-share was higher than Wallace's overall win-share - and it was the highest on that team.

Altering shots and intimidating guys from driving to the paint, and tipping out rebounds aren't measured by win shares, and those were all important staples of Wallace's game.

 

[Boob-No-More]

The fact that it is somewhat of a decision shows how good Rose is and could be....thats a really tough one. PG's ARE more desirable....very tough choice. Roy is obviously the safer bet

Really, why is that? Who was the last superstar PG to win a title, Isiah? John Stockton, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc. have zero NBA titles. Teams lead by superstar shooting guards (Jordan, Kobe and Wade) and big men (Duncan and Shaq) are winning all the titles. You have to go all the way back to 1990 to find an NBA champ that was lead to a title by a superstar PG.

BNM

 

[crandc]

Really, why is that? Who was the last superstar PG to win a title, Isiah? John Stockton, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc. have zero NBA titles. Teams lead by superstar shooting guards (Jordan, Kobe and Wade) and big men (Duncan and Shaq) are winning all the titles. You have to go all the way back to 1990 to find an NBA champ that was lead to a title by a superstar PG.

BNM

Closest you could come to is Tony Parker, and he's good, not superstar.

Rockets won with Hakeem, Clyde (once) and supporting cast. Pistons were a rarity, winning with no true superstar. Boston, big 3 and a good, not stellar, point guard.

This looks like another idiot Mixum provocation. You know the Blazers screwed up again. They only have the brightest young superstar in the diadem.

BNM, as usual, makes sense. ONe of our more sensible posters.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Closest you could come to is Tony Parker, and he's good, not superstar.

Rockets won with Hakeem, Clyde (once) and supporting cast. Pistons were a rarity, winning with no true superstar. Boston, big 3 and a good, not stellar, point guard.

This looks like another idiot Mixum provocation. You know the Blazers screwed up again. They only have the brightest young superstar in the diadem.

BNM, as usual, makes sense. ONe of our more sensible posters.

Yep, Parker is an all-star, but so far hasn't even made 3rd team all-NBA. He was a very good player when the Spurs on their last title, but not a superstar. He may be pushing into superstar territory now, but the Spurs aren't winning any title without Timmy playing his best.

Billups may, or may not, have been the best player on that Pistons championship team, but he averaged 16.9 PPG, 5.7 APG, shot 0.394 from the field and had a PER of 18.6 that season. Again a very good player, but not a superstar.

BNM

 

[Foulzilla]

Is Roy really a top 5 player?

I don't think so. But I do think he's probably around the top 10. He's more of an all around skills type guy than a specialist. Which is why he doesn't rate highly on most statistics other than derived ones such as PER.

 

[Minstrel]

I don't think so. But I do think he's probably around the top 10. He's more of an all around skills type guy than a specialist. Which is why he doesn't rate highly on most statistics other than derived ones such as PER.

Portland's extremely slow pace also hurts Roy's raw stats.

 

[MrJayremmie]

Box Score Efficiency Measurements

Player Efficiency Rating (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James 31.76
2. Dwyane Wade 30.46
3. Chris Paul 30.04
4. Dwight Howard 25.44
5. Tim Duncan 24.51
6. Kobe Bryant 24.46
7. Brandon Roy 24.08

Overall Box Score Production Measurements

Win Shares (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James 19.6
2. Chris Paul 17.5
3. Dwyane Wade 14.4
5. Dwight Howard 13.9
6. Kobe Bryant 13.1
7. Brandon Roy 12.7

Value Added (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James 969.2
2. Dwyane Wade 908.1
3. Chris Paul 853.2
4. Dwight Howard 624.8
5. Kobe Bryant 616.7
6. Brandon Roy 588.4

Estimated Wins Added (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James 32.3
2. Dwyane Wade 30.3
3. Chris Paul 28.4
4. Dwight Howard 20.8
5. Kobe Bryant 20.6
6. Brandon Roy 19.6

Overall Impact Measurements


Roland Rating (Higher is better)

1. LeBron James +23.5
2. Dwyane Wade +17.9
3. Chris Paul +17.7
4. Kobe Bryant +12.6
5. Brandon Roy +12.5

Yep. I'd also say Roy is a top 5 clutch player in the NBA, and you can't deny him being the only all-star on a team with the youngest playing rotation in the NBA that won 54 games and has HCA in the 1st round.

Those overall ratings mean more to me than just looking at PPG or APG or RPG because for someone like Roy who is good at everything, those stats might make people think that he isn't near the top... but bball is about an overall game on both sides of the court as well.

Roy is the 7th best player in the NBA, imo. As for who i'd have on my team right now between Rose/Roy, I think its Roy easily, and I think it would be hard-pressed to argue against that. But for the future? Probably a toss-up. Roy is the safer bet, someone that will probably be in the top 7 players in the NBA for the next 5-7 years, but Rose has a higher ceiling (imo) and plays the PG position, which I do think is more important than the SG position (though that is debatable as well).

This thing about his playoff debut is pretty cool as well, imo.

1) No other player in NBA history has EVER scored more points in a game that was either the first or second playoff appearance of his career.

MOST PTS, FIRST POST SEASON GAME

38 04/11/1979 Williamson, John
37 03/23/1949 Mikan, George
36 03/25/1970 Abdul-Jabbar, Kareem
36 04/13/1976 Brokaw, Gary
36 04/18/2009 Rose, Derrick
36 04/17/1977 Erving, Julius

MOST PTS, SECOND POST SEASON GAME

42 04/21/2009 Roy, Brandon
41 04/23/2007 Boozer, Carlos
39 04/27/2005 Arenas, Gilbert
38 04/01/1974 Lanier, Bob
38 03/24/1949 Mikan, George


2) Furthermore, Brandon’s cumulative total of 63 points after his first two playoff games puts him in pretty exclusive company.

1. 75 George Mikan
2. 69 Abdul-Jabbar, Kareem
3. 67 Paul, Chris
4. 66 Erving, Julius
5. 65 Lanier, Bob
6. 64 Issel, Dan
7. 63 Roy, Brandon
7. 63 Chamberlain, Wilt

 

[crandc]

An article on nba.com rates the "crunch time" player on each playoff team in order from 1-16. Roy is #3, behind Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade.

) Brandon Roy, Blazers: I want to see what the youngster does against Artest and Battier when the game's on the line and the Blazers have a chance to win. My money would be on him canning some mid-range jumper and then scowling while his teammates mob him. I think Roy hit, like, 2,395 game-winners this season. He's every bit the clutch franchise player that the elite of the elite are.

Clearly this was written before Game 2, when we say exactly what he did against Artest and Battier with the game on the line and a chance to win.

 

[MrJayremmie]

^And then there is that ESPN article about Roy being the "Magnificient-7" where the writer said Roy is the 7th best player in the NBA I believe.

 

[Minstrel]

But for the future? Probably a toss-up. Roy is the safer bet, someone that will probably be in the top 7 players in the NBA for the next 5-7 years, but Rose has a higher ceiling (imo)

You think Rose has a higher ceiling than a player who's around 7th best (and who still has his own upside left)? What do you project for Rose, top-5 player? I can't see that...I don't think he's a LeBron/Paul/Howard/Kobe/Wade type of talent.

I think ceiling is around Deron Williams, which is close to what Roy already is.

 

[MrJayremmie]

You think Rose has a higher ceiling than a player who's around 7th best (and who still has his own upside left)? What do you project for Rose, top-5 player? I can't see that...I don't think he's a LeBron/Paul/Howard/Kobe/Wade type of talent.

I think ceiling is around Deron Williams, which is close to what Roy already is.

Yes, I do. I think Rose will probably be the 5th best player in the NBA, passing up Roy, Duncan and Kobe (as he ages). The kid is phenominal as a rookie. Factoring in his age, experience in the NBA, and all that stuff I think if he reaches his ceiling (and God knows how high that is, but I think it will be very high) he will be a phenominal player. I think Roy is probably decently close to his prime, but I also think his prime will last a long time because he doesn't rely as much on his athleticism but rather his mind and skills.

I think he will definitley be better than Deron Williams. Comparing them at their respective ages isn't even close, comparing their rookie years isn't very close, comparing them with their physical gifts I think Rose also has the upper hand. And I think Roy is better than Williams (he definitely had the better year).